Auto Execs Are Coming Clean, EVs Are Just Not Working...

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

But for how long? I'm guessing the lack of luxury and EV sales are the canary in the coal mine when it comes to the greater health of the car sales market. 

 

The market has been so jacked up the past two-three years that I'm guessing we are still not at the levels pre covid or shortages either. 

I personally think theres something else which will raise its head as an EV alternative, AND be more viable as a mainstream alternative....but meanwhile, lurking in the shadows and plodding along..good old ICE...a LOT will depend on what our wonderful rulers deem is necessary for us....oh, and the Climate...LMAO.... 

[akirby]

36 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

It was meant as a joke, and for what it’s worth, you don’t know me at all; and even less what my hot button is.  I will say seriously that in my experience, people who are extremely wealthy have a different perspective on value of things; with possible exception of those who grew up poor and still remember the value of a dollar.  I find it funny when a guy justifies the great value of a $100k Tesla when he lives in a million dollar house and has million dollar toys.  I get it, to him it has great value, to the average American household that has little wealth not so much.  For me this difference is just a matter of fact, making price a reality we have to deal with.

I was referring to your disdain for hummers based on them being wasteful not the cost.  No CEO expects a $100k vehicle to sell in large volume.

[blwnsmoke]

34 minutes ago, Deanh said:

? huh? ICE is most definitely not cheaper , but there are more choices.....name aEV price there will be an multiple ICE equivilents.....exactly how many ICE vehicles are avail below 30k? whats the average Transaction price now? ...and keep in mind , with ICE theres far fewer warts and restrictions...

 

My passat tdi was in for service.. battling an ongoing emissions issue.  I average about 42mpg and travel about 700 miles a week.

 

I was given a Jetta as a loaner vehicle.  2023 with their 1.5T motor...   it's peppy and I averaged 46-47mpg with it.. I couldn't believe it.  And they are about $23k brand new.  If I focused in mpg, I'm confident I could get close to 50mpg.

 

At $23k and almost 50mpg on 87 octane, I wouldn't go EV.

Edited October 27, 2023 by blwnsmoke

[Deanh]

22 minutes ago, blwnsmoke said:

 

My passat tdi was in for service.. battling an ongoing emissions issue.  I average about 42mpg and travel about 700 miles a week.

 

I was given a Jetta as a loaner vehicle.  2023 with their 1.5T motor...   it's peppy and I averaged 46-47mpg with it.. I couldn't believe it.  And they are about $23k brand new.  If I focused in mpg, I'm confident I could get close to 50mpg.

 

At $23k and almost 50mpg on 87 octane, I wouldn't go EV.

Ill fess, I had NO idea they were( or anything else ) was  that cheap....Id come to the conclusion there was NOTHING below 30k and even then those were strippys...which echos akirbys "wants and needs " quote...wonder how sales on the Jettas are.

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, Chrisgb said:

I always thought the GM Volt design was the most practical. Like a diesel-electric locomotive, the ICE engine only turns a generator which supplies power to the electric motor and a short range battery. An Atkinson ICE and a 50-75 mile range on battery alone, with the ability to charge while driving or via the grid would be practical and economical for many. The 100% BEV strategy may turn out to be the 21st century version of AM stereo.

It's a chicken & egg situation. BEV demand will increase as charging becomes faster and widely  available; charging will become widely available when BEV demand increases.

The strange thing about GM’s Voltec  was that GM chose a compact vehicle to showcase this technology. Due to a tortured development process, the Volt went from a perceived $28,000 short range BEV to a +$40,000 BEV with a gasoline range extender added. In Bob Lutz own estimation, GM was losing upwards of $15,000 per vehicle sold.

 

On the ownerships side, drivers could get up to 53 miles of electric driving which many used exclusively to the point of software forcing the ICE to cut in to avoid gasoline in the tank becoming stale. When driven in normal mode, fuel economy was approximately 50 mpg but if run in charge sustain mode, that number dropped to 42 mpg - something that todays compact hybrid cars can attain or surpass.

 

Personally, I don’t think the Voltec system was all that good but it allowed GM to sell the sizzle of electrification but never realise the full potential of a properly designed PHEV. The lack of direct connection for the ICE to the wheels in most driving actually acted against fuel efficiency. When you add extra energy transfer steps between the ICE and the wheel, efficiency is lost compared a direct mechanical transmission.

 

Four Volts we’re actually sold in Australia at local price of A$60,000, one of the owners was reported as saying that he and the car are financially wedlocked until one of them dies.

Edited October 27, 2023 by jpd80

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, akirby said:

I think it’s almost all due to the huge recent price increases.  What people wanted at $40k is not what they’re willing to buy today at $60K.  Since most of these are wants and not needs I suspect inflation has made many reconsider buying any new vehicle right now.  Double whammy.

Sorry to dig back through the thread but your point is so valid, it’s absolutely pointless for manufacturers to keep racking up prices and claim more profits on fewer and fewer sales. Like you said, most of these sales are because people want a BEV, not because they actually need one, so when prices are rejected, they will go to other things like more affordable hybrids and maybe PHEVs.

 

The big question for GM and Ford is where do they go to from here…

 

 

[akirby]

22 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

The strange thing about GM’s Voltec  was that GM chose a compact vehicle to showcase this technology. Due to a tortured development process, the Volt went from a perceived $28,000 short range BEV to a +$40,000 BEV with a gasoline range extender added. In Bob Lutz own estimation, GM was losing upwards of $15,000 per vehicle sold.

 

On the ownerships side, drivers could get up to 53 miles of electric driving which many used exclusively to the point of software forcing the ICE to cut in to avoid gasoline in the tank becoming stale. When driven in normal mode, fuel economy was approximately 50 mpg but if run in charge sustain mode, that number dropped to 42 mpg - something that todays compact hybrid cars can attain or surpass.

 

Personally, I don’t think the Voltec system was all that good but it allowed GM to sell the sizzle of electrification but never realise the full potential of a properly designed PHEV. The lack of direct connection for the ICE to the wheels in most driving actually acted against fuel efficiency. When you add extra energy transfer steps between the ICE and the wheel, efficiency is lost compared a direct mechanical transmission.

 

Four Volts we’re actually sold in Australia at local price of A$60,000, one of the owners was reported as saying that he and the car are financially wedlocked until one of them dies.

The problem with voltec is it wasn’t as efficient as a regular hybrid due to conversion losses.  The 50 mile battery range was great.  My neighbor had a 50 mile commute with charging at work.  He only used about 10 gallons of gas per year.

[fuzzymoomoo]

7 minutes ago, akirby said:

The problem with voltec is it wasn’t as efficient as a regular hybrid due to conversion losses.  The 50 mile battery range was great.  My neighbor had a 50 mile commute with charging at work.  He only used about 10 gallons of gas per year.

Nevermind the fact that it was basically technology they developed as EMC (later EMD) back in the 1930s. 

[akirby]

16 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Nevermind the fact that it was basically technology they developed as EMC (later EMD) back in the 1930s. 

The GM fans didn’t like it when I said it had the same technology as a 1930s locomotive.  But it’s true.

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

I was referring to your disdain for hummers based on them being wasteful not the cost.

 

Correct, Hummers and similar vehicles don’t sit well with me, but for reason different than most might think.

 

Back when environmentalist were gaining momentum with BEV mandates, most studies they cited for justification were based on comparing average gas-guzzler cars and SUVs (~22 MPG IIRC) to the most efficient BEV available at the time; the Tesla 3 at +/- 4 miles per kWh.  Studies also projected decarbonization of the grid at a relatively fast rate.

 

However, the comparisons and estimates start to fall apart when BEVs like Hummers use more than twice the electrical power (less than 2 miles per kWh), and at opposite end we now have cars powered solely by gas that can achieve 50 MPG.  Compared to the studies I recall, some BEVs are roughly twice as dirty while ICE can be twice as clean, respectively.  That’s a huge swing compared to original study assumptions.

 

While I know an electric Hummer can’t be compared to a Camry directly, I believe in free choices and relatively free markets, and do not appreciate a mandate that restricts or prevents Americans from driving a cleaner Camry yet would let them buy a Hummer. 

 

So, it’s not the Hummer itself that bugs me as much as environmentalists who essentially say that anything electric gets a pass while anything gas-powered must be eliminated.

[DeluxeStang]

20 hours ago, Texasota said:

Ford currently has a decent lineup of hybrids and PHEVs that will help them survive. GM has nothing in the way of hybrids and they are going to feel the pain more than Ford.

Yeah, both brands have holes in their lineup for sure. GM doesn't have  bronco, bronco sport, maverick, transit, raptor, or mustang equivalents, all mistakes on their part. 

 

But they do have a desirable gas powered five seater crossover with the blazer, a halo performance model that elevates the brand substantially with the c8, a compelling cheap compact crossover with the new trax, and the sedan to appeal to that small, but vocal portion of the industry. 

 

Both sides could stand to learn something from the other. 

[rperez817]

The smart and forward-thinking auto execs will figure out how accelerate their efforts to completely revamp their companies' operations in the "pretty brutal space" for BEV that Harald Wilhelm of Mercedes-Benz mentioned. Competition is only going to get more intense from now on amid the ongoing automotive industry revolution.

[fuzzymoomoo]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

The GM fans didn’t like it when I said it had the same technology as a 1930s locomotive.  But it’s true.

The only difference is locomotives don’t have the batteries involved 

[Deanh]

50 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

The smart and forward-thinking auto execs will figure out how accelerate their efforts to completely revamp their companies' operations in the "pretty brutal space" for BEV that Harald Wilhelm of Mercedes-Benz mentioned. Competition is only going to get more intense from now on amid the ongoing automotive industry revolution.

Im not convinced a few big hitters wont walk away from EV......perhaps to pursue an alternative that makes a better business case without all the issues.....I know a couple of manufacturers...including Ford ARE testing alternatively "fueled" drivetrains 

[rperez817]

13 minutes ago, Deanh said:

Im not convinced a few big hitters wont walk away from EV......perhaps to pursue an alternative 

 

Any global automaker who walks away from BEV at this juncture is handing enormous business opportunities to their competitors on a silver platter. 

[jpd80]

39 minutes ago, Deanh said:

Im not convinced a few big hitters wont walk away from EV......perhaps to pursue an alternative that makes a better business case without all the issues.....I know a couple of manufacturers...including Ford ARE testing alternatively "fueled" drivetrains 

Perhaps governments should be looking at things like E85 fuelled hybrids and PHEVs as cleaner emissions vehicles than currently portrayed. I think there’s a lot of advantage in going that route as it will reach a higher percentage of customers, something manufacturers seem to have forgotten……

Edited October 27, 2023 by jpd80

[Rangers09]

9 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

And you believe everything you see on TV also? That is the point I'm making-I can go to the local BJs for gas (where its about 30 cents cheaper) and have to sit in a line for 10-15 minutes because everyone else is being cheap and spin it as a lack of gas/gas stations or whatever. 

 

There was issues back in 2019

https://www.businessinsider.com/holiday-travel-long-wait-times-for-tesla-chargers-2019-12#some-did-see-teslas-efforts-to-install-extra-chargers-although-too-late-to-be-helpful-in-the-moment-9

And this is from last year, talking about charging:
https://skift.com/2022/05/27/electric-cars-hit-the-road-this-holiday-weekend-but-charging-stations-still-a-big-hurdle/

 

 

As you can see there was a significant jump in the amount of ports from 2018 to 2021. 

 

Since I am not American, the graph you posted of US charging stations is irrelevant to me. I drive locally in Metro Vancouver and throughout BC, these are the areas I watch. Locally, I believe we have 4 or 5 non-Tesla charging stations, a number that hasn't increased in a couple of years.

 

When our left leaning media shows video of Teslas queued for charging and interviews some irate drivers it is highly unlikely to be a setup. So in this case, I believe the story was factual. Also heard from family in UK who observed BEV's queued at a Motorway service station waiting for a charger. Yes, I've waited a few minutes at a gas station, but the Tesla drivers on the news reported waiting well over an hour for a charger. Big difference. At that time, I'll suggest those drivers couldn't care less how many charging stations will be available in 3 - 5 yrs, since they were waiting for one now.

 

The BEV aficionados all spout the charging station network, charging time, limited range, etc are all improving. I agree with those statements; however, I don't purchase a vehicle on how things will be in 3 - 5 years, I'm only interested in how it meets my needs now. Based on the recent statements from Ford, GM and others regarding the softening of BEV sales, I'll suggest many vehicle purchasers have a similar opinion to me.

 

A PHEV/HEV is the perfect transition option at present, as when the battery hit 0 charge, I don't need to call a tow truck, or walk home, the engine kicks in automatically and about every 6 months, we top up the gas tank 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Rangers09

[akirby]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

The smart and forward-thinking auto execs will figure out how accelerate their efforts to completely revamp their companies' operations in the "pretty brutal space" for BEV that Harald Wilhelm of Mercedes-Benz mentioned. Competition is only going to get more intense from now on amid the ongoing automotive industry revolution.

You just completely ignore facts that conflict with your agenda….

[jpd80]

39 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Any global automaker who walks away from BEV at this juncture is handing enormous business opportunities to their competitors on a silver platter. 

There’s nothing wrong with taking a breath and asking whether product development and rollout is aimed at the right customers, are those customers even considering a BEV and if so, are our products matching their wants and needs?

 

Apart for Tesla with two compact vehicles, I see very few manufacturers filling any BEV needs because very few customers want BEVs at this time. The only locations embracing BEVs are Europe and China where emissions legislation is forcing customers to buy them and when you force people to buy certain vehicles, you’re not getting a proper view of what customers want.

Edited October 27, 2023 by jpd80

[T-dubz]

If they think demand is going down now, just wait until that $7500 from the government disappears.
 

Someone mentioned smaller, more affordable evs not selling well too. I think a big part of that is the design. Some of the early entries just weren’t very good looking, like the leaf and bolt. If they had actually tried to make these vehicles look good instead of focusing on aero, they probably would have sold a bit better. I think ford is going to repeat this mistake again with their 3 row wedge shaped EV.

[tbone]

2 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

 

 

A PHEV/HEV is the perfect transition option at present, as when the battery hit 0 charge, I don't need to call a tow truck, or walk home, the engine kicks in automatically and . About every 6 months, we top up the gas tank 

I was really worried about needing to call a tow truck yesterday for the Mach E.  It was VERY close.  

[Dequindre]

I'm in the camp of happily using an EV as a second vehicle and essentially testing the technology, but would never use one as a sole replacement of an ICE vehicle (at least not yet). EV charging infrastructure in Southcentral PA is bad (to put it mildly), and I have a 100 mile round-trip commute daily. With my particular use case, an EV would just not make sense unless I:

 

(1.) Purchased an expensive EV with more range, thereby negating the potential cost savings of electricity over gas, or...

(2.) Charged it every single night, which may wear down the range through battery degradation more quickly

 

PHEVs seem like a much better compromise that would work for most users. I've had Chrysler Pacifica PHEV rentals in the past and have been very impressed with them. 

[Rangers09]

1 hour ago, tbone said:

I was really worried about needing to call a tow truck yesterday for the Mach E.  It was VERY close.  

 

Another benefit of the PHEV is we can elect to use EV Later or Hybrid modes. Since our range has reduced by almost 50% with colder temps and using the cabin heater, on longer trips I set it to EV Later, using the engine at the beginning of the trip. At the point I figure I can get back home on electric, I switch to "Auto". If I miscalculate and the battery hits zero before getting home, no big deal, as the engine immediately cuts in.

 

With a pure BEV, I can imagine what you were going through. I assume your range has also reduced with colder weather and using the cabin heater and heated seats, etc. Last couple of days here have been freezing, with temps down to 1C (34F) in the morning.

 

[DeluxeStang]

3 hours ago, T-dubz said:

Someone mentioned smaller, more affordable evs not selling well too. I think a big part of that is the design. Some of the early entries just weren’t very good looking, like the leaf and bolt. If they had actually tried to make these vehicles look good instead of focusing on aero, they probably would have sold a bit better. I think ford is going to repeat this mistake again with their 3 row wedge shaped EV.

 Many EVs don't look good because they have funky areo designs. But EVs with more conventional designs have worse areo, meaning they need larger, more expensive batteries to put up respectable range numbers. Those EVs cost more to cover the cost of the larger, more expensive battery. Those more expensive vehicles struggle to sell, so the brand's try to cut costs, which leads to use smaller designs, which need those areo focused designs to do well. 

 

I've said it before, but it seems like Ford should try this funky styling EV trend on a more affordable model. People would be more forgiving of the styling, and something futuristic looking could actually appeal to people looking at more affordable cars, considering most affordable cars tend to look very generic and bland. 

[T-dubz]

47 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

 Many EVs don't look good because they have funky areo designs. But EVs with more conventional designs have worse areo, meaning they need larger, more expensive batteries to put up respectable range numbers. Those EVs cost more to cover the cost of the larger, more expensive battery. Those more expensive vehicles struggle to sell, so the brand's try to cut costs, which leads to use smaller designs, which need those areo focused designs to do well. 

 

I've said it before, but it seems like Ford should try this funky styling EV trend on a more affordable model. People would be more forgiving of the styling, and something futuristic looking could actually appeal to people looking at more affordable cars, considering most affordable cars tend to look very generic and bland. 

I think that’s true in some cases, but then you have cars like the model 3 which has a more traditional silhouette, looks decent (subjective), is affordable, and maintains a high level of aero. I think that’s part of the reason why it’s a best seller. 

It’s like the automakers think they either have to go full aero or full brick (in the case of trucks or SUVs), and there’s no in between. It’s that in between area they need to explore more.