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Hybrid F-150?? Diesel F-150?? Sooner than we all might think...


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Interesting comments from Ford's global product development chief, Raj Nair in a recently posted Autoblog green article....

 

 

With fuel prices dropping, Nair is now saying that a hybrid F-150 makes more sense, financially, than a diesel, but Ford could make both options available, depending on customer demand. The diesel wouldn't require all that much work, Nair said, since "we've got diesels in the portfolio."

Edited by twintornados
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How would dropping fuel prices make a hybrid more feasible? Wouldn't it be the opposite?

Theory. Has prices are low so the take rate for a hybrid truck would probably be much lower than if gas was still up near 3-3.50. So if they were to launch a hybrid now they could work out the bugs and avoid taking as big of a PR hit like they did with C-Max when the ratings were changed.

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The average transaction price for an F150 is currently around $40,000, up roughly $2,100 from same time last year.

I think there's enough room in pricing to do something with a 3.5 DI hybrid that would keep prices "comfortable"

while offering something much better than the previous GM bimodal hybrid truck.

Edited by jpd80
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How would dropping fuel prices make a hybrid more feasible? Wouldn't it be the opposite?

The hybrid must be cheaper. Maybe some of the hybrid parts for the cars can be used in the truck allowing for the truck hybrid to consume some of the excess parts as car hybrid sales decrease with gas prices. This would allow hybrid component production to remain constant saving Ford money. Alternatively, maybe the diesel needs more changes to suspension to deal with the increased weight and weight distribution.
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I still don't see how cheaper fuel (both gas and diesel) makes a hybrid f150 more feasible than a diesel. Aren't diesel prices falling along with gasoline?

I think the implied part of Nair's statement was that the price of gas is dropping while the price of diesel is remaining relatively stable--gasoline prices have moved more in the last week than diesel has in the last year, at least around here. That increases the advantage of gas-powered hybrids while decreasing (if not eliminating) the advantages of diesels.

 

If gas and diesel moved in lock-step, then yes, decreasing prices wouldn't affect their relative positions, but they normally don't (at least in part because diesel demand usually remains more constant than gasoline demand).

Edited by SoonerLS
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If gasoline and diesel both come from the same barrel of oil why would diesel prices not drop along with gasoline prices if the price of oil is dropping? I realize diesel supply is impacted by fuel oil demand but I don't see why diesel prices wouldn't also drop.

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If gasoline and diesel both come from the same barrel of oil why would diesel prices not drop along with gasoline prices if the price of oil is dropping? I realize diesel supply is impacted by fuel oil demand but I don't see why diesel prices wouldn't also drop.

Isn't diesel more expensive to produce now?

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I still don't see how cheaper fuel (both gas and diesel) makes a hybrid f150 more feasible than a diesel. Aren't diesel prices falling along with gasoline?

 

No, no they are not. At least not in my area. Gas is down to $2.49 while diesel is still up at $3.59 last I checked.

 

Couple that with the quote I added to my previous post and it makes perfect sense. Paying 50% more for a fuel that gets 10-20% better fuel economy makes no sense at all.

 

Don't forget, I drive a diesel and get to buy that expensive $hit! :)

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If gasoline and diesel both come from the same barrel of oil why would diesel prices not drop along with gasoline prices if the price of oil is dropping? I realize diesel supply is impacted by fuel oil demand but I don't see why diesel prices wouldn't also drop.

 

I would like to know the answer to that as well. Diesel is generally higher in the winter due to fuel oil, but diesel SHOULD be dropping at a similar rate to gas. Some will say that the global demand for diesel is higher, but I don't buy that argument.

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If gasoline and diesel both come from the same barrel of oil why would diesel prices not drop along with gasoline prices if the price of oil is dropping? I realize diesel supply is impacted by fuel oil demand but I don't see why diesel prices wouldn't also drop.

According to the US Gov't, crude oil prices make up a smaller part of the cost of diesel and refining is a bigger part of its cost as compared to gasoline (crude is 63% and refining is 8% of the cost of gasoline, vs. 55% (crude) and 11% (refining) for diesel). As I recall, our refineries are usually set up for a much higher percentage of gasoline production (80% gas/20% diesel were the last figures I heard), plus gasoline demand is seasonal, while diesel demand remains fairly constant. Plus, diesel is sold on a global market, and has been since '05 or '06, while gasoline is sold in local markets.

 

ETA:

The source for the cost percentages can be found at the bottom of this page: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

Edited by SoonerLS
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Ford argues that a gas-burning EcoBoost engine in the new aluminum-bodied F-150 is a better buy, because Ford's engine costs thousands less than the Ram diesel. At today's fuel prices, even the hybrid system Ford's working on would pay for itself sooner than a diesel, Nair said, though he wouldn't completely rule out a diesel F-150.

 

http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/mark-phelan/2014/12/03/climate-change-ford-greenhouse-mustang-ecoboost-diesel-auto-news-phelan/19803441/

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I don't understand. Building cars around gas prices going lower... What if they rise again?

It's a win-win with a hybrid in my eyes. See my earlier post, it allows time to work out the bugs with the system, then when prices inevitably go back up, you have a badass hybrid all ready to go with the major bugs worked out.

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I don't understand. Building cars around gas prices going lower... What if they rise again?

 

Its not like the are wholly dependent on the F-150 like they where in the past. Due to the pain at the pump over the past 10 years or so, the new F-150 (and other Ford products) are already baked in with good MPG's, just case gas prices do go up again.

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I don't understand. Building cars around gas prices going lower... What if they rise again?

I don't think they're talking about building trucks around gas pricing going lower, just that lower prices might give them an impetus to favor hybrid development over diesel development in the F150. In other words, it sounds like they're working on both, but this might push the hybrid ahead of the diesel internally.

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