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2005Explorer

Considering buying some Ford Stock

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So I think we all know you’ll never get rich off Ford stock, but with it being so low right now ($8.10 a share) I’m thinking about buying some. I honestly believe they have some great new products in the pipeline like Bronco, Bronco Sport, Mach E and an updated F-Series and I only see it going up in the next year or two. What do you guys think?

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What are your goals? Are you expecting big growth and planning to sell afterwards?  Or are you interested in dividend payments?

Me, I've recently gotten really big into dividend investing, and since I've already got a lot of F stock that takes up most of my position. This is a good time to jump in; my average purchase price is around $11.80, so I'm down almost 29%! On the plus side, I've made about half of that back so far, and going forward I've got a decent sized dividend check to reinvest into more F and other dividend stocks.

I'm hopeful as you are, that once the new products come out the share price will eventually come back, so personally I do plan to buy more before that happens. I am concerned about the next recession and whether or not Ford can  survive it, but as long as that happens after the launches then I think we'll be good.

For me with Ford right now, the biggest concern is Ford maintaining the dividend. Long term, it would be great if they could start increasing it.

Edited by probowler

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I would recommend against buying stocks because they are low in price; it's a great way to lose money.  I was one of the ones that was buying Ford way back when it was in the $1 to $2 range back in 2008/2009, and continued buying on the way up thinking it was going back to $20-30/share.  I made some good money initially, but I lost a lot also by continuing to hold and hope for the best.  This stock has been terrible since 2014, and I don't see things getting better any time soon.  I have actually done far better in the last several years by selling off chunks of my Ford holdings and diversifying into other companies such as Microsoft, Intel, and Johnson & Johnson.  Ford is considered very undervalued right now, so if you are going to take out a speculative position I don't think it will hurt, but don't expect to get rich off it.  Auto stocks, especially mature companies like Ford, are just not very good investments in general.  And Ford is even more difficult because the Ford family has so much control over the shares (which is great to keep the company family owned, but not necessarily good for stockholders).

 

Add in the unknown effects of the coronavirus on China sales and the global economy; there are just way too many risks to the auto industry right now.

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4 hours ago, mustang84isu said:

And Ford is even more difficult because the Ford family has so much control over the shares (which is great to keep the company family owned, but not necessarily good for stockholders).

It's very good for the company insofar as it keeps out vulture capitalists like Carl Icahn and the institutional investors who might try to apply pressure on the company to do stuff that's in their (the stockholders') interests, not in the company's. (Seriously, Icahn tried to get Dell to take out loans against future profits and pay that out to investors when Michael Dell was trying to take the company private again.)

 

The flip side of that is it will keep their stock prices artificially depressed because the big/institutional investors want control, but Ford's stock structure keeps control in the hands of the family whose name is on the company.

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Depends on how much you want to invest-I bought a couple hundred bucks worth of stock and just take the dividends and reinvest it into more F stock. I'm still about 20-25 years out from retiring and I don't have much expectations for the stock. its not going to be me buying Amazon at $300 a share and it being $2K now. I'm more a long term/retirement investor, not a get rich quick/day trader. 

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I don't think there's a rush, as, recession aside, the stock probably won't move up strongly until 2021 -- and only then if the new product proves as good as we hope it will be. But I did recently buy a bunch more at around $8.28. I have a couple of previous buys just above and just below the $9 mark. However, even if it stays stuck at this level for a good while it is a heck of an income generator with dividends currently at 7.41%. I moved the funds out of money market and bond investments that today barely earn 2%.

 

So in short, buy it for good income. Don't buy it expecting any kind of rapid capital gains (though it's a possibility in the medium term). Plan to hold it for at least a couple of years -- or longer if we move into a recession.

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This is a rehash of multi-source info coming out on the Bronco/Bronco Sport, but from a stock investor site's perspective. Note the final para below "assuming Ford delivers" (Bronco + F150 redesign) talks about delivering increased profits next year. Not 2020. So plan on having to wait a little longer, even if all goes well.

-----------------

"What it means for Ford investors

"Ford has made it clear that these aren't going to be low-volume, niche products. Dealers were told that Ford expects sales of the "Bronco family," including both the Bronco and the Bronco Sport, to exceed 200,000 units a year right away, starting in 2021. That's an aggressive number, but it's not outrageous. Consider that in 2019, Fiat Chrysler sold 228,000 Wranglers, another 40,000 examples of the closely related Gladiator pickup, and almost 144,000 Compasses.

 

"More to the point for investors, the hope is that the new Broncos will give Ford's margin in North America a much-needed boost. Ford's operating margin in its home region slipped to just 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019, as high incentives and ongoing product-line shuffles eroded its once-strong profitability. 

 

"The new Broncos are key parts of a broader product revamp that CEO Jim Hackett hopes will boost the region's profitability significantly over the next couple of years. They're probably not the most important parts of that effort -- the all-new F-150 pickup, coming late this year, will be the biggest contributor -- but Ford's sales-volume expectations and its commitment to a robust line of accessories make clear that the new off-roaders are expected to make significant contributions to profitability.

 

"Assuming that Ford delivers strong products (likely), and that new-vehicle demand in the U.S. remains robust (less certain), auto investors should expect the new Broncos to make a nice positive contribution to Ford's margins next year."

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/17/revealed-fords-plan-to-go-big-with-the-bronco.aspx

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4 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

"The new Broncos are key parts of a broader product revamp that CEO Jim Hackett hopes will boost the region's profitability significantly over the next couple of years. They're probably not the most important parts of that effort -- the all-new F-150 pickup, coming late this year, will be the biggest contributor -- but Ford's sales-volume expectations and its commitment to a robust line of accessories make clear that the new off-roaders are expected to make significant contributions to profitability.

 

"Assuming that Ford delivers strong products (likely), and that new-vehicle demand in the U.S. remains robust (less certain), auto investors should expect the new Broncos to make a nice positive contribution to Ford's margins next year."

 

Its just nice to see Ford coming out with new product in segments that it doesn't compete in. New/refreshed products are good, but if your chopping your products and not introducing something new to go after growing/niche segments to make up for loss of volume...well makes you go hmmmm. I think we'll finally see a turn around with Ford by the end of the year, as long as the F-150 launch goes smoothly, which it should, outside of external pressures. 

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16 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

"Assuming that Ford delivers strong products (likely), and that new-vehicle demand in the U.S. remains robust (less certain), auto investors should expect the new Broncos to make a nice positive contribution to Ford's margins next year."

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/17/revealed-fords-plan-to-go-big-with-the-bronco.aspx

WOW !  Talk about "blowing sunshine up a hole in the nether regions" !

 

Based on the past couple of launches, I don't expect this launch (Bronco) to be "flawless".  It IS within Ford's control, but ...  Neither Farley or Hackett have a good track record as leaders !  If something does go bad, it is a short drive for hundreds of engineers in Dearborn to get to the Wayne plant.

 

The one thing Ford does NOT have any control over and is making the worldwide economy very nervous is the novel coronavirus (NoCOVID-19).  Ford is already scrambling trying make new tooling and line up suppliers outside of China for some parts (likely for F150 and Explorer).  This worked when one their key supplier had a factory fire a couple of years ago, but this would be bigger.  (After the fire, some dies were recovered and shipped to other plants.)  If the economy tanks or there are launch problems, you can bet the dividend will be cut !

 

Capture.thumb.JPG.6e7f8d8b8411c41d21531360b45cdd28.JPG

 

I certainly would NOT be investing in F at the moment.  MO would be a better bet for a good dividend stock. 

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33 minutes ago, theoldwizard said:

MO would be a better bet for a good dividend stock. 

 

Yeah lets support a company that the end result of its use is cancer! 

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43 minutes ago, theoldwizard said:

WOW !  Talk about "blowing sunshine up a hole in the nether regions" !

 

Based on the past couple of launches, I don't expect this launch (Bronco) to be "flawless".  It IS within Ford's control, but ...  Neither Farley or Hackett have a good track record as leaders !

 

Big difference with Bronco - they are not replacing an existing model and they have plenty of room in the plant to do pilot builds.   Should be no different than the Ranger launch.

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19 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Yeah lets support a company that the end result of its use is cancer! 

Since not everyone who smokes gets cancer, your statement is false.

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1 hour ago, probowler said:

Since not everyone who smokes gets cancer, your statement is false.

 

So heart disease, stroke or emphysema doesn't count either? 

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5 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

So heart disease, stroke or emphysema doesn't count either? 

Hey, I didn't say it was good for ya! But people do a lot of unhealthy shit. Fast food, Soda, couch potato lifestyles...  I'm just saying don't hate on mcdonalds or marboro lights for making something people want.  Maybe it's addictive, I don't know, I don't really care. I've smoked cigs and stogs before, and never got hooked 🤷‍♂️

Back to the original topic, a good investment is a good investment!  I have MO as well, and plan to get more.

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22 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Yeah lets support a company that the end result of its use is cancer! 

Its a free world.  You may choose to step off of the curb in front of a bus !  They are also into non-tobacco products.

 

(BTW - Both parent died from diseases brought on by years of smoking.)

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On 2/15/2020 at 8:40 PM, 2005Explorer said:

So I think we all know you’ll never get rich off Ford stock, but with it being so low right now ($8.10 a share) I’m thinking about buying some. I honestly believe they have some great new products in the pipeline like Bronco, Bronco Sport, Mach E and an updated F-Series and I only see it going up in the next year or two. What do you guys think?

 

So who's buying if it hits $7.50?

 

HRG

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7 minutes ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

So who's buying if it hits $7.50?

 

HRG

 

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Almost bought more today... but I'm going to be patient this week and see if the corona panic gets more panicky.  Exon and Shell are down too for those who don't think fossil fules are ready to go the way of the dinosaurs.

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21 hours ago, probowler said:

Exon and Shell are down too for those who don't think fossil fules are ready to go the way of the dinosaurs.

 

So what your trying to say is oil is gonna turn back in Dinosaurs?

 

image.jpeg.3a2e4bd60df0267fd1b3f11705d5d31b.jpeg

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$7.22, 1-1/2 hours left in trading today,,,,,,  WTF!

 

But hey, the dividend yield looks good. If they cut the dividend, who know how far it will fall.

 

HRG

Edited by HotRunrGuy

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4 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said:

$7.22, 1-1/2 hours left in trading today,,,,,,  WTF!

 

Market wide decline. DJIA down 3%, S&P 500 down 2.7%. Apparently COVID-19 virus is impacting entire economies around the world.

 

Poor performance of F for the past 5 years are due to lots of organizational problems at Ford that have yet to be fixed.

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