Possible Mach-E related model spotted

[Hugh]

13 hours ago, AM222 said:

A potential Prius-like Focus successor? It does look like a wedge. Interesting.

The all-new Prius

In my opinion, this is an improvement for Toyota.

[ColoradoRedGT]

On 2/2/2023 at 4:09 PM, spudz64 said:

Regardless whatever it is, I love seeing spy pics like this! Reminds me of the 80’s and 90’s when more stuff was caught by spies, it was exciting! Of course we’d have to wait until the new car magazines each month to see them unlike now with instant internet access.

 

Totally agree. I really miss that print magazine era. Reading car news online seemed like cheating to me back in 2000s.

[bzcat]

On 2/3/2023 at 1:07 PM, jpd80 said:

Two thoughts,

1. could this be the second BEV to be built at Cologne, a compact crossover?
2. Could this be North America/China wanting both the Mach E and a BEV compact crossover?

 

The MEB sport crossover is well past the styling buck stage so probably not.

 

Timing wise, this is probably a 2027 model so you have to think 4-5 years ahead. It's not gen 2 Mach E or Escape or anything that is already known. It's an EV replacement for an ICE that Ford hasn't announced. e.g. Focus or Escort given the size and shape. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by bzcat

[Trader 10]

3 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

The MEB sport crossover is well past the styling buck stage so probably not.

 

Timing wise, this is probably a 2027 model so you have to think 4-5 years ahead. It's not gen 2 Mach E or Escape or anything that is already known. It's an EV replacement for an ICE that Ford hasn't announced. e.g. Focus or Escort given the size and shape. 

I think the chances of this being a Focus or Escort type vehicle are zero. Farley has already said Ford is getting out of the 2 row “commodity” business because he says margins aren’t good enough. A Focus/Escort vehicle would be low margin.  Ford ain’t doing any low cost BEVs - at least not this decade. 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, Trader 10 said:

I think the chances of this being a Focus or Escort type vehicle are zero. Farley has already said Ford is getting out of the 2 row “commodity” business because he says margins aren’t good enough. A Focus/Escort vehicle would be low margin.  Ford ain’t doing any low cost BEVs - at least not this decade. 

Well obviously they are doing some sort of smaller vehicle given the obvious evidence but agree that  perhaps not a “Focus” or “Fiesta” in the traditional sense but equally, Ford Europe also has a BEV Puma on the way.

[Trader 10]

40 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Well obviously they are doing some sort of smaller vehicle given the obvious evidence but agree that  perhaps not a “Focus” or “Fiesta” in the traditional sense but equally, Ford Europe also has a BEV Puma on the way.

It may be small but almost certainly not low cost. Maybe a premium small Lincoln?

[AM222]

6 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

I think the chances of this being a Focus or Escort type vehicle are zero. Farley has already said Ford is getting out of the 2 row “commodity” business because he says margins aren’t good enough. A Focus/Escort vehicle would be low margin.

Maybe in North America. 
 

6 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

 Ford ain’t doing any low cost BEVs - at least not this decade. 

Ford is launching a subcompact Puma EV soon. Smaller more affordable vehicles will always have demand outside the US & Canada.

[silvrsvt]

11 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

I think the chances of this being a Focus or Escort type vehicle are zero. Farley has already said Ford is getting out of the 2 row “commodity” business because he says margins aren’t good enough. A Focus/Escort vehicle would be low margin.  Ford ain’t doing any low cost BEVs - at least not this decade. 

 

There was a Ford authority article on that and I was under the understanding that it was ICE vehicles going forward, not BEVs

 

I don't see them giving up Escape market, even if they have the Bronco Sport there. 

[rmc523]

15 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

I think the chances of this being a Focus or Escort type vehicle are zero. Farley has already said Ford is getting out of the 2 row “commodity” business because he says margins aren’t good enough. A Focus/Escort vehicle would be low margin.  Ford ain’t doing any low cost BEVs - at least not this decade. 

 

But that brings up an argument of what's "commodity".  Bronco Sport, for example, is in the same segment as Escape, but targeted at different buyers than the rest of the segment.

 

So I'd say that just because they don't want to have a commodity product, doesn't mean that they won't have a product in the segment.

[bzcat]

"Commodity" is just Ford speak for not profitable. Anything that Farley doesn't think will make money and takes up production space that could go to another vehicle is "commodity". Tesla doesn't think Model 3 is "commodity". Toyota doesn't think Prius or Corolla is "commodity". 

 

If you go by the real meaning of the word, the real commodity Ford product is F-150 and Transit which are high volume and common place as the word commodity implies. And those happens to be the most profitable vehicles in Ford's staple. 

 

Ford never said it will not do an EV sedan which is what this styling buck is showing. Ford also didn't say it was ending Focus in China. It is just ending the model in Europe... like the Mondeo.

 

There is probably reasonable demand on worldwide basis for a compact-ish size EV sedan. Model 3 is clear demonstration of such demand. 

Edited February 6, 2023 by bzcat

[akirby]

3 hours ago, bzcat said:

"Commodity" is just Ford speak for not profitable. Anything that Farley doesn't think will make money and takes up production space that could go to another vehicle is "commodity". Tesla doesn't think Model 3 is "commodity". Toyota doesn't think Prius or Corolla is "commodity". 

 

If you go by the real meaning of the word, the real commodity Ford product is F-150 and Transit which are high volume and common place as the word commodity implies. And those happens to be the most profitable vehicles in Ford's staple. 

 

Ford never said it will not do an EV sedan which is what this styling buck is showing. Ford also didn't say it was ending Focus in China. It is just ending the model in Europe... like the Mondeo.

 

There is probably reasonable demand on worldwide basis for a compact-ish size EV sedan. Model 3 is clear demonstration of such demand. 

Commodity in this context means the same as everyone else.  Corolla is the epitome of a commodity vehicle.  It’s not differentiated from the other 6 or 7 competitors.  As opposed to Bronco, Bronco Sport, Maverick.  Model 3 had no competition at all initially and only a couple right now not to mention the Tesla brand appeal.  And not all brands can pull off a Bronco or Maverick.

 

Dont forget the Japanese have more global car sales than Ford and they keep costs down so higher volume and lower costs allows decent profits even on commodity vehicles.  Ford wasted too much on new platforms and new engines and more expensive features to compete on price.

 

A BEV sedan is a chance for a reset and to start on more even ground.  But I still think utilities and trucks represent better business opportunities.

[rperez817]

37 minutes ago, akirby said:

Model 3 had no competition at all initially and only a couple right now not to mention the Tesla brand appeal. 

 

Model 3 is in the "compact executive car" class. As such, its competition consists of Alfa Romeo Giulia, Audi A4/A5, BMW 3 and 4-Series, BMW i4, Cadillac CT4/CT5, Genesis G70, Jaguar XE, Lexus IS, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class among others.

[akirby]

33 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Model 3 is in the "compact executive car" class. As such, its competition consists of Alfa Romeo Giulia, Audi A4/A5, BMW 3 and 4-Series, BMW i4, Cadillac CT4/CT5, Genesis G70, Jaguar XE, Lexus IS, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class among others.

Horse hockey.  BEVs don’t compete against non BEVs.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

BEVs don’t compete against non BEVs.

 

That will be the case later this decade when non-BEV new passenger cars and light trucks become obsolete, but for the time being BEV most certainly compete against the non-BEV entrants that remain in each segment of the automotive retail market.

 

Mustang Mach-E for example competes with other, similarly sized 5-passenger Ford crossover vehicles like Edge, and with both BEV and non-BEV entries from other manufacturers in the compact/midsize crossover segments.

[AM222]

15 hours ago, bzcat said:

Ford never said it will not do an EV sedan which is what this styling buck is showing. Ford also didn't say it was ending Focus in China. It is just ending the model in Europe... like the Mondeo.

True, and Ford exports the Chinese models to IMG markets that still need a sedan, and/or more affordable compact SUVs.

I won' be surprised if Ford does the same for future EV models.

Edited February 7, 2023 by AM222

[akirby]

9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Mustang Mach-E for example competes with other, similarly sized 5-passenger Ford crossover vehicles like Edge, and with both BEV and non-BEV entries from other manufacturers in the compact/midsize crossover segments.

I don’t see them competing head to head for a particular buyer.  The buyer either wants a BEV or doesn’t want a BEV.  You don’t buy a BEV on impulse.  I also don’t see someone going BEV then switching back to Ice.  

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

  I also don’t see someone going BEV then switching back to Ice.  

 

 Its been about 17-20% of buyers...but it is shrinking as time goes on. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-owners-switching-back-to-gas-percentage-shrinks-2022-10

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

I also don’t see someone going BEV then switching back to Ice.  

 

That's true. In addition to the data that silvrsvt shared from Business Insider, J.D. Power reported last year that "Making the initial leap of faith into owning a BEV is proving to be very satisfying" and "once someone has purchased a BEV, they’re pretty much hooked." 

[coupe3w]

6 hours ago, akirby said:

I don’t see them competing head to head for a particular buyer.  The buyer either wants a BEV or doesn’t want a BEV.  You don’t buy a BEV on impulse.  I also don’t see someone going BEV then switching back to Ice.  

I would like to see the statistics on that.

[rmc523]

17 hours ago, akirby said:

Horse hockey.  BEVs don’t compete against non BEVs.

 

I'd disagree with this assessment.  Most "regular" folks (non-car people) look around at options based on vehicle size and price.  To say that people don't consider both a Tesla or a 3-series just because one is BEV and one isn't just isn't the case.  Sure some will want BEV only, and others will want ICE only, but there are most certainly folks in the middle that are open to both options.  Obviously they end up with one or the other after considering pros/cons to both, but people do consider both initially.

[rperez817]

33 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

To say that people don't consider both a Tesla or a 3-series just because one is BEV and one isn't just isn't the case.  Sure some will want BEV only, and others will want ICE only, but there are most certainly folks in the middle that are open to both options.

 

That's correct rmc523. The president of dealership group Sonic Automotive said about 4 years ago that so many of its BMW 3-Series customers (Sonic is one of the largest franchisees for BMW of NA) were defecting to Tesla Model 3 rather than getting another 3-Series, it contributed heavily to disappointing profitability for Sonic back then.

 

When asked by an analyst whether Tesla factored in BMW’s challenges, [Sonic President] Jeff Dyke answered on Sonic’s earnings call: “There’s no question.”
“I’ve spent a lot of time in manufacturing meetings, and five years ago, Tesla was just not even a real big topic,” Dyke said. “Today, it’s at the top of everybody’s board, and it needs to be."

[akirby]

1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

 

I'd disagree with this assessment.  Most "regular" folks (non-car people) look around at options based on vehicle size and price.  To say that people don't consider both a Tesla or a 3-series just because one is BEV and one isn't just isn't the case.  Sure some will want BEV only, and others will want ICE only, but there are most certainly folks in the middle that are open to both options.  Obviously they end up with one or the other after considering pros/cons to both, but people do consider both initially.

In my mind you either have a home charger or are willing to put in a home charger or you’re willing to use public chargers.   Or not.  If not it’s ice only.

 

If you’re in the first group then you’ve already decided a BEV is viable and I don’t see those folks buying a non BEV in most cases.  
 

Although I guess I could see not liking the current BEVs or not being able to get the one you want yet and sticking with ICE.  And I guess that’s even more an issue with leases.

 

To me they just seem like different vehicles and you either want one or you don’t.

[rmc523]

30 minutes ago, akirby said:

In my mind you either have a home charger or are willing to put in a home charger or you’re willing to use public chargers.   Or not.  If not it’s ice only.

 

If you’re in the first group then you’ve already decided a BEV is viable and I don’t see those folks buying a non BEV in most cases.  
 

Although I guess I could see not liking the current BEVs or not being able to get the one you want yet and sticking with ICE.  And I guess that’s even more an issue with leases.

 

To me they just seem like different vehicles and you either want one or you don’t.

 

I get what you're saying.  I just don't think it's purely black and white like you're making it out to be.

 

Someone may look at both and be hesitant to switch to BEV, but ultimately pull the trigger on a BEV.  That doesn't mean the two weren't cross shopped.  That obviously doesn't apply to everyone.  But neither does BEV only.

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

In my mind you either have a home charger or are willing to put in a home charger or you’re willing to use public chargers.   Or not.  If not it’s ice only.

 

If you’re in the first group then you’ve already decided a BEV is viable and I don’t see those folks buying a non BEV in most cases.  
 

Although I guess I could see not liking the current BEVs or not being able to get the one you want yet and sticking with ICE.  And I guess that’s even more an issue with leases.

 

To me they just seem like different vehicles and you either want one or you don’t.

Tesla seems to be picking up a lot of its sales from premium buyers in USA, China and Europe who are prepared to make the switch. A lot of that may be due to regulations coming to China and Europe pushing buyers towards BEVs but there’s definitely a transition going on….,,

 

I get the feeling that those lost sales are starting to be felt last year and more so in 2023

Edited February 7, 2023 by jpd80

[Trader 10]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Tesla seems to be picking up a lot of its sales from premium buyers in USA, China and Europe who are prepared to make the switch. A lot of that may be due to regulations coming to China and Europe pushing buyers towards BEVs but there’s definitely a transition going on….,,

 

I get the feeling that those lost sales are starting to be felt last year and more so in 2023

That makes sense - only premium buyers are able to afford Teslas.