Ramifications for Ford of U.S.'s new Mileage Rules

[Harley Lover]

With a fleet target of 35 mpg for 2016, what influence will this have on Ford's product line and product development? For example, does the KA become a more likely candidate for NA because of this change in regs?

 

Given that work is probably happening today on products due in 2012, this only gives Ford 4 years to build any changes into their planning cycle. What changes might occur in the product mix - more hybrids and electrics (if they can be sold)? I'd really like to read everyone's thoughts - I'm sure Ford has been planning for this possibility, as obviously Mullaly has already started the company down a path that will make it easier for Ford to meet the requirements. Nonetheless, it would seem that this agreement would influence Ford's product plans, and that's what I'd like to discuss. Your thoughts?

Edited May 19, 2009 by Harley Lover

[lfeg]

Ford can meet the proposed regs without much of a stretch, but will the consumer buy the product?

Small will be in, as in small engines and small cars. Ecoboost, Econetic, eco whatever, the best way to reduce fuel use is to reduce weight and reduce power available. Imagine an across the board cut of 40% of horsepower in all base engines. That, along with a general 30% weight reduction in the fleet will keep them on target. We have done this before, so we can do it again. But, will we like it?

[mettech]

Ford can meet the proposed regs without much of a stretch, but will the consumer buy the product?

Small will be in, as in small engines and small cars. Ecoboost, Econetic, eco whatever, the best way to reduce fuel use is to reduce weight and reduce power available. Imagine an across the board cut of 40% of horsepower in all base engines. That, along with a general 30% weight reduction in the fleet will keep them on target. We have done this before, so we can do it again. But, will we like it?

 

Not sure that will be so easy. Here is the list that currently meet the requirement:

 

Brand/Model Highway MPG

 

Toyota Prius 45

 

Honda Civic Hybrid 45

 

Smart car 41

 

Volkswagen Jetta Diesel 41

 

Mini Cooper 37

 

Mini Clubman 37

 

Pontiac G5 XFE 37

 

Chevy Cobalt XFE 37

 

Ford Fusion Hybrid 36

 

Honda Civic CNG 36

 

Toyota Yaris 36

 

 

:reading:

[lfeg]

If you look at the "as equipped" models you list, it looks difficult. But, you must change your perceptions. For a small family car, think Chevy Aveo modified and equipped as such: 0.7 liter engine, pressure charged and tuned for maximum efficiency delivering about 40 hp. 5 or 6 speed manumatic transmission with a very tall final drive ratio. Complete undercar aero package to minimize drag (this will require a reduced travel suspension). Lightened body structure, and reduced content to lower weight, a target curb weight of below 2000 lb.

 

This is all doable within the timeframe, and would give good fuel economy numbers. But I would not buy one. That is where government coersion comes in. Think mandatory scrappage programs for anything over 10 years old and similar efforts.

[lfeg]

Hey, I know of people driving old Geo Metros getting near 50 mpg on the road as we speak. Tiny, tinny, lightweight cars with anemic 3 cyl engines, tall gears, and horrible performance. They are driving "futurecar"!

[Catalepsy]

2016 is a long way off. Fiesta is coming with supposedly electric Focus and other smaller vehicles, I think Ford will do just fine.

[Catalepsy]

Wow...2000 lbs? I guess we're going carbon fiber and aluminum and lots of cash?

 

target curb weight of below 2000 lb

[battyr]

I worked it out to be 6% improvement every year.

 

While it is easy to do that in one year with by switching to Electric Power Steering and adjusting the timing of the engine and do it another year by switching to 6 speed dual clutch transmissions, They are running out of easy fixes.

 

I don't think cutting 30% of the weight of a vehicle is a solution. It would be very costly. Maybe if they could do it over 20 years. Same for hybrids.

 

Ford would have to stop building V-8s and most V-6s.

Make half of their engine diesels.

Make all gasoline engines EcoBoost.

Continue to improve hybrid technology. Migrate future hybrid technologies like electric A/C to all platforms the way they have with Electric Power Steering.

Add Auto start/stop to all cars.

Edited May 19, 2009 by battyr

[battyr]

For every Taurus they sell, they will have to sell a Fiesta with 2 cylinder EcoBoost engines.

[Catalepsy]

Or the Taurus will have become smaller and go EB 1.6 or 2.0 option...or I suppose, hybrid.

 

For every Taurus they sell, they will have to sell a Fiesta with 2 cylinder EcoBoost engines.

[Ford Jellymoulds]

Not sure that will be so easy. Here is the list that currently meet the requirement:

 

Brand/Model Highway MPG

 

Toyota Prius 45

 

Honda Civic Hybrid 45

 

Smart car 41

 

Volkswagen Jetta Diesel 41

 

Mini Cooper 37

 

Mini Clubman 37

 

Pontiac G5 XFE 37

 

Chevy Cobalt XFE 37

 

Ford Fusion Hybrid 36

 

Honda Civic CNG 36

 

Toyota Yaris 36

 

 

:reading:

 

There must be over 50 models in Europe that are more fuel efficent than the Prius, l guess other companies will just bring them in adapt them for the US market.

[lfeg]

Do not forget the new US emission regs that go along with all of this. These pretty much rule out small diesels due to the cost and weight penalties of the emission systems. You also must factor in the effect of punitive taxes on carbon dense fuels.

 

2016 starts in late summer of 2015, just a bit more that 6 years from now. Better start collecting fairy farts now, you will need them to fuel your 21st century King Midget Car.

[Ford Jellymoulds]

2016 starts in late summer of 2015, just a bit more that 6 years from now. Better start collecting fairy farts now, you will need them to fuel your 21st century King Midget Car.

 

 

It's good to see the Hybrid Fusion makes it on to the list, but all the Honda & Toyota's hybrids are prohibitively more expensive for average Joe Americans whether you are in or not in a credit crunch.

 

Most folk in the real world will end up buying cheaper Chrysler/Fiat 500's and Panda's & Ford Ka's & Fiesta's Focus's etc when they arrive from Europe that costing half the price of a hybrid but get better or about the same MPG, cars like the Fiesta offer more all round space inside compared to an expensive hybrid Prius that is cramped inside costing twice the price.

 

Gotta say l can see Hybid Prius sales getting hit hard if not almost wiped out Stateside as their sales are pretty much non existent in Europe when they have to complete against cheaper more fuel effiecient non-hybrids cars costing half the price.

Edited May 19, 2009 by Ford Jellymoulds

[mettech]

I see, in 7 years, half of the car and all of the truck/SUV in the Ford lineup will need to be replaced. The remaining cars will need new drive-trains.

 

How will Mercury and Lincoln meet the requirements? The MKT is DOA because of the new requirements.

[TomServo92]

I see, in 7 years, half of the car and all of the truck/SUV in the Ford lineup will need to be replaced. The remaining cars will need new drive-trains.

 

How will Mercury and Lincoln meet the requirements? The MKT is DOA because of the new requirements.

 

Ok, wait a sec. This is a new CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) requirement, correct? So doesn't that means that the fleet average has to meet the requirements, not every single vehicle?

Edited May 19, 2009 by TomServo92

[Ron W.]

There must be over 50 models in Europe that are more fuel efficent than the Prius,

 

Gas, diesel or hybrid and do they meet U.S. regs. for crash and emissions? Adapting I would think would be expensive.

[old_fairmont_wagon]

Rememeber, the EPA mileage discussed in the mandate is the base EPA mileage, not the adjusted sticker mileages we see today. Many more cars are just about compliant or are compliant than the ones listed above. This will lead to a broader push from larger N/A engines to smaller boosted engines. That alone can give a fleet wide 10+% increase in mileage without making any other considerations.

 

Also, rememeber, this is FLEET average. Not every car has to meet these targets.

[Biker16]

this the Stick the Carrot is steady increases in fuel taxes. to make the consumer pay attention.

[Sixt9coug]

screw this small car crap. I heard some bad news last weekend that some former neighbors of mine were involved in an accident in their 06 Civic. They were T-boned by a 98 Cadillac STS. None of them made it. Only one son that is away at college is left. The sad part is that they owned a 4 Runner too. I bet if they were in that car they would have made it. Bless them all. Great people.

[Hydro]

It will be really hard if they use California regulations. Next year (2010) CARB4 gasoline is required in the state. That means gasoline has to be <5ppm sulfur and 10% ethanol. So the cars here will be getting less fuel mileage with the stringent new standards. Oh yeah, expect to pay more for fuel also because getting gasoline below 5ppm is going to take refinerys to never seen levels and will be much harder to make. F*ck you very much gov't .

[Ford Jellymoulds]

Gas, diesel or hybrid and do they meet U.S. regs. for crash and emissions? Adapting I would think would be expensive.

 

 

Most small cars like the Fiat 500 Fiesta etc are 5 star rated in Europe and some of the models you sell in the US that are sold here are not.

 

http://www.euroncap.com/viewcomparison.aspx

Edited May 19, 2009 by Ford Jellymoulds

[SkapeGote]

Sup,

 

Jelly, your missing one crucial point. If I take a loaded F-150 and slam her into a new Taurus, the weight of the Taurus will help in the impact. If I take the same F-150 and and slam it into the Fiesta it can have all the 5 star crash ratings it want, it does not change physics. That shitbox is going to go sailing away just from sheer inertia. I know you have a fetish for these Euro small cars, and that works when most people drive the same size car. I watched my buddy leave the other night in a f-350 pickup. He is a farmer and uses it for its intended purpose, but the fact is if he hits a Fiesta at 75 - 80 mph, the occupants would be nothing but a pile of goo.

 

I do not doubt that these cars are nice cars, I have spent enough time in the UK driving rentals to know that they are excellently built. I am also a 6"7 man. I don't fit in a Focus, the Fiesta looks nice but again I would not fit. Jesus I have trouble in my BMW. Small cars are okay, but I could not travel like I do in some shitbox. I can travel 1200 - 1600km a week. You wanna do that in a Fiesta?. I agree that small cars seem like a decent idea, but they have never done great in the US. You can claim fuel economy, safety, build quality all you want, but in the end it all comes down to the fact that they don't work as well here. What the Yanks need to do is build more efficient engines. Gas engines. Diesels don't sell well State side either.

 

I am not trying to come down on you, but you are trying to put a European perspective on a North American problem. We are different than you guys. Right or wrong. We don't do diesels. Small cars are not the norm. Trying to force people to change here will not work. I know for myself I would only own an Econobox as a secondary car.

 

What do you drive anyway?. Just curious.

 

Skape

[Ralph Greene]

Any program that reduces our dependance on oil from countries that are not our friends is a good thing. I support this new goal. We need to make the middle east countries need our money more than we need their oil. Hopefully we can satisfy our need from friendly North American sources eventually.

 

Also.....I don't thnk this is the end of powerful work vehicles or performance cars. Or adequately sized family vehicles. It will just force faster change. Cars and trucks have been getting faster and more powerful ever since the last mileage rules went into effect. It may encourage auto makers to price vehicles a little differently, and I may wind up with a Fiesta (or Fit) to park alongside a better Explorer and Mustang. Big deal.

[NickF1011]

How will Mercury and Lincoln meet the requirements? The MKT is DOA because of the new requirements.

 

 

The fuel economy requirements for light trucks will be much lower than the 42 mpg requirement for cars. The MKT is classified as a light truck. If I recall, that milage only needs to increase to an average of somewhere around 27 MPG.

 

So basically: If new CAFE kills the MKT, it'll also kill the F-150.

[Deanh]

Most small cars like the Fiat 500 Fiesta etc are 5 star rated in Europe and some of the models you sell in the US that are sold here are not.

 

http://www.euroncap.com/viewcomparison.aspx

ahhh, but those are Imperial stars Jelly......