Auto Execs Are Coming Clean, EVs Are Just Not Working...

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, AM222 said:

The Flex's drag coefficient of 0.335 was good at the time, I guess. 

Nowadays there are aerodynamic bricks like the Explorer-sized Kia EV9 which has a drag coefficient of 0.28, about the same as the Mach E, and slightly better than the new Range Rover Sport (0.29).
 

A lot of the improvement in CD comes from more rake on the wind shiel

but don’t forget that the EV9 is also nearly 2” wider than the flex (78” vs 75.9)

so the total drag is probably going to be similar for both.

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, AM222 said:

The Flex's drag coefficient of 0.335 was good at the time, I guess. 

That was very good at the time, considering most sedans were probably in 0.30 or higher range.  Today it appears that cars in the +/- 0.24 range are becoming more common, though still well below average for ICE.  For BEV a few are pushing 0.20 with 0.24 fairly common.

 

Interesting that today some cargo vans claim aero Cd in same range as Flex, confirming how much technology has improved in that area.

 

Mercedes seems to take aerodynamics seriously, with some impressive Cd results per C&D below.
 

https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a31863081/aerodynamic-cars/

[silvrsvt]

I think improving Cd results is difficult to a point because at some point the amount of time/money that it takes to improve it is directly inverse to the cost of doing it. 

[Deanh]

17 hours ago, akirby said:

But still a brick compared to a Porsche 911.

ah...but how many can that 911 seat....?....or tow.....

[rmc523]

19 hours ago, Schpark said:

I still love my Flex.  Currently at 100K miles after 10 years and looking forward to the next 100K.  Great vehicle. Thanks OAC.

 

I loved mine - put a bit over 150k on it before I sold it.

 

6 hours ago, AM222 said:

The Flex's drag coefficient of 0.335 was good at the time, I guess. 


Nowadays there are aerodynamic bricks like the Explorer-sized Kia EV9 which has a drag coefficient of 0.28, about the same as the Mach E, and slightly better than the new Range Rover Sport (0.29).

 

The EV9 is also low like the Flex, even if it looks larger/taller in photos.  I was surprised how short it was (height wise) when I saw it in person.

 

Really, it's basically Flex with different styling.

Edited November 3, 2023 by rmc523

[blksn8k2]

I know political discussion is taboo but I suspect that another influential factor affecting the industry's hesitancy to jump all-in is that the 2024 presidential candidate who is currently leading in most polls doesn't seem to agree with the current government's plans. The reality is that if government subsidies and incentives are reduced or eliminated that would also have a pretty drastic effect on EV sales...

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Deanh said:

ah...but how many can that 911 seat....?....or tow.....

It seats me which is all that really matters… ?

Edited November 3, 2023 by akirby

[AM222]

1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

The EV9 is also low like the Flex, even if it looks larger/taller in photos.  I was surprised how short it was (height wise) when I saw it in person.

 

Really, it's basically Flex with different styling.

- Kia EV9 height: 68.9in (without roofrails) 

- Ford Flex height 68in

- current Ford Explorer height: 69.9in

 

Not much difference in height between the three. 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by AM222

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I think improving Cd results is difficult to a point because at some point the amount of time/money that it takes to improve it is directly inverse to the cost of doing it. 

With potential to save billions of dollars on batteries, and more on needed grid upgrades, I expect companies will continue to invest in wind tunnel and computer modeling to gradually reduce drag.  Obviously there is diminishing returns, but we are not there yet IMO; particularly on larger SUV and pickups.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

With potential to save billions of dollars on batteries, and more on needed grid upgrades, I expect companies will continue to invest in wind tunnel and computer modeling to gradually reduce drag.  Obviously there is diminishing returns, but we are not there yet IMO; particularly on larger SUV and pickups.

The problem is the bull nose styling that a lot of buyers like is probably the biggest

contributor to drag. So the more aero manufacturers try to make the styling, the less

those buyers like it and then the decision becomes form over function.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by jpd80

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

It seats me which is all that really matters… ?

Absolutely 

 

Porsche Cayenne CD is 0.36, not that anyone asked

Transit Connect CD is 0.31 which impressed the heck out of me 

Edited November 3, 2023 by jpd80

[Rick73]

Here’s a thought — or question I suppose.

 

Is it possible that news that most manufacturers were adopting the Tesla charging system within a couple of years, making it de facto charging standard, have caused some potential EV buyers to suddenly change plans and sit on the sidelines a bit longer?  I think it’s called the Osborne effect, and can affect sales.  Maybe average buyer doesn’t know much, but I wouldn’t buy any EV other than Tesla today knowing this change is coming soon.  There are short-term options, but wonder if potential buyers feel more comfortable waiting a year or two until new charging is fully integrated?  If nothing else resale might be penalized.

[jpd80]

More like the Ozzy Osborne effect, “how much?  F*** off,  you’re all a bunch of tossers” 

 

To many out there, EVs are over priced, they under deliver and they are just not needed by most buyers.

Without legislating ICE out of existence, people will keep preferring them over electrics.

 

All those reservations that Ford was holding, they were never going to be genuine buyers anyway.

makes me wonder about the 1.9 million Cybertruck reservations - a neat way to raise $190 million?

Edited November 3, 2023 by jpd80

[AM222]

10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Absolutely 

 

Porsche Cayenne CD is 0.36, not that anyone asked

Transit Connect CD is 0.31 which impressed the heck out of me 

The current third gen Cayenne has a drag coefficient of 0.35, and 0.34 for the fastback GT coupe version.  I believe the not-so-impressive figures are partly due to its wide tires.  

Edited November 4, 2023 by AM222

[silvrsvt]

16 hours ago, Rick73 said:

Here’s a thought — or question I suppose.

 

Is it possible that news that most manufacturers were adopting the Tesla charging system within a couple of years, making it de facto charging standard, have caused some potential EV buyers to suddenly change plans and sit on the sidelines a bit longer?  I think it’s called the Osborne effect, and can affect sales.  Maybe average buyer doesn’t know much, but I wouldn’t buy any EV other than Tesla today knowing this change is coming soon.  There are short-term options, but wonder if potential buyers feel more comfortable waiting a year or two until new charging is fully integrated?  If nothing else resale might be penalized.

That is part of the problem with EV sales-there is always something new coming out that promises some sort of break through. ICE is more or less settled without any major new gains coming down the road. Also IIRC I think Ford is sending out adaptors for Tesla chargers to current owners? If anything if I was going to get an EV now, I'd lease because of the possible improvements over the next decade or so. 

 

20 hours ago, blksn8k2 said:

I know political discussion is taboo but I suspect that another influential factor affecting the industry's hesitancy to jump all-in is that the 2024 presidential candidate who is currently leading in most polls doesn't seem to agree with the current government's plans. The reality is that if government subsidies and incentives are reduced or eliminated that would also have a pretty drastic effect on EV sales...

 

Doubtful, since this already happened back in 2020

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/06/26/major-automakers-choose-not-to-back-trump-on-fuel-economy-standards-rollback/?sh=14a32e334f95

Not to mention CARB is also driving decision making and CARB states make up something like 13 out of the 20 top selling auto markets. Then add in the EU and Chinese market mandates-why spend money on a declining segment that would leave you at a disadvantage long term?

[jpd80]

Ford is really stuck here, it needs BEVs to meet toughening CAFE and California aligned state ZEV rules. It needs Mach E and Lightning to be a success - both need to sell in the tens of thousands per month, not the thousands. Buyer resistance /apathy is a big problem 
 

Chinese sales of Mach E are an unmitigated disaster, selling in the hundreds instead of the thousands, the Chinese buyers are basically ignoring it after Ford’s online shit show meant that many buyers ordering vehicles missed registration deadlines.I don’t see it making any headway in China.

[silvrsvt]

38 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Chinese sales of Mach E are an unmitigated disaster, selling in the hundreds instead of the thousands, the Chinese buyers are basically ignoring it after Ford’s online shit show meant that many buyers ordering vehicles missed registration deadlines.I don’t see it making any headway in China.

 

Plus Chinese EV sales are mostly of cheaper models....

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Plus Chinese EV sales are mostly of cheaper models....

Ford basically blew the honeymoon period with inability to supply vehicles and not telling

customer when they could..

 

Anyway, II think Mach E is toast in China but Ford is going to have a hard time accepting that…..

Edited November 5, 2023 by jpd80

[blwnsmoke]

On 11/3/2023 at 4:11 PM, Rick73 said:

Here’s a thought — or question I suppose.

 

Is it possible that news that most manufacturers were adopting the Tesla charging system within a couple of years, making it de facto charging standard, have caused some potential EV buyers to suddenly change plans and sit on the sidelines a bit longer?  I think it’s called the Osborne effect, and can affect sales.  Maybe average buyer doesn’t know much, but I wouldn’t buy any EV other than Tesla today knowing this change is coming soon.  There are short-term options, but wonder if potential buyers feel more comfortable waiting a year or two until new charging is fully integrated?  If nothing else resale might be penalized.

I can tell you that if I was going to buy an EV, I'd wait till January with the new fed tax rebate law.  It will be able to be applied towards the price immediately instead of waiting for your tax return. 

 

And depending on your tax liability, could take several years to get it back in full currently.

 

 

[akirby]

11 hours ago, blwnsmoke said:

I can tell you that if I was going to buy an EV, I'd wait till January with the new fed tax rebate law.  It will be able to be applied towards the price immediately instead of waiting for your tax return. 

 

And depending on your tax liability, could take several years to get it back in full currently.

 

 

It doesn’t change your returns.  Think of it as a payday loan.  If you can’t take the full credit when you file you have to pay it back.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

It doesn’t change your returns.  Think of it as a payday loan.  If you can’t take the full credit when you file you have to pay it back.

So lower income buyers don’t get as much incentive towards buying BEVs?  They probably can’t afford anyway, but still …..

[akirby]

6 hours ago, Rick73 said:

So lower income buyers don’t get as much incentive towards buying BEVs?  

Of course not.  It’s always been that way,

[DeluxeStang]

On 11/3/2023 at 10:23 AM, rmc523 said:

 

I loved mine - put a bit over 150k on it before I sold it.

 

 

The EV9 is also low like the Flex, even if it looks larger/taller in photos.  I was surprised how short it was (height wise) when I saw it in person.

 

Really, it's basically Flex with different styling.

See, if this boxy Kia thing is already quite areo efficient, why didn't Ford adopt this styling direction for their BEV three row? It seems like they went for the science project design direction, with little benefit over conventional form factors. That's assuming, of course, that a largish 7 seater isn't gonna be able to get the drag coefficient much lower than 0.28 figure the Kia offers. Just seems like they played themselves. 

 

On 11/4/2023 at 3:26 PM, jpd80 said:

Ford is really stuck here, it needs BEVs to meet toughening CAFE and California aligned state ZEV rules. It needs Mach E and Lightning to be a success - both need to sell in the tens of thousands per month, not the thousands. Buyer resistance /apathy is a big problem 
 

Chinese sales of Mach E are an unmitigated disaster, selling in the hundreds instead of the thousands, the Chinese buyers are basically ignoring it after Ford’s online shit show meant that many buyers ordering vehicles missed registration deadlines.I don’t see it making any headway in China.

The thing is, Ford got it, until they didn't. EVs work when your development strategy is keep things fresh, which they haven't with the mach-e and lighting. They'll occasionally show off some new trim level, but they usually come across as half assed. Whereas brands like Kia are crushing it when it comes to their new EV offerings. Ford is making the same mistake they always seem to make, coming out with an excellent series of products, and then letting them go stale, watching sales crater, and wondering what went wrong. 

Edited November 5, 2023 by DeluxeStang

[GearheadGrrrl]

On 11/3/2023 at 3:01 PM, jpd80 said:

Absolutely 

 

Porsche Cayenne CD is 0.36, not that anyone asked

Transit Connect CD is 0.31 which impressed the heck out of me 

Transit Connect aerodynamics are impressive, coast down takes a half mile of so and the rear is well shaped for towing trailers- Pulled a motorcycle on a trailer this weekend and the MPG barely dropped at all.

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

See, if this boxy Kia thing is already quite areo efficient, why didn't Ford adopt this styling direction for their BEV three row? It seems like they went for the science project design direction, with little benefit over conventional form factors. That's assuming, of course, that a largish 7 seater isn't gonna be able to get the drag coefficient much lower than 0.28 figure the Kia offers. Just seems like they played themselves. 

The irony is that they had something similar to the current Explorer shape but obviously were concerned with conquesting existing ICE sales but also concerned that their battery range was a little wanting so went Aero and made it look like a 1980s Rover SD1 - they made it look like a car because they want a CD of around 0.26 by raking the frontal area  over like a dart. I don’t like it and no does the clinical trials.

 

7 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

The thing is, Ford got it, until they didn't. EVs work when your development strategy is keep things fresh, which they haven't with the mach-e and lighting. They'll occasionally show off some new trim level, but they usually come across as half assed. Whereas brands like Kia are crushing it when it comes to their new EV offerings. Ford is making the same mistake they always seem to make, coming out with an excellent series of products, and then letting them go stale, watching sales crater, and wondering what went wrong. 

In a nutshell Ford doesn’t understand it’s Chinese buyers and why on earth they would buy a Ford product over a Tesla 3 or Y. They absolutely murdered the honeymoon period and now everyone has mobbed on. Mach E literally sells in the hundreds now but Ford China has zero intention of exporting Mach E to near neighbours. It’s so stupid to set up low cost Chinese manufacturing and not exploit it throughout South east Asia and Australasian markets.