Ford commits to fully autonomous vehicles within five years

[7Mary3]

Question: Why does it seem that autonomous vehicles MUST be designed without any driver controls whatsoever?

 

The tinfoil hat wear'in black helicopter see'in conspiracy monger in me says it's all about government control. Give us cars that we can't control under any circumstances so Big Brother will decide where and when we go.

[jpd80]

Question: Why does it seem that autonomous vehicles MUST be designed without any driver controls whatsoever?

 

The tinfoil hat wear'in black helicopter see'in conspiracy monger in me says it's all about government control. Give us cars that we can't control under any circumstances so Big Brother will decide where and when we go.

What would be just as bad is when the autonomous computer can't cope and throws back

to the human driver to take over when that person hasn't been concentrating on the current situation.

[Anthony]

Question: Why does it seem that autonomous vehicles MUST be designed without any driver controls whatsoever?

 

The tinfoil hat wear'in black helicopter see'in conspiracy monger in me says it's all about government control. Give us cars that we can't control under any circumstances so Big Brother will decide where and when we go.

 

 

My opinion (not based on any facts mind you) is that since Ford is designing this for ride sharing, there would be nobody sitting in the driver's seat in the first place to take control. Hence, no use for it. They can then design the interior around people carrying as opposed to driver and passengers.

[jpd80]

My experience has been that the future is never quite as we imagine it to be.

Heck, will ride sharing develop the way we expect it to or will it only apply in certain regions?

Edited August 18, 2016 by jpd80

[Biker16]

 

Eagerly awaiting the revelation that you are a member of every auto board out there, relentlessly criticizing every product in the mistaken belief that complaining on the internet accomplishes something.

 

Richard Jensen pot meet Kettle.

 

Loves Autonomous Vehicles so much he never misses and Opportunity to criticize them.

 

Honestly what makes you think you are smarter than the CEO and the staff of a multi-billion dollar corporation?

 

 

[fordmantpw]

Honestly what makes you think you are smarter than the CEO and the staff of a multi-billion dollar corporation?

 

Talk about pot meeting kettle...

[RichardJensen]

 

Honestly what makes you think you are smarter than the CEO and the staff of a multi-billion dollar corporation?

 

 

 

Because, unlike Mark Fields, I have a working knowledge of theory-of-mind, linguistics (vitally important given that traffic is controlled by 'language' that must be read and interpreted), and I am fully aware of the limitations of machine learning, which is the most recent attempt to mimic intelligence through brute force computing.

 

My criticism of autonomous driving is grounded firmly in an understanding of the practical limits of technology to interpret a complex world.

 

I can go back to first principles and explain exactly why something is not likely to succeed--certainly not within such a short period as 1,800 days.

Edited August 18, 2016 by RichardJensen

[akirby]

Any IT developer or architect worth a darn knows the difference between writing code that works in a sunny day scenario versus code that is bulletproof and works under every possible scenario. You might spend 20% of your time getting it to work and 80% of your time handling all of the border cases and error conditions and trying to make it bulletproof - and you still won't get all the bugs out in the lab.

 

It is impossible to simulate all of the real world scenarios that a driverless car might encounter. Not to mention limitations on the input devices themselves.

 

In Excel when something doesn't work right it's no big deal. In a driverless car it can be fatal.

 

It can work under controlled situations, and the technology for collision avoidance can be implemented on its own providing all the safety benefits without any of the risks.

[fuzzymoomoo]

[RichardJensen]

Worth reflecting on:

 

In 2009, the crash rate was 185 per one hundred million miles driven.

 

That means that an autonomous vehicle would have to be 99.999815% reliable in order to match the reliability of an average driver.

http://www.caranddriver.com/features/safety-in-numbers-charting-traffic-safety-and-fatality-data

Edited August 18, 2016 by RichardJensen

[RichardJensen]

The average driver's ability to avoid a crash exceeds the six sigma error rate of 340 errors per 100,000,000.

[Harley Lover]

It seems like there were rumors years ago of a "plug and play" hybrid system that could be used across much of the lineup, but so far we've only seen it in 2 vehicles. Hopefully this coming product/electric vehicle push will include more vehicles like that.

 

Don't forget that:

 

 

• The company is adding 13 new electrified vehicles to its product portfolio by 2020; more than 40 percent of Ford’s nameplates globally will be electrified by the decade’s end

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015/12/10/ford-investing-4-5-billion-in-electrified-vehicle-solutions.html

Edited August 18, 2016 by Harley Lover

[Anthony]

https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/18/ubers-first-self-driving-cars-will-start-picking-up-passengers-this-month/?

[rmc523]

 

Don't forget that:

 

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015/12/10/ford-investing-4-5-billion-in-electrified-vehicle-solutions.html

I did forget about that haha.

 

I know we also had a debate about that as to whether it truly meant 13 different models, or just variants of models (i.e. Fusion Hybrid and Fusion Energi counting as 2 of those 13)

[7Mary3]

The average driver's ability to avoid a crash exceeds the six sigma error rate of 340 errors per 100,000,000.

 

Thanks, I figured it would be something like that.

[Fgts]

I'm glad Ford is to offer an autonomous car but I wouldn't buy one with total absence of the steering, gas and brakes from what I understand.

[RichardJensen]

https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/18/ubers-first-self-driving-cars-will-start-picking-up-passengers-this-month/?

 

Each vehicle will be staffed by one engineer, who can take the wheel as/when needed

 

 

Yeah. Self-driving except not.

[RichardJensen]

 

Thanks, I figured it would be something like that.

 

Right. Given the extremely low crash rate per vehicle mile driven, and the even lower injury rate per vehicle mile driven, and the even lower fatality rate per mile driven, the whole 'self-driving' car thing is basically trying to solve a problem that, statistically speaking, doesn't even exist.

[RichardJensen]

Uber, on the other hand, desperately needs self-driving cars, or something else, in order to make their otherwise flawed business model succeed

[Biker16]

Uber, on the other hand, desperately needs self-driving cars, or something else, in order to make their otherwise flawed business model succeed

 

How is it flawed?

 

 

Right. Given the extremely low crash rate per vehicle mile driven, and the even lower injury rate per vehicle mile driven, and the even lower fatality rate per mile driven, the whole 'self-driving' car thing is basically trying to solve a problem that, statistically speaking, doesn't even exist.

 

maybe its more about increasing VMT and the frequency of vehicle replacement, or improving vehicle utilization, roughly 99% of the time your car is not being driven, or reducing congestion, or improving road way utilization or making long trips easier, or increasing the productivity of people while they travel, or reducing the need for parking.

 

maybe not simply just for safety.

[Biker16]

 

Talk about pot meeting kettle...

 

I guess you missed the intentional irony of my post.

[Biker16]

Complete, utter horse hockey. This is the kind of business case you compose when you have no real data to support what you want to do.

 

how did Henry Ford develop a business case for the affordable Automobile? everyone was happy with the horse and buggy, much like everyone today is happy, with drving. They are so happy, that the market for distracted driving is booming.

[Biker16]

As a consumer I have no interest in buying a vehicle like this. I enjoy driving, so a completely autonomous vehicle sounds very unappealing, and certainly reduces the desire to own a vehicle.

 

For young people who can barely afford to buy a house, the idea of not owning a car is very attractive, as cities wake up to the flaws of dedicating so much land for parking they will increase the cost to provide parking, driving the cost up and reducing the quantity they mandate businesses must provide. this has already begun in some areas with additional fees for non-permeable surfaces to reduce CSO and flooding in urban areas.

 

and parking minimums are beign reduced all over the country, the net effect is more walkable and less car centric nieghborhoods, which are better suited towards Car sharing and autonomous cars.

Edited August 19, 2016 by Biker16

[4d4evr-1]

Congrats, Mark, you've just had your Bill Ford moment

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/18/business/ford-backs-off-efficiency-pledge-for-its-suv-s.html

the world needs dreamers too

there was a time in the history of everything that now works, that it did not.....

[Anthony]

 

 

Yeah. Self-driving except not.

 

 

I was on my phone when I posted that link so I didn't go into detail, but that was exactly what I was getting at. Besides the obvious "take over when needed" measures, I think there's also a public fear of getting into a vehicle with no driver. Even if Uber had this thing fully figured out (which they don't) would you as a customer get in one of these things if there was nobody sitting in the driver's seat?