Harley Lover Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 A lot to digest: Quote Q: What made you confident enough to double your planned EV production to 600,000 vehicles per year? Was it the Lightning reservation numbers? A: Demand is two to three times what we expected. And so that capacity had to be doubled — probably tripled if we could, but we can't. Farley states what many here have said: Quote Since becoming CEO you've really accelerated Ford's EV plans. Ultimately, does Ford need to go 100 percent EV in the U.S.? We have a lot of rural customers at Ford that a lot of other brands don't have. We have Super Duty customers who do heavy-duty towing: horse trailers, people in the energy business who are towing big-time loads over very long distances. It's hard for me to imagine that all those customers will go electric in the next 10 years. They're actually as interested in the technology as anyone, it's just their use case is different than how we've designed the vehicles so far. Farley says here what we all need to watch - more battery plants are coming: Quote Beyond Blue Oval City, will you need new assembly plants as you transition to EVs or will you repurpose what you already have? Obviously when you go 40 percent electric there's a lot of optionality on the assembly side. We've announced this new plant; it's going to be a huge site, and it's going to build a vehicle we do not have today off a brand-new platform — a full-size pickup platform. We think it's going to be incredibly high volume. What I know for sure that we have to build more of? Battery plants. Interesting comments on dealers - commercial and retail: Quote Does Ford need to do a better job educating dealers on EVs? If so what are you going to do about it? Absolutely. First of all, you have to understand Ford's market representation and dealer network is very different from our competitors. We have an enormous strength in commercial. Commercial dealers is like a totally different thing than retail dealers. If you look at a commercial dealer — Brian in Cleveland — he doesn't sell anything other than white trucks and vans. And 100 percent of his profits come from service. He's open 24/7 and he does business with people all over Ohio. So Brian's dealership is going to change a lot. But the battery-electric vehicles we're going to distribute and the services we're going to sell at Ford Pro are going to be really different than retail. We're going to sell telematics services, we're going to finance our small customer's shop itself, not just the vehicle fleet. We'll have a full charging solution for the customers we'll get. We want to be the Supercharger network for depot charging. Those dealers' businesses will be more and more remote service, and they'll be heavily integrated into the service portfolio at Ford Pro. Their business will become a lot more specialized. Our retail dealers, this electric change is a big change for them and their staff. They also have to go remote for servicing the vehicle. And the questions they're going to get as we really [use over the air updates on] the vehicle are going to be totally different than the questions they get today from customers. It will be more of a kind of Genius Bar relationship with customers. Probably more on your phone, on calls, than going into the dealership. A lot of the business will be remote, the way the customer wants it to be. As far as knowledgeable about the vehicle, yes, we have a huge job to do. But we're doing that now. https://www.autonews.com/talk-top/fords-jim-farley-ev-plan-exactly-what-we-need 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Just going by the highlights, Ford and Farley have a good plan going forward-roll out more EVs and keep your business customers happy till you have an EV replacement for the Super Duty in 10-15 years. I guess the TN plant will be building the next gen BEV only F-series and not the transitional Lightning that is coming out next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: I guess the TN plant will be building the next gen BEV only F-series and not the transitional Lightning that is coming out next year. The new plant will build the purpose built 'skateboard' chassis for the pickup (and maybe Expy/Navi ?) - the next gen Lightning will move to that chassis at some point. Interesting thought - what becomes of the 'legacy' capacity for first gen Lightning once it moves to the new skateboard chassis? Could that capacity (using converted BOF design as does current gen Lightning) be repurposed for an EV Superduty? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Harley Lover said: The new plant will build the purpose built 'skateboard' chassis for the pickup (and maybe Expy/Navi ?) - the next gen Lightning will move to that chassis at some point. Interesting thought - what becomes of the 'legacy' capacity for first gen Lightning once it moves to the new skateboard chassis? Could that capacity (using converted BOF design as does current gen Lightning) be repurposed for an EV Superduty? I'm assuming that Ford is going to retool the plants as needed, sort of the same way they retool the F-150 now...one plant goes down and then the next one retools once the other one is up and running. Though it does beg the question why of a sudden is it ok to build a new EV only plant now vs. what they've done over the past 20 years with assembly plants and starting and not finishing them or closing them. Not sure how much impact EV production has vs ICE production for assembly timelines either, but the other thought is due to the skateboard design, say midsized product would be able to build quite a different amount of products on it easier? You could technically have the Mustang, Mustang Mach E, Mid-sized Explorer/Lincoln BEV and other products all on the same skateboard platform? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) Edited December 8, 2021 by silvrsvt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 45 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: I'm assuming that Ford is going to retool the plants as needed, sort of the same way they retool the F-150 now...one plant goes down and then the next one retools once the other one is up and running. Though it does beg the question why of a sudden is it ok to build a new EV only plant now vs. what they've done over the past 20 years with assembly plants and starting and not finishing them or closing them. Not sure how much impact EV production has vs ICE production for assembly timelines either, but the other thought is due to the skateboard design, say midsized product would be able to build quite a different amount of products on it easier? You could technically have the Mustang, Mustang Mach E, Mid-sized Explorer/Lincoln BEV and other products all on the same skateboard platform? As Ford goes EV, they are going to need battery plants to support the output. I *think* that's the reason for Farley emphasizing the need to build more battery plants - Ford does not have the production footprint it will need for battery output. To the extent Ford can (and probably will) use existing plants to convert to produce the EVs, it would make sense to locate the battery plants in proximity to the production sites to minimize costs (inventory, freight, etc.). The other variable that interests me in the context of the battery plants is what Ford might be doing (but not yet announcing) for raw material sourcing for the batteries. Regarding chassis use in the EV products, it was previously publicized that there would be 2 EV chassis designs - one for the truck and one for everything else (GE2?). So the current answer to your question is that Ford plan to use the next gen skateboard (non truck) chassis in various permutations to underpin 'everything else'. Now we know how frequently plans change, so it might be too early to assign any announced plans to stone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Farley gets it. Ford is going to do well in this transition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Harley Lover said: Farley says here what we all need to watch - more battery plants are coming: I would expect one of the transmission plants and at least one of the existing engine plants (looking at you Dearborn Engine) to be converted to battery production before too long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 The theme of last night about EV was the commercial vehicle aspect and opportunity it presents to Ford. EV Transit and Lightning. No other aspect of EV was mentioned by Farley even though other CEO kept bringing up his Mach E. Ford is huge in commercial business and Farley sees his biggest opportunity in EV there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 4 hours ago, FordBuyer said: Ford is huge in commercial business and Farley sees his biggest opportunity in EV there. It helps that literally nobody else is talking about it either. They're all focused on retail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, silvrsvt said: Though it does beg the question why of a sudden is it ok to build a new EV only plant now vs. what they've done over the past 20 years with assembly plants and starting and not finishing them or closing them. Ford was closing plants the last 20 years because its market share was dropping. Toyota and Honda basically ate its lunch in the US except on fullsize pickup trucks and vans. The new EVs are the first real probable incremental volume growth for Ford in North America in a very long time so Farley thinks he needs the capacity, and more importantly, the flexibility to meet this challenge. Building greenfield plant allows Ford to design the EV assembly process exactly to its needs and optimization. And this takes away pressure to retool ICE plants on short notice. I'm guessing Chicago or Louisville will need to go dark for much longer to convert to EV production than the normal ICE generation change over. Edited December 8, 2021 by bzcat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, bzcat said: Ford was closing plants the last 20 years because its market share was dropping. Toyota and Honda basically ate its lunch in the US except on fullsize pickup trucks and vans. The new EVs are the first real probable incremental volume growth for Ford in North America in a very long time so Farley thinks he needs the capacity, and more importantly, the flexibility to meet this challenge. Building greenfield plant allows Ford to design the EV assembly process exactly to its needs and optimization. And this takes away pressure to retool ICE plants on short notice. I'm guessing Chicago or Louisville will need to go dark for much longer to convert to EV production than the normal ICE generation change over. It also allows them to transition between ICE and BEV at whatever pace the market dictates. Doesn’t matter if it’s 20% BEV or 80% BEV. Both can be accommodated and when ICE volume reaches a certain point it’s stopped and that factory gets converted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, bzcat said: Ford was closing plants the last 20 years because it's market share was dropping. Toyota and Honda basically ate its lunch in the US except on fullsize pickup trucks and vans. The new EVs are the first incremental volume growth for Ford in North America in a very long time so Farley thinks he needs the capacity, and more importantly, the flexibility to meet this challenge. Building greenfield plant allows Ford to design the EV assembly process exactly to its needs and optimization. And this takes away pressure to retool ICE plants on short notice. I'm guessing Chicago or Louisville will need to go dark for much longer to convert to EV production than the normal ICE generation change over. Why would converting those ICE plants be needed if their BEV successors are being built elsewhere? Edited December 8, 2021 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, bzcat said: Building greenfield plant allows Ford to design the EV assembly process exactly to its needs and optimization. Yes sir bzcat. This is a key competitive advantage for Ford. New manufacturing facilities built from the ground up, with a high degree of vertical integration and optimized for BEV are absolutely necessary to survive and thrive amid the ongoing automotive industry revolution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, akirby said: It also allows them to transition between ICE and BEV at whatever pace the market dictates. Doesn’t matter if it’s 20% BEV or 80% BEV. Both can be accommodated and when ICE volume reaches a certain point it’s stopped and that factory gets converted. Or closed which is more likely….I have a feeling that will become obvious during transition as Chicago sheds shifts and employees, Louisville is already on reduced output, imagine what happens when Oakville starts up…. Ford was surprised with the response to Lightning, I suspect that will be repeated with BEV Explorer and Aviator, people wanting to move to BEVs faster than Ford is planning, fun times ahead for Ford… Edited December 8, 2021 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Word out today that Farley wants to build out a Maverick sub brand like Bronco. I suspect a small Maverick CUV that replaces the Ecosport and comes in hybrid, plugin, and full electric versions. You have to cover all bases as not everyone wants or can afford a full electric. But everyone wants good fuel mileage. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) Ford has stopped accepting reservation for the Lightning today, they have just under 200K reservations. Ford caps F-150 Lightning reservations near 200,000 as production nears | Automotive News (autonews.com) Edited December 8, 2021 by jasonj80 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: Why would converting those ICE plants be needed if their BEV successors are being built elsewhere? Volume. Unless you think they’ll build 100% new BEV plants to replace ALL of the existing plants. That doesn’t make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 (edited) 36 minutes ago, jasonj80 said: Ford has stopped accepting reservation for the Lightning today, they have just under 200K reservations. Ford caps F-150 Lightning reservations near 200,000 as production nears | Automotive News (autonews.com) Thanks for sharing this Automotive News article jasonj80 sir. Looks like Ford's most important new product introduction so far in the 21st century is off to a good start. Some interesting data from that article. Farley told Automotive News last month that he thinks more than 80 percent of Lightning reservation holders will go through with buying the truck, topping the roughly 65 percent reservation-to-sales conversion rate seen for the Bronco SUV. Farley says 70 percent of Lightning reservation holders are new to Ford and to pickups. Edited December 8, 2021 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 3 hours ago, bzcat said: Ford was closing plants the last 20 years because its market share was dropping. Toyota and Honda basically ate its lunch in the US except on fullsize pickup trucks and vans. The new EVs are the first real probable incremental volume growth for Ford in North America in a very long time so Farley thinks he needs the capacity, and more importantly, the flexibility to meet this challenge. Building greenfield plant allows Ford to design the EV assembly process exactly to its needs and optimization. And this takes away pressure to retool ICE plants on short notice. I'm guessing Chicago or Louisville will need to go dark for much longer to convert to EV production than the normal ICE generation change over. I get that, but at the same time what has been stated has been another F-150 plant, which there are two plants already making 500-800k units a year…are they expecting to gain another 200k units because of a BEV? That is what I’m not quite tracking- You have Dearborn making ICE and Lightning BEV trucks KTP is building ICE only as far as we know at the moment The Blue Oval City plant will be building a next gen F-150 that is BEV only. So once KCTP And DTP switch to the new BEV platform, that would make BOC redundant to a point. I guess they might plan on moving Navigator and Expedition to the BOC plant to free up KTP to make super duties only? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: So once KCTP And DTP switch to the new BEV platform, that would make BOC redundant to a point. I'll say it again - pay attention to the battery plants and where they are built (and where the new ones are announced to be built). I think it can be argued that Louisville's future as an EV plant is secured because of the location of the 2 battery plants that Ford will be building nearby. I can't see any existing Ford plant being converted to EV without a concurrent plant for battery production nearby. It will interesting to see how Ford plan to supply Mexico and OAC going forward (in terms of the location of the battery production). Something has to be done for OAC soon to be concurrent with OAC plans, likewise something presumably is planned to supply Mexico as production ramps up for MME, and EV Explorer/Aviator. BOC demonstrates Ford's ideal model for an EV plant: battery construction on site to eliminate freight costs, reduce inventory, etc. etc.. Edited December 9, 2021 by Harley Lover 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 4 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: It helps that literally nobody else is talking about it either. They're all focused on retail. GM are definitely doing more than "talking about it", they're taking orders: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/gms-brightdrop-unveils-new-electric-van-for-verizon.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 3 hours ago, silvrsvt said: I get that, but at the same time what has been stated has been another F-150 plant, which there are two plants already making 500-800k units a year…are they expecting to gain another 200k units because of a BEV? That is what I’m not quite tracking- You have Dearborn making ICE and Lightning BEV trucks KTP is building ICE only as far as we know at the moment The Blue Oval City plant will be building a next gen F-150 that is BEV only. So once KCTP And DTP switch to the new BEV platform, that would make BOC redundant to a point. I guess they might plan on moving Navigator and Expedition to the BOC plant to free up KTP to make super duties only? F-150 Lightning is mostly incremental volume. Farley said 70% is new to Ford or pickup trucks. In the long run, obviously ICE sales will dry up but Ford has plenty of time to decide what to do with the plants. Some of the current ICE plants will be retooled for EV but a few troublesome ones will probably eventually close once their ancient ICE product finally gets axed by 2030. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, bzcat said: F-150 Lightning is mostly incremental volume. Farley said 70% is new to Ford or pickup trucks. In the long run, obviously ICE sales will dry up but Ford has plenty of time to decide what to do with the plants. Some of the current ICE plants will be retooled for EV but a few troublesome ones will probably eventually close once their ancient ICE product finally gets axed by 2030. I doubt if ICE sales will dry up this century. As Farley said, many customers that pull heavy loads and drive long distances need ICE. The Rivian pickup loses 65% of its range when pulling a heavy load. Also hybrids and plugin hybrids really hit the sweet spot with an infrastructure that is already there and cut emissions significantly. So ICE will be around for a long time. None of us on here will live long enough to see the end if ever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 6 hours ago, akirby said: Volume. Unless you think they’ll build 100% new BEV plants to replace ALL of the existing plants. That doesn’t make sense. Look closely and that could be the long term plan for at least some plants Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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