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Light at the end of the chip shortage.....hope this is true....

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3 minutes ago, Gregg Tonkin said:

I didn't say it did, just responding to the prior post. 

 

No problem... understood. 

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From the chip manufacturer perspective, what is the long term outlook on demand. Increasing capacity takes time and capital. Remember a time when Ford had 2 plants making Explorer, 2 making Taurus, 2 making Rangers, etc. Don't think we will be doing that again anytime soon.

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The other thing to remember is there really is Intel is the only major chipmaker in the US with 15% of the market and admits that it is 2-3 years behind in technology. If the US is going to get out of this mess, it will have to rely on foreign chipmakers, not a good situation. The chipmaker is Taiwan, TSMC is especially troubling by throwing China who claims that country is especially troubling.

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8 minutes ago, Gregg Tonkin said:

The other thing to remember is there really is Intel is the only major chipmaker in the US with 15% of the market and admits that it is 2-3 years behind in technology. If the US is going to get out of this mess, it will have to rely on foreign chipmakers, not a good situation. The chipmaker is Taiwan, TSMC is especially troubling by throwing China who claims that country is especially troubling.

Such a shame, as the IC chip is an American invention. Recall visiting TI in Attleboro Mass back in the '90s. Beautiful facility, intelligent workers, now closed to my knowledge. 

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38 minutes ago, Gregg Tonkin said:

The other thing to remember is there really is Intel is the only major chipmaker in the US with 15% of the market and admits that it is 2-3 years behind in technology. If the US is going to get out of this mess, it will have to rely on foreign chipmakers, not a good situation. The chipmaker is Taiwan, TSMC is especially troubling by throwing China who claims that country is especially troubling.

 

Intel is building 2 new chip plants for billions of dollars in Arizona, but it's a couple years away. And Intel owns MobilEye that is crucial to automated transportation. 

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10 hours ago, Gregg Tonkin said:

The other thing to remember is there really is Intel is the only major chipmaker in the US with 15% of the market and admits that it is 2-3 years behind in technology. If the US is going to get out of this mess, it will have to rely on foreign chipmakers, not a good situation. The chipmaker is Taiwan, TSMC is especially troubling by throwing China who claims that country is especially troubling.

 

 

You have Global Foundry in NY also...they used to be AMD before they decided to go fabless. 

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On 5/31/2021 at 9:50 AM, paintguy said:

Safety Stock? What a concept!

Just the opposite of kanban.

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14 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

I suspect that is just him boosting the profit margins for his product....

No !  It will take close to 2 full years to go from a brown field site to a state of the art IC chip manufacturing facility.  Then they can start the ramp up which could take another year.

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

 

You have Global Foundry in NY also...they used to be AMD before they decided to go fabless. 

Likely Global Foundry has NOT been pouring millions in to upgrading their manufacturing technology.

I suspect one of the next big issues will be the supply of silicon wafers.  Not sure if the fans make their own or buy them from a supplier.

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18 minutes ago, theoldwizard1 said:

I suspect one of the next big issues will be the supply of silicon wafers. 


I thought that was the issue now... 

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8 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

Likely Global Foundry has NOT been pouring millions in to upgrading their manufacturing technology.

 

I suspect one of the next big issues will be the supply of silicon wafers.  Not sure if the fans make their own or buy them from a supplier.

 

The thing is that automotive applications don't need bleeding edge Semiconductors...depending on requirements. I'm going to assume that they don't need sub 10nM processes that are used on cutting edge GPU and CPUs. Its not like Sync4 is exactly a powerhouse when it comes to computing, I'm willing to guess that its roughly equivalent to a 5 year old Cell phone when it comes to computing HP nor do you need a computing powerhouse to control ABS brakes or the like. They are making the chips on more established aka cheaper processes that are competing with cheap household things like TVs or "smart" appliances, which is causing the shortfall in manufacturing. That is the real issue for everyone..the computerization of everything is squeezing manufacturing of established processes, which companies haven't been investing in, because its not as profitable as the higher end stuff. 

Even the DOD doesn't use cutting edge systems. I used to work an manufacturing plant that made equipment for the DOD and they where based off specs as old as I am! Even more up to date systems like the F-22 or F-35 are using tech that was developed 20+ years ago. 

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The thing is that automotive applications don't need bleeding edge Semiconductors...depending on requirements. I'm going to assume that they don't need sub 10nM processes that are used on cutting edge GPU and CPUs. Its not like Sync4 is exactly a powerhouse when it comes to computing, I'm willing to guess that its roughly equivalent to a 5 year old Cell phone when it comes to computing HP nor do you need a computing powerhouse to control ABS brakes or the like. They are making the chips on more established aka cheaper processes that are competing with cheap household things like TVs or "smart" appliances, which is causing the shortfall in manufacturing. That is the real issue for everyone..the computerization of everything is squeezing manufacturing of established processes, which companies haven't been investing in, because its not as profitable as the higher end stuff. 

Even the DOD doesn't use cutting edge systems. I used to work an manufacturing plant that made equipment for the DOD and they where based off specs as old as I am! Even more up to date systems like the F-22 or F-35 are using tech that was developed 20+ years ago. 

Cutting edge usually hasn't had the longevity or reliability testing needed for automotive or aerospace. Your gaming computer crashes and you lose your life in World of Warcraft. Different consequence in an F-35 or F-150 for that matter. 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

Just the opposite of kanban.

Paint, one of the few areas to have more than one day's inventory of material.

Edited by paintguy

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2 hours ago, paintguy said:

Cutting edge usually hasn't had the longevity or reliability testing needed for automotive or aerospace. Your gaming computer crashes and you lose your life in World of Warcraft. Different consequence in an F-35 or F-150 for that matter. 

 

Exactly...

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15 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

 

You have Global Foundry in NY also...they used to be AMD before they decided to go fabless. 

They also picked up the 2 fabs from IBM.  As was mentioned, they are a step behind TSMC and Samsung.

I found it interesting that IBM partnered with Samsung on their 2nm node instead of global foundries.

Micron is in Idaho, but that is only memory from what I recall.

 

Do TI or NXP have fabs in the US?  They were/are large semiconductor suppliers to the automotive industry.

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23 hours ago, paintguy said:

Cutting edge usually hasn't had the longevity or reliability testing needed for automotive or aerospace. Your gaming computer crashes and you lose your life in World of Warcraft. Different consequence in an F-35 or F-150 for that matter. 

Very good point, actually never looked at it that way. Thanks for posting!

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As a side note, we had an electrician who works for large electric company out to house yesterday, and he told us they only have about 2 weeks supply of wire left. Then layoffs begin. Wonder what that means for auto companies that use miles of wire in each vehicle. They use like 6 wiring harnesses in the door alone. 

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1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

They use like 6 wiring harnesses in the door alone. 


Wrong

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5 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

As a side note, we had an electrician who works for large electric company out to house yesterday, and he told us they only have about 2 weeks supply of wire left.  

 

I have a friend who sells stone to contractors and he was saying the same thing about masonry...they are about two months out from running out of things. 

 

Stuff that only took 2-3 days to get is easily doubling that now and selection is limited. 

 

This summer should be interesting on how shortages play out. 

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9 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I have a friend who sells stone to contractors and he was saying the same thing about masonry...they are about two months out from running out of things. 

 

Stuff that only took 2-3 days to get is easily doubling that now and selection is limited. 

 

This summer should be interesting on how shortages play out. 


When I ordered the lumber for my deck the deck boards were on National backorder from Trex. According to the company I purchased from they rarely ever see that for the color I picked. 
 

Im starting to believe there's some kind of global collapse on the horizon and it won't be pretty for a lot of us. 

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27 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


When I ordered the lumber for my deck the deck boards were on National backorder from Trex. According to the company I purchased from they rarely ever see that for the color I picked. 
 

Im starting to believe there's some kind of global collapse on the horizon and it won't be pretty for a lot of us. 

 

The recent ransomware attacks are just a test for what what we may see next for critical sectors. China and Russia are not our friends and will exploit any weakness to take it all to the highest level of impact. 

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15 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

The recent ransomware attacks are just a test for what what we may see next for critical sectors. China and Russia are not our friends and will exploit any weakness to take it all to the highest level of impact. 


Yeah well the President is buddying up to Russia (something he they accused 45 of doing) and making friends with China so that ain't going away any time soon. At risk of sounding like a conspiratorial nut job, I wonder if all of this is just a means to an end. 
 

And with that I'll get off of politics. 

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I am at my dealership to get my Ranger serviced and they look like they are going out of business right now. Zero new F-Series on the lot. Any coming on are sold according to a salesman. On the lot 2 Explorers, 3 Edges, 5 Escapes, 2 Eco Sports and about 3 Rangers from what I can count.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ice-capades said:

 

The recent ransomware attacks are just a test for what what we may see next for critical sectors. China and Russia are not our friends and will exploit any weakness to take it all to the highest level of impact. 

I know it’s hard sometimes but we have to separate out criminal gangs that are involved in ransomware from other players like the Russian and Chinese governments and their intelligence agencies. As the FBI showed us this week, it’s possible to go after criminal groups operating in Russia and make a difference….. it would help immensely if leaders of critical infrastructure would get their act together and strengthen access to their sites. Two step authorisation is a pain but it seems to stop a lot of scammers in their tracks.

Edited by jpd80

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23 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I know it’s hard sometimes but we have to separate out criminal gangs that are involved in ransomware from other players like the Russian and Chinese governments and their intelligence agencies. As the FBI showed us this week, it’s possible to go after criminal groups operating in Russia and make a difference….. it would help immensely if leaders of critical infrastructure would get their act together and strengthen access to their sites. Two step authorisation is a pain but it seems to stop a lot of scammers in their tracks.

Hard to separate out, as these nations appear to make little effort to stem these gangs. Add that to the fact that foreign companies in these countries operate as partnerships with approved local companies. Don't see that in the US. Gives the impression that in these "Iron Curtain" countries nothing happens without government knowledge. 

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