Ford Motor Company: January 2009 Sales

[papilgee4evaeva]

 

OK, those were funny. :D

[Bored of Pisteon]

A good friend of mine said the exact same thing yesterday. He is a hardcore Honda man and loves most everything about the Japanese and even he can see it. I was quite shocked to learn that he hates Toyota and Subaru almost as much as I do. He hates Toyota because it's bigger than Honda, lol, but the Subaru thing is alot deeper, he bought an 09 Outback and it was a pile of crap, that didnt bother him as much as how bad he was treated by Subaru. I'm glad Toyota appears to be self destructing, there are alot of smug, self righteous people that I want to see eat their own words.

 

So do I... SO DO I!

 

These pretenious Toyota driving assholes are in for a rude awakening and a well deserved bitchslap.

[mlhm5]

And yet you've still to provide any proof that the numbers Ford is estimating are on the high side of risk or the low side. Until you do that, all of your blathering about their failed restructuring plans is all conjecture.

 

Let it go, and we'll re-visit this in 6 months. It's pointless for you to continue babbling on about what MIGHT happen when you are obviously far more clueless than those who are actually putting together the restructuring plans. After all, you're the one who said Ford's lack of clean diesels in 2008 and 2009 would be the end of them. Where are Honda's and Toyota's clean diesels in 2008 and 2009 again??

 

If you are projecting domestic industry wide sales of 11.5- 12.5MM, then Ford is basing its revenue projections on the per cent of that number of units Ford thinks it will sell.

 

If the total revenue available decreases by $37.5 billion, Ford's per cent of the total revenue does not stay the same or increase, it decreases.

 

I think Ford should redo their projections based on the industry consensus or explain why anyone should believe their projection, which is 1MM units higher.

[NickF1011]

If you are projecting domestic industry wide sales of 11.5- 12.5MM, then Ford is basing its revenue projections on the per cent of that number of units Ford thinks it will sell.

 

If the total revenue available decreases by $37.5 billion, Ford's per cent of the total revenue does not stay the same or increase, it decreases.

 

I think Ford should redo their projections based on the industry consensus or explain why anyone should believe their projection, which is 1MM units higher.

 

It's a good thing Ford doesn't care what you think. If they had listened to all your ideas for the past year, they would have been out of business already.

 

And seriously, you need to learn the difference between revenue and profit. They are not directly related, so even if revenue is below estimates, that doesn't necessarily mean that profit margin will reflect a similar difference.

Edited February 5, 2009 by NickF1011

[Michael Reynolds]

If you are projecting domestic industry wide sales of 11.5- 12.5MM, then Ford is basing its revenue projections on the per cent of that number of units Ford thinks it will sell.

 

If the total revenue available decreases by $37.5 billion, Ford's per cent of the total revenue does not stay the same or increase, it decreases.

 

I think Ford should redo their projections based on the industry consensus or explain why anyone should believe their projection, which is 1MM units higher.

 

What makes you an expert here? As pointed out above, you have been wrong on so many levels yet you continue to post un-documented nonsense. So my question is why?

[silvrsvt]

What makes you an expert here? As pointed out above, you have been wrong on so many levels yet you continue to post un-documented nonsense. So my question is why?

 

 

hes bored/a moron?

[elkarlo]

Your a pessimistic lot nowadays. Look on the bright side. If GM has to kill off some brands to get it's handout from Government then some of those sales will head Ford's way. And if Chrysler just went bust even better for Ford. Don't worry be happy! Chill....

 

In all honesty I think the disturbing thing about this is that in "restructuring" the likes of GM thousands of Jobs will have to go and many factories close down..... in a severe recession. Not good is it...

 

Or if Chry goes Fiat. i think some of the "buy American" people will finally bail on it. Which they should have when Mercedes owned it. ANyhow I can see some people, especailly truck buyers bailing.

[snooter]

its fords lack of offering free donuts and hot chocolate along with HD big screen tele and other free shit like yoda does....ford does that its good for at least a million sales......my wait on ford is this....off roader and 4 wheeler mag gave ford f150 3rd place just ahead of the suzuki behind the ram and 2 slots behind the hummer...and....new models with old PT just aint goin cut-it..im waiting till the new PT's come out..what has ford done right lately?...i dunno..may be they should tell us in some new blitz with marketing..you know....push world class on us then try and sell me a pinto.....on the plus plus side...2010 mustang has a wonderful nip-tuck appearance....just waiting on new PT's...mulally is the guy...just gotta hold on for another 24months somehow

[snooter]

its fords lack of offering free donuts and hot chocolate along with HD big screen tele and other free shit like yoda does....ford does that its good for at least a million sales......my wait on ford is this....off roader and 4 wheeler mag gave ford f150 3rd place just ahead of the suzuki behind the ram and 2 slots behind the hummer...and....new models with old PT just aint goin cut-it..im waiting till the new PT's come out..what has ford done right lately?...i dunno..may be they should tell us in some new blitz with marketing..you know....push world class on us then try and sell me a pinto.....on the plus plus side...2010 mustang has a wonderful nip-tuck appearance....just waiting on new PT's...mulally is the guy...just gotta hold on for another 24months somehow

 

PS: on the cream your panties front..i just bought a neat old 1973 honda ST90......so i've been busy getting that bike going which has given you all a nice break from "snooter-logic"

[rmc523]

Exactly!

 

If Ford is wrong in their prediction of domestic industry wide sales, it will significantly affect their restructuring plans.

 

As late as Jan 24,2009, Ford was forecasting sales of 12-12.5MM, so they have retreated from that number down to 11.5MM - 12.5MM.

 

"From everything we see, it will stay kind of flat," Mulally said. "We think 12 to 12.5 million is reasonable." - Det News

 

"Ford’s latest auto-market forecast for a range of 11.5 million to 12.5 million vehicles is about 1 million units more than the industry consensus." - Bloomberg

 

IIRC, didn't Ford/Mulally also present 3-4 separate sales predictions as well as plans for each of those predictions?

[jpd80]

IIRC, didn't Ford/Mulally also present 3-4 separate sales predictions as well as plans for each of those predictions?

I think he indicated the first six months would be low and recovery later in 2009.

[rmc523]

I think he indicated the first six months would be low and recovery later in 2009.

 

I'm referring to the actual sales numbers, where there were a couple different predictions:

 

there was one in the 11-12 million range, and I think there may've been one above and one below that.

[jpd80]

I'm referring to the actual sales numbers, where there were a couple different predictions:

 

there was one in the 11-12 million range, and I think there may've been one above and one below that.

Yes he did, I have a link to the Ford pdf: HERE

Excerpt you are interested in is on pages 22 and 23.

 

In a nutshell,

2009 = 12.5 million vehicles, Ford needs no Government help

2009 = 11.0 million vehicles, Ford will ask for $9 Billion

2009 = 10.5 million vehicles, Ford will ask for $13 billion (layoffs and plant closures)

Automotive Industry Sales at “Slightly Improved Rates”

These are the assumptions on which our Plan is based and which are supported

by modeling recoveries from past deep recessions.

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales (mils.)*

2009 = 12.5, 2010 = 14.5, 2011 = 15.5

*includes medium and heavy duty trucks

This forecast is based on an economic cycle similar to the early 1980’s with a

peak-to-trough real GDP decline of 2 to 2.5%. Overall, our GDP assumptions are

generally consistent with the ranges released by the Federal Reserve on

November 18, 2008. This vehicle sales forecast includes four years of

consecutive declines in vehicle ownership (per driving age person), the longest

reversal of this trend. Total sales remain 10-15% below trend in 2010. We

believe that the enactment of a successful stimulus package has the potential to

generate demand in excess of this forecast.

Based on this forecast, we have sufficient resources through the business plan

period to fund our substantial investment in product and fuel economy

improvement plans and maintain our VEBA funding plans. The recent declines in

the stock market, however, have reduced our U.S. pension funding levels. Based

on the average rate of return that we expect to realize longer term as opposed to

returns that have historically been realized coming out of a recession, this would

require additional contributions of $3-$4 billion starting in 2010. In addition, the

continuing uncertainty in the credit markets jeopardizes our funding plans for our

credit company; requiring up to $4 billion of incremental capital to replace debt

that we presently can not raise. Further, given the increasing uncertainty of the

economic environment, we believe it would be prudent to plan for an additional

$2-$3 billion for balance sheet restructuring or for further industry declines (equal

to a decline in industry volumes by about 2-3 million units over the 2009-2011

planning period -- the sensitivity of our cash to changes in industry volume is

about $1 billion per 1 million change in unit volume).

Based on the substantial fuel economy investments included in our plan, we

expect to receive up to $5 billion of DoE funds through 2011 based on the full

amount requested as part of our November 11, 2008 submission. Assuming this

level of DoE funding, availability of incremental funds of up to $4-$6 billion

through 2011 would be required to provide protection against the above issues.

If our Plan were to materialize, we believe we would only need a government

credit line of $6 billion, again only to be accessed if and to the extent needed.

 

Automotive Industry Sales at “Current Rates”

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales (mils.)

2009 = 11.0, 2010 = 12.5, 2011 = 14.0

This forecast is based on an economic cycle worse than the early 1980’s and a

recession that persists through all of 2009. The peak-to-trough real GDP decline

would be about 3%. In this scenario, the median age of cars would rise to well

above 10 years (up from only 8 years earlier this decade) as consumers stop

replacing vehicles. The cumulative reduction of 5 million industry units from our

Plan levels would increase our funding needs to up to $9 billion.

 

Automotive Industry Sales at “Worse Rates”

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales (mils.)

2009 = 10.5, 2010 = 11.0, 2011 = 12.0

This forecast is based on prolonged economic slump that persists into 2010. In

this case, significant monetary and fiscal policy easing does not provide any

stimulus to consumer and business spending. The downturn would be the worst

on record in the post depression period. The cumulative reduction of 9 million

industry units would increase our funding needs to up to $13 billion.

The incremental funding under these scenarios would cover working capital

requirements and additional restructuring actions (including personnel layoffs and

plant closings).

[rmc523]

Yes he did, I have a link to the Ford pdf: HERE

Excerpt you are interested in is on pages 22 and 23.

 

In a nutshell,

2009 = 12.5 million vehicles, Ford needs no Government help

2009 = 11.0 million vehicles, Ford will ask for $9 Billion

2009 = 10.5 million vehicles, Ford will ask for $13 billion (layoffs and plant closures)

 

Thanks jpd....that's exactly what I was referring to.

[jpd80]

Thanks jpd....that's exactly what I was referring to.

You're welcome.

 

Just be aware that if the economy turns that sour that Ford needs $13 billion,

what on earth are GM and Chrysler going to do, ask for 50% more funding?

 

The US government is insisting they both pay back loans by 2011, that's inside two years away.....

By my calculations, GM can't turn that kind of profit without mugging all of its customers in the car park