Biker16 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 DETROIT -- Nine years after mortgaging everything it had to avoid collapse, Ford Motor Co. is earning more money than ever before, selling high-margin pickups and SUVs as fast as it can make them and developing ambitious plans to grow revenue even as cash-flush tech companies such as Google and Apple try to horn in on its business. But Wall Street isn't sold on Ford executives' upbeat prognoses. Ford is poised to announce record pretax earnings this week, but as its profits grow, its stock price keeps sinking. Last week Ford shares fell to their lowest closing price in more than three years. They've dropped 19 percent since January 2015, when CEO Mark Fields launched his signature initiative, Ford Smart Mobility, a plan to take the 112-year-old manufacturer into the realm of transportation services. After Ford said it would reward shareholders with a $1 billion special dividend, shares fell 5 percent the next day. http://www.autonews.com/article/20160125/OEM/301259958/no-love-for-ford-on-wall-street One analyst, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, went so far as to compare Ford's talk of "huge opportunity" in a world of shared and self-driving vehicles to bullishness from Kodak, Blockbuster and other companies that crashed when new technology left them behind. Automakers are facing potential competition from businesses they have never had to be concerned with until now. "I can't spin that positively," Jonas said this month at the Automotive News World Congress. "The stock market's like 'Hey, we've seen this before. This industry is incredibly ripe for disruption. The disruption's probably not going to come from the 100-year-old mechanical legacy.'" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pioneer Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It also doesn't help that Ford printed millions of shares to pay for things during the downturn. A buyback would do wonders. Glad I sold mine years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So they're worried that Ford will be left behind on electric vehicles because they haven't announced anything new in that area. So what is more important? Maintaining a competitive advantage by not announcing your future plans to your competitors or satisfying the analysts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So they're worried that Ford will be left behind on electric vehicles because they haven't announced anything new in that area. So what is more important? Maintaining a competitive advantage by not announcing your future plans to your competitors or satisfying the analysts? Sounds like a few members here and elsewhere.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I love how Ford is being compared to Blockbuster. Because building cars is comparable to renting intellectual property. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) I love how Ford is being compared to Blockbuster. Because building cars is comparable to renting intellectual property. It gives us insight into the minds concocting this malarky. Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley is going to work on Ford flapping his gums about what he thinks he knows were expected to believe this guy because he's linked to MS who completely missed the oncoming storm of subprime lending Edited January 25, 2016 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aneekr Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I love how Ford is being compared to Blockbuster. Because building cars is comparable to renting intellectual property. I was thinking the same thing regarding Blockbuster LLC. That was an interesting one. The comparison with Kodak, particularly during the era of Antonio M. Pérez as Chairman and CEO, is more appropriate. I'll be on the earnings call this Thursday. Here are some tidbits that I wrote down (much of it gleaned from MarketWatch) : Concern that U.S. car sales may have peaked in 2015 Weakening demand in emerging markets such as China Prediction for 4th quarter earnings by FactSet: $0.48 per share Predictions for 4th quarter revenue: $36.4 billion (FactSet); $35.9 billion (Estimize) Performance of F since beginning of 2016: -14% (S&P 500 was -6.7% in the same period) Performance of F over last 12 months: -20% (S&P 500 was -8% in the same period) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) For is never going to be a hit and run stock so I don't know what the market is expecting here. We have a situation where we know things are in the pipe in relation to a huge increase in production capacity and product releases in a couple of years time but until Ford shouts that from the roof tops the market sees nothing really to hang its hat on. This is so funny to watch, almost a re run of the 2006 to 2008 restructuring sales calls where quarter after quarter, the market bet against Ford and then the price jumped after surprising results. How and analysts be so wrong so many times. Maybe Ford sales calls should be more like Tesla, :"Our earnings are not as bad as they look.." Edited January 25, 2016 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 For one thing, I don't get all the analysts bent out of shape over Ford stock...the company's stock is firmly controlled by the family and there is no way of affecting it through external ways. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerLS Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So what is more important? Maintaining a competitive advantage by not announcing your future plans to your competitors or satisfying the analysts? Well, obviously the answer is "satisfying analysts." They're probably just butthurt that Ford didn't announce their big deal making cars for Google at CES like they were predicting. Q: What do you call 1,000 analysts at the bottom of the ocean? A: A good start. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 For one thing, I don't get all the analysts bent out of shape over Ford stock...the company's stock is firmly controlled by the family and there is no way of affecting it through external ways. Maybe that's what irks them, no way to influence the day to day running of Ford. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 isn't Ford developing a unique Hybrid/ electric chassis?....theres also strong rumors of a Hybrid TRUCK drivetrain y reason they would dinged on EV architecture would that they had no idea. Ford keeps lot of info close to their chest, more so lately than I can remember..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) comparison with Kodak I don't think comparison with Kodak is appropriate either. What happened with Kodak? Kodak was not heavily invested in photography, they were heavily invested in film. Unlike, say, Canon or Nikon, which made optics which were translatable to digital photography, Kodak's business model involved a very particular way of recording an image. Does anyone realistically believe that vehicular transportation is going to go from incredibly complicated, difficult to consistently build assemblages of parts which are expected to function reliably for 10+ years to some other system in which Ford has little to no experience? "But self driving cars!" I hear people say. First of all, that technology has been thoroughly overhyped. Secondly, even if there is a complex computer acting in place of the driver, it will still be a car. And Ford, along with a very very small cadre of companies, knows how to build cars reliably. "But vehicle electrification!" This is even less of a problem for Ford. Being upset at Ford because they are not launching a Tesla competitor when Tesla can't even make money on their own products is ridiculous. The important thing is that Ford stays current with the technology so that when the market shifts they can move. It does not mean that they have to be a market leader right this very instant. Right now the market doesn't want all electric vehicles, but sooner or later that's going to happen, probably, and when that time comes, Ford needs to be "in the game." ---- I do not generally agree with Pete D.'s sweeping generalizations. One of my few exceptions is when he talks about the lack of appreciation for the difficulty of mass producing cars. It is incredibly difficult to do what Ford, Toyota, GM, Honda, etc. do. There are quite literally tens of thousands of years of cumulative experience required to produce and sell a 150k+ mile/10+ year lifespan vehicle profitably on six continents. To assume that Google can "disrupt" that industry because they built a pocket sized experiment that can navigate around a painstakingly mapped section of San Francisco all by itself......... that's quite frankly an insult to everyone that works in this business from the executive office right down to the guys on the line bolting the dang things together. Edited January 25, 2016 by RichardJensen 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosetang Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think there are plenty of legitimate areas to criticize Ford's EV strategy and maybe it's strategy more broadly, but that article does a pretty poor job. Maybe that's what irks them, no way to influence the day to day running of Ford.This is no small part of it. Similarly, when you see a company buy back its majority control or even go private the stock people automatically label it as a desperation move. And don't get them started about companies which put off their IPO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Concern that U.S. car sales may have peaked in 2015 That's a distinct possibility. At the same time, among the UAW mfrs, Ford has done the most to ensure profitability at lower volumes. FCA would not be profitable in an 11M unit/year market, and GM would be touch and go--depending on how many gigantic SUVs they were selling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 self driving cars...no thankyou..I BET Im not the only one 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 self driving cars...no thankyou..I BET Im not the only one You sir, would be correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 (edited) Ford doesn't have to spill the beans but I think the lack of news on electric vehicle front the last 2 years have shaped the perception that the company is resting on its laurels having raced ahead of its rivals on PHEV. Perception is mostly reality when it comes to stock market... everyone buys on rumors and sell on news. Ford has not worked the rumor mill very hard the last 18 months on the EV front. Ford probably should have shown the dedicated PHEV in concept form at Detroit this year. If anything, just to blunt the media fawning over Hyundai's very credible Ioniq. Edited January 25, 2016 by bzcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 isn't Ford developing a unique Hybrid/ electric chassis?....theres also strong rumors of a Hybrid TRUCK drivetrain y reason they would dinged on EV architecture would that they had no idea. Ford keeps lot of info close to their chest, more so lately than I can remember..... Perhaps the product is not performing to expectations so that's why you aren't hearing much of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ford probably should have shown the dedicated PHEV in concept form at Detroit this year. If anything, just to blunt the media fawning over Hyundai's very credible Ioniq. I really didn't hear or read much about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I really didn't hear or read much about it. Same here. Everything I read about it had more to do with the looks rather than the technology Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ford doesn't have to spill the beans but I think the lack of news on electric vehicle front the last 2 years have shaped the perception that the company is resting on its laurels having raced ahead of its rivals on PHEV. Perception is mostly reality when it comes to stock market... everyone buys on rumors and sell on news. Ford has not worked the rumor mill very hard the last 18 months on the EV front. Ford probably should have shown the dedicated PHEV in concept form at Detroit this year. If anything, just to blunt the media fawning over Hyundai's very credible Ioniq. There is always New York and Chicago, although Ford doesn't seem to be tied to auto shows to make those kinds of announcements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 (edited) Anyone want to speculate what happens to stock price after Ford announces 2015 financial results? Will the market be shocked that once again Ford delivers a return equal to or better than GM's nett figure.all with less cars sold. Edited January 26, 2016 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Does it really matter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 (edited) Does it really matter? Yes because I love to see these experts contort themselves into praising Ford's "surprising" result..... They want to criticize for for having no clear path forward and yet, the company keeps banging out good profits..I t's so funny listening to the critics back flipping on a sales call or better, a quarterly report, Edited January 26, 2016 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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