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Got an invite from Ford for this yesterday: 

FORD COMMERCIAL SPRING UPDATE

A look at how Ford is transforming its commercial vehicle business

April 22 at 2:00 PM (EST)

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2 hours ago, lfeg said:

Got an invite from Ford for this yesterday: 

FORD COMMERCIAL SPRING UPDATE

A look at how Ford is transforming its commercial vehicle business

April 22 at 2:00 PM (EST)

Ifeg.....🤞will await your report- hopefully will be more than a "me too"  on electrics- Transits/F150.

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5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

March sales

F600.........1,261

F650...........840

F750.............96

Thx JP for that info.

Predictably, 600 doing better than 650.  Wonder if there is  a big U-haul order in that number?.  Just for kicks I did a survey of the last Truck and Equipment Post I have.  This comes out every two weeks in New England.  A very good new/used truck and equipment rag.  There were 12 full page ads from NE Ford dealers. In those ads, there was ONE 600 in inventory and one  dealer had a full page listing "Incoming" vehicles....2 PS 450's, 3 PS 550's, 4 600's-2 7.3, 2 PS, and 1 750 PS.

 

New issue should  be out tomorrow, will  see what that brings

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21 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

So clueless as to  Iveco being non-"sustainable"  I  thought they were in step with the rest of the euro crowd???

 

Iveco is too small to survive on its own even as part of CNH. It lags behind Daimler, Volvo, and VW Traton on EV development and has negligible presence outside of Europe so it has a volume/economy of scale problem. It will take many billions of investment to catch up in R&D and expand the brand outside Europe. Unless of course someone who already has invested in EV and just want the Iveco brand and the European cachet wants to buy it, hence the Chinese. 

 

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23 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

It sounds like the the Chinese offer was only for the truck business.  The Agnelli's will probably eventually unload Iveco.  $3.6B does not sound like a lot, but whoever buys it will have to make very significant investments in Iveco to make it 'sustainable'.  No doubt that is why CNH is announcing they will make investments to Iveco with that goal as it will make Iveco more appealing to a potential buyer.                                                               

Any possibility for Ford Otosan? They seem to be very interested in being in the heavy truck business.

Last I read, they were expanding into Europe.

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6 hours ago, 40 Mile said:

Any possibility for Ford Otosan? They seem to be very interested in being in the heavy truck business.

Last I read, they were expanding into Europe.

Otosan an is the big winner out of Ford VW alliance, they get to build all the Transits and Transit customs for Ford as well as the VW versions. 

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7 hours ago, 40 Mile said:

Any possibility for Ford Otosan? They seem to be very interested in being in the heavy truck business.

Last I read, they were expanding into Europe.

 

Honestly I think Otosan's heavy truck operation is in a similar situation compared to Iveco.  They basically don't exist outside of Europe though they do have a presence in China.  I don't see Otosan spinning off their truck operation, but I could see them aligning with a strategic partner.   

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1 hour ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

Honestly I think Otosan's heavy truck operation is in a similar situation compared to Iveco.  They basically don't exist outside of Europe though they do have a presence in China.  I don't see Otosan spinning off their truck operation, but I could see them aligning with a strategic partner.   

 

Well Bzcat's post in essence says same thing with respect to Iveco.  And when you look at Iveco's product lineup, if one is at all skeptical about Iveco's survival, if you guys are right about that, and you look at Otosan's lineup, it is not a promising picture- unless Bill comes up with some big bucks??

7m back to your post, seems to  me Otosan if anything has as bigger presence in middle east vs EU.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

 

Well Bzcat's post in essence says same thing with respect to Iveco.  And when you look at Iveco's product lineup, if one is at all skeptical about Iveco's survival, if you guys are right about that, and you look at Otosan's lineup, it is not a promising picture- unless Bill comes up with some big bucks??

7m back to your post, seems to  me Otosan if anything has as bigger presence in middle east vs EU.

Should have added I'm talking about heavy trucks.  As JPD points out, Otosan seems to be golden when it comes to Transit.

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Ford Otosan is a relatively small unit of the huge Koc comglormate - one of the largest company in Turkey and controlled by one of the richest family there. So the cliff notes version is that Otosan doesn't need a partner or need to acquire someone to stay independent since it is already just a unit of a huge company - actually a unit of TWO huge companies... Koc Holdings and Ford Motor Company.

 

Both Koc and Ford are happy with the arrangement and they are not going to change. Ford doesn't have any ambition to compete with the big boys like Daimler, Volvo, Traton, Toyota, and Isuzu in medium and heavy trucks and it doesn't need any more volume on the light commercial vans now that it has VW in its camp. And Koc benefits from steady business from Ford that require only limited capital investment.

 

Koc's other automotive assets include Tofas, which is a joint venture that makes Fiat vehicles in a similar arrangement with Stellantis as Ford Otosan; and Otokar, which makes buses and military vehicles. Otokar is likely to be interested in CNH/Iveco but we don't know if Koc's joint venture agreement with Ford prohibits it from entering into direct competition with Ford Otosan (it probably does, which is why Otokar doesn't sell trucks).

 

Also, Ford's long term strategy in medium and heavy trucks are very unclear. There were 4 parts to this business until very recently:

1. Ford Otosan

2. JMC via Jiangling Ford

3. Ford Cargo (Brazil)

4. Ford US

 

On the face of it, this looks like enough assets to stitch together a global player with enough scale and volume but parts of these business have suffered from under-investment for years if not decades so it would take a lot of capital to catch up with the market leaders. Ford closed down Brazil rather than invest so that tells you a lot about what Ford thinks of the medium and heavy trucks business... it's not something they are that interested in. Ford Otosan's heavy truck business exists mainly because Koc brought that part of the business to the joint venture. Same with JMC which inherited the Jiangling Isuzu business when it was restructured. Ford Otosan still sees new investment because of Koc. Meanwhile JMC is pretty much in terminal decline like Ford Cargo in Brazil... eventually, Ford will have to put in real money to update that business and there is no indication that Ford will do that with no other medium duty cab forward products elsewhere.

 

And that leaves the US part in a big question mark too. The F-series super duty will get needed investments but F-650/750, stripped chassis, and E-series will all need investments for electrification... Doesn't feel like that is something Ford is committed to doing while all of the competitors have already committed.

 

 

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On 4/21/2021 at 6:57 AM, lfeg said:

Got an invite from Ford for this yesterday: 

FORD COMMERCIAL SPRING UPDATE

A look at how Ford is transforming its commercial vehicle business

April 22 at 2:00 PM (EST)

Awaiting to see what was discussed/announced.

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3 hours ago, pffan1990 said:

Awaiting to see what was discussed/announced.

 

My guess, cutting edge telematics for the Transit and F-150!

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13 minutes ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

You were correct about the updated Telematics system. Also announced modems that can be installed on older vehicles and some new info about E-Transit. I skimmed through parts of the video since there were some audio issues like working only on one side of my headphones for one person and then extremely loud in both sides for another person. I figured it wasn't gonna be a huge announcement/reveal or else they would have given heads up for that. Thanks for the link though. :)

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Well like I said when Ifeg posted news of this web presentation.....

Ifeg.....🤞will await your report- hopefully will be more than a "me too"  on electrics- Transits/F150.

 

I'll  give  them credit  though-not  one mention of... "all new cup holders".   Too bad when they show a 150 pulling a skid steer trailer, its not a dirty plain jane but  a gussied up show truck.  

 

Bzcat-thanks for that  Otosan perspective and 7m3 for  the link.

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On 4/22/2021 at 12:03 AM, Bob Rosadini said:

Thx JP for that info.

Predictably, 600 doing better than 650.  Wonder if there is  a big U-haul order in that number?.  Just for kicks I did a survey of the last Truck and Equipment Post I have.  This comes out every two weeks in New England.  A very good new/used truck and equipment rag.  There were 12 full page ads from NE Ford dealers. In those ads, there was ONE 600 in inventory and one  dealer had a full page listing "Incoming" vehicles....2 PS 450's, 3 PS 550's, 4 600's-2 7.3, 2 PS, and 1 750 PS.

 

New issue should  be out tomorrow, will  see what that brings

Thnx Bob, I think sales ebb and flow with orders each month, F650 was stronger in Jan/ Feb than F600, if I get more colour on that I’ll post over the weekend.

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On 4/22/2021 at 12:03 AM, Bob Rosadini said:

Thx JP for that info.

Predictably, 600 doing better than 650.  Wonder if there is  a big U-haul order in that number?.  Just for kicks I did a survey of the last Truck and Equipment Post I have.  This comes out every two weeks in New England.  A very good new/used truck and equipment rag.  There were 12 full page ads from NE Ford dealers. In those ads, there was ONE 600 in inventory and one  dealer had a full page listing "Incoming" vehicles....2 PS 450's, 3 PS 550's, 4 600's-2 7.3, 2 PS, and 1 750 PS.

 

New issue should  be out tomorrow, will  see what that brings

Thnx Bob, I think sales ebb and flow with orders each month, F650 was stronger in Jan/ Feb than F600, if I get more colour on that I’ll post over the weekend.

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I am glad the F600 has found a profitable niche in the market...would be nice if Ford would come out with an E600 to go up against the LCF class 6 market. In vocational, it is price price price....

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2 hours ago, twintornados said:

I am glad the F600 has found a profitable niche in the market...would be nice if Ford would come out with an E600 to go up against the LCF class 6 market. In vocational, it is price price price....

Mu guts says, the F600 will "carry" the F650 and F750.  Sales for the later two just have not caught on.  Despite my prediction that fleets would jump on the 7.3L gasoline  F650/F750 it has not happened.

 

As for a E600 to go up against the LCFs, breaking into a market is always difficult.  The big market for E350/E450 is the Class C motorhome.  They want better passenger side leg room.  Probably not going to happen soon, because that costs engineering $$$ !

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23 hours ago, bzcat said:

Ford Otosan is a relatively small unit of the huge Koc comglormate - one of the largest company in Turkey and controlled by one of the richest family there. So the cliff notes version is that Otosan doesn't need a partner or need to acquire someone to stay independent since it is already just a unit of a huge company - actually a unit of TWO huge companies... Koc Holdings and Ford Motor Company.

 

Both Koc and Ford are happy with the arrangement and they are not going to change. Ford doesn't have any ambition to compete with the big boys like Daimler, Volvo, Traton, Toyota, and Isuzu in medium and heavy trucks and it doesn't need any more volume on the light commercial vans now that it has VW in its camp. And Koc benefits from steady business from Ford that require only limited capital investment.

 

Koc's other automotive assets include Tofas, which is a joint venture that makes Fiat vehicles in a similar arrangement with Stellantis as Ford Otosan; and Otokar, which makes buses and military vehicles. Otokar is likely to be interested in CNH/Iveco but we don't know if Koc's joint venture agreement with Ford prohibits it from entering into direct competition with Ford Otosan (it probably does, which is why Otokar doesn't sell trucks).

 

Also, Ford's long term strategy in medium and heavy trucks are very unclear. There were 4 parts to this business until very recently:

1. Ford Otosan

2. JMC via Jiangling Ford

3. Ford Cargo (Brazil)

4. Ford US

 

On the face of it, this looks like enough assets to stitch together a global player with enough scale and volume but parts of these business have suffered from under-investment for years if not decades so it would take a lot of capital to catch up with the market leaders. Ford closed down Brazil rather than invest so that tells you a lot about what Ford thinks of the medium and heavy trucks business... it's not something they are that interested in. Ford Otosan's heavy truck business exists mainly because Koc brought that part of the business to the joint venture. Same with JMC which inherited the Jiangling Isuzu business when it was restructured. Ford Otosan still sees new investment because of Koc. Meanwhile JMC is pretty much in terminal decline like Ford Cargo in Brazil... eventually, Ford will have to put in real money to update that business and there is no indication that Ford will do that with no other medium duty cab forward products elsewhere.

 

And that leaves the US part in a big question mark too. The F-series super duty will get needed investments but F-650/750, stripped chassis, and E-series will all need investments for electrification... Doesn't feel like that is something Ford is committed to doing while all of the competitors have already committed.

 

 

Very interesting and informative, Thanks!

Also very disappointing regards U.S. market , I would have to agree.

 

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Q1 Sales

Truck..........January........February...........March 

F600................679.........."....454...............1,261

F650................803.............2,386................840

F750................198................138..................96

Decent 
with these figures, I’m also mindful that E Series is also available with up to 22,000 GCWR

but I wonder if that was just  to achieve a 10,000 lb tow rating with say, a 12,000 lb GWR.

Not sure how many heavier E Series sales migh be buried in Class 6 but as Ford groups 

all its E series together and singles out heavy trucks, I’m comfortable with the above data,

class 4 and 5 is where I’d expect the bulk of E Series sales.

 

Edited by jpd80

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14 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Q1 Sales

Truck..........January........February...........March .........total

F600................679.........."....454...............1,261.........2,394

F650................803.............2,386................840.........4,029

F750................198................138..................96..........432

 

 

 

Added totals there.

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1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Q1 Sales

Truck..........January........February...........March 

F600................679.........."....454...............1,261

F650................803.............2,386................840

F750................198................138..................96

Decent 
with these figures, I’m also mindful that E Series is also available with up to 22,000 GCWR

but I wonder if that was just  to achieve a 10,000 lb tow rating with say, a 12,000 lb GWR.

Not sure how many heavier E Series sales migh be buried in Class 6 but as Ford groups 

all its E series together and singles out heavy trucks, I’m comfortable with the above data,

class 4 and 5 is where I’d expect the bulk of E Series sales.

 

 

The 22,000 lbs GCWR E-series is E-450 (class 4) with 14,500 lbs GVWR, so not class 6. 

 

The heavy trucks sales would include F59 and F53 stripped chassis which spans from class 4 thru 6. So can't assume they are all F600 or 650. E-series stripped chassis is included with E-series sales since they are consider light vehicles.

 

This is Ford's stripped chassis offering:

E-350 138" / 158" / 176" WB 11,500-12,500 lbs (Class 3) - reported as part of E-series sales

E-450 158" / 176" WB 14,000-14,500 lbs (Class 4) - reported as part of E-series sales

F59 158" / 168" / 178" / 190" / 208" WB 16,000 lbs-22,000 lbs (Class 4-6) - reported as part of heavy truck sales

F53 158" / 178" / 190" / 208" / 228" / 242" / 252" WB 16,000 lbs-26,000 lbs (Class 4-6) - reported as part of heavy truck sales

Edited by bzcat

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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

The 22,000 lbs GCWR E-series is E-450 (class 4) with 14,500 lbs GVWR, so not class 6. 

 

The heavy trucks sales would include F59 and F53 stripped chassis which spans from class 4 thru 6. So can't assume they are all F600 or 650. E-series stripped chassis is included with E-series sales since they are consider light vehicles.

 

This is Ford's stripped chassis offering:

E-350 138" / 158" / 176" WB 11,500-12,500 lbs (Class 3) - reported as part of E-series sales

E-450 158" / 176" WB 14,000-14,500 lbs (Class 4) - reported as part of E-series sales

F59 158" / 168" / 178" / 190" / 208" WB 16,000 lbs-22,000 lbs (Class 4-6) - reported as part of heavy truck sales

F53 158" / 178" / 190" / 208" / 228" / 242" / 252" WB 16,000 lbs-26,000 lbs (Class 4-6) - reported as part of heavy truck sales

While that’s true, I’m willing to bet that the majority of F53 and F59 sales are in class 4 and 5.

the nature of a stripped chassis is to create motor homes and covered vans, most of which 

are intended to carry loads that tend to be more bulky than heavy, so maybe less  max capacity.

If there any heavier ones, they are probably only a handful each month.

 

Ford’s heavy truck sales are specifically F650 & F750, so I think my figure for them are still safe.

Edited by jpd80

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On 4/21/2021 at 10:03 AM, Bob Rosadini said:

Thx JP for that info.

Predictably, 600 doing better than 650.  Wonder if there is  a big U-haul order in that number?.  Just for kicks I did a survey of the last Truck and Equipment Post I have.  This comes out every two weeks in New England.  A very good new/used truck and equipment rag.  There were 12 full page ads from NE Ford dealers. In those ads, there was ONE 600 in inventory and one  dealer had a full page listing "Incoming" vehicles....2 PS 450's, 3 PS 550's, 4 600's-2 7.3, 2 PS, and 1 750 PS.

 

New issue should  be out tomorrow, will  see what that brings

 

Well to follow up on this as new edition out yesterday.  Same 12 full page ads by same dealers-these guys are usually consistent advertisers.

 

"On  ground" 600's went from one to two.  The dealer with the full page of incoming orders lists the same trucks but one 550 and the single 750 he listed are now being carried as "sold".  I didn't post this last time but noted in new issue  5 650s in inventory-1 7.3 and 4 PS as are the two 750's.  Both 600's are 7.3's 

Someone posted that they were surprised as to the lack of 7.3 sales and IMO the absence of air brakes is a big reason

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