I think we'll see something in the US market around 2030ish, but it'll be based on UEV. Some time ago, Farley said he didn't want to let products like the civic or Kia cars dominate the middle of the market. But said instead of making a hybrid civic rival, he wanted to put that team on UEV instead.    Which makes sense, UEV has a ton of potential, and it's more future proofed against these back and forth regulation changes.  Not to mention people who toured the UEV design studio said there were 5 or so designs under tarps, most trucks and utilities, but 1 was clearly a hot hatch or sedan. There was also a rally racing escort in the design studio for inspiration.    A rally racing inspired escort on UEV would get Ford back into the hatch space, but in a way that was more exciting and leaned into the passion product strat. My guess is we'll get fathom, a few additional utilities, and then a car form factor once those have been released.  

Do you believe this means we'll see Ford return with car form factors extending beyond mustang? It seemed like even up until the end, the issue with Ford's cars wasn't sales volume as much as it was actual profit margins. The volume was still substantial with things like fusion even if it had declined over time. But it just wasn't profitable.    Maybe with this new rally racing inspired direction Ford of Europe is getting, we could get some cool sedans or hatchbacks related to that ethos that are more feasible as these regulations get rolled back. 

It is the unadjusted city and highway combined so 54 mpg cafe is closer to 37 mpg window sticker.     But you guys are still missing the point.  Under the old footprint sliding scale a small car had a much higher target that was very difficult to obtain at a reasonable price.  A RAV4 target is way lower than a Fiesta and easier to meet.  But they realized that consumers need larger vehicles and trucks and they couldn't hold them to the same standard thus the footprint scale.  The unintended consequences is that once the target for small cars became too difficult to meet the mfrs just stopped making them.  Lowering the standards to 2015 levels makes it far easier to meet the standard and ALLOWS mfrs the OPTION to bring back vehicles that are smaller and cheaper than their current lineup.  Not $19k but definitely in the $20ks.  Wife's aunt just bought a Buick Envista suv for $26k.  

Here's the latest 2027 F-150 order guide including the new Carhartt Edition. Don't know when it will be available as it says Late Availability.  2027 F-150 Order Guide.pdf

IIRC the 50 MPG target was using the CAFE standards from the 1970s, which on the actual sticker, would be anywhere from 20-25% lower in real world usage. I think that is the one fact that everyone gets their axle wrapped around.    Here is the thing, it is just about impossible to make an affordable car that is profitable using that metric. The unfortunate fact is that EVERYTHING is more expensive, and to expect say a 2030 Focus type sedan to cost the same and be profitable as a 2005 Focus is insanity.    I think the 30-40K market is the "affordable" market that auto makers can make a profit and offer products that appeal to people. 

They may be cheaper but will they be cheap enough to really drive sales, profitable sales at that. You want to make cheaper cars, then you’re likely going to need lower safety standards at that size. Even then it may take the Chinese makers entering the market to actually get cars under $20k again.    I am curious if Ford will have a “cheap”sedan or hatch available in under 24 months or if once again they are late to the party. The Japanese and Korean manufacturers have small cars still available and in other markets. Ford has mostly abandoned those segments. 

How do you build an affordable Fiesta sized vehicle that gets 56 mpg?   Or a Focus that gets 50 mpg?  Even with hybrid powertrains that's hard to do and expensive. But hitting 35-40 mpg is doable.  That's the change.

Hi everyone, With the recent Carhartt Edition announcement this week, did Ford release an updated 2027 F-150 Order Guide reflecting this new package/trim, or is Job 1/Job 2 ordering for it coming at a later date? Any insight from dealership members or insiders would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

CAFE isn’t why vehicles are more expensive, although it certainly has a lot to do with why they are larger due to the footprint rule. Increased safety standards and required features like backup cameras are much more at fault for why it is just simply challenging to make something like the Ford Focus profitably without totally spartan interiors. Size on the other hand isn’t very expensive to do especially since you have to do it anyway for safety.    CAFE’s didn’t kill cheaper cars, it just didn’t prevent it. If smaller size was feasible with safety tech and was cheaper, we would see movement towards that. Instead, we see Ford do stuff like the 100A Explorer and base trim Maverick hybrid.      Hard to fit this thought coherently into my post, but you should consider how in Europe despite no CAFE and smaller car sizes, they are relatively more expensive. Using French prices because I can’t read the other websites, a Toyota Corolla is $34,350 MSRP in France starting and is around $26,800 MSRP in the US for the equivalent SE model (sans hybrid). If Toyota is just more expensive over there, the cheaper Renault Clio still clocks in at ~$28k. A ST-Line Escape Hybrid costs $37,860 MSRP in France and $35k MSRP in the US, the French price would get you a Platinum hybrid in America. This is how much you have to charge for these cars to be profitable, and the American market just isn’t willing to go for a Ford Focus hatchback at like $28k. They would absolutely go for a Maverick at that price though.

So why were consumers buying small cars in 2015 when CAFE was close to 36%?  This doesn't incentivize buying small cars it stops penalizing mfrs from building them.  Low costs and higher mpg is plenty of incentive for customers.