Ford Marshall Plant to Resume, But Be Scaled Back

[30 OTT 6]

Is there enough Congolese children to mine the cobalt for all those batteries?

[Rick73]

The biggest issue I see with PHEVs is that the economics on fuel savings favor those who drive very little and can therefore operate on electricity most of the time, but if they drive very little annually it makes it harder to recover added initial investment.  This issue has been made far more significant as fuel economy of otherwise identical hybrid vehicle has improved.  An example is the latest Prius versus Prius Prime, which has excellent 44-mile EV range, but adds +/- $5,000 in up front costs.

 

If Prius is driven 100,000 miles, I’d expect to only use around 2,000 gallons of fuel as a hybrid, so part-time EV operation would not recover added cost in reasonable time.  I think PHEV is a good fit for some, but purely on economics most buyers will likely go with lower-cost hybrid.  That seems to be the latest trend, though who knows for how long.

 

When hybrids add less than $2,000 per vehicle compared to ICE per Toyota estimate, it makes their adoption an easy sell.  And from environmental standpoint, converting many more ICE to hybrids can have a greater positive affect.

[DeluxeStang]

1 hour ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Enough with the EV evangelist fantasies, here's what's happening in the market:

 

Did a search for new EVs and PHEVs within 100 miles of my southwest Minnesota home on cars.com.  Zero PHEVs and about 60 EVs listed at or coming to local dealers, about 40 are Fords and most are Mach-Es. A handful of Bolts and Leafs, everything else is $40K up to over $100K, so price is clearly a problem. The message is clear- EVs have peaked and their is strong consumer demand for PHEVs. Fortunately Ford has a PHEV version of almost every vehicle they sell in or near production, so Ford can back pedal on EVs and profitable meet the strong consumer demand for PHEVs while protecting the environment too!

It's a pretty massive stretch to assume EVs have peaked. They just need some refinements and improvements, and consumers need more time to naturally accept the technology. EV adoption will resemble exponential growth. Demand with take off eventually, but exponential growth is slow going in the beginning. 

 

Gah, bouncing back and forth between the two extremes of EV adoption is exhausting. EVs aren't doomed to fail, but we're also not gonna see everyone driving in electric cars 5 years from now. 

[rmc523]

5 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

That's correct. Now that the UAW-Ford labor agreement has been ratified, Jim Farley said that Ford is "working flat out on our next generation of electric vehicles and software platforms".

 

A 42% reduction in BlueOval Battery Park's output isn't compatible with that goal, or with Ford's aim "to lead the EV revolution" as mentioned earlier. Hopefully Ford corrects its misstep before it falls further behind with BEV.

 

You can still work flat out on the vehicles and software, and still right-size production capacity to fit the market.  The work on the vehicles/software doesn't change whether you make 5 or 500,000.....

[rperez817]

15 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

You can still work flat out on the vehicles and software, and still right-size production capacity to fit the market.  The work on the vehicles/software doesn't change whether you make 5 or 500,000.....

 

Some of Ford's R&D work for BEV and software is independent of production volume, but due to the rapidly growing and highly competitive nature of the BEV market in general, Ford must scale up production of both BEV and BEV components at a commensurate rate to remain competitive. Just prior to his retirement last year, Ford engineer Hau Thai Tang said that the company needed to "better control costs and production variables in-house and scale production around the world with speed and quality" with its battery manufacturing facilities, and that remains true today.

[rperez817]

20 hours ago, Deanh said:

who exactly are they handing the market too...? 

 

In the U.S., market, Hyundai Motor Group (including Genesis and Kia) is one of the biggest beneficiaries. In 2023, they overtook both Ford and GM for the #2 spot in BEV sales after Tesla. Hyundai's global COO said that the company is doubling down on BEV, and that "when you look at our battery-electric, PHEV, and hybrids, our sales are growing at about 50 percent, but EV sales alone are growing 100 percent".

 

Globally, the most formidable competitor not just for Ford but for Tesla as well and really all automakers outside China is BYD. BYD Is About to Steal Tesla's Crown; Why China's Winning the EV Race (businessinsider.com)

[Chrisgb]

2 hours ago, 30 OTT 6 said:

Is there enough Congolese children to mine the cobalt for all those batteries?

The current administration is counting on it:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/02/01/1152893248/red-cobalt-congo-drc-mining-siddharth-kara

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-turns-country-documented-child-labor-green-energy-mineral-supplies-its-egregious

 

[fuzzymoomoo]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

but EV sales alone are growing 100 percent".

No shit. Hard to not grow that fast when you start from zero ?

[rperez817]

51 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Hard to not grow that fast when you start from zero ?

 

Hyundai/Kia was already in the Top 5 manufacturers of BEV last year, which was the basis for comparison with this year. So it's hardly a "start from zero" situation. ? 

[rmc523]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Hyundai/Kia was already in the Top 5 manufacturers of BEV last year, which was the basis for comparison with this year. So it's hardly a "start from zero" situation. ? 

Come on.  You know he doesn’t mean literal 0….

An increase from 5 to 30 is a 500% increase.

an increase from 100,000 to 100,025 is a .025% increase.

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

No shit. Hard to not grow that fast when you start from zero ?

In fairness, at “global” level Hyundai is much larger than Ford, or Toyota for that matter, in BEV or PHEV volume, so they probably already have much of the required expertise in place.  Even if they started behind in US, they should have a lot of resources to call on as needed.

 

Globally, data below indicates Ford was lower in sales than Hyundai in H1, but also GM, Stellantis, VW, BMW, Mercedes, and many others.  I don’t know how Ford will become a major player in BEV/PHEV globally given the intense competition. 
 

 

[blwnsmoke]

On 11/21/2023 at 4:51 PM, rperez817 said:

 

Just the opposite. By scaling back investment at the BlueOval Battery Park facility, Ford is effectively handing future market share in the rapidly growing U.S. BEV market to competitors, both legacy and startup. It's Ford that will go out of business if strategies like this continue."

Wrong

[rperez817]

On 11/22/2023 at 9:02 PM, Rick73 said:

Globally, data below indicates Ford was lower in sales than Hyundai in H1, but also GM, Stellantis, VW, BMW, Mercedes, and many others.  I don’t know how Ford will become a major player in BEV/PHEV globally given the intense competition. 

 

Thanks for sharing that data Rick73, your efforts are always appreciated on this site.

 

Among legacy automaker brands that offer BEV in the U.S. market, Ford was just below midpack for BEV proportion of total sales in Q3. 

 

[akirby]

Toyota, GM and Ford have a lower percentage due to massive truck sales.

[Rick73]

It seems to me that  European manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes, and VW initially got things going with smaller and more affordable city-type electric cars, then moved upscale from there.  Recent articles I’ve read suggest that some manufacturers may return to more affordable options again in response to slower sales.  That approach was different than Tesla’s (after initial roadster) starting with Model S and then moving down to Models 3 and Y.  In US Ford seems to have kicked things off more like Tesla than European, Japanese, and Korean manufacturers.  Not suggesting there is a cause and effect pattern to greater success (adoption), because it may be more about what sells best in Europe versus US.

 

I can’t think of relatively affordable BEVs that were successful in US other than early Nissan Leaf, though that success didn’t last long if I recall correctly.  The BMW i3 and electric Smart never caught on as far as I know.

[rperez817]

6 hours ago, akirby said:

Toyota, GM and Ford have a lower percentage due to massive truck sales.

 

Which underscores the need for Ford to dramatically expand F-150 Lightning production and also bring BEV/Lightning versions of Maverick, Ranger, and Super Duty to market ASAP.

[akirby]

15 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Which underscores the need for Ford to dramatically expand F-150 Lightning production and also bring BEV/Lightning versions of Maverick, Ranger, and Super Duty to market ASAP.

[Texasota]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Which underscores the need for Ford to dramatically expand F-150 Lightning production and also bring BEV/Lightning versions of Maverick, Ranger, and Super Duty to market ASAP.

And they will sit on dealer lots without buyers. Without buyers Ford goes out of business.

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Which underscores the need for Ford to dramatically expand F-150 Lightning production and also bring BEV/Lightning versions of Maverick, Ranger, and Super Duty to market ASAP.

A major challenge for Ford is that present electrification technology doesn’t lend itself well to pickup trucks yet, but is instead better suited for smaller and more aero vehicles; particularly when driven close to home.  Obviously that puts Ford at a disadvantage.

 

On my most recent trip from Texas to Florida, I drove slower than usual and kept it at speed limit or just below when traffic was light (had time to kill and wanted to lower fuel consumption).  Because of slower speed, I was passed by 7~8 BEVs, all going 75~80 MPH, and every single one was a Tesla Model 3 or Y as far as I could tell.  If there were other BEVs I didn’t notice them.

 

It seems to me that most pickups driven normally at high speeds would suffer significant range reduction, making it a bad match unless battery is increased to around 200 kWh or more, which then adds a lot of cost and weight, also reducing cargo capacity.

[Texasota]

36 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

A major challenge for Ford is that present electrification technology doesn’t lend itself well to pickup trucks yet, but is instead better suited for smaller and more aero vehicles; particularly when driven close to home.  Obviously that puts Ford at a disadvantage.

 

On my most recent trip from Texas to Florida, I drove slower than usual and kept it at speed limit or just below when traffic was light (had time to kill and wanted to lower fuel consumption).  Because of slower speed, I was passed by 7~8 BEVs, all going 75~80 MPH, and every single one was a Tesla Model 3 or Y as far as I could tell.  If there were other BEVs I didn’t notice them.

 

It seems to me that most pickups driven normally at high speeds would suffer significant range reduction, making it a bad match unless battery is increased to around 200 kWh or more, which then adds a lot of cost and weight, also reducing cargo capacity.

Spot on. But they are a good match for PHEVs that allows pickups to perform well in city and highway. I expect the Ranger PHEV will be popular and Ford will be challenged to meet the demand.

[jpd80]

On 11/23/2023 at 5:41 AM, rperez817 said:

 

Some of Ford's R&D work for BEV and software is independent of production volume, but due to the rapidly growing and highly competitive nature of the BEV market in general, Ford must scale up production of both BEV and BEV components at a commensurate rate to remain competitive. Just prior to his retirement last year, Ford engineer Hau Thai Tang said that the company needed to "better control costs and production variables in-house and scale production around the world with speed and quality" with its battery manufacturing facilities, and that remains true today.

In order to justify rapid ramp up of battery production and BEV assembly, you first must have demand from buyers.

In the  last three to  six months, Ford’s BEV demand has collapsed and those 200K reservation numbers are gone

and with it, the justification for building that massive BOC plant is evaporating right before Jim Farley’s flaming  eyes.

 

So yeah, Ford is taking a giant breath until it works out how or if the expected volumes of BEV production is actually needed in two years time. A sensible, prudent decision for Ford’s senior

management to do given current economic climate.

Important to remember here, Ford is not cancelling production volume, it is simply taking a more

measured approach to a future ramp up. There’s currently over 14,500 unsold Mach Es and over

6,000 unsold Lightnings in dealer inventory, Ford is trying to preserve its premium pricing by avoiding

big cash incentives. So the plan is to slow production for now and pray that interest form buyers returns.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by jpd80

[jpd80]

6 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Which underscores the need for Ford to dramatically expand F-150 Lightning production and also bring BEV/Lightning versions of Maverick, Ranger, and Super Duty to market ASAP.

Best guess at the moment, none of those are planned to arrive before 2028,

Ford has heavily prioritised next Gen BEV F150 that it’s dominating everything

but given the collapse in interest, maybe Ford has to rethink the balance of its plan.

 

The reason that Ford is slowing its battery plant by 43% is due to several reasons but the

main one is the sleek aero 3- row Utilities  planned for Oakville have been poorly received

in research clinics. Ford is ignoring that and intends to just lower expected sales projections

instead of selling a boxy three row that buyers want- they actually redesigned away from that.

Edited November 25, 2023 by jpd80

[Oac98]

14 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Best guess at the moment, none of those are planned to arrive before 2028,

Ford has heavily prioritised next Gen BEV F150 that it’s dominating everything

but given the collapse in interest, maybe Ford has to rethink the balance of its plan.

 

The reason that Ford is slowing its battery plant by 43% is due to several reasons but the

main one is the sleek aero 3- row Utilities  planned for Oakville have been poorly received

in research clinics. Ford is ignoring that and intends to just lower expected sales projections

instead of selling a boxy three row that buyers want- they actually redesigned away from that.

So why on earth is Ford forcing out products that may bomb?? I don’t get it! 

[silvrsvt]

55 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

So why on earth is Ford forcing out products that may bomb?? I don’t get it! 

Because all your going on is people’s options…I’m sure the same was said about the 1986 Taurus too. 

[Chrisgb]

23 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

So why on earth is Ford forcing out products that may bomb?? I don’t get it! 

Maybe they think the aero 3-row will be the next Gen 1 Taurus. A front wheel drive, with no grille, and rounded corners. Back in '85, "Frumpy Angular" was the trend. Cars like the Plymouth Caravelle, Chevrolet Celebrity, and Ford's own LTD ('83-'86 midsize). That car turned out pretty well, but I think I'm not alone in growing tired of steeply raked windshields and 3-acre heatsink dashboards.