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The Ford Order Tracking System Is No Longer Available.  THANKS Cyberdman For Making Available All Of These Past Years.  More Here.

Joe771476

New light & medium duty news

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1 hour ago, twintornados said:

 

..and now, they have both. Tells me that there IS room for Transit Custom in the NA market, but production space is too tight to fit it in, one possible place to build it would be Flat Rock if the line can handle that size of it....77 3/4 inches in height may be too tall for Flat Rock....Continental is 58 1/2 inches tall. 

I saw lots of them in the UK.  Really like the size.  The Mercedes looks like a Chrysler minivan.  The Custom looks ready for business. 

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Keep in mind the reason the Ecocline E-150 was replaced by the Transit Connect was it sat in a no mans land with EPA CAFE regulations due its size. The Transit Custom would most likely fall into that no mans land too. 

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56 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Keep in mind the reason the Ecocline E-150 was replaced by the Transit Connect was it sat in a no mans land with EPA CAFE regulations due its size. The Transit Custom would most likely fall into that no mans land too. 


Huh?  E-150 was replaced by Transit 150.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Keep in mind the reason the Ecocline E-150 was replaced by the Transit Connect was it sat in a no mans land with EPA CAFE regulations due its size. The Transit Custom would most likely fall into that no mans land too. 

640px-2018_Ford_Transit_Connect_(Pre-fac

Transit Connect is a compact van that uses a C1/Global C platform.  

PS: Europe gets an all-new model based on the VW Caddy. 

Edited by AM222

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Seriously guys, the space between an LWB Transit Connect and a SWB Transit is a small space.

 

Transit Connect LWB:

Length…………………..190.0”

Width……………………….72.2”

Height……………………..72.0”

Wheelbase…………..120.6”

 

 

Transit SWB:

Length…………………219.9”

Width………….………..81.3”

Height…………..……..82.2”

Wheelbase….……130.0”

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19 hours ago, akirby said:


Huh?  E-150 was replaced by Transit 150.

 

Maybe I should have said this-the smaller E-150 was replaced by Transit Connect due to its footprint issues with CAFE and the Transit replaced the longer models.

 

A E-150 could be 216 inches long

A T-150 starts at 237.6 in.

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Posted (edited)

You can't compare Transit Custom's business case with Ranger in the US. 

 

Not many people are buying vans for private use in the US, hence Transit Custom will have to rely on almost 100% commercial and fleet sales to justify its place in the market. And this is where the business case breaks down. Light duty vans typically cube out before they weight out - meaning size is important in the US market. If operating cost of Transit 150 is roughly the same as Transit Custom, the fleets are not interested in having a van that is marginally smaller for no reason. And for Ford, placing a van under 8,500 lbs GVWR means it has to comply with light duty vehicle CAFE... which means Transit Custom, which presumably will have worse CAFE number than Transit Connect is a net drag on CAFE. In this context, you can see that it makes a lot more sense for Ford to make a slightly bigger Transit Connect just for the US than try to sell both Connect and Custom. This is probably why Ford Europe bowed out of the next gen Connect and choose to rebadge VW Caddy.

 

The Ranger decision was different. Ford didn't want to retool Twin Cities first and foremost so that basically clouded the entire Ranger business case. They placed the bet on Explorer Sporttrac which was built in the same plant as Explorer and was more like T6 than the old Ranger in size and market position. Of course in hindsight we can say that T6 should have been part of the US market but Ford was in a very different place financially when that decision had to be made. The parallel with Transit Custom pretty much ends there.

 

 

Edited by bzcat

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9 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Maybe I should have said this-the smaller E-150 was replaced by Transit Connect due to its footprint issues with CAFE and the Transit replaced the longer models.

 

A E-150 could be 216 inches long

A T-150 starts at 237.6 in.

SWB Transit begins at 219” long, that’s why Ford chose it to replace E150.

The size difference between largest Transit Connect vs Smallest full sized Transit shows why Transit Custom want considered for North America.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, bzcat said:

You can't compare Transit Custom's business case with Ranger in the US. 

 

Not many people are buying vans for private use in the US, hence Transit Custom will have to rely on almost 100% commercial and fleet sales to justify its place in the market. And this is where the business case breaks down. Light duty vans typically cube out before they weight out - meaning size is important in the US market. If operating cost of Transit 150 is roughly the same as Transit Custom, the fleets are not interested in having a van that is marginally smaller for no reason. And for Ford, placing a van under 8,500 lbs GVWR means it has to comply with light duty vehicle CAFE... which means Transit Custom, which presumably will have worse CAFE number than Transit Connect is a net drag on CAFE. In this context, you can see that it makes a lot more sense for Ford to make a slightly bigger Transit Connect just for the US than try to sell both Connect and Custom. This is probably why Ford Europe bowed out of the next gen Connect and choose to rebadge VW Caddy.

 

The Ranger decision was different. Ford didn't want to retool Twin Cities first and foremost so that basically clouded the entire Ranger business case. They placed the bet on Explorer Sporttrac which was built in the same plant as Explorer and was more like T6 than the old Ranger in size and market position. Of course in hindsight we can say that T6 should have been part of the US market but Ford was in a very different place financially when that decision had to be made. The parallel with Transit Custom pretty much ends there.

 

Ford had also let Ranger become a cheap transport option for buyers (under $20k?) that Mulally was looking to end, his rejection of T6 Ranger was based on false assumptions presented in 2006, that Ford NA wanted a Ranger the size of today’s Maverick. Had North America signed up to T6 Ranger development in 2006, Ford would have been perfectly timed to take advantage of the bigger Ranger in 2011 launch. Global Ranger was a huge project and adding North America into the mix would have been good for Ford globally and North America (Mulally was anti-BOF small car is the future guy).

 

False perceptions based on out of date data was a constant source of annoyance as Ford was portrayed as some sort of “fast follower” when in actuality, their decisions were often too late to take full advantage of a changed market. Thank goodness Farley, a car guy is back in charge to get in front of analysts and their old data.

Edited by jpd80

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Posted (edited)

Mularlly was not a "small car is the future guy" but rather "global platform is the answer" guy. And he is not wrong... Farley largely followed this strategy but he gave the region a lot more freedom to create regional models all based on the same C2 platform.

 

Mulally had to deal with a Ford that was functionally bankrupt but Ford family that refused to put the company into bankruptcy. So I'm not going to blame him for taking a low risk proposition - shut down Twin Cities and all the costs related to it and say goodbye to Ranger which was not profitable was right decision. Ford had too much capacity and the role Ranger had taken/become was better suited for dual replacement with Fiesta and Transit Connect. I'm guessing that before Ford lost the Chicken Tax case, it was making more money selling 40K Transit Connect and 30k Fiesta a year in the US vs. 100k old Ranger. 

 

If Ford US had come up with a compelling business case for T6, it probably would have been done. Instead, they had tunnel vision and wanted an exact replacement for the old Ranger. The rest of the world knew compact trucks buyers were moving to midsize but those buyers in the US had told Ford they were not that into Explorer Sporttrac. This is the "data blindness" you are talking about... And Dodge couldn't find enough buyers to keep Dakota around either so it wasn't just Ford. The data they had probably showed not much interest in midsize because they were probably talking to existing buyers. Toyota was talking to the right people and the 2nd gen Tacoma was a game changer. 

Edited by bzcat

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, bzcat said:

Mularlly was not a "small car is the future guy" but rather "global platform is the answer" guy. And he is not wrong... Farley largely followed this strategy but he gave the region a lot more freedom to create regional models all based on the same C2 platform.

Or more succinctly “One Ford” which allowed him to clean out or prune away a lot of what he called unnecessary duplication but what was realised was that “One Ford” did not permit the kind of localisation required for the differing vehicle tastes in different regions.

 

 

Quote

 

Mulally had to deal with a Ford that was functionally bankrupt but Ford family that refused to put the company into bankruptcy. So I'm not going to blame him for taking a low risk proposition - shut down Twin Cities and all the costs related to it and say goodbye to Ranger which was not profitable was right decision. Ford had too much capacity and the role Ranger had taken/become was better suited for dual replacement with Fiesta and Transit Connect. I'm guessing that before Ford lost the Chicken Tax case, it was making more money selling 40K Transit Connect and 30k Fiesta a year in the US vs. 100k old Ranger. 

Ford was not bankrupt, being able to raise $23 billion in credit proved that, especially compared to GM by that time…

 

Quote

 

If Ford US had come up with a compelling business case for T6, it probably would have been done. Instead, they had tunnel vision and wanted an exact replacement for the old Ranger. The rest of the world knew compact trucks buyers were moving to midsize but those buyers in the US had told Ford they were not that into Explorer Sporttrac. This is the "data blindness" you are talking about...

 

And Dodge couldn't find enough buyers to keep Dakota around either so it wasn't just Ford. The data they had probably showed not much interest in midsize because they were probably talking to existing buyers. Toyota was talking to the right people and the 2nd gen Tacoma was a game changer. 

To an extent I agree,
That tunnel vision you mentioned, came from the old data Ford was using, basing decisions on seven year old data when those customers had already moved on. Keep in mind that the whole point of Explorer Sport Track was to permit a significant increase in price over crew cab Ranger, ten years later the T6 Ranger Crew Cab 2WD XLT is similar price to Sport Trac XLT 2WD.


Ram /Dodge were dumb or insensitive to their customers and basically doubled down on the 1500 at aggressive prices which left no room for a Compact truck below. Conversely, GM and Ford increasing prices on their 1550 & F150 opened up a nice gap below for mid-sized products that basically filled the gap of entry level single cab full sized trucks. 

 

Correct me if I’m wrong but I think the issue with Toyota doubling down on Tacoma was entirely due to Tundra being a massive failure. It was so bad that it made Tacoma look better than it was so Toyota had no choice but elevate pan B to their main strategy and press Tacoma for all its worth.

Edited by jpd80

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Here are estimates for May and June and Q2:

 

image.thumb.png.65254385fc76b5e70bf20b78dc6eae78.png

 

image.thumb.png.27bef2ad067605caa5fb0bf0d7c5c7f2.png

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Not looking good for the 650 and 750, but the 600 is showing a strong increase.  It will be interesting to see if the 650 and 750 survive the coming ICE product cuts.  Probably the only rational reason for keeping them around at this point is that they are potential place-holders for a medium duty fuel cell or BEV truck.  I am hearing rumors of a Ford fuel cell medium duty, but it may be F-550 based.

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On 7/29/2022 at 2:32 AM, silvrsvt said:

Keep in mind the reason the Ecocline E-150 was replaced by the Transit Connect was it sat in a no mans land with EPA CAFE regulations due its size. The Transit Custom would most likely fall into that no mans land too. 

I thought that E150 was replaced by T150 and Transit Connect was something else completely 

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2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I thought that E150 was replaced by T150 and Transit Connect was something else completely 

 

Correct, if I remember correctly, one of the reasons Transit Connect was brought into the NA market was to help fill the gap left by Ranger in commercial sales.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

Not looking good for the 650 and 750, but the 600 is showing a strong increase.  It will be interesting to see if the 650 and 750 survive the coming ICE product cuts.  Probably the only rational reason for keeping them around at this point is that they are potential place-holders for a medium duty fuel cell or BEV truck.  I am hearing rumors of a Ford fuel cell medium duty, but it may be F-550 based.

I don’t know, H1 2021 was the start of the chip shortage thing while H1 2022 probably defines the last of the worst of it. Ford has done amazingly well introducing the F600 between F550 and F650 with what seems minimal internal conquesting, this is a surprisingly good result that should become more apparent in Q3 and Q4 if supplies of chips keeps improving…

Edited by jpd80

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I just saw a Hino in a TV show and it occurred to me that I haven't been seeing many Hinos on the road in a while here in New England.  On the other hand I've been seeing a lot of new Ford mediums.  On a lighter note, check this out. And you thought the Taurus was a mild mannered family sedan!  Think again!

 

 

Car goes airborne on Broadway in New Haven, lands on SUV

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4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I don’t know, H1 2021 was the start of the chip shortage thing while H1 2022 probably defines the last of the worst of it. Ford has done amazingly well introducing the F600 between F550 and F650 with what seems minimal internal conquesting, this is a surprisingly good result that should become more apparent in Q3 and Q4 if supplies of chips keeps improving…

Perhaps a bigger question  is what did 600 do to 550 sales?  I'm sure some 650 sales were lost, but I think a lot of 650 sales are made because 600 doesn't have the wheelbase availability-at least that is what has prevented U-haul from jumping ship to 600-or so I've been told.  And to Joe's comment on Hino, I think given Hino's absence from the market, Ford should have capitalized on that although I guess the chip shortage did not help Ford as others have pointed out.

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3 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Perhaps a bigger question  is what did 600 do to 550 sales?  I'm sure some 650 sales were lost, but I think a lot of 650 sales are made because 600 doesn't have the wheelbase availability-at least that is what has prevented U-haul from jumping ship to 600-or so I've been told.  And to Joe's comment on Hino, I think given Hino's absence from the market, Ford should have capitalized on that although I guess the chip shortage did not help Ford as others have pointed out.


its difficult to break down between Ford’s designations.  The numbers shown above are rough estimates.  It’s entirely possible some listed as 600 are actually 550

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5 hours ago, rmc523 said:


its difficult to break down between Ford’s designations.  The numbers shown above are rough estimates.  It’s entirely possible some listed as 600 are actually 550

Ok thx.  to repeat what I have been saying regarding 600, I get two truck sales rags. one is monthly and the other is out like every two weeks. the commercial Ford dealers that  advertise in those mags rarely have a 600 featured in their copy.

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9 hours ago, rmc523 said:


its difficult to break down between Ford’s designations.  The numbers shown above are rough estimates.  It’s entirely possible some listed as 600 are actually 550

I think it’s moot because pre-2019 I suspect that was happening (class6) when many assumed that all class 6 Ford trucks had to be F650

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Here in the northeast, it's Ford Transit and Dodge/Ram Promaster.  Mercedes Sprinter and GM vans are out!  I see a Sprinter once a month!  I see more GM vans but i can't tell what model year they are.  Do they still make them?

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On 8/6/2022 at 12:02 PM, Bob Rosadini said:

Ok thx.  to repeat what I have been saying regarding 600, I get two truck sales rags. one is monthly and the other is out like every two weeks. the commercial Ford dealers that  advertise in those mags rarely have a 600 featured in their copy.

RMC has some more figures coming for July, your suspicion of F550 sales reduction due to F600 rebranding could be correct, the drop in YTD Class 5 sales kind of corresponds to the YTD sales of F600 (estimated split out). RMC’s charts are pretty neat and allow us to see stuff like that….a lot of those estimations are good detective work but I love the effort  he puts into sleuthing out  those figures.

 

Edited by jpd80

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On 8/11/2022 at 3:48 PM, Joe771476 said:

Here in the northeast, it's Ford Transit and Dodge/Ram Promaster.  Mercedes Sprinter and GM vans are out!  I see a Sprinter once a month!  I see more GM vans but i can't tell what model year they are.  Do they still make them?

 

GM handed off construction of the old style body on frame vans to AM General around 2015-2016 to make room to build more Colorado/Canyon trucks.

 

https://www.autoblog.com/2015/11/25/gm-outsource-van-production-am-general/

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