silvrsvt Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, 7Mary3 said: At least in Southern California, a lot of effort is going into the infrastructure to support BEV's as we speak. I am sure the BEV's will become a very significant percentage of car sales within the next 10 years, incentives notwithstanding. It will be similar to when diesel replaced steam in railroading.... Southern California is about the best area you can have a BEV in weather wise. I think we might see 20-30% market penetration in the next 10 years, but until cost come down a bit more ($30-35K out the door without a tax break that might be useless to someone in that tax bracket) its going to be a little while long before that happens-People aren't changing cars as much as they used to (average age is 12 years old) so cars bought today will still be in uses in 2032. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, akirby said: The problem is battery prices - they’ll come down over time. And Mach E is $37k after tax credits. Sure, that's after a $7k credit is deducted so you're already above $42k for the base model RWD with smallest battery. Most buyers will need to spend at least $50K to get the vehicle they want. From there, I'd expect the Ford mid-sized crossover to have a similar price structure, the Lincoln and BEV F150 will have premium prices too due to bigger battery packs. i doubt that batteries will get a lot cheaper, there are fixed basic costs to supply and manufacturing that cannot be reduced, that's also why automakers are partnering to secure supply but not buying or building battery plants themselves. Edited February 19, 2020 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 hours ago, jpd80 said: i doubt that batteries will get a lot cheaper, there are fixed basic costs to supply and manufacturing that cannot be reduced, that's also why automakers are partnering to secure supply but not buying or building battery plants themselves. Batteries will get cheaper, but perhaps with compromises. Telsa and VW are already considering batteries that cost 20% less: https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2020/02/tesla-in-talks-to-switch-to-different-battery-for-china-model-3-sedans/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Harley Lover said: Batteries will get cheaper, but perhaps with compromises. Telsa and VW are already considering batteries that cost 20% less: https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2020/02/tesla-in-talks-to-switch-to-different-battery-for-china-model-3-sedans/ I guarantee you that most of those savings won’t be directly passed on, people will still pay more for more range, it’s like paying thousands more for a bigger fuel tank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Most BEVs have around 60 KWH, a Prius hybrid has 1.4HWH and reduces pollution by 30%, so you could build 42 Prius hybrids with the same amount of batteries shared out, that would be equal to 12 ZEVs. just thinking..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, jpd80 said: I guarantee you that most of those savings won’t be directly passed on, people will still pay more for more range, it’s like paying thousands more for a bigger fuel tank. They will if there is a competitive market. But how can you not charge more for something that costs a lot more to produce? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 hours ago, akirby said: They will if there is a competitive market. But how can you not charge more for something that costs a lot more to produce? Not long ago Ford said that the cost of building a BEV was almost at parity with an ICE. This is all about higher levels of profit, competition be damned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snooter Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It will all be dependant on cobalt price...ev's are goin be profit makers (premium) until they hit mainstream which should please the atp crowd...hopefully ford can pull it off...ford not building its own batteries at the start is logical thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 hours ago, jpd80 said: Not long ago Ford said that the cost of building a BEV was almost at parity with an ICE. This is all about higher levels of profit, competition be damned. Here, this link might help: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketeconomy.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Gurgeh said: Here, this link might help: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketeconomy.asp Thanks but my point is that Ford is now completely focused on increasing ATP without growing sales. It Will be interesting to see how that strategy plays out and whether those premium BEV sales simply replace premium ICE sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, jpd80 said: Thanks but my point is that Ford is now completely focused on increasing ATP without growing sales. It Will be interesting to see how that strategy plays out and whether those premium BEV sales simply replace premium ICE sales. Sorry, I misunderstood your argument then. I thought you were arguing that Ford thought it could get away with keeping BEV prices artificially high (and actually selling enough BEV products to get a higher profit -- or *any* profit if they are only selling uncompetitive products) in the face of lowered battery costs even as other BEV automakers were compelled to reduce their prices due to free market competitive forces. To date, those BEVs able to actually compete with ICE vehicles have all been premium-to-luxury vehicles because battery costs have compelled them to be in that range. It will indeed be interesting to see what automakers (and when) will be able to punch down into the mainstream auto market with fully capable and competitive BEV products. Dont get me wrong. Some luxury automakers will continue to sell only high-priced BEVs with luxury appointments and features because that is their brand. But we'll even be seeing price/capabilities competition amongst luxury BEV products because that's how the market works. Edited February 20, 2020 by Gurgeh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Gurgeh said: Sorry, I misunderstood your argument then. I thought you were arguing that Ford thought it could get away with keeping BEV prices artificially high (and actually selling enough BEV products to get a higher profit -- or *any* profit if they are only selling uncompetitive products) in the face of lowered battery costs even as other BEV automakers were compelled to reduce their prices do to free market competitive forces. To date, those BEVs able to actually compete with ICE vehicles have all been premium-to-luxury vehicles because battery costs have compelled them to be in that range. It will indeed be interesting to see what automakers (and when) will be able to punch down into the mainstream auto market with fully capable and competitive BEV products. Dont get me wrong. Some luxury automakers will continue to sell only high-priced BEVs with luxury appointments and features because that is their brand. But we'll even be seeing price/capabilities competition amongst luxury BEV products because that's how the market works Ford's BEVs are aimed at premium buyers and I suspect that they will simply replace purchases of other premium ICE vehicles it's just a continuation of moving away from low price vehicles and that's why I would caution people thinking the proposed BEVs would have lower prices with any lowering of battery costs, I think they're keen to stay above $40k without tax credits. Edited February 20, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 (edited) 40 minutes ago, jpd80 said: deleted, decided it was redundant to my earlier post Edited February 20, 2020 by Gurgeh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 And competition in luxury BEVs will not make them all that lower in price than they are now, just like competition in luxury ICE vehicles didn’t make the price lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldwizard Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I still want to know where all of the power is going to come from to charge all of those batteries. Not only where will this power be generated, but HOW is it going to make it from the source to the charging point. Remember, the massive CA fires were cause by overtaxed, poorly maintained power lines. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, theoldwizard said: I still want to know where all of the power is going to come from to charge all of those batteries. Not only where will this power be generated, but HOW is it going to make it from the source to the charging point. Remember, the massive CA fires were cause by overtaxed, poorly maintained power lines. Poorly maintained is the key. CA is NOT indicative of the rest of the US, though. Deregulation in that state has NOT been a good thing for the people either. Knowing how some of that works, electricity is one area where I feel a regulated industry is necessary to promote quality and reliability of the transmission grid. It is such a vital part of the backbone of this country. Power companies should be looking forward, adding capacity, updating transmission lines, and putting time and resources toward maintaining existing infrastructure. The company I work for is spending tons of cash adding wind, solar, and other renewables in preparation for the end of coal, and to maintain generation going forward. We are not planning more coal plants. We are spending tons on new distribution lines, maintaining existing lines, and ensuring availability of the grid going forward. We are looking forward to the expansion of electric vehicles, and have plans in place to ensure the power is available to charge them. We are in the process of working with state agencies (we are regulated here in MO) to build out charging stations along the main highway corridors through the state. I have often wondered where the power was going to come from, but having some inside knowledge has helped calm those fears. BEVs aren't magically going to start selling in tremendous numbers. It will be a gradual adoption, and the increase in efficiency of all things electrical (LEDs, more efficient appliances, etc.) along with the upgrades to the distribution and generation of power, the electricity will be there (outside of CA :)). Worst case, we start burning all that extra gasoline to produce electricity. ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldwizard Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/21/2020 at 9:32 AM, fordmantpw said: I have often wondered where the power was going to come from, but having some inside knowledge has helped calm those fears. BEVs aren't magically going to start selling in tremendous numbers. It will be a gradual adoption, and the increase in efficiency of all things electrical (LEDs, more efficient appliances, etc.) along with the upgrades to the distribution and generation of power, the electricity will be there (outside of CA :)). I agree 100% ! Too many "experts" are predicting the "end" of internal combustion engines in the next 10 years. If BEV hit 30% of the worldwide light vehicle production by 2030, I will be very surprised. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 hours ago, theoldwizard said: I agree 100% ! Too many "experts" are predicting the "end" of internal combustion engines in the next 10 years. If BEV hit 30% of the worldwide light vehicle production by 2030, I will be very surprised. Nine countries say they’ll ban internal combustion engines. So far, it’s just words Lots of legislation out there that in the next 10-15 years ICE might be banned in some cities or even countries Its coming-but the real question is when does the tipping point follow? The auto industry is normally planning 5-10 years down the road, and given the age of some of Ford's products, do they invest in going the BEV route between now and the next 5 years or let current products get even older to carry on as ICE products? Its not like the entire auto industry can turn on a dime and the ones that can't, doesn't mean other companies can make up the slack easily either if they fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 (edited) Here's the reality. Once BEVs hit 50% market share, if not sooner, watch electricity rates skyrocket. Fuelling an EV will cost the same or more as an IC engine. N3xt step is lower gas cost from lower demand. THEN you will see some stalling on take rates. So 10 years? Not buying it. Likewise, bans will be reversed as an election issue. Edited February 24, 2020 by J-150 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 When it becomes more profitable for the manufacture and cheaper for the consumer for a BEV than a traditional gas vehicle the change will happen and it will be very quick. Customers will almost always pick the cheaper option if it fits their needs and for 95%+ of the population electric cars will fit the need when that price point transition happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, J-150 said: Here's the reality. Once BEVs hit 50% market share, if not sooner, watch electricity rates skyrocket. Fuelling an EV will cost the same or more as an IC engine. N3xt step is lower gas cost from lower demand. THEN you will see some stalling on take rates. So 10 years? Not buying it. If you invest in solar (in most areas) and other things will offset that So your saying is that my electric bill will go from say $300 in the height of the summer to $600, just because I have an electric car? I don't think so. Taking a look at some of the BEV recharging options for the MME, it would cost about $42 for a full refill from one of the providers listed-not sure if this is accurate or not, but thats roughly what a 20 gallon tank at 2.50 gallon goes for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 hour ago, jasonj80 said: When it becomes more profitable for the manufacture and cheaper for the consumer for a BEV than a traditional gas vehicle the change will happen and it will be very quick. Customers will almost always pick the cheaper option if it fits their needs and for 95%+ of the population electric cars will fit the need when that price point transition happens. Given the "trends" for the future of automobiles, it appears that the future is going to be an Electric Pod that takes you where you need to go and ownership of your own car will disappear around the time I retire (20-25 years) Unless someone can figure out how to make a BEV for around 30K and still make a profit on it.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Perhaps the future is completely differently to what Google invisage, jobs and work change meaning that people's travel patterns change. What is so important that all business has to be concentrated into our city centres that forces people into gridlock every morning. Surely there is a better way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, jpd80 said: Perhaps the future is completely differently to what Google invisage, jobs and work change meaning that people's travel patterns change. What is so important that all business has to be concentrated into our city centres that forces people into gridlock every morning. Surely there is a better way. It all depends-I live in one of the mostly densely populated areas in the US and I'm lucky I can take pretty much all secondary roads on my 13 mile drive to work. However if I need to commute to the north of my state, I have at least 3-4 options to take..they might not be the fastest, but I do have alternatives. I know in other places, like California and Germany, a bad accident happens on the highway happens and your stuck on that highway for hours. Edited February 25, 2020 by silvrsvt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: It all depends-I live in one of the mostly densely populated areas in the US and I'm lucky I can take pretty much all secondary roads on my 13 mile drive to work. However if I need to commute to the north of my state, I have at least 3-4 options to take..they might not be the fastest, but I do have alternatives. I know in other places, like California and German, a bad accident happens on the highway happens and your stuck on that highway for hours. Absolutely, my former boss used to live to the north of our city and if he didn’t get to work by 6am the roads would be choked and he’d lose an hour or so, same thing going home, get lost by 2 o’clock or get stuck in the crawl. Me, I took a job back with my old company, 5 mins from home via quiet back streets and service roads, must get that Windsor rebuilt... Edited February 25, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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