Ford Rethinking it's Hybrid Effort According to CFO

[2005Explorer]

I think Ford is starting to realize that the whole transition to BEV is going to take much longer. I wanted to share because there has been a lot of discussion on this forum about the need for a stronger focus on hybrids right now.

 

https://fordauthority.com/2023/12/ford-cfo-says-company-became-complacent-on-hybrids/

 

 

[Rick73]

Disappointing they don’t mention possibility of a hybrid Transit van.  It would seem a great fit for city-oriented commercial use.  Maybe it’s because E-Transit is suppose to have that market covered already, or because of an upcoming all-new van?  Great move on Ford’s part; just wish they would achieve more than the stated 25% CO2 reduction.

[ausrutherford]

Bronco, Bronco Sport, Ranger, Maverick AWD please.....

[2005Explorer]

27 minutes ago, ausrutherford said:

Bronco, Bronco Sport, Ranger, Maverick AWD please.....

They already have an Escape Hybrid with AWD correct? I don't see how it could take much work to offer a similar set-up in the Maverick and Bronco Sport.

[akirby]

20 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said:

They already have an Escape Hybrid with AWD correct? I don't see how it could take much work to offer a similar set-up in the Maverick and Bronco Sport.

Mechanically it’s a no brainer.  I think this was just a marketing/battery availability decision.

[fuzzymoomoo]

1 hour ago, ausrutherford said:

Bronco, Bronco Sport, Ranger, Maverick AWD please.....

The reason the Maverick doesn’t have hybrid AWD at the moment has something to do with the way the exhaust routes around the rear suspension or something like that. I remember reading the engineer’s reason for it at the time of the original reveal with a comment saying if the demand was there they could possibly add it down the line. 

[Roland]

A hybrid Fusion would be nice.  ?

 

This would have been obvious if they had been paying attention to consumers instead of jumping onboard with a government program to railroad people into BEVs they don't want and can't afford.

[akirby]

23 minutes ago, Roland said:

A hybrid Fusion would be nice.  ?

 

This would have been obvious if they had been paying attention to consumers instead of jumping onboard with a government program to railroad people into BEVs they don't want and can't afford.

So all those people who ordered Lightnings and Mach-Es aren’t consumers?

[silvrsvt]

6 hours ago, akirby said:

I think this was just a marketing/battery availability decision.

 

I'm wondering if some of the battery plants that are coming on line will provide additional batteries for hybrid products that aren't in the pipeline yet.

 

Short term (24-36 months) everything say outside of the Transit can be Hybridized in some fashion that isn't already. 

 

EVs are still coming, just that the market won't see a major shift (like 40% the total market) till after 2027/28 CY IMO, but that could all change..just that the next 24 months are going to have lots of different things going on-possible recession (I'm sure that definition will be changed too), political upheaval and so on.

[fuzzymoomoo]

11 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I'm wondering if some of the battery plants that are coming on line will provide additional batteries for hybrid products that aren't in the pipeline yet.

IMO they would be foolish not to

[Rick73]

44 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

IMO they would be foolish not to

Batteries are different between HEV, PHEV, and BEV.  I have no idea how flexible a battery manufacturing plant would be in switching from BEV to HEV batteries.  Based on cell size/capacity alone, it may be more involved than it appears.

 

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15345397/battery-taxonomy-the-differences-between-hybrid-and-ev-batteries/
 

Article also quotes Ford technical discussing the huge difference in cycles these batteries go through depending on vehicle type, and how they compensate for that in design.

 

[jpd80]

 If gas prices keep falling, I think the need for better fuel economy and desire to buy hybrids  may also reduce.

Most vehicles give pretty good gas mileage this day so any buy in to electrification has to be a strong want/need

from the customer……unless Ford needs to press harder with better corporate fuel economy numbers (rising CAFE levels).

 

[silvrsvt]

58 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

unless Ford needs to press harder with better corporate fuel economy numbers (rising CAFE levels).

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/04/20220402-cafe.html

 

Estimated Average of CAFE Levels (mpg) Required Under Final Rule

Fleet	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Passenger Cars	49.2	53.4	59.4	59.4	59.3	59.3
Light Trucks	35.1	38.2	42.4	42.4	42.4	42.4
Overall Fleet	40.6	44.2	49.1	49.1	49.2	49.3

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/04/20220402-cafe.html

 

Estimated Average of CAFE Levels (mpg) Required Under Final Rule

Fleet	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Passenger Cars	49.2	53.4	59.4	59.4	59.3	59.3
Light Trucks	35.1	38.2	42.4	42.4	42.4	42.4
Overall Fleet	40.6	44.2	49.1	49.1	49.2	49.3

Take 20% off those numbers as they  are the uncorrected values.

Modern vehicle mpg ratings have been down corrected a couple of times to reflect more real life conditions.

 

I get your point though and you can see what cars died out as the CAFE figure is much higher than Trucks/Utilities.

Edited January 3 by jpd80

[Rick73]

On 1/2/2024 at 6:41 PM, jpd80 said:

 If gas prices keep falling, I think the need for better fuel economy and desire to buy hybrids  may also reduce.

Most vehicles give pretty good gas mileage this day so any buy in to electrification has to be a strong want/need

from the customer……unless Ford needs to press harder with better corporate fuel economy numbers (rising CAFE levels).

 

Great points.  As example, I compared Corolla ICE versus HEV using EPA fuel economy estimates, and difference is only about $400~$450 per year in gas savings.  I can’t find actual reported costs for hybrid battery replacement, but Internet suggests hybrid batteries are  in range of $2,000~$8,000.  Even at $2,000 low end, plus additional vehicle purchase cost, there isn’t much real cost savings if any.

 

In case of Toyota the hybrid battery warranty is pretty good at 10 years or 150,000 miles, but I can’t find warranty terms and conditions.  In any case, as car approaches warranty expiration date, it will probably decrease resale value more unless battery had already been replaced.

 

The best way to reduce CO2/GHGs and costs simultaneously seems to remain through conservation, but that’s a tough sell for buyers and manufacturers alike. 

Edited January 4 by Rick73

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, Rick73 said:

Great points.  As example, I compared Corolla ICE versus HEV using EPA fuel economy estimates, and difference is only about $400~$450 per year in gas savings.  I can’t find actual reported costs for hybrid battery replacement, but Internet suggests hybrid batteries are  in range of $2,000~$8,000.  Even at $2,000 low end, plus additional vehicle purchase cost, there isn’t much real cost savings if any.

 

In case of Toyota the hybrid battery warranty is pretty good at 10 years or 150,000 miles, but I can’t find warranty terms and conditions.  In any case, as car approaches warranty expiration date, it will probably decrease resale value more unless battery had already been replaced.

 

The best way to reduce CO2/GHGs and costs simultaneously seems to remain through conservation, but that’s a tough sell for buyers and manufacturers alike. 

A better way to “sell hybridisation” is to show improved performance  possibilities as well as better economy.

Adding bigger electric motors for stronger launch combined with energy conservation could play to that…

Getting the electric side to do more of the power adder is examples by the 3.0 EB PHEV and coming 2.3 EB PHEV.

Edited January 4 by jpd80

[DeluxeStang]

On 1/2/2024 at 5:41 PM, jpd80 said:

 If gas prices keep falling, I think the need for better fuel economy and desire to buy hybrids  may also reduce.

Most vehicles give pretty good gas mileage this day so any buy in to electrification has to be a strong want/need

from the customer……unless Ford needs to press harder with better corporate fuel economy numbers (rising CAFE levels).

 

I view our maverick hybrid as some that hedges our bet against drastically fluctuating gas prices. I will say it confuses me that some buyers throw fuel efficiency to the wind when gas is cheap, considering most people are known to own cars for several years, and gas prices are known to fluctuate drastically in a single season. 

[Deanh]

33 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

I view our maverick hybrid as some that hedges our bet against drastically fluctuating gas prices. I will say it confuses me that some buyers throw fuel efficiency to the wind when gas is cheap, considering most people are known to own cars for several years, and gas prices are known to fluctuate drastically in a single season. 

I dont think thats as much the case as it used to be...I think 5-$6 ( it was $9 at some places in Los Angeles ) gas has left a lasting "scar" and I dont think Hybrid sales will slow down...the old fool me once syndrome...I think the publics tolerance and reaction to stupid pricing may have been an experiment ... 

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

A better way to “sell hybridisation” is to show improved performance  possibilities as well as better economy.

Adding bigger electric motors for stronger launch combined with energy conservation could play to that…

Getting the electric side to do more of the power adder is examples by the 3.0 EB PHEV and coming 2.3 EB PHEV.

Performance versus economy has been discussed to death, and my opinion hasn’t changed much.  I see Maverick and many others doing well in sales with more economy-minded designs, so I will wait to see 450 HP 3.0L EB hybrids doing well before changing my mind.

 

I saw specs for a 3.0L EB plug-in hybrid showing that transmission had 75 kW electric motor, so that does open the door for RWD hybrids to become more fuel efficient as well as more powerful (assuming specs are correct, and not that someone took power rating from FWD hybrid transmission).  Let’s hope that extra level of electrification makes it to F-150 resulting in greater fuel economy.  For Ranger and Explorer I’d personally like to see non-turbo hybrid engine option like on Maverick, especially when assisted by 100 HP electric motor.

[silvrsvt]

4 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

I view our maverick hybrid as some that hedges our bet against drastically fluctuating gas prices. I will say it confuses me that some buyers throw fuel efficiency to the wind when gas is cheap, considering most people are known to own cars for several years, and gas prices are known to fluctuate drastically in a single season. 

 

Gas is cheap vs paying $400-800 a month for a new car payment. 

 

Just look at Fueleconomy.gov as an estimate and your lucky to save a couple hundred bucks over a year or so, unless you drastically downsize. Plus I'm assuming that people that can work from home are doing it at least a day or two a week and that cuts down on the amount of gas needed too. 

Edited January 5 by silvrsvt

[Texasota]

2 hours ago, Rick73 said:

For Ranger and Explorer I’d personally like to see non-turbo hybrid engine option like on Maverick, especially when assisted by 100 HP electric motor.

With that type of hybrid system in a Ranger it would be a huge step backwards in towing ability. It would not work for my needs at all and I don’t think there would be a market for it. We already have the Maverick hybrid for the hybrid system you are describing.
 

My 2020 Ranger’s towing ability is what makes it a great truck for my needs. The 2.3 Ranger PHEV will truly be the best of both worlds with great towing/hauling ability and all EV for town driving.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, Texasota said:

With that type of hybrid system in a Ranger it would be a huge step backwards in towing ability. It would not work for my needs at all and I don’t think there would be a market for it. We already have the Maverick hybrid for the hybrid system you are describing.
 

My 2020 Ranger’s towing ability is what makes it a great truck for my needs. The 2.3 Ranger PHEV will truly be the best of both worlds with great towing/hauling ability and all EV for town driving.

You may have misunderstood.  I did not say or mean the same 2.5L engine in the Maverick, just that for me personally it be non-turbo.  Ford can make it as large and powerful as needed to achieve whatever towing ability they consider necessary without relying on turbos.  Just personal preference.

[AM222]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:55 AM, Roland said:

A hybrid Fusion would be nice.  ?

 

This would have been obvious if they had been paying attention to consumers instead of jumping onboard with a government program to railroad people into BEVs they don't want and can't afford.

That reminds me the C2-based all-new Mondeo now has a 205hp 1.5 EcoBoost Hybrid option. 
Hybrid version in ST-Line trim shown.

-Motor1

Link to the image of the engine: CjIFWGVcs7-AcCOiACSQyKlPdHU868.jpg (1920×1440) (autoimg.cn)
-car.autohome.com.cn

The new Mondeo's 1.5 EB and Hybrid 1.5 EB don't look Sigma or Dragon-based, at least based on the layout of the oil cap and dipstick location. The cam cover (what can be seen) looks a bit Sigma-like though.

*The refreshed Chinese-market Focus reverted to the Sigma-based 1.5 Inline-4 EB, the pre-facelift had a Dragon 1.5 Inline-3 EB. I read it supposedly has something to do with the local market not liking the idea of an inline-3 which they see as cheap (associated with econoboxes).

Edited January 5 by AM222

[akirby]

9 hours ago, Texasota said:

With that type of hybrid system in a Ranger it would be a huge step backwards in towing ability. It would not work for my needs at all and I don’t think there would be a market for it. We already have the Maverick hybrid for the hybrid system you are describing.
 

My 2020 Ranger’s towing ability is what makes it a great truck for my needs. The 2.3 Ranger PHEV will truly be the best of both worlds with great towing/hauling ability and all EV for town driving.

Just like F150 buyers, most Ranger buyers probably don’t tow much.  Maverick is too small for me but a Ranger hybrid or pHEV would work great.

[92merc]

My big concern with going back to hybrids, is does Fords still have enough ICE powertrain and platform people around to add more hybrids to the mix.

 

They didn't make an Edge replacement, so that's a negative on the platform side.  They should have made a C2 Edge.  Do they have the resources to go back to that perhaps?

 

Engines wise, the 2.5 NA is an old platform.  It'll probably still fit the bill for the C2.  But will the EcoBoost engines work well with regards to efficiency for larger platforms like the Ranger?  Ford needs an efficient solution for the F150 hybrid as well.  Is the 2.7EB the best approach?  Or should that be the 3.3 NA that they had dropped from the F150's?  Or maybe a 3.0 NA build off the 3.0 EB engine, just re-tuned for NA/hyrbid.

 

Does Ford still have they ICE engineers around to handle the pivot back to hybrids?