June '23-Sales Report

[ausrutherford]

3 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

The ATP's only benefit the Dealers. Ford gets paid the invoice amount and doesn't benefit from the sales prices paid, including and ADM's.  

 

My point is that Ford is making more profit per unit of Bronco than the Ranger. 

[HotRunrGuy]

46 minutes ago, ausrutherford said:

 

My point is that Ford is making more profit per unit of Bronco than the Ranger. 

 

Are you privy to the financials, or is that an assumption?  If there is a breakdown by model, I'd sure be interested in seeing that.

 

HRG

[fuzzymoomoo]

15 minutes ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

Are you privy to the financials, or is that an assumption?  If there is a breakdown by model, I'd sure be interested in seeing that.

 

HRG

If it were the other way around then Ranger production would be prioritized 

[HotRunrGuy]

22 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

If it were the other way around then Ranger production would be prioritized 

 

I don't disagree, just trying to separate opinion from fact. Higher pricing does not guarantee higher profit.

 

HRG

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

Are you privy to the financials, or is that an assumption?  If there is a breakdown by model, I'd sure be interested in seeing that.

 

HRG

Ford offering those high priced $50,000 to $80,000 versions of Bronco are absolutely money in the bank.

I cannot believe the prices that Ford is commanding for those models, “the fish is jumping in the boat”.

 

 

[akirby]

5 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

 

My point is that Ford is making more profit per unit of Bronco than the Ranger. 

His point was you should say invoice instead of ATP.

[DeluxeStang]

On 7/7/2023 at 8:51 AM, Chrisgb said:

 

Toyota is planning a Maverick competitor  based on their TNGA platform which underpins the Rav4 and Camry. Maverick is poaching a lot of sales from Toyota and others. Dealers have reported a lot of Rav 4 trade-ins for Mavericks, and Toyota won't sit still and watch customers leave the fold.

I've heard conflicting stories on this. There are direct quotes from Toyota people after the maverick came out that they "Had no plans to offer a truck smaller than the Tacoma". At best, I've heard they're open to the idea in the future, but don't have anything in the pipeline currently. 

[akirby]

9 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

Are you privy to the financials, or is that an assumption?  If there is a breakdown by model, I'd sure be interested in seeing that.

 

HRG

If you can’t figure that out that $40k-$80k vehicles in high demand with almost no competition make way more profit than $30k-$60k vehicles in modest demand with several competitors then you’re clearly not paying attention.  Or you’re just stirring the pot.

[GearheadGrrrl]

For decades proponents and opponents of one model or another have argued over this, and real answers are quite evasive. For example, the starting price of the Bronco and Ranger 4x4 crew cab are similar, so a lot of the profitably of each is determined by how many customers choose upmarket trims and options. There is also the question of factory capacity or lack there of- If a factory shift would be sent home early with 8 hours pay without Ranger production to keep them busy, that lowers the Ranger's cost. On the other hand, if shifts are being held over into overtime to build Ranger's, that makes the Ranger less profitable. Factor in other variables like tooling and development costs and it can be even harder to ascertain profit and loss... No wonder fans are still arguing over Harley's decision to close Buell and other beloved but discontinued vehicles. 

 

[rmc523]

On 7/7/2023 at 8:41 PM, jpd80 said:

The priority on production is clearly keeping supply of F Series and inventory full enough to keep sales over 70,000 a month, everything beyond that is a bonus until the constant niggles in supply chain calms down (that could take years). 
 

I think that Ford is trying to do too much at the one time and it’s really causing them grief trying to get past some existing problems, the lack of more hybrids and BEVs exactly because not enough battery production reserved, It’s coming, yeah we know but living through the supply gap time is maddening. Lightning sales are what they are and any expectation of 5,000-10,000 sales a month ain’t gonna fly this year or the next for that matter, is Ford resigned to waiting for BOC BEVs to do the heavy lifting? 
Probably so.
 

 Ford’s production is like a big flywheel trying to regain momentum but thankfully, more customers seem to be getting their new vehicles. What’s up with CAP and Explorer/Aviator sales vs strong inventory, are they building some wrong  types to inventory?

 

 

 

Yeah, it's interesting seeing Explorer/Aviator - I'm too lazy to look back at production - perhaps a lot of it is in transit?

 

FWIW, Explorer/Aviator production in June was about half of what it was in May.

 

On 7/8/2023 at 1:22 AM, jpd80 said:

Currently, lower  gas prices will probably keep interest in hybrids at more modest levels but a great substitute for small diesels. It’s like a second chance for already developed ICEs to extend their usefulness under tightening CAFE regs. HEVs and PHEVs are  out of favour in Europe because of urban ZEV zones and harsher expedition of rating in charge sustain, American law makers could /should take a different view on this because of the USA’s more decentralised population, especially with inter city highway system and generally longer commute distances.

 

Yeah, I was referring more to US.

Edited July 10, 2023 by rmc523

[rperez817]

On 7/6/2023 at 12:36 PM, rperez817 said:

GM outsold Ford with BEV in both Q2 2023 and January - June 2023, though. Hopefully Ford ramps up BEV production dramatically in the 2nd half of this year and achieves its goal of 600,000 BEV run rate for calendar year 2023.

 

CNBC reported that Ford is in 5th place for U.S. BEV sales for January - June 2023. BEV sales for automakers in positions 2 through 5 combined are still not even 2/5 of Tesla's total though. EV sales: Hyundai overtakes GM, but Tesla's U.S. dominance continues (cnbc.com)

 

[Rick73]

14 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

CNBC reported that Ford is in 5th place for U.S. BEV sales for January - June 2023. BEV sales for automakers in positions 2 through 5 combined are still not even 2/5 of Tesla's total though. EV sales: Hyundai overtakes GM, but Tesla's U.S. dominance continues (cnbc.com)

 

What does all this mean to electrification schedule?  There is a lot to consider in that article.  It does not appear to be going smoothly for any manufacturer except maybe Tesla.

 

Hyundai vehicles do not qualify for federal incentives, but are relying on a leasing loophole.  Leasing only accounts for some vehicles, so what’s driving overall success?  Are they receiving state incentives or other subsidy?

 

GM sales are mostly based on affordable Bolt which will be discontinued later this year.  At opposite extreme Barra has a $300,000+ Cadillac in the works, though I have a hard time taking that seriously.  It’s worse than Hummer which doesn’t sell.

 

VW growth rate is excellent but at what cost?  Different reports state they are cutting back manufacturing at least in Europe due to buyer reluctance.

 

Ford sales at just over 2,000 per month this year would indeed require dramatic increase to reach 600,000 run rate.  Even if they can manufacture that many, can they find enough buyers at a price to make a profit, or would they have to give them away to make volume?  The pattern I see on list above is that best sellers are the most affordable; which should be expected.

 

 

Tesla volume essentially comes from most-affordable Model 3 and Y, and Hyundai are also “relatively” affordable for a BEV.  The article states the vast majority of GM sales were Bolt which are also affordable for a BEV.  The obvious question is how will Ford sales improve dramatically over next 6 months given cost disadvantages?

 

 

[fuzzymoomoo]

22 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Ford sales at just over 2,000 per month this year would indeed require dramatic increase to reach 600,000 run rate.

I think they’re talking globally for that number. Electric Explorer comes online soon in Europe, which will help. 

[rperez817]

4 hours ago, Rick73 said:

 The obvious question is how will Ford sales improve dramatically over next 6 months given cost disadvantages?

 

Any cost disadvantage for Ford BEV is a non-issue for the next 6 months. In that time period, the way to improve sales dramatically is to ramp up production so that supply is more closely aligned to the huge pent up customer demand for the company's BEV. Ford has made some progress on that front for F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E in 2nd quarter 2023, thanks to addressing technical issues that resulted in a production pause for the former and expanding the assembly plant for the latter.

 

Motor Trend's statement from last year still applies today.

Quote

At this point, Americans aren't waiting for EV technology to mature or the price to come down. They're simply waiting for the EVs they want to be built.

Edited July 11, 2023 by rperez817

[silvrsvt]

43 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Motor Trend's statement from last year still applies today.

 

I'm wondering how true that is now, esp with comments from VW about EVs...I know for example my state was offering deals for BEVs and they ran out of money because it was so popular. 

 

https://chargeup.njcleanenergy.com/eligible-vehicles

 

Guess we will see. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by silvrsvt

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I know for example my state was offering deals for BEVs and they ran out of money because it was so popular. 

 

https://chargeup.njcleanenergy.com/eligible-vehicles

 

Charge Up New Jersey and similar programs in other U.S. states are great, but there's the risk that consumers may be disappointed with having to wait to take delivery of their new EV even if they qualify for the state and federal incentives. But even without those incentives, expansion of BEV production from all automakers can't come soon enough.

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I'm wondering how true that is now, esp with comments from VW about EVs...

I expect that the war in Ukraine and subsequent shortage of electricity in Europe which forced old power plants to be reactivated has not helped VW or any BEV manufacturer, though some are doing better than others.  Not only is electricity more expensive, but also not as clean.  Europeans must know that at least for time being, BEVs are not contributing as much towards solving global warming as otherwise expected.

 

Even so, I think price plays a large role in BEV purchases.  VW will be manufacturing a smaller BEV called the ID.2all which should cost much less.  The name sounds like an attempt at a people’s car like the original Beetle.  Price is mentioned in +/- 25,000 Euro range.  That’s around $28K US.

 

https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/world-premiere-of-the-id-2all-concept-the-electric-car-from-volkswagen-costing-less-than-25000-euros-15625

 

Tesla is also offering option to keep cost down by offering the Model Y from Germany with RWD.  US version is currently only available with dual-motor AWD at higher cost than RWD.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/675265/tesla-model-y-rwd-berlin-cherry-red-quicksilver/
 

 

Looking at European data, it’s interesting that HEV are holding their own versus BEV in most countries except Norway and Sweden; and their population is relatively low so percentages don’t mean as much to the total.

 

[jpd80]

Off topic,

One small detail, Germany managed to build an LNG handling plan in a record 10 months,

which means that the severed Russian gas supply has basically been  mostly replaced.

It is my understanding that reactivation of coal fired power plants was a temporary measure

done while gas supply was stabilised, so hopefully those plants are now being deactivated.

I freely admit that the cost of energy has gone up but so has everything else….

Edited July 11, 2023 by jpd80

[Rick73]

16 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Off topic,

One small detail, Germany managed to build an LNG handling plan in a record 10 months,

which means that the severed Russian gas supply has basically been  mostly replaced.

It is my understanding that reactivation of coal fired power plants was a temporary measure

done while gas supply was stabilised, so hopefully those plants are now being deactivated.

I freely admit that the cost of energy has gone up but so has everything else….

A crisis like war in Ukraine exposed vulnerability to energy supplies which must affect auto industry.  If there is a shortage of natural gas, do Europeans prefer to generate electricity to power electric vehicles, or else use it to keep homes warm in winter and fuel businesses that support their economy?  No doubt there is still much interest in BEVs, but an energy crisis may influence some buyers to purchase Hybrid instead of BEV.

 

BEV adoption will likely face various major obstacles along the way — some anticipated and some not.  In US electrical generation and distribution limitations may have similar adverse affect if capacity can’t keep up with overall demand, part of which is unrelated to BEV charging needs.

 

Ford sold a significant number of hybrids, and that trend may continue with greater vehicle choices, particularly if affordable and efficient like hybrid Maverick.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Ford sold a significant number of hybrids, and that trend may continue with greater vehicle choices, particularly if affordable and efficient like hybrid Maverick.

 

Hybrids these days are sold as power adders to ICE and PHEVs at best are useless unless plugged in. If your going to get a plug in and spend the money to charge it at home, it just doesn't make sense financially for the money you'll "save"

 

Using the '22 Escape as an example-You'll save about $550(a year, about 10 bucks a week) going from ICE to HEV and then additional $450 if you go PHEV and actually plug it in. Using base MSRP for each, its about an additional 3-4.5K bump for HEV then another bump for PHEV. Using the numbers on the fueleconomy.gov, the fuel savings wouldn't even pay for the extra HEV would cost.   

 

This is why the EU put the kibosh on hybrids because it was just a shell game that didn't really show an major improvement in CO2 emissions. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by silvrsvt

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Hybrids these days are sold as power adders to ICE and PHEVs at best are useless unless plugged in. If your going to get a plug in and spend the money to charge it at home, it just doesn't make sense financially for the money you'll "save"

 

Using the '22 Escape as an example-You'll save about $550(a year, about 10 bucks a week) going from ICE to HEV and then additional $450 if you go PHEV and actually plug it in. Using base MSRP for each, its about an additional 3-4.5K bump for HEV then another bump for PHEV. Using the numbers on the fueleconomy.gov, the fuel savings wouldn't even pay for the extra HEV would cost.   

 

This is why the EU put the kibosh on hybrids because it was just a shell game that didn't really show an major improvement in CO2 emissions. 

 

Except we have to asterisk that EU data because I think they required HEVs to run in EV mode in cities, which would mean ICE mode everywhere else, rather than the most efficient application.

[akirby]

3 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

Except we have to asterisk that EU data because I think they required HEVs to run in EV mode in cities, which would mean ICE mode everywhere else, rather than the most efficient application.

Can we not rehash this again?  That horse is not only dead it’s been pulverized and turned to dust.

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Hybrids these days are sold as power adders to ICE and PHEVs at best are useless unless plugged in. If your going to get a plug in and spend the money to charge it at home, it just doesn't make sense financially for the money you'll "save"

I was referring to hybrid (HEV) and not plug-in hybrid (PHEV).  The previous data above for Q1 2023 in Europe shows that in Portugal, France, UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy, HEV sold better than PHEV or BEV; and in UK, Germany, Spain and Italy, HEV sold better than PHEV and BEV combined.

 

Ford June data shows hybrids (HEV plus PHEV) outsold BEV by more than 2:1 ratio, so I’m just saying that given similar trend in Europe, we should keep open mind when it comes to what buyers want and or can afford.

[silvrsvt]

28 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

I was referring to hybrid (HEV) and not plug-in hybrid (PHEV).  The previous data above for Q1 2023 in Europe shows that in Portugal, France, UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy, HEV sold better than PHEV or BEV; and in UK, Germany, Spain and Italy, HEV sold better than PHEV and BEV combined.

 

Ford June data shows hybrids (HEV plus PHEV) outsold BEV by more than 2:1 ratio, so I’m just saying that given similar trend in Europe, we should keep open mind when it comes to what buyers want and or can afford.

Here is the problem-your assuming that there will be nothing but EV sales in the next few years when that is impossible at this point in time. 

Ford and other manufacturers are working on what will be coming out five years from now not what is coming out in the next 12 months-that was decided at least 36-48 months ago. 
 

There is going to be gradual transition period over the next 10 years or so. New batteries and additional production capacity will help lower prices and increase range to make BEVs more appealing to people. 
 

 

 

[jpd80]

11 hours ago, Rick73 said:

A crisis like war in Ukraine exposed vulnerability to energy supplies which must affect auto industry.  If there is a shortage of natural gas, do Europeans prefer to generate electricity to power electric vehicles, or else use it to keep homes warm in winter and fuel businesses that support their economy?  No doubt there is still much interest in BEVs, but an energy crisis may influence some buyers to purchase Hybrid instead of BEV.

Gas shortage is no longer a concern like it was twelve months ago, so there’s no choice to make on rationing power.

In fact, there was never going to be a problem with coal fired power plants filling in while gas supply was stabilised.

To say the mindset in Europe on green power and BEVs is differ t to the US would be an understatement 

 

11 hours ago, Rick73 said:

 

BEV adoption will likely face various major obstacles along the way — some anticipated and some not.  In US electrical generation and distribution limitations may have similar adverse affect if capacity can’t keep up with overall demand, part of which is unrelated to BEV charging needs.

 

Ford sold a significant number of hybrids, and that trend may continue with greater vehicle choices, particularly if affordable and efficient like hybrid Maverick.

BEV adoption will be slower and more drawn out than what some people think, so I think that introducing folks to hybrids is a great way of educating ICE owners to the benefits, there’s gotta be a decade or more there for sales to transition. I know some states want to go non-ICE before that but I expect that as time draws near, there could be some variation of that adoption, maybe some softening of transition phase…