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coupe3w

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Tesla over $500 a share. Thought this stock was going to crash and burn?

Why is Ford only @ $9.00?

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1 hour ago, coupe3w said:

Tesla over $500 a share. Thought this stock was going to crash and burn?

Why is Ford only @ $9.00?

 

Tesla represents the future of the automotive industry, Ford represents its past.

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26 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Tesla represents the future of the automotive industry, Ford represents its past.

 

Yet Ford sold over 3 million vehicles in 2019 and Tesla sold 367,000.  Hardly the "past".

 

PS - Ford is profitable every quarter as well.

Edited by blwnsmoke

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10 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said:

 

Yet Ford sold over 3 million vehicles in 2019 and Tesla sold 367,000.  Hardly the "past".

 

PS - Ford is profitable every quarter as well.

So why is the stock price so different? Doesn't make sense..

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4 minutes ago, coupe3w said:

So why is the stock price so different? Doesn't make sense..

 

We have this debate every time someone brings up stock.

 

Ford's stock is controlled by the Ford family, so investors can't swoop in and gain control of the company, so the price is low because of that.  That's not the only reason, of course, but it's a big one.

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11 minutes ago, coupe3w said:

So why is the stock price so different? Doesn't make sense..

 

Since when do stock prices ever make sense?  Some of it is sheer speculation.  Some are investing in the technology which will be viable even if the car company goes under.  Some are just Tesla fans and don't really care or understand the business aspect.

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20 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

Since when do stock prices ever make sense?  Some of it is sheer speculation.  Some are investing in the technology which will be viable even if the car company goes under.  Some are just Tesla fans and don't really care or understand the business aspect.

 

I understand that. But $500 a share? Come on for a company swimming in debt. This is crazy

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38 minutes ago, coupe3w said:

 

I understand that. But $500 a share? Come on for a company swimming in debt. This is crazy

 

Nothing new.  I think Amazon stock was also $500/share while they were still losing money.  It's a bet on the future.

 

And 20% of Tesla stockholders are holding short positions, meaning they bought high and are expecting the stock to fall dramatically.

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On 1/13/2020 at 2:06 PM, coupe3w said:

 

I understand that. But $500 a share? Come on for a company swimming in debt. This is crazy

 

It's a sign of a late stage bull market.  People throwing money into companies with less than stellar financials because they want to try and catch the wave.  Fear of missing out.

It's obvious Tesla is manipulating its financials if you really dig into the numbers.  The profit in Q3 was almost exclusively due to ZEV credits and Tesla pushing off some vendor payables into this quarter.  We'll see if they sold enough vehicles to make another profit in Q4, but the stock definitely feels like it is in bubble territory right now.

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A lot of this is automated trading algorithms, which Musk is a master at manipulating and people that post on the internet also have a HUGE impact on. You could teach a college course on how actions drive stock prices.  Its enterprise value is 27X its sales, that is 10/15x more than Apple and Amazon ratio. (Ford and GM operate at an enterprise value of ~2.5x sales) Its a stratospheric valuation. On top Amazon and Tesla are different companies; in different markets with different profit potential. Amazon has 2/4 real competitors in where it operates, it also has high margins in its most profitable area. Tesla isn't like that, they compete in a market that has 15+ competitors in a market that is heavily regulated and massively subsidized and if you can hit 10% margins you've knocked it out of the park. 

All that being said the Mach-E is the first real threat Tesla will face (Style, Range etc) it competes in the center of the market where the base model will cost less than the average price of a new car with incentives. If it can be competitive with Tesla,  it will be seen as traditional manufactures have figured out the formula. Tesla's other advantage is that it is gathering tons of data for self driving systems from the camera systems on its cars. Now if Ford goes and makes a 3 camera frontal array standard on say the F-150 next year,  (Even if it is not using then for self driving, just mass data and some drive assistance; but major is just road data collection ) In one year they will put almost the same amount of vehicles on the road and gather so much data that by end of 2022 Ford would have more data than Tesla has. It would continue to gather more data year over year than Tesla could and would keep moving farther and farther ahead.  It would dramatically change the opinion of Ford and where it is going however Ford will not do this. 

 

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I've had many a discussion on the street (yes, that street) about Tesla. You really need to differentiate the types of investors to get a clear picture. Professional investors/investment banks, the majority are betting on the future. Those that didn't at first keep getting proven wrong when they predict implosion. Then you have those professionals that short (roughly 20%), who believe that the circus is eventually going to implode. These investors believe that eventually ebita and other financial issues are eventually going to catch up to Tesla. They can only cook the books for so long before, all of these practices start to get exposed. I applaud Tesla's finance team for the creative accounting thus far.

 

Now for the average Joe investors, this is where it gets interesting. You have Tesla/Musk zealots who believe this is the wave of the future and are dumping everything they can into this stock. Let's face it, anything Musk does good/bad is in the news. Musk is a snake oil salesman of the 21st century and he's good at it. Also, the vehicles have the popularity/status symbol to a certain demographic and have a large social media following.  In other words, it's a popular stock that people buy without knowing much about stocks.

 

What I find interesting, is that there really isn't a market for electric vehicles right now (in comparison to ICE vehicles). Tesla is the electric vehicle market. That's not sustainable, especially since they aren't making a profit. When will a sustainable electric vehicle market exist? That's the million dollar question. Will this happen before Tesla implodes financially? Can't answer that either.

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23 hours ago, jcartwright99 said:

What I find interesting, is that there really isn't a market for electric vehicles right now (in comparison to ICE vehicles). Tesla is the electric vehicle market. That's not sustainable, especially since they aren't making a profit. When will a sustainable electric vehicle market exist? That's the million dollar question. Will this happen before Tesla implodes financially? Can't answer that either.

 

Then add in the additional competition coming in from the high and low end, and it doesn't look that great for Tesla in the next 5 years. 

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23 hours ago, jcartwright99 said:

What I find interesting, is that there really isn't a market for electric vehicles right now (in comparison to ICE vehicles). Tesla is the electric vehicle market. That's not sustainable, especially since they aren't making a profit. When will a sustainable electric vehicle market exist? That's the million dollar question. Will this happen before Tesla implodes financially? Can't answer that either.

 

Then add in the additional competition coming in from the high and low end, and it doesn't look that great for Tesla in the next 5 years. 

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All most at $600 a share. Wow this stock is crazy.

Tesla Is Now the Second-Most-Valuable Car Maker in the World. Look Out, Toyota.

Edited by coupe3w

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7 hours ago, coupe3w said:

All most at $600 a share. Wow this stock is crazy.

Tesla Is Now the Second-Most-Valuable Car Maker in the World. Look Out, Toyota.

 

And doesnt turn a profit.. so what does that tell you and how much value is there when it is always red?

 

Oh, Toyota made $17 billion net for last fiscal year...  yes, look out Toyota!!!

Edited by blwnsmoke

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On 1/13/2020 at 12:50 PM, rperez817 said:

 

Tesla represents the future of the automotive industry, Ford represents its past.

Well played sir.....nasser had a point that was 10 years to early as well....only when F stock hits 17.31clams will wall street matter...they just jelly tesla is winning

Edited by snooter

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19 hours ago, blwnsmoke said:

Oh, Toyota made $17 billion net for last fiscal year...  yes, look out Toyota!!!

 

How did Toyota make that $17 billion? Mostly by selling and financing ICE powered cars and trucks (including hybrids) to individuals, businesses, and governments. That approach is a dead end for a future automotive industry that will be 100% electric, 100% autonomous, with shared mobility services a key component too.

 

Toyota is making preparations for that future. But like other incumbent automakers, there is a serious risk Toyota will fall behind Tesla if they fail to adapt their business model to the ongoing auto industry rEVolution quickly enough.

Edited by rperez817

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19 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

How did Toyota make that $17 billion? Mostly by selling and financing ICE powered cars and trucks (including hybrids) to individuals, businesses, and governments. That approach is a dead end for a future automotive industry that will be 100% electric, 100% autonomous, with shared mobility services a key component too.

 

Toyota is making preparations for that future. But like other incumbent automakers, there is a serious risk Toyota will fall behind Tesla if they fail to adapt their business model to the ongoing auto industry rEVolution quickly enough.

 

They made it the same way millions of other businesses made their money - by selling their products and services for more than it cost them.   Not by relying on selling government credits and investment capital.

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1 minute ago, akirby said:

They made it the same way millions of other businesses made their money - by selling their products and services for more than it cost them. 

 

Has Toyota figured out how to sell BEV and FCEV for more than it cost them to develop, test, assemble, and market those products? If not, Toyota will need do so sooner rather than later if they want to stay relevant in the automotive industry.

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39 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

How did Toyota make that $17 billion? Mostly by selling and financing ICE powered cars and trucks (including hybrids) to individuals, businesses, and governments. That approach is a dead end for a future automotive industry that will be 100% electric, 100% autonomous, with shared mobility services a key component too.

 

 Serious question.  In your view, how fast will it take the industry to be 100% electric?  100% autonomous?  

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18 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Has Toyota figured out how to sell BEV and FCEV for more than it cost them to develop, test, assemble, and market those products? If not, Toyota will need do so sooner rather than later if they want to stay relevant in the automotive industry.


Actually Ford, GM and Toyota could afford to sell their BEVs at a loss for a few years subsidized by the rest of the lineup.  They’ll also be able to handle volume production and delivery more easily.  And they’ll have a $7500 price advantage over Tesla for a few years.  There is nothing magic about BEVs.

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24 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

 

 Serious question.  In your view, how fast will it take the industry to be 100% electric?  100% autonomous?  

 

For 100% electric, within 20 years. In the European Union, there have calls by environment ministers to ban the sale of new ICE powered vehicles by 2040. Some EU members have proposed target dates for such bans even earlier. The EU standards will influence transportation sector climate neutrality proposals in other parts of the world too.

 

For 100% autonomous, within 20 years to get at least Level 3 autonomous hardware and software into all new cars and trucks. But widespread activation and deployment of that capability will depend on regulatory frameworks becoming optimized for AVs. Right now, regulatory barriers are the biggest impediment to AV development, testing, and deployment.

Edited by rperez817

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27 minutes ago, akirby said:

There is nothing magic about BEVs.

 

Yes sir, that's true. Appealing BEV products don't require any magic, just good engineering and marketing. Those areas are where Tesla is far ahead of the incumbents. 

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21 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir, that's true. Appealing BEV products don't require any magic, just good engineering and marketing. Those areas are where Tesla is far ahead of the incumbents. 

 

Anybody can be "so far ahead" of somebody else when they burn through so much cash they can never make an annual profit.  11 years of losses.. but hey they are so far ahead of everybody else.

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