US proposes to slash EV mileage ratings to meet fuel economy rules

[silvrsvt]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-proposes-slash-ev-mileage-ratings-meet-fuel-economy-rules-2023-04-11/

 

 

"Encouraging adoption of EVs can reduce petroleum consumption but giving too much credit for that adoption can lead to increased net petroleum use because it enables lower fuel economy among conventional vehicles, which represent by far the majority of vehicles sold," DOE said in its proposed regulation.

 

A Volkswagen  ID.4 EV with a current 380.6 MPGe under CAFE would get 107.4 MPGe under the DOE proposal, while a Ford (F.N) F-150 EV drops from 237.1 to 67.1 MPGe and Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid falls from 88.2 to 59.5 MPGe.

 

This would basically push Hybrids/PHEV out of the market, because their fuel usage ratings are too high vs what they actually do and actually show how inefficient larger BEVs like the Hummer and Lightning can be. 

[fuzzymoomoo]

And people got mad at me for saying the government was pushing BEVs on us ?

[silvrsvt]

50 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

And people got mad at me for saying the government was pushing BEVs on us ?

 

But it also pushed unleaded gas and catalytic converters too almost 50 years ago...and EFI to a lesser extent...all items that have had push back on them because they where new and different. 

 

A PHEV is no better then a HEV if it doesn't get charged. They don't really save that much more in the way of gas, unless you use them in a particular circumstances like stop and go driving.

[Willwll313wll]

2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

And people got mad at me for saying the government was pushing BEVs on us ?

 

I'm pushing for them to push it on us. It's like when they pushed seatbelts on us, I think its in our best interest to do so! 

[rperez817]

5 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-proposes-slash-ev-mileage-ratings-meet-fuel-economy-rules-2023-04-11/

 

This would basically push Hybrids/PHEV out of the market, because their fuel usage ratings are too high vs what they actually do and actually show how inefficient larger BEVs like the Hummer and Lightning can be. 

 

The proposal mentioned in the Reuters article to update PEF calculations for BEV is long overdue. More details here. Federal Register :: Petroleum Equivalence Factor, Notification of Petition for Rulemaking

 

Another issue with CAFE more generally is that it uses inflated unadjusted FE numbers for all powertrain types, not the more realistic values shown to consumers on a Monroney label. Examples involving Ford products.

• 2023 Ranger 2WD: 23 MPG combined (window sticker); 31 MPG combined (unadjusted for CAFE)
• 2023 Escape Hybrid: 39 MPG combined (window sticker); 56 MPG combined (unadjusted for CAFE)
• 2023 Mustang Mach-E GT: 84 MPGe combined (window sticker); 120 MPGe combined (unadjusted for CAFE prior to multipliers including PEF)

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

Another issue with CAFE more generally is that it uses inflated unadjusted FE numbers for all powertrain types, not the more realistic values shown to consumers on a Monroney label. Examples involving Ford products.

 

That is due to the way the law is written...they can't change the standard (easily I guess) that they used in 1978 or whenever CAFE came into being...the window sticker ratings have changed a few times since then. 

[Trader 10]

7 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

But it also pushed unleaded gas and catalytic converters too almost 50 years ago...and EFI to a lesser extent...all items that have had push back on them because they where new and different. 

 

 

You’re suggesting leaded to unleaded gas and carburetors to fuel injection are comparable changes to gasoline to electric?

[tbone]

8 hours ago, Willwll313wll said:

 

I'm pushing for them to push it on us. It's like when they pushed seatbelts on us, I think its in our best interest to do so! 

Wow, I don’t even know what to say to this. This is satire right?

Edited April 12, 2023 by tbone

[silvrsvt]

13 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

You’re suggesting leaded to unleaded gas and carburetors to fuel injection are comparable changes to gasoline to electric?

 

From a pollution and fuel economy standpoint, yes...not to mention unleaded gas and EFI also allowed huge improvement in performance and gas economy in cars. Most small CUVs with a Turbo 2L I4 are as fast as muscle cars in the 1/4 mile from the late 1960s. 

 

Or how about this...why isn't there more Diesel engines then Gas engines in light duty vehicles? Because it's either too hard or too expensive to make them work in the current framework of emissions regulation, even though they technically get better gas mileage (without the additional pollution controls)

 

The biggest issue with EV vs Gas is range and cost. Range isn't an issue for the most part if you can charge at home or don't drive extended distances in a single day. Cost will come as battery production is increased and different materials come into play. 

The best way I can put this is the adoption of Cell phones and them replacing landlines. You got affordable options for a cell phone in the late 1990s, even though they where more expensive than a landline. Cell coverage was spotty at best at the start and you had other issues. About 25 years later I have a handheld PC that I can talk on and can get download speeds that are faster than some peoples' broadband options at home for roughly the same price in service. We are at the flip cell phone with a built in keyboard stage when it comes to BEVs. In the next 10 years, things will be completely different. 

Edited April 12, 2023 by silvrsvt

[rmc523]

On 4/11/2023 at 1:08 PM, silvrsvt said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-proposes-slash-ev-mileage-ratings-meet-fuel-economy-rules-2023-04-11/

 

 

 

 

 

This would basically push Hybrids/PHEV out of the market, because their fuel usage ratings are too high vs what they actually do and actually show how inefficient larger BEVs like the Hummer and Lightning can be. 

 

I'm not understanding - how is lowering the ratings going to help push people into a product?

[silvrsvt]

5 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I'm not understanding - how is lowering the ratings going to help push people into a product?

Easy-auto makers won’t make them because they won’t be able to make CAFE using them. 

[Havelock]

5 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I'm not understanding - how is lowering the ratings going to help push people into a product?

I don't see annual US sales staying anywhere near 10-13 million with this rush to electrics.  New cars are becoming a thing only rich people can afford, like the pre-Model T era.

[rperez817]

6 hours ago, rmc523 said:

I'm not understanding - how is lowering the ratings going to help push people into a product?

 

The PEF calculation methodologies used for CAFE substantially overstate the true energy efficiency of BEV (and to a lesser extent, hybrids as well). This allows automakers to meet CAFE standards by selling only a very small number of BEV, and thereby get away with vehicle lineups that favor relatively inefficient models, particularly ICE powered pickup trucks and SUVs.

 

As such, the proposal mentioned in the original post would encourage automakers to sell more BEV in order to comply with CAFE. 

 

The petition to Department of Energy mentioned the following.

Quote

DOE's regulations for calculating CAFE program fuel economy values for EVs are long overdue to be updated. Statute requires the agency to “review those values each year and determine and propose necessary revisions” based on the enumerated statutory factors.

The regulations have not been updated in more than twenty years and the data underlying the extant regulations are materially—and increasingly—inaccurate. Further, the statute requires that the equivalency values be “based on” the statutory factors.

The extant EV equivalency values are instead based on other statutory provisions applicable to gaseous fueled vehicles, with the consequence that EV CAFE values are driven by the seven-fold multiplier of the “fuel content factor” rather than the statutory factors applicable to EVs. The effect is that EV CAFE values are significantly inflated beyond what the relevant statutory factors contemplate.

The consequences of outdated regulations are not academic. Because NHTSA is prohibited from considering the fuel economy of EVs when determining the maximum feasible CAFE standards for a given model year, but must include EVs when calculating compliance with those standards, excessively high imputed fuel economy values for EVs means that a relatively small number of EVs will mathematically guarantee compliance without meaningful improvements in the real-world average fuel economy of automakers' overall fleets.

Edited April 13, 2023 by rperez817

[Dequindre]

The attack on the lower and middle classes continues. Do proponents of this not realize, or not care, how detrimental this is to lower and middle class households? I find that the people who scream the most about "equity" fail to realize how horribly inequitable this is. Vehicle ownership is becoming an unattainable luxury for many. 

[rperez817]

43 minutes ago, Dequindre said:

Do proponents of this not realize, or not care, how detrimental this is to lower and middle class households?

 

It's the status quo that is detrimental to lower- and middle-class households, not the proposal mentioned in the original post. Artificially high CAFE numbers result in automakers producing vehicles that are considerably less efficient than they should be, saddling consumers with higher operating costs.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Dequindre said:

The attack on the lower and middle classes continues. Do proponents of this not realize, or not care, how detrimental this is to lower and middle class households? I find that the people who scream the most about "equity" fail to realize how horribly inequitable this is. Vehicle ownership is becoming an unattainable luxury for many. 

How much did microwaves cost in 1990 vs 2010?  Or big screen TVs in 2000 vs today?  Costs will come down steadily before anyone is forced to buy a BEV.

[silvrsvt]

8 hours ago, Dequindre said:

The attack on the lower and middle classes continues. Do proponents of this not realize, or not care, how detrimental this is to lower and middle class households? I find that the people who scream the most about "equity" fail to realize how horribly inequitable this is. Vehicle ownership is becoming an unattainable luxury for many. 

 

It already is...the average cost of a new car is right around $50K with it only being 30K about 10 years ago. Average used car price is $20-25K.

 

The days of being able to buy a 5-7 year old car for $2500 happened 30+ years ago

 

Just as an example-

 

I sold my four year old 1998 Mustang GT in 2002 for like 3-4K 

 

I traded in my 2002 SVT Focus for my 2006 Mustang GT (29K for the Mustang) and got 5K for it.

I winded up selling my 2006 Mustang GT in 2017 and I got $6000 for it...with it being 11 years old!

 

I sold my SHO in 2021 to Carvana and I got $11500 for it for an 8 year old car that had 100K on it.

 

I winded up buying my Brother in laws Fusion hybrid after my shitshow with my Bronco. I got it cheap (Tesla offered him $1000) and I winded up reselling it last may and I got $3500 for a car that was almost 13 years old with 215K miles on it!

The last two examples aren't exactly the best since it happened during COVID, but it ultimately boils down to a couple things with car prices-Cash for Clunkers years back killed the used car market and manufactures aren't dumping production into rental fleets like there doing 20-25 years ago, so was a glut of used cars keeping the prices down. 

 

On the flipside-if you own a car now, you'll get a better trade in if you want a new car, but if your just getting into the market, its going to be a bitch. 

[silvrsvt]

Some more info from the EPA end of things

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2023/04/12/epa-unveiling-strongest-ever-auto-emissions-standards/70093593007/

[akirby]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

It already is...the average cost of a new car is right around $50K with it only being 30K about 10 years ago. Average used car price is $20-25K.

Here we go again.  For every $75k vehicle sold there are $25k vehicles being sold.  The avg went up because of higher priced trucks and SUVs and less discounting due to the pandemic.  The low end still starts around $20k.

 

You can’t transition to BEVs without $25K BEVs.  We’ll get there in due time.

[silvrsvt]

40 minutes ago, akirby said:

Here we go again.  For every $75k vehicle sold there are $25k vehicles being sold.  The avg went up because of higher priced trucks and SUVs and less discounting due to the pandemic.  The low end still starts around $20k.

 

https://clark.com/cars/average-new-car-price/

 

 

Using that chart and this

https://fordauthority.com/2021/11/2022-ford-maverick-average-selling-price-was-29k-in-october-report/

The Average price of a Maverick is closer to 30K then its 22K starting price. 

Also consider that Ford doesn't offer a compact/mid/full sized car either, drives the prices up even more and doesn't take away from the fact that the average price still has gone up $20K in 11 years.

Another chart-

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183745/average-price-of-us-new-and-used-vehicle-sales-and-leases-since-1990/

So since 2010, the price of a new car has basically doubled using this chart-in 2010 is was roughly $27K average for a new car, in todays dollars.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by silvrsvt

[akirby]

What is the average of these 5 prices?

 

$23k

$23k

$24k

$25k

$32k

$34k

$37k

$40k

 

Its $30k.  Yet half of the sales were $25k or less.   Averages don’t tell you the lowest prices or how many were sold at the lower prices.   You can’t ignore sub $30k vehicles because it’s a huge part of the overall market and all a lot of people can afford.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by akirby

[silvrsvt]

38 minutes ago, akirby said:

Yet half of the sales were $25k or less.   Averages don’t tell you the lowest prices or how many were sold at the lower prices.   You can’t ignore sub $30k vehicles because it’s a huge part of the overall market and all a lot of people can afford.

 

The issue is that outside of the Maverick, but "entry" level Products, the Escape and Bronco Sport start at the $28 and 29K mark and the Ranger starts at $27K, speaking from a Ford perspective....

 

I was looking at other makers offerings and outside of Kia, the vast majority of them offer products that start at that $24-25K mark. Given the market is heavily towards CUV and Truck market (80%), which are bit more expensive, the average should be even higher with the actual starting point being north of 30K.  

 

[fuzzymoomoo]

55 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

The issue is that outside of the Maverick, but "entry" level Products, the Escape and Bronco Sport start at the $28 and 29K mark and the Ranger starts at $27K, speaking from a Ford perspective....

And those “entry level” priced models are unobtanium 

[Havelock]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

What is the average of these 5 prices?

 

$23k

$23k

$24k

$25k

$32k

$34k

$37k

$40k

 

Its $30k.  Yet half of the sales were $25k or less.   Averages don’t tell you the lowest prices or how many were sold at the lower prices.   You can’t ignore sub $30k vehicles because it’s a huge part of the overall market and all a lot of people can afford.

 

Please look at what is actually available for low prices.  A large Ford dealership having different locations near me has almost 1,500 new Ford's listed on their website.  Only 2 were under 30k.  Three more were under 35k.  They were 2022 Escapes with large discounts.  Affordable vehicles are gone.  5/1,500 are under $35k.

[silvrsvt]

Well some good news about pricing:

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-falls-below-sticker-for-first-time-in-almost-2-years/

Non-luxury buyers paid an average of $44,182.

The price drop showed up at nearly every sales lot. Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, and Volkswagen all saw their average price decline between 0.2% to 3.8% month over month in March.

 

So lets do some math:

Mustang
$27,770 

Escape

$28,000 
Bronco Sport
$29,215
Bronco

 $34,595 
Explorer
$36,760 
2023 Ford Edge

$37,945
Mustang Mach-E
45,995
Expedition
$55,125

Maverick
$22,595
2023 Ford Ranger
$27,400
F-150
$34,445

 

The Average starting MSRP for Ford products listed above is roughly $31K...I didn't use the Super Duty or Vans in pricing.