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Oakville Assembly Plant - Explorer & Aviator EV's

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Ford Explorer & Lincoln Aviator EV's Will Be Oakville's Only Vehicles

https://fordauthority.com/2022/11/ford-explorer-lincoln-aviator-evs-will-be-oakvilles-only-vehicles/

 

Ford-Oakville-Ontario-Canada-Assembly-Plant-Exterior-006.jpg

 

Currently, the Oakville Assembly plant in Canada produces the Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus for North America, but that facility will stop building both the mainstream crossover and its luxury counterpart after the 2023 model year. As Ford Authority reported in 2020, the Oakville plant was slated to replace those models with five new EVs in 2025 following a complete retooling in 2024 – including all-electric versions of the Ford Explorer and Lincoln Aviator crossovers. In fact, an “Explorer-like” EV is slated to become the automaker’s next all-electric model, while Lincoln plans on rolling out four new second-generation EVs by 2026. However, it seems as if The Blue Ovals’ plans have changed somewhat in the past two years, and now the Ford Explorer and Lincoln Aviator EVs will be the only two models built at Oakville, according to Automotive News Canada.

Edited by ice-capades
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28 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

Ford Explorer & Lincoln Aviator EV's Will Be Oakville's Only Vehicles

https://fordauthority.com/2022/11/ford-explorer-lincoln-aviator-evs-will-be-oakvilles-only-vehicles/

 

Ford-Oakville-Ontario-Canada-Assembly-Plant-Exterior-006.jpg

 

Currently, the Oakville Assembly plant in Canada produces the Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus for North America, but that facility will stop building both the mainstream crossover and its luxury counterpart after the 2023 model year. As Ford Authority reported in 2020, the Oakville plant was slated to replace those models with five new EVs in 2025 following a complete retooling in 2024 – including all-electric versions of the Ford Explorer and Lincoln Aviator crossovers. In fact, an “Explorer-like” EV is slated to become the automaker’s next all-electric model, while Lincoln plans on rolling out four new second-generation EVs by 2026. However, it seems as if The Blue Ovals’ plans have changed somewhat in the past two years, and now the Ford Explorer and Lincoln Aviator EVs will be the only two models built at Oakville, according to Automotive News Canada.

5 vehicles seemed too good to be true in the first place. They probably pulled some of what they planned out of Oakville and put it toward BOC. Who knows anyways and it will be interesting to see if they even meet those production targets of 230000. Will the demand even be there??? What happens to Chicago Assembly going forward??? Volume will reduce at Chicago. It will be interesting to see what plants are left standing after all of this ICE to BEV transition is sorted out. This once again reinforces what I say all the time about Ford changing plans.  They can’t even provide a date when the demolition and retooling of OAC begins. I heard October 2023 the Nautilus ends at OAC. The March 29, 2024 Edge ends. That was from a forecasting site not FOMOCO. 

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It’s also possible they’re planning for big volume from those two, enough to take up at least two full shifts.

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23 minutes ago, akirby said:

It’s also possible they’re planning for big volume from those two, enough to take up at least two full shifts.

I hope so. People at CAP will now wonder about their futures. We all now ICE explorer has up to a decade left. Or am I wrong??

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1 hour ago, Oacjay98 said:

What happens to Chicago Assembly going forward??? Volume will reduce at Chicago.


Hopefully closed, they should have closed it in 2006 when they had the chance. That plant has always been problems, people at Ford knew you wanted a Taurus from Atlanta rather than Chicago  EV Aviator and Explorer will probably be close 300K units between the two of them plus with the Canadian and Provincial government stepping up should help a lot for the future of Oakville in the next 20+ years.

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34 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:


Hopefully closed, they should have closed it in 2006 when they had the chance. That plant has always been problems, people at Ford knew you wanted a Taurus from Atlanta rather than Chicago  EV Aviator and Explorer will probably be close 300K units between the two of them plus with the Canadian and Provincial government stepping up should help a lot for the future of Oakville in the next 20+ years.

The UAW will scrap like hell to keep  CAP running in the future. I’ve heard of the problems at CAP and I don’t advocate closure. That will cost ford a cool billion or two.

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26 minutes ago, Captainp4 said:

Guess the 5 new EVs were vApORwARe

As in VW based electric vehicles……

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29 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

As in VW based electric vehicles……

I was thinking to myself what makes us at OAC so special that Ford would give us 5 vehicles especially when BOC is being built. I hope their plan is a good one our government gave them a cool 590 million. Wind down old Edge Nautilus with inconsistent work then sit down for almost a year. GREAT! Then again, it’s better than the facility being closed! 

Edited by Oacjay98

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36 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

The UAW will scrap like hell to keep  CAP running in the future. I’ve heard of the problems at CAP and I don’t advocate closure. That will cost ford a cool billion or two.


They have spent more than 2 Billion in settling lawsuits that come out of that plant over the past 10 years (By some accounts the lawsuits settled there are more than every other plant in the US combined), and that is on top of the massive quality issues. 2 Billion is a good investment if it removes a 30 year very expensive thorn.  While some of the quality issues are engineering  most are assembly and attitude, absenteeism is another issue. In the late 90's a Taurus out of Atlanta had some of the lowest warranty costs in the US while a Taurus out of Chicago would have some of the highest that mentality has stuck around. Ford has excess plants after BoC opens so plants are going to close. Short list would be Chicago and Flat Rock. FRAP is at least at a point in product timing and location to Battery Plants that may help it dramatically secure product. What will also hurt CAP will be keeping the Gas Explorer/PI going for a while as the full market has switched to Electric. CAP will be one of the last Gas Vehicles in the stable to satisfy a rural and Law enforcement market and by then Ford will have build out production space for Electric. CAP has a lot of issues; it is land locked, plant layout, not in a good area, has constant Union issues, horrible absenteeism and low quality. 

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33 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

I was thinking to myself what makes us at OAC so special that Ford would give us 5 vehicles especially when BOC is being built. I hope their plan is a good one out government gave them a cool 590 million. Wind down old Edge Nautilus with inconsistent work then sit down for almost a year. GREAT! Then again, it’s better than the facility being closed! 

Originally, OAC was going to build all the compact BEVs on VW’s MEB which could stretch two row Edge/Nautilus sized vehicle.

A lot of it was kite flying because Ford became aware of how expensive licensing the use of MEB was as well as the problems with cost and build time that Herbert Diess openly criticised VW about and subsequently was fired  over that.

 

 I suspect you’ll start building BEVs at Oakville in 2024 starting at one shift and go from there. Chicago production and sales won’t be affected in the next two years so nothing about CAP wind down in the fast approaching UAW agreement….

 

 

Edited by jpd80

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43 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

As in VW based electric vehicles……


I know, just a little poking at those that think external forces and circumstance only affect F

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Well this gives more credence to the CE1 being the path forward for Ford for smaller products. 
 

I just wonder about how much profitability could be affected by building it in Canada vs the US, but also I can’t remember a time when the CAD has really been at parity with the USD either. 

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Well this gives more credence to the CE1 being the path forward for Ford for smaller products. 
 

I just wonder about how much profitability could be affected by building it in Canada vs the US, but also I can’t remember a time when the CAD has really been at parity with the USD either. 

2008 was the last time CAD was at parity with USD I believe 

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1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Originally, OAC was going to build all the compact BEVs on VW’s MEB which could stretch two row Edge/Nautilus sized vehicle.

A lot of it was kite flying because Ford became aware of how expensive licensing the use of MEB was as well as the problems with cost and build time that Herbert Diess openly criticised VW about and subsequently was fired  over that.

 

 I suspect you’ll start building BEVs at Oakville in 2024 starting at one shift and go from there. Chicago production and sales won’t be affected in the next two years so nothing about CAP wind down in the fast approaching UAW agreement….

 

 

Yeah it probably will be one shift to start which isn’t good either 

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1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:


They have spent more than 2 Billion in settling lawsuits that come out of that plant over the past 10 years (By some accounts the lawsuits settled there are more than every other plant in the US combined), and that is on top of the massive quality issues. 2 Billion is a good investment if it removes a 30 year very expensive thorn.  While some of the quality issues are engineering  most are assembly and attitude, absenteeism is another issue. In the late 90's a Taurus out of Atlanta had some of the lowest warranty costs in the US while a Taurus out of Chicago would have some of the highest that mentality has stuck around. Ford has excess plants after BoC opens so plants are going to close. Short list would be Chicago and Flat Rock. FRAP is at least at a point in product timing and location to Battery Plants that may help it dramatically secure product. What will also hurt CAP will be keeping the Gas Explorer/PI going for a while as the full market has switched to Electric. CAP will be one of the last Gas Vehicles in the stable to satisfy a rural and Law enforcement market and by then Ford will have build out production space for Electric. CAP has a lot of issues; it is land locked, plant layout, not in a good area, has constant Union issues, horrible absenteeism and low quality. 

Thanks for the info I have a better understanding of the situation at CAP now.

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2 hours ago, jasonj80 said:


They have spent more than 2 Billion in settling lawsuits that come out of that plant over the past 10 years (By some accounts the lawsuits settled there are more than every other plant in the US combined), and that is on top of the massive quality issues. 2 Billion is a good investment if it removes a 30 year very expensive thorn.  While some of the quality issues are engineering  most are assembly and attitude, absenteeism is another issue. In the late 90's a Taurus out of Atlanta had some of the lowest warranty costs in the US while a Taurus out of Chicago would have some of the highest that mentality has stuck around. Ford has excess plants after BoC opens so plants are going to close. Short list would be Chicago and Flat Rock. FRAP is at least at a point in product timing and location to Battery Plants that may help it dramatically secure product. What will also hurt CAP will be keeping the Gas Explorer/PI going for a while as the full market has switched to Electric. CAP will be one of the last Gas Vehicles in the stable to satisfy a rural and Law enforcement market and by then Ford will have build out production space for Electric. CAP has a lot of issues; it is land locked, plant layout, not in a good area, has constant Union issues, horrible absenteeism and low quality. 

Ford will be asking for a lot of labor trouble if they start closing legacy plants and moving production to a new plant in a right-to-work state that is not guaranteed to recognize the UAW.  

 

As for EVs I'm still a skeptic.  Will they get a solid 25-30 percent of the market within the next 10 years?  Sure.  But I don't think we will see 100 EV adoption for several decades if ever.  I think BOC will end up something like the Saturn plant in nearby Spring Hill.  A lot of expectations but the end result will be something less than promised. 

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44 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

As for EVs I'm still a skeptic.  Will they get a solid 25-30 percent of the market within the next 10 years?  Sure.  But I don't think we will see 100 EV adoption for several decades if ever.  I think BOC will end up something like the Saturn plant in nearby Spring Hill.  A lot of expectations but the end result will be something less than promised. 


Estimates are saying 45% of new cars sales will be BEVs in 12 years or so

 

https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0421/675485260-0421-CU-AUT-ZEV-Whitepaper.pdf

 

but also adoption rates have been doubling each year also for BEVs, so you might see it even faster then that. 

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24 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:


Estimates are saying 45% of new cars sales will be BEVs in 12 years or so

 

https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0421/675485260-0421-CU-AUT-ZEV-Whitepaper.pdf

 

but also adoption rates have been doubling each year also for BEVs, so you might see it even faster then that. 

I will believe that when I see it.  The move to BEV is going to greatly depend on charging infrastructure and solid state batteries (time to charge and range) as well as cost parity with ICE.  If all of these move along quickly you may see that 45% of new car sales in 12 years.  If one or more if not all of them move slower towards reality then you may be at more like 25% in that 12 year period if not lower.  Time will tell and BEV also have to fight against the natural inclination against change a lot of people have.

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34 minutes ago, tzach said:

I will believe that when I see it.  The move to BEV is going to greatly depend on charging infrastructure and solid state batteries (time to charge and range) as well as cost parity with ICE.  If all of these move along quickly you may see that 45% of new car sales in 12 years.  If one or more if not all of them move slower towards reality then you may be at more like 25% in that 12 year period if not lower.  Time will tell and BEV also have to fight against the natural inclination against change a lot of people have.


Everybody wants to ignore the need for fast public chargers and cheap vehicles but your assessment is spot on.

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58 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:


Estimates are saying 45% of new cars sales will be BEVs in 12 years or so

 

https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0421/675485260-0421-CU-AUT-ZEV-Whitepaper.pdf

 

but also adoption rates have been doubling each year also for BEVs, so you might see it even faster then that. 

 

12 years from now is the latter part of calendar year 2034. Ford's own plan is 100% ZEV (which means BEV for non-commercial vehicles) by 2035 in all major markets including U.S. and Canada. In the U.S. market specifically, the "BEV for 45% of new car sales" milestone should be reached well before 2030 at the current rate of growth (which is likely to accelerate in the next few years).

 

Explorer BEV + Aviator BEV by themselves should be plenty to keep OAC at high utilization once start of production takes place. Those 2 vehicles represent the heart of the BEV crossover market.

Edited by rperez817

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52 minutes ago, akirby said:


Everybody wants to ignore the need for fast public chargers and cheap vehicles but your assessment is spot on.

 

This is on my local ballot.

 

HRG

Dupage chargers.JPG

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2 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

Yeah it probably will be one shift to start which isn’t good either 

In saying that, it could depend on reservations and orders, if they go crazy beforehand, Ford will be ready this time…..

(we hope)

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The midsize EV has traveled long and dramatic journey. At one point or another, it was supposed to be build in Mexico, then Flat Rock, then back to Mexico, then Ohio, and BOC, and now finally confirmed in Oakville.

 

The MEB at Oakville plan fizzled. Originally, Corsair EV was going to be the first model in Oakville. About a year ago, I mentioned the lack of news about MEB in Oakville probably means Ford is not going thru with MEB in North America and this is the final confirmation.

 

I think two take aways here...

1. Ford is growing much more confident about its EV plans. Originally, they were going to parallel build Escape/Corsair in Oakville (EV) and Louisville (ICE). Now it looks like they will go cold turkey and pull the plug (bad metaphor 🤣 ) on ICE Escape/Corsair in 2025 or so.

2. As some people rightly pointed out already, Chicago doesn't have any product other than keep building Police Interceptor beyond 2025. What we don't know is if there are any new EV CUV Ford has in the product pipeline... I guess we won't know until UAW contract negotiation is done but I think long term, Ford must have more EV CUV planned beyond Escape, Mach E, and Explorer. Ford needs an EV below Escape and an alternative to Mach E that leans more utility than sport. 

 

Edited by bzcat

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CE1 is supposed to be Bronco Sport and Maverick at Louisville in 2027. The timing suggests that the team doing GE2 platform will review Mach E’s GE Platform and upgrade to Gen 2 equipment, Mach E presumably gets rolling upgrades while the two new vehicles are variations of that.

 

Ford is still very secretive about this but looking more like trusting its own design over outsourcing from VW which was all about battery supply that Ford will have covered in a year or so….

VW have their own problems with MEB, keep that to themselves.

Edited by jpd80

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