Project T3 (Trust The Truck) EV coming 2025

[Havelock]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I think its realistic that say 50% of the market is BEVs by 2030-2035...guess we will find out. They should be able to cover 3/4 of all new car sales in 2030 with battery cells. 

I don't think we'll see that any earlier then that....I'm being realistic..so we aren't as far apart as you think. 

50% of what total sales?  I see people being priced out of the new car market or having to take out loans that are exceptionally long like 7 years.  Last year, US new car sales were 13.75 million, the lowest since 2011, and a drop of more than 3 million from 2019.  

 

When do sales bottom out and at what sales level?  The longer it drops, the likelihood of manufacturers going out of business increases when combined with increased costs from transitioning to EVs.  I see a very rough future for the industry.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Havelock said:

50% of what total sales?  I see people being priced out of the new car market or having to take out loans that are exceptionally long like 7 years.  Last year, US new car sales were 13.75 million, the lowest since 2011, and a drop of more than 3 million from 2019.  

 

When do sales bottom out and at what sales level?  The longer it drops, the likelihood of manufacturers going out of business increases when combined with increased costs from transitioning to EVs.  I see a very rough future for the industry.

 

You can't use sales numbers for the past three years because of the impact of COVID. The industry is still recovering from it, and well outside of Ford with all of its recall issues, have been VERY profitable during that time since they aren't over producing and have incentives to move products. 

[Rangers09]

4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I think many of you are just sticking your fingers in your ears and humming so you don't hear what is being said and done and are assuming that BEVs are going to be a failure...when the die has been cast already. 

 

Well, I'm certainly not in that category, as once I completed the SoR for both my truck last year and DW's Escape this year, I did consider ICE/BEV/HEV/PHEV, but current BEV's did not meet our requirements. Even an ICE F-150 won't pull our 16,500 lb 5th wheel, so the F-150 Lightning definitely wasn't an option.  DW likes the Escape, based on size, ease of entry and the space for the dogs in the back. Ford doesn't have any current BEV that meet those needs, never mind the limited range, long charging times and use of heated seats/steering wheel/cabin heater/air conditioner/cooled seats that further reduces range. The ICE/HEV/PHEV Escape all met our need, per the SoR, so with the Govt contribution to the PHEV, this was our best option based on cost.

 

We survived our working lives making do with basic vehicles, now in retirement we purchase higher trim levels, and on a long trip don't wish to balance range with starting with a warm and comfortable vehicle in the winter months. 

 

Once BEV's, or any future technology meet our needs identified in a future SoR, we will consider purchasing one, but at present, they are a long way from meeting our needs, for either of our vehicles. Based on the recent information from Ford regarding the Super Duty, it may be many years before it becomes BEV, if ever.

 

[T-dubz]

2030 is not that far away. I’d be surprised if 25% of new vehicles were EVs by then. In 2022, EVs made up 5.8% of the market in the US. 
 

For EVs to be the dominant vehicle type, I believe several things need to happen

 

1. manufacturers need to ramp up production. Tesla was 64% of the ev market. Even though ford has some of the top ev models, they still only produce a couple thousand of each per month.

2. supply constraints need to be resolved

3. prices need to come down. The average price of an EV was $61k

4. charging times need to decrease

5. Expanded charging infrastructure

 

 

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, T-dubz said:

2030 is not that far away. I’d be surprised if 25% of new vehicles were EVs by then. In 2022, EVs made up 5.8% of the market in the US. 
 

For EVs to be the dominant vehicle type, I believe several things need to happen

 

1. manufacturers need to ramp up production. Tesla was 64% of the ev market. Even though ford has some of the top ev models, they still only produce a couple thousand of each per month.

2. supply constraints need to be resolved

3. prices need to come down. The average price of an EV was $61k

4. charging times need to decrease

5. Expanded charging infrastructure

 

1.Batteries are the biggest constraint at the moment-that will almost sorted by the end of the decade with enough cell production to supply roughly 3/4 of all vehicle production in North America at least

2.That is an on going issue-not sure when that is going to be solved...maybe next year

3.Car prices are just insane...Toyota is expecting the average price to stay over 50K in the next couple of years...thanks inflation etc. I'm guessing increased battery production will allow for cheaper products at the lower end of the scale, but I still stand by that the first company to come out with a starting price of around 30-35K for a C class CUV and make money off it will be winners. I'm not sure if we will see a Maverick style product at its price point before 2035. 

4.That would be nice but I wouldn't expect this changing till end of the decade

5.In the US, that is already happening and will increase over the next few years. 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, T-dubz said:

 

3. prices need to come down. The average price of an EV was $61k

 

59 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

2.That is an on going issue-not sure when that is going to be solved...maybe next year

Have to stop quoting overall ATPs - they’re skewed by super expensive trucks and luxury vehicles.  
 

Let’s look at the highest volume segments:

 

July 2022 ATP

subcompact car $23k

compact car $26k

subcompact suv $30k

hybrid car $32k

midsized car $32K

compact suv $35k

 

And those are average prices so many sales were less than the average.  And all of those are FAR below the overall ATP of $48k and FAR below the price of most BEVs.

 

You can’t take significant permanent market share with BEVs until you can compete in those price ranges.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

 

Have to stop quoting overall ATPs - they’re skewed by super expensive trucks and luxury vehicles.  
 

Let’s look at the highest volume segments:

 

July 2022 ATP

subcompact car $23k

compact car $26k

subcompact suv $30k

hybrid car $32k

midsized car $32K

compact suv $35k

 

And those are average prices so many sales were less than the average.  And all of those are FAR below the overall ATP of $48k and FAR below the price of most BEVs.

 

You can’t take significant permanent market share with BEVs until you can compete in those price ranges.

You can when every manufacturer decides to charge way more for their BEVs over ICE based vehicles.

 That seems to be the case and my concern is that those manufacturers start pushing the BEVs and 

start restricting the ICE based vehicles.

[GearheadGrrrl]

More likely scenario is sort of like the Gas/Diesel engine mix in trucks- Diesels rapidly displaced gas in the bigger over the road trucks in the 50s and 60s and expanded down into the pickups and even cars in the 80s, but since then gas has made a comeback in smaller short haul trucks while E85 and gaseous fuels have niche market shares. In similar manner, BEVs will never completely replace ICs in new sales, and with prices rising older vehicles will be on the highways for decades. Maybe BEVs will get to 50% of vehicles in use by 2050?

[Rangers09]

8 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I think many of you are just sticking your fingers in your ears and humming so you don't hear what is being said and done and are assuming that BEVs are going to be a failure...when the die has been cast already. 

 

Duplicate

Edited March 29, 2023 by Rangers09

[silvrsvt]

3 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

In similar manner, BEVs will never completely replace ICs in new sales, and with prices rising older vehicles will be on the highways for decades. Maybe BEVs will get to 50% of vehicles in use by 2050?

 

It would be sooner than that...using 2035 a metric and the average car is 12 years old current now

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2022/05/24/average-american-car-12-years-old/9907901002/

If 2035 is the cut off for new ICE sales for most products, you'd be dealing with 15 year+ old ICE products that would be EOL due to electronics or other things. New cars (2020 onwards) have deep software integration in them, so I'm wondering how my 2022 Bronco would fair in 2042 for example, if any electronics die on it or get bricked. 

[GearheadGrrrl]

2035 isn't a hard date, it pretty much only applies to the EU and they're already carving exceptions into it. There are simply too many applications for which BEVs aren't viable where ICs will dominate for decades. And while EVs have gotten a head start in decarbonization, renewable fuels are reducing more GHGs already and have plenty of room to grow their market share... Easier to change fuels than change vehicles, especially when the renewable fuels are drop in replacements for petrol fuels.

[rperez817]

On 3/24/2023 at 11:14 AM, silvrsvt said:

More info on BOC 

 

https://twitter.com/jimfarley98/status/1639280235337117698?s=20

 

BOC/T3 by the numbers graphic.

[silvrsvt]

56 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

2035 isn't a hard date, it pretty much only applies to the EU and they're already carving exceptions into it. There are simply too many applications for which BEVs aren't viable where ICs will dominate for decades. And while EVs have gotten a head start in decarbonization, renewable fuels are reducing more GHGs already and have plenty of room to grow their market share... Easier to change fuels than change vehicles, especially when the renewable fuels are drop in replacements for petrol fuels.

China is requiring 40% of all new car sales to be BEVs in 7 years...not sure what they have planned after that

 

The problem is that E-fuels will never ramp up to the point that they can replace fossil fuels. They make sense as a secondary source for classic cars or keeping aviation going till a replacement can be found for that. 

 

The two biggest issues with BEVs is energy density and recharge time. Fossil fuels have higher energy density per gallon then gas, but ICE is only about 1/2 to 1/3 efficient vs an electric motor due to  parasitic losses in the drivetrain and the actual creation of power from fuel.  

 

 

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

2035 isn't a hard date, it pretty much only applies to the EU and they're already carving exceptions into it. 

 

Ford Motor Company is a signatory of RouteZero, and is committed to 100% ZEV lineup by 2040 in all markets globally where it operates, and 100% ZEV in "leading markets" (presumably EU, USA, and China) by 2035. Almost all of those ZEV are expected to be BEV, with a small number of FCEV possible for certain commercial vehicle categories.

 

Here is Ford's statement, jointly from Cynthia Williams, Ford's global directory of sustainability, homologation, and compliance and Stuart Rowley, President of FOE. RouteZero: driving innovation forward on zero emission vehicles | Climate Group (theclimategroup.org)

Ford has signed the ambitious RouteZero initiative which aims to reduce carbon associated with road transportation. We join more than 50 businesses, cities and regions that have pledged to work together toward 100 percent zero-emission cars and vans globally by 2040, and in leading markets no later than 2035.

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

2035 isn't a hard date, it pretty much only applies to the EU and they're already carving exceptions into it.

 

Are you referring to request from Germany that excludes ICE vehicles from ban when powered by E-Fuels.  As long as it eliminates the same amount of CO2 or GHGs, I don’t see why there should be opposition. 

 

https://www.energyintel.com/00000187-28b5-df45-a9df-7cf51aac0000

 

It will be interesting to see how use of E-Fuels will be enforced if interchangeable.  I don’t believe plans include forcing preexisting ICE to have to buy super expensive E-Fuels, even if there was enough quantity which is doubtful.  And if new 2035 ICE can burn fossil gasoline or diesel, what will prevent owners from buying the cheaper fuel.  Maybe manufacturers will bring back different pump nozzles like with leaded versus unleaded gas.
Not serious about different nozzles.  By 2035 pumps may know more about us and our vehicles than we can imagine.

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

The problem is that E-fuels will never ramp up to the point that they can replace fossil fuels. 

If E-Fuels only apply to 2035 and newer vehicles, and most new vehicles sold by then are BEV anyway, the amount of E-Fuel required may be much less than you are assuming.   We will have to see how the E-Fuel compromise is worded.  All indication is that it was rushed at last minute.

[tbone]

14 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

What are you expectations for it? I don't see it being 50% of the market (in North America) till the end of the decade or by 2035. But it will change. 

I think it’s possible it could be 50% by 2035. Technology will also progress during that time so perhaps some of the shortcomings, real or perceived, will be dealt with by then.  I would also like to think the infrastructure will improve during that time as well.  

[tbone]

14 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

What are you expectations for it? I don't see it being 50% of the market (in North America) till the end of the decade or by 2035. But it will change. 

I think it’s possible it could be 50% by 2035. Technology will also progress during that time so perhaps some of the shortcomings, real or perceived, will be dealt with by then.  I would also like to think the infrastructure will improve during that time as well.