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2005Explorer

Considering buying some Ford Stock

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53 minutes ago, SoonerLS said:

Should've bought when it was under $2. I seriously thought about it, but didn't.

 

2 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

Yeah, no kidding.

Imagine a world where blueovalforums owned ford.


2-door everything, Manuals for days, and Panther Mafia for life.  It would be glorious.

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4 hours ago, probowler said:

 

Imagine a world where blueovalforums owned ford.


2-door everything, Manuals for days, and Panther Mafia for life.  It would be glorious.

 

and bankrupt....

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On 2/5/2021 at 12:46 AM, probowler said:

 

Imagine a world where blueovalforums owned ford.


2-door everything, Manuals for days, and Panther Mafia for life.  It would be glorious.

Forgot the v8.

 

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On 2/5/2021 at 9:53 AM, theoldwizard1 said:

IMHO, they need another "kick a$$" engineer type in charge !

+1 for this

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Ford stock was up another 3.2% today, to a whisker below $12, after an Argus analyst upgraded the stock from hold to buy and set a $14 price target. That's three major upgrades in less than two months. If a modest dividend returns this year it could bring further upward pressure. But Ford needs to be careful, as FMC will need most of its near term profits to fuel its major restructuring and new product (including electrification) programs. 

 

----------------------------

Ford upgraded at Argus off macro factors

Feb. 09, 2021 9:21 AM ET Ford Motor Company (F) By: Clark Schultz, Seeking Alpha
  • Ford (NYSE:F) reels in another positive rating from Wall Street as Argus moves to a Buy rating from Hold.
  • Analyst Bill Selesky: "Our upgrade reflects our expectations for stronger consumer spending, helped by a new round of stimulus payments, low borrowing costs, and savings rates that have reached all-time highs. We also expect consumer spending to benefit as more coronavirus vaccines are approved and distributed. We forecast a 2021 U.S. SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) of 16.0 million vehicles, up from 14.6 million in 2020 (when unit sales fell 14%). At the same time, we assume that automobiles will continue to compete with other big-ticket items for consumer wallet share."
  • Ford was upgraded at Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan last month.

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Wall Street likes Farley and that they're going to have a clear plan for electrification.  Expect the price to keep going up. 

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1 hour ago, Taurus SHO said:

Wall Street likes Farley and that they're going to have a clear plan for electrification.  Expect the price to keep going up. 

 

In the next 6 months, Jim Farley may arrange an EV/AV day event for investors and media detailing its strategy for electric and autonomous vehicles. Farley's comment recently that Ford is "all in" with those technologies shows Ford is now playing to win. 

Edited by rperez817

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11 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

In the next 6 months, Jim Farley may arrange an EV/AV day event for investors and media detailing its strategy for electric and autonomous vehicles. Farley's comment recently that Ford is "all in" with those technologies shows Ford is now playing to win. 

 

I don't want to see some fancy powerpoint showing far off products that may never appear.  Skip that garbage and show actual product as it's ready.

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29 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

I don't want to see some fancy powerpoint showing far off products that may never appear.  Skip that garbage and show actual product as it's ready.

 

Investors don't need fancy Powerpoints, they want details on strategy including BEV and AV product plans, both short term and long term. An EV/AV Day event would be a good venue for Ford to convey this info.

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Investors don't need fancy Powerpoints, they want details on strategy including BEV and AV product plans, both short term and long term. An EV/AV Day event would be a good venue for Ford to convey this info.

 

What you described is literally a fancy powerpoint equivalent to the 2017 NAIAS "BRONCO IS COMING" announcement.  Great, you put a logo on a screen, how exciting!    I'd be far more impressed if they rolled out an actual vehicle, to be produced next year that nobody knew about, a la GT.

 

We already know this:

 

Short term:

Mach E

F-150

Transit

 

mid term:

midsize BEVs

Edited by rmc523

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Stock for all of the major U.S. domestic automakers are performing very well YTD, and Ford is up the most in that time! Auto stocks are rising, and here's what two traders are recommending (msn.com)

  • TSLA: Up 17%
  • GM: Up 29%
  • F: Up 34%

"Year to date, Ford and General Motors are outpacing Tesla, a top performer in 2020. Tesla has risen 17% this year. Ford is up 34% in 2021 and was upgraded Tuesday to buy by Argus Research. GM, which is up 29% this year, beat Wall Street's fourth-quarter earnings expectations on Wednesday. Both automakers have warned that a chip shortage could cut 2021 earnings.

It's encouraging to see Ford and GM "finally innovating" as the legacy automakers forge ahead on their electric vehicle projects, said Mark Tepper, president and CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners."

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For the first time since I bought my F stock (which was like 10+ years ago I think) as of yesterday, I'm actually making $$$ on it! I was just reinvesting the dividends to buy more stock till that stopped last year. 

 

Kinda wish I put that into Amazon when I got it at the then astronomical price of $300 a share (its $3K a share now!)

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Any word on when the dividend will be re-instated?  
 

Also read that a fifth generation Ford was nominated to the board to replace Edsel.  Maybe there will still be an independent family controlled Ford motor company after Bill is done. 

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8 hours ago, slemke said:

Any word on when the dividend will be re-instated?   

 

When I bought my F a little over a year ago I wasn't expecting all that much in capital gains given the stock's lackluster history in recent years. I was mainly in it for the huge dividends (with the stock price having come down so much). Then the price dips even further and I hold on (even increasing my holdings) figuring that with all the new product coming the stock value would eventually come back up. And boy, did it ever. In the last 6 months it has outshone even Tesla. The irony being that the dividend, my original reason for buying F, went away.

 

From what I read the dividend will return sometime this year, but at a lower level (which makes sense with all the capital investment Ford still needs to do). I understand why it needed to be put on pause, but it sure will be nice when it's back.

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Glad to see ford broke $13 and is so far holding it 

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Seeking Alpha article, pulling intro bullets and final paras.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413962-ford-is-here-to-win

 

Summary

  • Ford continues to rally hard.
  • Even so, it is reasonably priced on forward earnings.
  • Ford looks poised to be a major winner in electrification

...We can see a strong, sustained upgrade cycle going on with Ford’s EPS estimates, which I think plays into the valuation continuing to rise; investors are trying to stay ahead of the EPS upgrades that have been coming in strongly for the past year or so.

 

Putting all of this together, I see Ford as very attractive. I don’t want to chase the stock at its high, but a pullback to the 20-day EMA would be a terrific entry point. Ford isn’t necessarily cheap by historical standards, but for an innovative company with the ability to execute – in an industry where that in itself is a competitive advantage – less than nine times forward earnings seem quite reasonable.

 

Ford is a buy.

 

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Posted (edited)

I think some of the movements in Ford is also pricing in Ford's stake in Rivian. 

 

Ford never disclosed how much of Rivian it owns but it is rumored to be something like 15~20% of Rivian. Rivian is said to be working on a $50 billion IPO so that implies Ford's $500 million investment in Rivian is now worth roughly $7.5~$10 billion.

 

Ford's market cap is roughly $50 billion also after recent run up. The most valuable part of Ford may turn out to be its investment in Rivian.

 

But if you think about the valuation carefully and what it means, it really shows how under-valued Ford was and still is. Rivian hasn't sold a single car and is worth as much as Ford which sold millions of cars last year. 

Edited by bzcat

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I bought a few shares when it was at 10 a share glad to see it going up

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22 hours ago, probowler said:

Glad to see ford broke $13 and is so far holding it 

 

Spoke too soon...F like IBM is a heart breaker. It will go up significantly for a month or so and then fall back to its default position. Always something.

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31 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Spoke too soon...F like IBM is a heart breaker. It will go up significantly for a month or so and then fall back to its default position. Always something.

True, however the whole market is walking back today so I'm not too worried. Once the new vehicles start pumping out and if the economy opens up, ford should be good to go.

 

The biggest problem I foresee for ford is rising gas prices hurting demand for their trucks/utilities,  and more jobs slipping away oversees. If people can't afford new cars due to inflation, depressed wages, and more lost jobs then that could be a problem.

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44 minutes ago, probowler said:

True, however the whole market is walking back today so I'm not too worried. Once the new vehicles start pumping out and if the economy opens up, ford should be good to go.

 

The biggest problem I foresee for ford is rising gas prices hurting demand for their trucks/utilities,  and more jobs slipping away oversees. If people can't afford new cars due to inflation, depressed wages, and more lost jobs then that could be a problem.

 

Like I said...."it's always something." A huge recall, a reduced credit rating, parts shortages, union problems, fire in a factory, higher fuel prices, and on and on. I've owned F since the 90's and it was one of my "loser" stocks along with IBM and XOM. However, at least IBM and XOM pay consistent , increasing dividends. However, X plan came in nicely when buying the hybrid Escape which has saved money at the pump too. So can't whine too much.

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20 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Spoke too soon...F like IBM is a heart breaker. It will go up significantly for a month or so and then fall back to its default position. Always something.

Dang. This seems to be the reason. $2 billion in a new convertible bond offering that will, in part, help retire some of Ford's outstanding debt. "Convertible" means that buyers will be able to convert the bonds to stock down the road, meaning stock dilution. 

 

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ford-shares-slip-lower-on-2-billion-convertible-bond-sale-plans

"Ford Motor Co  (F) - Shares reversed earlier gains Tuesday after the carmaker said it would raise around $2 billion from a convertible bond sale.

 

"Ford said the five-year senor notes can ultimately be converted into common shares, but noted the rate and prices will be determined as it markets the securities to investors. Proceeds from the sale, Ford said, will be for 'general corporate purposes, including the potential repayment of debt.'

 

"Convertible bonds can be a cheap method of capital raising for a company, compared to traditional debt sales, as the enticement of converting the notes into commons shares allows investors to accept a lower interest rate..."

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Yesterday Investor's Business Daily highlighted F as stock of the day.

 

https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-of-the-day/ford-stock-hits-buy-zone-electric-vehicle-shift-speeds-up/

 

"Ford Motor (F) is the IBD Stock Of The Day as the nation's No. 2 automaker wins converts on Wall Street with its revamp. Ford stock hit a buy range.

 

"On Monday, Wells Fargo initiated Ford stock with an overweight rating and 15 price target. Analysts at the firm cited the pace of transformation under new CEO Jim Farley, who took the helm last October.

 

" 'The turnaround is a massive change,' said analyst Colin Langan. 'Ford is no longer focused on having a product for all markets, but rather focused on delivering products in segments with competitive strength — pickups and SUVs.'

 

"Under Farley, he added, Ford seems to be accelerating its shift to electric vehicles. That includes a new Mustang Mach-E electric crossover, part of 'one of the strongest lineups in decades,' Langan said.

 

"Other new vehicles include a refreshed version of Ford's bestselling F-150 pickup and resurrected Bronco brand of SUVs..."

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9 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

" 'The turnaround is a massive change,' said analyst Colin Langan. 'Ford is no longer focused on having a product for all markets, but rather focused on delivering products in segments with competitive strength — pickups and SUVs.'

 

Good news that analysts like Langan recognize the long term impact Ford's transformation. These are a direct result of Jim Hackett's plan to get Ford "fit" again finally paying off for the company.

 

Once Ford makes major announcements about BEV versions of those pickups and SUVs, and about getting closer to an all electric vehicle lineup worldwide, Ford stock performance will jump even higher.

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