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Ford Marshall Plant to Resume, But Be Scaled Back

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https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2023/11/21/ford-marshall-electric-vehicle-battery-plant-reduce-plans-jobs/71664207007/

 

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Truby said Ford originally anticipated the facility would produce 35 gigawatt hours worth of batteries annually, enough to equip about 400,000 vehicles. Now, the company expects the plant will be at 20 gigawatt hours, representing a roughly 42% reduction in output − approximately enough batteries for 230,000 vehicles.

While Truby would not say exactly how much it planned to cut from the $3.5 billion investment, he did say it correlated with the cut in output. At 42%, that would mean cutting almost $1.5 billion, to create a new $2 billion in total investment.

 

Edited by silvrsvt

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At least Ford is being smart about it. So many brands are still charging towards a fully electric lineup by 2030 or 2035. These will be the brands that go out of business if they don't change their strategy. 

 

The key is to focus on making desirable hybrids, ICE, and EVs, and letting the customer choose. Hybrids seem to be the best strategy for achieving environment sustainability anyways. You're only source a fraction of the rare earth materials for the battery packs relative to EVs, and you're creating something far more environmentally friendly than an ICE only product. 

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22 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

At least Ford is being smart about it. So many brands are still charging towards a fully electric lineup by 2030 or 2035. These will be the brands that go out of business if they don't change their strategy. 

 

The key is to focus on making desirable hybrids, ICE, and EVs, and letting the customer choose. Hybrids seem to be the best strategy for achieving environment sustainability anyways. You're only source a fraction of the rare earth materials for the battery packs relative to EVs, and you're creating something far more environmentally friendly than an ICE only product. 

and Hybrids are the perfect conduit in the interim to gradual conversion to the BEV future the wonderful GOVT thinks we need..

Edited by Deanh
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Something to keep in mind here is that they can just dust off the plans and add more space as needed if/when BEV sales increase.

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2 hours ago, Deanh said:

and Hybrids are the perfect conduit in the interim to gradual conversion to the BEV future the wonderful GOVT thinks we need..

Exactly, our maverick is going over 500 miles on a 14 gallon tank, so it's very energy efficient. But it doesn't need to be plugged in, ever. It should have lower maintenance costs and better reliability than ICE only, but if something does go wrong, you don't have to shell out 30 grand for a new battery pack. It's the best of both worlds. 

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

Something to keep in mind here is that they can just dust off the plans and add more space as needed if/when BEV sales increase.

Plus they can repurpose a lot of components originally designed and engineered for EVs on hybrids and ICE instead. Suspension, interior and exterior panels, they don't have to throw all of that out. 

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That sigh of relief you just heard came from Michigan's Governor.  She was sweating bullets over this one.

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1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

Exactly, our maverick is going over 500 miles on a 14 gallon tank, so it's very energy efficient. But it doesn't need to be plugged in, ever. It should have lower maintenance costs and better reliability than ICE only, but if something does go wrong, you don't have to shell out 30 grand for a new battery pack. It's the best of both worlds. 

wehad a lady that lived less than 20 miles away, she bought a C-max Plug in....she drove close to 7 months before she had to put gas in.....just came to work, plugged in. Apparently car wouls strat now and then just to run the gas engine... 

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3 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

At least Ford is being smart about it. So many brands are still charging towards a fully electric lineup by 2030 or 2035. These will be the brands that go out of business if they don't change their strategy. 

 

Just the opposite. By scaling back investment at the BlueOval Battery Park facility, Ford is effectively handing future market share in the rapidly growing U.S. BEV market to competitors, both legacy and startup. It's Ford that will go out of business if strategies like this continue.

 

Ford is still committed to an 100% ZEV product lineup "in leading markets no later than 2035", but the announcement in the OP is very worrisome for a company that claims to pursue a "global push to lead the EV revolution". 

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Just the opposite. By scaling back investment at the BlueOval Battery Park facility, Ford is effectively handing future market share in the rapidly growing U.S. BEV market to competitors, both legacy and startup. It's Ford that will go out of business if strategies like this continue.

 

Ford is still committed to an 100% ZEV product lineup "in leading markets no later than 2035", but the announcement in the OP is very worrisome for a company that claims to pursue a "global push to lead the EV revolution". 

My brother in Christ, Ford is simply trying to balance following, and leading in market trends. They're still investing billions of dollars in EV development, they're still investing in hybrid development. It's not like they're acting like blockbuster in the age of Netflix. 

 

They're just trying to balance supply with demand. The reality is, outside of coastal states, EVs really haven't taken off yet, and likely won't for at least 5 or 10 years. You can't make money on cars that don't sell, and EVs aren't selling relative to ICE. 

 

Yeah, you'll go out of business if you stay in the past. But you'll also go out of business spending 50 billion dollars on EV development when you're only selling 100k EVs a year. There's a balance, and Ford has found it. Pushing electric cars on people is just hurting the electric car cause, we have to let people come naturally to these products, and they will. But no-one likes having things forced on them. 

 

Ford needs to get the cost of their EVs down, and make them more appealing, less compromised vehicles, and they're doing both of these things as we speak. It's gonna be ok, it's just gonna take a little longer than expected. It's better to take your time and do it right, rather than rush things out the door and alienate your customers. 

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24 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

My brother in Christ, Ford is simply trying to balance following, and leading in market trends. They're still investing billions of dollars in EV development, they're still investing in hybrid development. It's not like they're acting like blockbuster in the age of Netflix. 

 

They're just trying to balance supply with demand. The reality is, outside of coastal states, EVs really haven't taken off yet, and likely won't for at least 5 or 10 years. You can't make money on cars that don't sell, and EVs aren't selling relative to ICE. 

 

Yeah, you'll go out of business if you stay in the past. But you'll also go out of business spending 50 billion dollars on EV development when you're only selling 100k EVs a year. There's a balance, and Ford has found it. Pushing electric cars on people is just hurting the electric car cause, we have to let people come naturally to these products, and they will. But no-one likes having things forced on them. 

 

Ford needs to get the cost of their EVs down, and make them more appealing, less compromised vehicles, and they're doing both of these things as we speak. It's gonna be ok, it's just gonna take a little longer than expected. It's better to take your time and do it right, rather than rush things out the door and alienate your customers. 

big caveat....BEVs need to become more popular with actual buyers, all the media promotion doesnt matter....

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Just the opposite. By scaling back investment at the BlueOval Battery Park facility, Ford is effectively handing future market share in the rapidly growing U.S. BEV market to competitors, both legacy and startup. It's Ford that will go out of business if strategies like this continue.

 

Ford is still committed to an 100% ZEV product lineup "in leading markets no later than 2035", but the announcement in the OP is very worrisome for a company that claims to pursue a "global push to lead the EV revolution". 

who exactly are they handing the market too...? Got news for you, Fords going no where unlike numerous "startups".......how many have gone belly up? Take Tesla out of the equation and no ones exactltly setting the BEV world on fire, all of the big players have quite literally scaled back....

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23 minutes ago, Deanh said:

who exactly are they handing the market too...? Got news for you, Fords going no where unlike numerous "startups".......how many have gone belly up? Take Tesla out of the equation and no ones exactltly setting the BEV world on fire, all of the big players have quite literally scaled back....

 

The thing is that in your view point the sky is falling when all that is happening is the market is slowing down.

 

Given the trends of what happened until this point, the expections that they had where real, but inflation and other economic woes are starting to smack everyone in the face. 

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40 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The thing is that in your view point the sky is falling when all that is happening is the market is slowing down.

 

Given the trends of what happened until this point, the expections that they had where real, but inflation and other economic woes are starting to smack everyone in the face. 

no, again..Im a realist...and your synopsis IMO is inaccurate, inflation and economic woes are NOT BEVs issues in the slightest, if that was the case ICE would be having the very same issues.....then again, I actually deal with the customers and hear the concerns, along with witnessing first hand the massive decline in interest of the BEVs , so my opinion may differ from some of the electric fans tooting their proverbial horns...Its time may come , but from a realistic standpoint NOT in anytime soon, and not within the ridiculous timeframes the GOVT is declaring...

Edited by Deanh
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25 minutes ago, Deanh said:

no, again..Im a realist...and your synopsis IMO is inaccurate, inflation and economic woes are NOT BEVs issues in the slightest, if that was the case ICE would be having the very same issues....

 

How much ICE demand from the lack of product from the past couple years due to covid? I've seen GM ads for 6K off ICE products. I think your going to see a slow down in all products not just EVs. 

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11 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

How much ICE demand from the lack of product from the past couple years due to covid? I've seen GM ads for 6K off ICE products. I think your going to see a slow down in all products not just EVs. 

I totally agree with there being a slowdown... the slow downs will effect everything across the board, and I sincerely think it will be marked .... but given that, BEVs have slowed down a LOT more than ICE units in the same price frames....Ive got your $6k on GM ICE products and Ill raise you to $7k on some Lightnings...PLUS low financing....brace yourself silvrsvt, I think sales numbers across the board will be telling

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36 minutes ago, Deanh said:

I totally agree with there being a slowdown... the slow downs will effect everything across the board, and I sincerely think it will be marked .... but given that, BEVs have slowed down a LOT more than ICE units in the same price frames....Ive got your $6k on GM ICE products and Ill raise you to $7k on some Lightnings...PLUS low financing....brace yourself silvrsvt, I think sales numbers across the board will be telling


I already explained this but you absolutely won’t listen to any facts or reason.  Lightning had $20K price increases.  Lightnings are usually not primary vehicles - they’re a luxury like a boat.  Can you please try to have n ounce of perspective and set aside your personal biases and look at facts?

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15 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Just the opposite. By scaling back investment at the BlueOval Battery Park facility, Ford is effectively handing future market share in the rapidly growing U.S. BEV market to competitors, both legacy and startup. It's Ford that will go out of business if strategies like this continue.

 

Ford is still committed to an 100% ZEV product lineup "in leading markets no later than 2035", but the announcement in the OP is very worrisome for a company that claims to pursue a "global push to lead the EV revolution". 

 

Come on, they're not cancelling the thing.  They're right sizing it to projections so that the company doesn't go out of business.

 

Like I said above, they can just dust off the plans and add additional capacity for more units as needed.

 

 

 

 

---

 

I think we all knew the reports of them cancelling this were just a negotiating tactic for union talk.

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35 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

I think we all knew the reports of them cancelling this were just a negotiating tactic for union talk.

 

That's correct. Now that the UAW-Ford labor agreement has been ratified, Jim Farley said that Ford is "working flat out on our next generation of electric vehicles and software platforms".

 

A 42% reduction in BlueOval Battery Park's output isn't compatible with that goal, or with Ford's aim "to lead the EV revolution" as mentioned earlier. Hopefully Ford corrects its misstep before it falls further behind with BEV.

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56 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

That's correct. Now that the UAW-Ford labor agreement has been ratified, Jim Farley said that Ford is "working flat out on our next generation of electric vehicles and software platforms".

 

A 42% reduction in BlueOval Battery Park's output isn't compatible with that goal, or with Ford's aim "to lead the EV revolution" as mentioned earlier. Hopefully Ford corrects its misstep before it falls further behind with BEV.


Why do you feel battery capacity reduction and “working flat out on our next generation of electric vehicles” are not compatible?  The only difference may be lower estimated future sales, which require fewer batteries for now, but doesn’t necessarily mean research, development, design, engineering, etc. of new electric vehicles is being delayed.  Granted, if future sales estimates are down from 2 million to much lower number, it’s likely budgets in those areas are cut somewhat.

 

Another variable that affects battery capacity requirements are future vehicle sizes and battery capacity per vehicle.  Maybe Ford expects a combination of lower BEV demand and a shift towards lighter BEVs with smaller batteries.  Instead of large heavy electric SUVs, they may now be looking more at 50~70 kWh per vehicle to lower costs.  It’s hard to say, but given lower BEV demand alone, a 42% reduction doesn’t seem that drastic to me.

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38 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Why do you feel battery capacity reduction and “working flat out on our next generation of electric vehicles” are not compatible?  

 

Several reasons, but the 2 biggest ones are.

  1. BEV in Ford's largest markets (North America, Europe, and China) are well into the mass adoption phase and continue to grow exponentially.
  2. State of Climate Action Report 2023 (see attached) found that the EV sector growth globally should be on track to meet 2030 targets associated with ameliorating the worst impacts of the global climate emergency.

As such, Ford and other automakers need to expand, not scale back, any and all efforts to produce BEV and BEV components like HV batteries.

state-climate-action-2023.pdf

  • Haha 2

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Enough with the EV evangelist fantasies, here's what's happening in the market:

 

Did a search for new EVs and PHEVs within 100 miles of my southwest Minnesota home on cars.com.  Zero PHEVs and about 60 EVs listed at or coming to local dealers, about 40 are Fords and most are Mach-Es. A handful of Bolts and Leafs, everything else is $40K up to over $100K, so price is clearly a problem. The message is clear- EVs have peaked and their is strong consumer demand for PHEVs. Fortunately Ford has a PHEV version of almost every vehicle they sell in or near production, so Ford can back pedal on EVs and profitable meet the strong consumer demand for PHEVs while protecting the environment too!

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22 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

EVs have peaked and their is strong consumer demand for PHEVs.

 

Just the opposite. In the U.S., BEV have outsold PHEV every year since 2015. Below is data from DOE for 2011-2021. While not shown in the graph, BEV sales in 2022 and in the 1st half of 2023 handily exceeded that of PHEV as well.

 

PHEV%20Sales.png

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26 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Just the opposite. In the U.S., BEV have outsold PHEV every year since 2015. Below is data from DOE for 2011-2021. While not shown in the graph, BEV sales in 2022 and in the 1st half of 2023 handily exceeded that of PHEV as well.

 

PHEV%20Sales.png

I'm talking about what's not selling now, not what EV Evangalists fantasize is selling now.

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