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Ford Delaying '09 -150 Launch


jasonj80

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Great post. June has been a disaster for me after a relatively decent 1st 5 mos of the year. I've taken huge hits against my used inventory but it is now closer to true "book" than any other dealer I know. Traffic has been very light the last 2 weeks. If this is the trend for the remainder of the summer we are all in trouble. If it is just a breather to "re-normalize" then I can live with that. I sure hope traffic comes back quickly. Used trucks/SUV's are so low right now it defies logic. An extra $10 to fill a tank should not devalue anything 20%. But that's whats happening right now. Emotion is trumping common sense.

 

 

I have June as just a disaster. Don't read into the yearly sales rate as a reflection of total Ford volume this month because that is annualized and normally June is the third or fourth largest sales month of the year. I have Ford volume down just about 22% in June to about 188k units. Right now I have the F-series stealing share in the full-size truck market and still being down over 35%. The Focus will post about a 10% increase over last year, but inventory is killing Ford (and everyone else) right now. The Escape will take a hit as it readjusts against fleet levels from a year ago, but not much of a hit, maybe 10-15%. Edge will be down maybe 10%. Fusion will be flat to up 5%. The Explorer and Expedition are just DOA. It's just going to be a dirty month. I have industry sales at 13.5-13.8M for the month end. Not even Honda is going to be up without a miracle in the last two weekends of the month.

 

Of note, I believe this is the bottom of the market. The reason: gas and oil prices have been relatively stable for the last two weeks and there are signs that people are starting to re-normalize. Doesn't mean that F-series sales will magically start climbing or that the used truck market will blossom into a green pasture, but I think the end of the blood-letting is nigh. People are starting to reconsider their paranoia, and ultimately, that is the best thing they can do.

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One thing I see around here is that the Used truck market is killing the New truck market. People are in full panic mode and are selling their almost new trucks at bargan basment prices just to get rid of them...

 

If you need a truck, why buy a new one when you can save well over $10K ( even with the discounts ) on an 07-08 with less than 10K miles on it...???

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Maybe that's why VW is thinking about pulling their small cars from the US market. Meanwhile, the Focus does well against the NA-assembled Asians, and the Fiesta, with Mexican assembly should do very well indeed, along with the Mexican-assembled Fusion.

 

Last I read, Ed, VW still plans to bring the next-gen Golf here, despite rumors. Plus, they just put the Jetta SportWagen on the market. I don't think they're going anywhere just yet...

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One thing I see around here is that the Used truck market is killing the New truck market. People are in full panic mode and are selling their almost new trucks at bargan basment prices just to get rid of them...

 

If you need a truck, why buy a new one when you can save well over $10K ( even with the discounts ) on an 07-08 with less than 10K miles on it...???

 

No one knows if gasoline will be $6 a gallon, and if it happens there is nothing they can do about it. People are also looking at an increasing electric bill and dreading the heating costs for next winter.

 

People are doing what they can to make sure they spend as little on energy as possible in a market with rising prices, and the first step is driving high mileage vehicles.

Edited by mlhm5
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One thing I see around here is that the Used truck market is killing the New truck market. People are in full panic mode and are selling their almost new trucks at bargan basment prices just to get rid of them...

 

If you need a truck, why buy a new one when you can save well over $10K ( even with the discounts ) on an 07-08 with less than 10K miles on it...???

 

And here I sit, trying to buy a new truck, but not pulling the trigger because the deal right now is worse than last month. Not a little worse either............... $2000 worse.

 

I don't want a '06 or '07 because the interior is not as nice, and the overall truck is not as nice. Since I don't plan to sell this new truck, I want what I want. We are looking at the 2008 V10 F250 4x4 Crewcab Lariat (loaded wtih everything including Nav and DVD). They would have to discount the diesel ALOT to make up for the $5000 difference in price over the V10. Hell, I will even drive to get the truck I want, as AZ sucks for truck prices (high).

 

So, if anyone knows where my truck is, in the Dark Toreadore Red, over beige, and beige interior............ please let me know. LOL (the one local is Pueblo Gold).

 

Hey, at least I'm getting an ok trade on my Tribute................ as it gets pretty good mileage. LOL

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An extra $10 to fill a tank should not devalue anything 20%. But that's whats happening right now. Emotion is trumping common sense.

 

In the past "common sense" was lacking. SUVs for soccer moms that got 12 MPG? Huge pickup trucks for occassional trips to Home Depot? Like the real estate market we were on a drunk of excess.

 

Maybe because I live in CA where gas is always more expensive, I've thought a wake-up call was in order anyway, but this has been more of a slap in the face!

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An extra $10 to fill a tank should not devalue anything 20%. But that's whats happening right now. Emotion is trumping common sense.

 

In the past "common sense" was lacking. SUVs for soccer moms that got 12 MPG? Huge pickup trucks for occassional trips to Home Depot? Like the real estate market we were on a drunk of excess.

 

Maybe because I live in CA where gas is always more expensive, I've thought a wake-up call was in order anyway, but this has been more of a slap in the face!

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An extra $10 to fill a tank should not devalue anything 20%. But that's whats happening right now. Emotion is trumping common sense.

Go back two years, to Fill an SUV costs maybe $40, now it's $100.

Obviously, a lot of people were living beyond their means , cheap gasoline underpinning SUV and truck sales. Mortgages and jobs are in jeopardy, the all have priority over extravagant unnessasary vehicles.

Edited by jpd80
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It would be nice if the 6.2L was ready at launch, but I highly doubt it. It's funny how there hasn't been much "news" on the 6.2L lately. Do we know for sure that this engine will debut in 2009 as a 2010 model?

The latest I've heard (within the last week) is that it's still a go for 2010, but with gas prices where they are...

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Hey, if the "updated" 5.4 mated to a 6-speed can perform in similar fashion as the higher horsepower engines from the other manufacturers AND generate better gas mileage, then who needs the 6.2L.

 

ford does..not maintaining at least a nich performance presence takes ford right out the the equation for those with the means to afford low mpg performance vehicles...

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Ummm..niche performance presence can be found in the EcoBoost V6's or Supercharged 5.4L. I'd love to see the 6.2L, as long as the gas mileage is equal to or better than the 5.4L. Let's be honest, if the 6.2L appears, it will be the top dog engine in the F-150, hence the 5.4L will be dropped.

Edited by 02MustangGT
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