Lincoln and Taurus Going to Flat Rock in 2014

[Kris Kolman]

Ok, that makes sense... If we are talking PI and PIU moving to a new platform on 7-8 year centers I don't see any issues the fleet buyer. I was thinking 4-5 years, which would be a problem as the government patrol fleets invest a heck of a lot of money into specialized and maintenance equipment. And with current budget woes for all government agencies Ford would risk being turned into a scapegoat if those with the purse strings feel jerked around.

 

On the other point... I guess I got confused about where the Flex and MKT are produced. I could see the 40k in Flex and MKT production volume being taken up somewhat by increased Edge exports (i.e. recent Europe announcement). That still leaves Chicago and "Aviator" sales needing to make up 80k in Taurus and MKS sales. If the Edge and MKX sales ratio holds that is going to be difficult as that would indicate a 30k ceiling.

[rkisler]

So that makes Woodhaven available for other work like FRAP.

 

Gotcha.

 

Maybe local stamp plant at FRAP becomes dedicated to mustang side only, making panels as needed?

 

I'm not sure specifically what's happening with FRAP; i.e., I 'm not sure exactly where the investment is going. I also don't know what's happening with Woodhaven, but a couple of thoughts:

 

1. Ford seems to be FINALLY moving to an integrated stamping plant pattern, so I'm not sure why Ford would want to get outside stampings for FRAP (which has an integrated shop since the plant was laid out by Mazda).

 

2. Getting stampted metal into an assembly plant that has been designed with an integrated stamping plant is not easy; you would have to make expensive modifications to FRAP to create an exterior dock and cut into the flow. Whether Ford is planning on doing this or not, I have no idea. But I do have some personal experience looking at this and it isn't pretty.

 

3. I don't know why the AAI stamping shop couldn't handle 4 models, 3 of which have some common underbody bits. The stamping shop certainly has the volume capacity; the only question in my mind is whether they could handle the die complexity.

 

4. Woodhaven's business will be declining rapidly; from Ford's perspective, it would be good to get the fixed cost out of the system, particularly if it is no longer aligned with Ford's long-term assembly strategy. It seems to me that just having Woodhaven supply some panels to FRAP would not be cost-effective. I'm sure others here might have a better idea as to whether there is other business Woodhaven might be able to pick up.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Austin

[ice-capades]

Interesting message thread especially regarding Ford's future vehicle production planned for the Flat Rock plant.

 

Ford has already stated that the next generation Mustang (2015MY) will be sold globally for the first time and Ford expects to double Mustang production as a result.

 

It's also public information that Ford will start building the all-new 2013 Ford Fusion at Flat Rock starting in December 2012, which will substantially increase Fusion production to support antipated Fusion demand.

 

Where Lincoln or other production fits into Flat Rock assembly plant production is speculation at this point.

[jpd80]

I'm not sure specifically what's happening with FRAP; i.e., I 'm not sure exactly where the investment is going. I also don't know what's happening with Woodhaven, but a couple of thoughts:

 

1. Ford seems to be FINALLY moving to an integrated stamping plant pattern, so I'm not sure why Ford would want to get outside stampings for FRAP (which has an integrated shop since the plant was laid out by Mazda).

 

2. Getting stampted metal into an assembly plant that has been designed with an integrated stamping plant is not easy; you would have to make expensive modifications to FRAP to create an exterior dock and cut into the flow. Whether Ford is planning on doing this or not, I have no idea. But I do have some personal experience looking at this and it isn't pretty.

 

3. I don't know why the AAI stamping shop couldn't handle 4 models, 3 of which have some common underbody bits. The stamping shop certainly has the volume capacity; the only question in my mind is whether they could handle the die complexity.

 

4. Woodhaven's business will be declining rapidly; from Ford's perspective, it would be good to get the fixed cost out of the system, particularly if it is no longer aligned with Ford's long-term assembly strategy. It seems to me that just having Woodhaven supply some panels to FRAP would not be cost-effective. I'm sure others here might have a better idea as to whether there is other business Woodhaven might be able to pick up.

Thanks Austin, apparently a big chunk of the $550 million being spent at FRAP is going to a new body shop, I wonder if that also extends to

increasing the capacity of the on site stamping plant so it can keep up That would be logical but maybe we are getting ahead of ourselves

by assuming how much volume will be going through FRAP, Hermosillo will still be providing Fusions for the US market.

Edited October 25, 2012 by jpd80

[2b2]

Interesting message thread especially regarding Ford's future vehicle production planned for the Flat Rock plant.

 

Ford has already stated that the next generation Mustang (2015MY) will be sold globally for the first time and Ford expects to double Mustang production as a result.

 

It's also public information that Ford will start building the all-new 2013 Ford Fusion at Flat Rock starting in December 2012, which will substantially increase Fusion production to support antipated Fusion demand.

 

Where Lincoln or other production fits into Flat Rock assembly plant production is speculation at this point.

I've speculated that the current re-fit of FlatRock will accommodate CD4+3 as well as CD4

so

the Fusion "overflow" production could be temporary and would move to another (more dedicated midsizer) plant when the nextgen Taurus & platform-mates are nearing intro

[silvrsvt]

the Fusion "overflow" production could be temporary and would move to another (more dedicated midsizer) plant when the nextgen Taurus & platform-mates are nearing intro

 

Some more thoughts about this....I know Ford is being aggressive with the Fusion, It sells about 250K units of it and wants to do more then 300K units in the next couple years...what happens if it doesn't, due to not being popular or the economy? Then lets add in that Oakville is going to lose the Flex and MKT soon, so that opens up even more production space for CD4 based products down the road...Should be interesting how this shakes out...

[akirby]

I think Ford sells close to 300K Fusion/MKZs including non-U.S. exports today already.

[silvrsvt]

I think Ford sells close to 300K Fusion/MKZs including non-U.S. exports today already.

 

Thats the point, can they really expect another 50-100K sales from the Fusion and MKZ alone in North America?

[jpd80]

I think Ford sells close to 300K Fusion/MKZs including non-U.S. exports today already.

I remember reading that Hermosillo put out something like 300,000 units up to December last year, that only left around 30,000 units for Latin America.

Clearly FRAP will add huge capacity to that Fusion-MKZ production so it sounds like Ford is expecting a huge up tick in sales due to made in USA?

or is Ford only transferring high series Fusion, MKZ and hybrid production to FRAP, maybe Hermosillo becomes Pacific Rim export center to FAPA?

Edited October 26, 2012 by jpd80

[akirby]

Remember that Flat Rock will build at least 2 vehicles (Fusion and Mustang) and could build a 3rd if necessary. So they don't have to fill up an entire plant with additional capacity.

 

But yes - I think Ford could easily sell another 50K CD4 sedans. That's only a 20% increase. Fusion saw a jump when the 2nd gen hits because you have all those first time buyers plus the repeat buyers of the 2006-2008 models. Now you should have even more first time buyers plus repeat buyers from 2 generations. This is how Camry and Accord became top sellers - years and years of repeat buyers.

[Footballfan]

So that makes Woodhaven available for other work like FRAP.

 

Gotcha.

 

Maybe local stamp plant at FRAP becomes dedicated to mustang side only, making panels as needed?

I'm not sure specifically what's happening with FRAP; i.e., I 'm not sure exactly where the investment is going. I also don't know what's happening with Woodhaven, but a couple of thoughts:

 

1. Ford seems to be FINALLY moving to an integrated stamping plant pattern, so I'm not sure why Ford would want to get outside stampings for FRAP (which has an integrated shop since the plant was laid out by Mazda).

 

2. Getting stampted metal into an assembly plant that has been designed with an integrated stamping plant is not easy; you would have to make expensive modifications to FRAP to create an exterior dock and cut into the flow. Whether Ford is planning on doing this or not, I have no idea. But I do have some personal experience looking at this and it isn't pretty.

 

3. I don't know why the AAI stamping shop couldn't handle 4 models, 3 of which have some common underbody bits. The stamping shop certainly has the volume capacity; the only question in my mind is whether they could handle the die complexity.

 

4. Woodhaven's business will be declining rapidly; from Ford's perspective, it would be good to get the fixed cost out of the system, particularly if it is no longer aligned with Ford's long-term assembly strategy. It seems to me that just having Woodhaven supply some panels to FRAP would not be cost-effective. I'm sure others here might have a better idea as to whether there is other business Woodhaven might be able to pick up.

 

JPD80: Woodhaven is only two miles, and literally around the corner from FRAP.

 

Austin: The integrated stamping facilities like the one at FRAP are limited- usually less than 100 parts. In a perfect world, all stampings would be made on-site, but with the hundreds of stampings that go into a car (even more when there are multiple models built at the plant) it is nearly impossible to supply all the assembly plants needs with an on-site satillite stamper. Auto Aliance has been getting stampings from Woodhaven, Dearborn, and other suppliers since its inception, and the docks are there. The concept of the satillite stamper is to supply large panels (Hoods, Roofs, Quarterpanels, etc) to reduce in-system damage and cut shipping costs. Adding presses to FRAP is a very costly proposition- a new press can cost tens of millions of dollars.

[jpd80]

Fusion uses hydro-form pressings on the frames and pillars, perhaps this necessitates off site pressings in any case...

[atomcat68]

Remember that Flat Rock will build at least 2 vehicles (Fusion and Mustang) and could build a 3rd if necessary. So they don't have to fill up an entire plant with additional capacity.

 

But yes - I think Ford could easily sell another 50K CD4 sedans. That's only a 20% increase. Fusion saw a jump when the 2nd gen hits because you have all those first time buyers plus the repeat buyers of the 2006-2008 models. Now you should have even more first time buyers plus repeat buyers from 2 generations. This is how Camry and Accord became top sellers - years and years of repeat buyers.

And why Alan Mulally was right in not ditching nameplates every generation so the car that everyone returns for is still there.

[rmc523]

And why Alan Mulally was right in not ditching nameplates every generation so the car that everyone returns for is still there.

 

GM knows about that......oh wait

[fordmichiganman]

Just seen plant layout plans for when the current mustang line is torn out and mks taurus line put in

[jpd80]

Just seen plant layout plans for when the current mustang line is torn out and mks taurus line put in

Any thoughts on Mustang line relocation, will it stay at FRAP or go elsewhere?

Edited November 19, 2013 by jpd80

[silvrsvt]

Any thoughts on Mustang line relocation, will it stay at FRAP or go elsewhere?

 

That would make zero sense to rip out the Mustang line and move it...what would make more sense is flexing the next gen Taurus and MKS into the new Fusion line at the plant.

 

Given the new Mustang launches next summer and I'd expect the new MKS/Taurus to start production summer 2015 at the plant...why do all this major work in the middle of building the Mustang and not wait till a redesign?

 

Is there really any hindrances with building a RWD car on a production line with a FWD based product? Given that the Taurus and MKS are going to be widened/lengthened Fusion/MKZ platforms, I don't see any big issues with building the car there?

[akirby]

Is there really any hindrances with building a RWD car on a production line with a FWD based product? Given that the Taurus and MKS are going to be widened/lengthened Fusion/MKZ platforms, I don't see any big issues with building the car there?

 

You mean on the same line as opposed to a different line within the same plant? I think Ford built the Continental, LS and Town Car on the same line in Wixom in 1999-2001 so I don't think it's a problem.

[silvrsvt]

 

You mean on the same line as opposed to a different line within the same plant? I think Ford built the Continental, LS and Town Car on the same line in Wixom in 1999-2001 so I don't think it's a problem.

 

From what I understand, Flat Rock has two production lines, Mustang and Fusion (was Mazda 6), they might share the same line at points, but it is two different line in the plant.

 

I just don't agree with the timing of everything...it makes zero sense. It would make more sense to tear up the Fusion side of the house since its an overflow plant for the Fusion and production wouldn't be totally disrupted like if the Mustang line was tore up.

[jpd80]

 

From what I understand, Flat Rock has two production lines, Mustang and Fusion (was Mazda 6), they might share the same line at points, but it is two different line in the plant.

 

I just don't agree with the timing of everything...it makes zero sense. It would make more sense to tear up the Fusion side of the house since its an overflow plant for the Fusion and production wouldn't be totally disrupted like if the Mustang line was tore up.

Wasn't most of the recent upgrades to do with the body shop, the work on the final assembly line (s) may not be as disruptive as envisioned,

maybe it's not a full gut and redo but more of a progressive relocation of equipment done over a series of mini shutdowns

[rkisler]

 

From what I understand, Flat Rock has two production lines, Mustang and Fusion (was Mazda 6), they might share the same line at points, but it is two different line in the plant.

 

I just don't agree with the timing of everything...it makes zero sense. It would make more sense to tear up the Fusion side of the house since its an overflow plant for the Fusion and production wouldn't be totally disrupted like if the Mustang line was tore up.

My information is dated, so I'm not sure what the plant looks like now, but assuming it's just modified, then

 

1. There are two body shops

2. There are two chassis lines

3. There is one shared paint facility

4. There is shared trim and final

 

I'm finding it a bit hard to believe a prior poster who indicated the Mustang line was to be torn out. We are right on top of the new Mustang intro, and it's clearly at FRAP; moving it would not make any sense whatever at this point nor would it make any sense in cycle. It would only make sense if it were part of a new RWD platform offering which isn't likely to happen any time soon if ever.

 

So, my assumption is the new Fusion body shop can handle flex for the a larger Taurus/MKS if necessary. Chassis shouldn't be a problem, even with additional wheels and tires. Not sure about paint. Each paint shop has limitations, including on the number of colors. Going from sporty colors on Mustang to a bunch of tri-coats on Lincoln could put a strain on the paint shop. And I suppose the trim and final line could be tough with content ranging from Mustang convertible to a high-content Lincoln. All of this has, however, been planned for in the production system if, in fact, Taurus/MKS are going to FRAP.

 

There is a certain rhythm to assembly plants; I'm not sure how much Ford could "overspeed" the FWD side of the plant; i.e., I'm not sure what the min/max are for each side of the plant, but it's not infinitely adjustable.

[rkisler]

 

You mean on the same line as opposed to a different line within the same plant? I think Ford built the Continental, LS and Town Car on the same line in Wixom in 1999-2001 so I don't think it's a problem.

Well, they were built in the same plant, but not on the same line. From my memory which could be very faulty:

 

1. The one common point for those models (plus the Mark/T'bird) is the paint shop -- they all went through common e-coat dip and paint.

2. The LS line was completely separate -- separate body shop separate, chassis, separate trim and final IIRC (but this might have been combined?).

3. The Mark/T'bird line was completely separate

4. The Continental body shop might have been separate? Town Car had unique assembly due to body on frame. I think they had a combined chassis line, and I think they had a combined trim and final.

 

This plant was a mess; it had one car piled on top of another and was a total cut and paste -- which is the reason is was a mess financially also and would have financially killed any new product you attempted to put in it. In other words, it didn't have the kind of platform and assembly plant planning and flexibility that is much more common at Ford today.

[akirby]

Well, they were built in the same plant, but not on the same line. From my memory which could be very faulty:

 

1. The one common point for those models (plus the Mark/T'bird) is the paint shop -- they all went through common e-coat dip and paint.

2. The LS line was completely separate -- separate body shop separate, chassis, separate trim and final IIRC (but this might have been combined?).

3. The Mark/T'bird line was completely separate

4. The Continental body shop might have been separate? Town Car had unique assembly due to body on frame. I think they had a combined chassis line, and I think they had a combined trim and final.

 

This plant was a mess; it had one car piled on top of another and was a total cut and paste -- which is the reason is was a mess financially also and would have financially killed any new product you attempted to put in it. In other words, it didn't have the kind of platform and assembly plant planning and flexibility that is much more common at Ford today.

 

Based on a tour by the Lincoln LS owner's club back in 2002 or so both the LS and the Town Car were on the same final assembly line. Surprising since one was unibody and one was BOF. Not sure about the rest of the plant.

 

I didn't know if there was a second line for the Continental or not.

Edited November 19, 2013 by akirby

[jpd80]

 

Based on a tour by the Lincoln LS owner's club back in 2002 or so both the LS and the Town Car were on the same final assembly line. Surprising since one was unibody and one was BOF. Not sure about the rest of the plant.

 

I didn't know if there was a second line for the Continental or not.

That's not hard to do when the drive line is assembled in a cradle and offered up to th overhead body, assembly becomes similar to BOF.

That happens back on the chassis line before final trim. All water under the bridge now...

Edited November 20, 2013 by jpd80

[rkisler]

 

Based on a tour by the Lincoln LS owner's club back in 2002 or so both the LS and the Town Car were on the same final assembly line. Surprising since one was unibody and one was BOF. Not sure about the rest of the plant.

 

I didn't know if there was a second line for the Continental or not.

You're right; trim and final was shared (but I still can't remember Mark/'bird which I think had a separate line?). The trim and final line can be very flexible; it has more labor and less automation, and driveline configuration and body construction isn't really relevant at that point. You just need to make sure that the parts are stacked up in sequence to the build. That's why Fusion and Mustang can share a trim and final at FRAP even thought they are quite different animals. You can, however, have "trapped labor" in situations where the vehicles coming down line have different levels of content and it's more difficult to keep the workload balanced from station to station.