What Customers Really Want

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

and Ford only lead sales if enough people actually want to buy their BEVs…..

 

Ill be curious to see what September sales are like, hoping Mach E and Lightning have a good month but not surprised if that doesn’t happen 

 

 

To get enough people to actually want to buy their BEVs, Ford must do exactly what was stated in its own EV strategy press release, harness "electrification to deliver more of what customers love about them: Performance, capability and productivity". And do it better than competitors.

 

The successful introductions of Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, and E-Transit since 2021 proves Ford has the ability to achieve that goal. Nowadays the company is at a critical juncture where its efforts need to be amped up (pun intended) across the entire product, services, and software portfolio.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by rperez817

[DeluxeStang]

12 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

Regarding future EV pricing being more affordable, I'll believe it when I see it, especially after whatever the terms are with a new UAW contract. 

Affordable EVs that ride on their own bespoke platform, those are dead. But Ford's renewed emphasis on widespread platform, parts sharing, and  scaling up EV production should make an affordable EV offering more sustainable for a brand. 

[DeluxeStang]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

To get enough people to actually want to buy their BEVs, Ford must do exactly what was stated in its own EV strategy press release, harness "electrification to deliver more of what customers love about them: Performance, capability and productivity". And do it better than competitors.

 

The successful introductions of Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, and E-Transit since 2021 proves Ford has the ability to achieve that goal. Nowadays the company is at a critical juncture where its efforts need to be amped up (pun intended) across the entire product, services, and software portfolio.

 

Ford's EVs are off to a strong start, especially for their first wave of dedicated electric vehicles. But it's very unlikely Ford will transition to an EV only brand within the next 20 years or so. There are just a ton of factors slowing down the widespread adoption of EVs. 

 

Cost is a huge one, EVs are obviously pretty expensive right now, that means your core demographic of buyers would be wealthy, middle age and elderly buyers, living largely in coastal areas. In terms of psychographics, you're looking at people who are generally more progressive, and risk takers, people willing to bet on new and emerging technologies. 

 

The issue is those characteristics are often at odds with one another. Many older buyers are more cautious, less comfortable with new ideas and change. 

 

I live in Utah, people here are generally open to tech and new ideas, Mormons are some of the wealthiest people out there, and we have one of the youngest populations of any state in the country. If EVs were gonna explode anywhere aside from coastal states, it would be here. Yet, you almost never see EVs here. 

 

I see a few mach-e's a week, two Toyota EVs on the last 6 months, a few lightnings, maybe 15 Tesla's a week, and the occasional VW EV CUV thing, as well as a few hummer and Rivian EVs, but that's about it. That's mostly in SLC or the surrounding suburbs like Draper, where people have money to burn. 

 

The deck is stacked in favor of EV adoption here, and they're still struggling to suceed, that's a problem. 

[akirby]

6 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Affordable EVs that ride on their own bespoke platform, those are dead. But Ford's renewed emphasis on widespread platform, parts sharing, and  scaling up EV production should make an affordable EV offering more sustainable for a brand. 

It’s going to take next Gen batteries and higher volumes to bring prices down sub $30k.

[silvrsvt]

6 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Ford's EVs are off to a strong start, especially for their first wave of dedicated electric vehicles. But it's very unlikely Ford will transition to an EV only brand within the next 20 years or so. There are just a ton of factors slowing down the widespread adoption of EVs. 

 

Cost is a huge one, EVs are obviously pretty expensive right now, that means your core demographic of buyers would be wealthy, middle age and elderly buyers, living largely in coastal areas. In terms of psychographics, you're looking at people who are generally more progressive, and risk takers, people willing to bet on new and emerging technologies. 

 

The issue is those characteristics are often at odds with one another. Many older buyers are more cautious, less comfortable with new ideas and change. 

 

I live in Utah, people here are generally open to tech and new ideas, Mormons are some of the wealthiest people out there, and we have one of the youngest populations of any state in the country. If EVs were gonna explode anywhere aside from coastal states, it would be here. Yet, you almost never see EVs here. 

 

I see a few mach-e's a week, two Toyota EVs on the last 6 months, a few lightnings, maybe 15 Tesla's a week, and the occasional VW EV CUV thing, as well as a few hummer and Rivian EVs, but that's about it. That's mostly in SLC or the surrounding suburbs like Draper, where people have money to burn. 

 

The deck is stacked in favor of EV adoption here, and they're still struggling to suceed, that's a problem. 

 

The county I live in is in the top 1.2 of wealth in the US and our population is "older" (average age is 43) and we have a pretty decent penetration of EVs....Targets are getting or have level 2 chargers and Wawas (think 7-11 but far better) are getting Tesla SuperChargers installed at them. A near by Outlet mall has Tesla and I think Electrified America chargers at them. Also most of the housing in the area has at least 150-200 Amp service, so its easier to charge at home. 

 

I keep saying this but the sweet spot is when someone can come out with an Escape sized package that can go 250-300 miles on a charge, charge to about 80% in 20-30 minutes from less than 5% and cost about $40K and still make a profit for its maker...that is going to what is going to change the EV landscape. I'm shocked that it seems like no one is trying that...but I'm guessing with the price of battery cells is making that very hard to do now. 

[AM222]

13 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Unfortunately, Ford has no interest in building Puma in a second plant, it’s maddening that China is on our back door and we can’t get any RHD builds from there either 

I know some Chinese car brands like BYD and MG have expanded to RHD markets.

Ford is a step behind by limiting Ford China exports to LHD (IMG) markets (like the Philippines, Cambodia, Middle East, South America, & Mexico). *Ford Vietnam assembles the JMC-Ford Territory for its domestic market.

PS: I forgot to add USA and Canada to the list because the new Nautilus is from China.



 

Edited September 26, 2023 by AM222
added info

[Rick73]

Korea EV sales are down this year, so new subsidies are being used to increase demand.  Title of a “price war” seems misleading to me.  In any case, lower EV sales in a country that produces so many models is a little surprising.

 

 

https://electrek.co/2023/09/26/hyundai-kia-slash-ev-prices-amid-intensifying-price-war/
 

 

“EV sales in Korea slipped from 71,744 during the first eight months of 2022 to 67,654 this year. Korea’s new subsidies are designed to help stimulate demand.“

[DeluxeStang]

5 hours ago, akirby said:

It’s going to take next Gen batteries and higher volumes to bring prices down sub $30k.

Exactly, it's a ways off. We're gonna see the higher end product offerings with the thick profit margins being given development priority, especially as Ford is eager to turn a profit on their EVs as soon as possible. 

 

When/if we see an affordable EV from Ford, I did comment how their strategy of funky areo, and smaller batteries could work quite well for a cheaper product. Those smaller batteries will, of course, help to lower the price, and funky styling will help it stand out in the crowd of boring designs. That combination could appeal to a lot of people, especially younger buyers who want something fresh, and different. 

[DeluxeStang]

5 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I keep saying this but the sweet spot is when someone can come out with an Escape sized package that can go 250-300 miles on a charge, charge to about 80% in 20-30 minutes from less than 5% and cost about $40K and still make a profit for its maker...that is going to what is going to change the EV landscape. I'm shocked that it seems like no one is trying that...but I'm guessing with the price of battery cells is making that very hard to do now. 

Agreed, the issue I see as well, that isn't talked about frequently, is that most people interested in EVs currently are into tech, new features, things like that. They want a lot of content with their cars. Everyone says they want a cheap EV, but making a more affordable EV in this day and age would mean you would have to pull so much content out of the vehicle.

 

Consumers would look at a 40k escape EV with cloth seats, and a 8 inch screen, and complain that it didn't come with the standard leather seats and 12 inch screen that the 40k ICE crossover has. Everyone says they want cheap cars, but they don't want to accept that cheap cars are cheap. 

 

It's kinda like how everyone said they wanted an affordable truck. Then the maverick came along, and people complained that the interior had a lot of plastic, and the base model didn't have a ton of features. 

 

You make a cheap car, people bitch that it's cheap, and just buy the more expensive model anyways. 

[rmc523]

16 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

That's exactly where the global automotive industry's future lies, and where Ford has an opportunity to lead.

 

Your plan is:

 

Dump everything that makes $$$

?????

Profit!!!

 

 

 

You seem to have this notion that everyone is anti-BEV.  Nobody (well, most of us) is anti-EV......rather, we want Ford to tackle it in a measured approach that transitions over time by retaining and strengthening current ICE and HEV products that pay for everything, while developing stronger BEV products to compliment and eventually replace the ICE models that allow the company to stay in business.

This idea of dumping everything that pays for literally everything tomorrow just because "BEV=FUTUREEEEE" is beyond absurd.

[silvrsvt]

55 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

Agreed, the issue I see as well, that isn't talked about frequently, is that most people interested in EVs currently are into tech, new features, things like that. They want a lot of content with their cars. Everyone says they want a cheap EV, but making a more affordable EV in this day and age would mean you would have to pull so much content out of the vehicle.

 

Consumers would look at a 40k escape EV with cloth seats, and a 8 inch screen, and complain that it didn't come with the standard leather seats and 12 inch screen that the 40k ICE crossover has. Everyone says they want cheap cars, but they don't want to accept that cheap cars are cheap. 

 

It's kinda like how everyone said they wanted an affordable truck. Then the maverick came along, and people complained that the interior had a lot of plastic, and the base model didn't have a ton of features. 

 

You make a cheap car, people bitch that it's cheap, and just buy the more expensive model anyways. 

People bitch just to bitch too!

 

Lots of complaints about Ford's interior materials-but how much of it is actually legitimate vs it "doesn't look nice vs competition X" but the competition interior falls apart after 3-4 years?

 

Most EV interiors are more barebone looking vs ICE cars, which makes them look "Cheap"...Tesla's interiors give me a cheap Ikea vibe-very bland and seems to be cost cutting like in the Y with its center mounted IP. 

 

I don't see offering a larger screen in a affordable EV as being a big issue-the 12 inch display is more or less standard outside of the Maverick, Bronco Sport and lower end Escapes. Plus offering a large screen like what is in the Lightning and MachE is a bit cheaper then a bunch of buttons of HVAC/Heat seats etc. 

 

The biggest issue is the costs of battery cells at the moment. Hopefully that will come down with increased production of more battery cell with battery plants coming on line. 

[DeluxeStang]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

People bitch just to bitch too!

 

Lots of complaints about Ford's interior materials-but how much of it is actually legitimate vs it "doesn't look nice vs competition X" but the competition interior falls apart after 3-4 years?

 

Most EV interiors are more barebone looking vs ICE cars, which makes them look "Cheap"...Tesla's interiors give me a cheap Ikea vibe-very bland and seems to be cost cutting like in the Y with its center mounted IP. 

 

I don't see offering a larger screen in a affordable EV as being a big issue-the 12 inch display is more or less standard outside of the Maverick, Bronco Sport and lower end Escapes. Plus offering a large screen like what is in the Lightning and MachE is a bit cheaper then a bunch of buttons of HVAC/Heat seats etc. 

 

The biggest issue is the costs of battery cells at the moment. Hopefully that will come down with increased production of more battery cell with battery plants coming on line. 

Exactly, battery cells are so much more expensive than a ICE powertrain at the moment that if a brand is designing a product for a certain price point, 40 grand in our example, so much of that price is made up by the far more expensive battery pack that the rest of the vehicle is compromised in terms of features. 

 

A 40 grand ICE cuv offers the same level of tech and features as a 50 or 60 grand EV because the battery is just that expensive. That turns a lot of buyers off, because EV buyers are often paying more for less, at least with current platforms. 

[rperez817]

4 hours ago, rmc523 said:

we want Ford to tackle it in a measured approach that transitions over time 

 

That is extremely risky for Ford and other legacy automakers. If the "transitions over time" take even slightly too long, those companies are in grave danger of experiencing what Elon Musk accurately described last month as a "Kodak moment". Elon Musk Warns Automakers Face "Kodak Moment" If They're Too Slow on EVs - Gear Musk

 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk fired a warning shot across the bow of legacy automakers this week, cautioning that they could face a “Kodak moment” if they do not accelerate the transition to electric vehicles.

Musk’s comments came in response to a tweet predicting traditional automakers are “about to have their Kodak moment.” The phrase refers to the downfall of photography giant Kodak, which failed to adapt to digital cameras and eventually went bankrupt. “It is unfortunately trending that way for many automakers,” Musk replied. “Some companies do understand, but their pace of change is nonetheless slow.”

 

 

[Rangers09]

On 9/25/2023 at 6:02 PM, rperez817 said:

 

That's exactly where the global automotive industry's future lies, and where Ford has an opportunity to lead.

 

Governments can push the automakers, with the automakers building BEV's, but the your vision of the future will only materialise, if the customer is accepting, and at present, I'll suggest the majority of customers are not accepting the transition to BEV.

 

Make them affordable, increase the range, mitigate factors reducing the already low range and develop a charging network similar to gas stations and the future may slowly swing towards BEV, or whatever better technology is in the pipeline.

[DeluxeStang]

5 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

That is extremely risky for Ford and other legacy automakers. If the "transitions over time" take even slightly too long, those companies are in grave danger of experiencing what Elon Musk accurately described last month as a "Kodak moment". Elon Musk Warns Automakers Face "Kodak Moment" If They're Too Slow on EVs - Gear Musk

 

 

 

Kodak refused to update it's product lineup for years despite strong demand for more modern offerings. Ford is investing heavily in EVs, they're just not overestimating demand. Even in Europe, Evs only account for about 20% of new car sales. It's well below that in N. America. 

[jpd80]

So this so called “Kodak moment” analogy is more like camera buyers rejecting early digital, not because Kodak didn’t develop digital technology.

 

and that IMO, is a huge difference and why things are not as they seem….the fact tat Tesla sales has torn into Euro premium brands profits tells us what Teslas true goal is. Tesla is also growing fat from being desirable in China it’s literally rolling in money now in spite of not really challenging US brands and why should it even bother to?

Edited September 27, 2023 by jpd80

[AM222]

4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

and that IMO, is a huge difference and why things are not as they seem….the fact tat Tesla sales has torn into Euro premium brands profits tells us what Teslas true goal is. Tesla is also growing fat from being desirable in China it’s literally rolling in money now in spite of not really challenging US brands and why should it even bother to?

BYD is smart in not directly going against Tesla. BYD is known for its affordable EVs that replace regular ICE cars and SUVs.

So many carmakers are stupidly obsessed with premium EVs that brag about 0-60 times.  

Smart move for MG to make the Focus hatchback-sized RWD-AWD MG4. Something I wish Ford thought of.

Outside Europe they also offer the MG GT, a Focus Sedan-sized ICE model because in the real world, many areas still don't have an EV charging infrastructure.


 

Edited September 27, 2023 by AM222

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, AM222 said:

BYD is smart in not directly going against Tesla. BYD is known for its affordable EVs that replace regular ICE cars and SUVs.

So many carmakers are stupidly obsessed with premium EVs that brag about 0-60 times.  

Smart move for MG to make the Focus hatchback-sized RWD-AWD MG4. Something I wish Ford thought of.

Outside Europe they also offer the MG GT, a Focus Sedan-sized ICE model because in the real world, many areas still don't have an EV charging infrastructure.


 

Of greater concern, BYD doesn’t seem to be getting any sales traction in Europe,

a noted objective to break out beyond domestic Chinese sales

[AM222]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Of greater concern, BYD doesn’t seem to be getting any sales traction in Europe,

a noted objective to break out beyond domestic Chinese sales

Looks like they're getting some traction. BYD exports to Europe started first in Germany in late 2022. This year it has expanded to the UK, France and some other European markets.
"BYD, bolstered by its growing European footprint, sold 2,685 cars last month. The model-by-model sales report by Auto News Europe shows a marked improvement from the 186 it delivered in August 2022. The largest new-energy vehicle producer in the world saw sales of its Atto 3 (2,559) take the lion’s share of the pie."
China’s share of Europe’s electric car market accelerates as UK leads sales | Automotive industry | The Guardian

Not sure how the Atto 3 sales figures compares to Mach E. Haven't seen any sales breakdown from Ford, but I recall Mach E's European sales tend to be in the 2,000 a month area.

MG is doing better, probably because of brand familiarity... 
"MG is one of the biggest winners in the list, with the popular MG4 making Europe’s top 40 best-selling list."
-Chinese Automakers Surge Yet Again In Europe’s Sales Charts | Carscoops

"SAIC has launched a series of Chinese-made MG electric cars, which have proved very popular in the UK in part because of relatively low prices. The MG4 EV was the second bestselling electric car in the UK in the first seven months of 2023, behind Tesla’s Model Y SUV, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders."
-China’s share of Europe’s electric car market accelerates as UK leads sales | Automotive industry | The Guardian

Edited September 27, 2023 by AM222

[rmc523]

Relevant info for the non-Explorer "Explorer" EV swoopy thing -  Kia EV9 pricing was unveiled:

 

2024 Kia EV9 pricing revealed: Three-row EV starts in the mid-$50s - Autoblog

 

The 2024 Kia EV9 will start at $56,265 (including destination) when it goes on sale here in the fourth quarter, 

[rperez817]

12 hours ago, AM222 said:

BYD is smart in not directly going against Tesla. 

 

Ford, VW, and Tesla all consider Chinese automakers in general and BYD in particular to be their most formidable competition.

 

Elon Musk (Tesla) statement.

We have a lot of respect for the car companies in China. They are the most competitive in the world. They work the hardest and they work the smartest ... so lots of respect for the China car companies that we’re competing against. And so, if I were to guess ... probably some company out of China is the most likely to be second to Tesla. [BYD] cars are highly competitive these days.

 

Jim Farley (Ford) statement.

We see the Chinese as the main competitor, not GM or Toyota. I like BYD. Totally vertically-integrated, aggressive, unapologetic. Very, very impressive company.

 

Oliver Blume (VW) statement.

BYD is very, very strong.

[rperez817]

20 hours ago, jpd80 said:

So this so called “Kodak moment” analogy is more like camera buyers rejecting early digital, not because Kodak didn’t develop digital technology.

 

Actually the "Kodak moment" analogy in the context of Elon Musk's comment regarding legacy automakers highlights former Ford CEO Jim Hackett's concern a few years ago about his employer continuing to "straddle the old and new worlds" for an extended period of time. Kodak provides a good example from another industry of what faces legacy automakers who do that. The inevitable results are bankruptcy or acquisition.

 

Kodak used its first mover advantage to become the #1 or #2 U.S. market digital camera brand in the 1990s and early 2000s. It kept that leadership position as late as 2005. But the company kept its film division going well into the 2000s as well, a direct result of Kodak executives "retaining and strengthening" film related products and services. Disputes between the film and digital divisions made it difficult for Kodak to adapt to a rapidly changing market for digital photography. By 2010, Kodak dropped to #7 for digital cameras, and in 2012 it filed for bankruptcy.

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Actually the "Kodak moment" analogy in the context of Elon Musk's comment regarding legacy automakers highlights former Ford CEO Jim Hackett's concern a few years ago about his employer continuing to "straddle the old and new worlds" for an extended period of time. Kodak provides a good example from another industry of what faces legacy automakers who do that. The inevitable results are bankruptcy or acquisition.

With respect, that’s clever nonsense because Ford needs to keep Ford highly profitable to pay for the extravagant spending on BEVs, mostly because Ford still hasn’t a clue as to how to build BEVs efficiently and profitably.

 

Jim Hackett didn’t have much of a clue either, he thought that Ford could just Jeep on outsourcing batteries from suppliers until it was show that’s why Ford’s BEVs and hybrids could never be built in sufficient volumes.
 

Hackett also thought that outsourcing compact BEVs to VW’s MEB toolkit was cheaper than an own design until someone showed how much money VW was taking for overpriced batteries and electrical components 

 

 

Quote

 

Kodak used its first mover advantage to become the #1 or #2 U.S. market digital camera brand in the 1990s and early 2000s. It kept that leadership position as late as 2005. But the company kept its film division going well into the 2000s as well, a direct result of Kodak executives "retaining and strengthening" film related products and services. Disputes between the film and digital divisions made it difficult for Kodak to adapt to a rapidly changing market for digital photography. By 2010, Kodak dropped to #7 for digital cameras, and in 2012 it filed for bankruptcy.

I see what people draw the Analogy but the situation with vehicles is completely different 

Many people wanted to switch to digital photography ASAP but the same thing can’t be said of vehicles, the transition to electric vehicles is going to take longer because battery makers are deliberately holding back next generation batteries to make as much profit out of lithium as they can.

 

The scary part here is just how much money Ford is sinking into the current generation battery tech which could be obsolete in the next 5-10 years, so it’s a good thing that Ford keeps questioning it current wisdom, the brains trust is not that smart….

Edited September 28, 2023 by jpd80

[AM222]

11 hours ago, rperez817 said:

Ford, VW, and Tesla all consider Chinese automakers in general and BYD in particular to be their most formidable competition.

Ford's first dedicated EV model, the Mach E, is aimed directly at the Tesla Model Y. Maybe Ford will change its focus now.

 

Quote

Tesla and MG were the biggest market share winners in Europe during H1 2023

Quote

 

Recently, MG has also been shaking the European car market. Once a British brand, all of its current cars are designed, developed, and produced by SAIC, one of China’s biggest OEMs. With 104,300 units registered in H1 2023, MG outsold other major brands such as Mini, Cupra, and Jeep. Partly due to the success of the MG 4, its volume grew by 128% since H1 2022, providing MG with the second highest market share increase in the first half of this year.

Munoz, added: “MG is using both the notoriety of the brand in the West, and the competitiveness of the Chinese market, to its advantage. Its appealing, modern, and affordable electric cars in both Western and Eastern markets is a good showcase of how Chinese manufacturers can gain more traction and shift perceptions of their products.”

 

-www.jato.com
European BEV Registrations H1 2023

Quote

1. Tesla Model Y: 136,564
2. Tesla Model 3: 42,588
3. Volkswagen ID.4: 41,672
4. Volkswagen ID.3: 35,233
5. Fiat 500: 31,340
6. MG 4: 30,779
7. Dacia Spring: 26,748
8. Volvo XC40: 26,445
9. Peugeot 208: 26,013
10. Skoda Enyaq: 25,698

-www.jato.com 

Yup, no Ford in the top 10. Will Ford's VW-based Explorer EV make it to the top 10?
 

[Rick73]

9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

Actually the "Kodak moment" analogy in the context of Elon Musk's comment regarding legacy automakers highlights former Ford CEO Jim Hackett's concern a few years ago about his employer continuing to "straddle the old and new worlds" for an extended period of time. Kodak provides a good example from another industry of what faces legacy automakers who do that. The inevitable results are bankruptcy or acquisition.

I don’t see much of a parallel at all.  Electric cars have been around for over 100 years, and have progressed slowly as technology improved.  Kodak, on the other hand, was primarily a film manufacturer which was obsoleted by digital.  Granted, they had some disposable cameras towards the end if I recall correctly, but that wasn’t their core business.  Regardless, even if they had gone into digital cameras, the iPhone would have still put them out of business because very few people buy digital cameras today.  I had a Sony digital for a few years but got rid of it after I got an Apple smart phone.  Pictures were not as good, but it was more convenient and less of a hassle to use.  That’s the parallel I see here — gas cars are still easier  to own and use because it’s less of a hassle to plan trips and refuel along the way.  That will change slowly but hasn’t yet.  IMO some things change fast and others must change gradually.  Some change can’t be forced, has to happen willingly. 
 

Biggest difference — government did not mandate switch to digital.  Buyer demand through free markets took care of transition.  BEVs versus ICE transition seems completely different to me.