MY93SHO Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, bzcat said: Porsche Taycan seems to suggest the market is ripe for more $100k+ luxury EVs The issue thus far is there haven't been any really good luxury EVs, other than Taycan. Porsche isn't known for its "volume" business. How many Taycans have been sold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, bzcat said: It hasn't stopped GM from selling Escalade for the same price. And what do you think Mercedes G63 is? It's a toy for rich people to play with limited range. Those aren’t BEVs with a 240 mile range. That’s the difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, ice-capades said: Right now one of the primary issues to BEV sales is driving range and buyers are being encouraged to buy and install charging units at home which may be convenient for a customer's local driving needs but doesn't address the long distance concerns regardless of all the press about charging stations available. At some point in the future (5, 10+ years) BEV's will start to sell in enough volume that it will start to have a real impact on gasoline sales. ICE vehicles will still be on the road for decades but wouldn't it make sense for the oil companies to start installing their own charging stations at their franchised gas stations? The thing about charging network for long distance driving is that it is only relevant if you believe people will use EV the same way they use ICE cars. Most EV owners will tell you empathically that they do not. You change your habits really quick. Tesla by virtue of being an early EV entrant had to convince alot of people that you can use EV like ICE so they went ahead and build the charging network. But the reality is most EV owners charge at home and they wouldn't contemplate taking it on a long trip, just like you wouldn't contemplate riding a bike across the country either. Driving an EV is committing to a different way to think about transportation. Just like when you bought your first cell phone, you start using phone differently. If all your life you have had reliable landline phone, and then someone comes along and tell you hey, we going to give you a new phone that doesn't have a physical connection to the phone line and you can not just talk on it but also send text, but the only thing is that it runs on battery and you have to plug it in to charge it or you risk running out of juice. What is your reaction? Seem like a bad idea to have a phone that can run out of electricity when my landline phone doesn't even need external power. Edited October 28, 2020 by bzcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, MY93SHO said: Porsche isn't known for its "volume" business. How many Taycans have been sold? 1,858 were sold in the US in third quarter 2020. Like I said, some of you are completely delusional about EV market and how much pent up demand there is for luxury EVs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, MY93SHO said: Porsche isn't known for its "volume" business. How many Taycans have been sold? Only 1800 for the first 3 qtrs in the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, bzcat said: 1,858 were sold in the US in third quarter 2020. Like I said, some of you are completely delusional about EV market and how much pent up demand there is for luxury EVs. How does 1800 translate to 20K? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, akirby said: Only 1800 for the first 3 qtrs in the US. 1,800 in the 3rd quarter. Over 6,000 in 2000 so far. 5 minutes ago, akirby said: How does 1800 translate to 20K? I didn't say GM will sell 20k. I said they will be very pleased if they can sell 20k. But it's easy to see how that is reasonable target when Taycan which is more expensive will probably hit 10k at some point - maybe as soon as 2021 when the cheaper version starts delivery. Edited October 28, 2020 by bzcat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, bzcat said: The thing about charging network for long distance driving is that it is only relevant if you believe people will use EV the same way they use ICE cars. Most EV owners will tell you empathically that they do not. You change your habits really quick.......... I don't disagree with this, but what you suggest is a non-starter for those who live in rural areas. Driving long distances is a fact of life and having the ability to charge on the road is a must. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, bzcat said: 1,800 in the 3rd quarter. Over 6,000 in 2000 so far. No that’s cumulative YTD US sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, bzcat said: The thing about charging network for long distance driving is that it is only relevant if you believe people will use EV the same way they use ICE cars. Most EV owners will tell you empathically that they do not. You change your habits really quick. Tesla by virtue of being an early EV entrant had to convince alot of people that you can use EV like ICE so they went ahead and build the charging network. But the reality is most EV owners charge at home and they wouldn't contemplate taking it on a long trip, just like you wouldn't contemplate riding a bike across the country either. Driving an EV is committing to a different way to think about transportation. Just like when you bought your first cell phone, you start using phone differently. If all your life you have had reliable landline phone, and then someone comes along and tell you hey, we going to give you a new phone that doesn't have a physical connection to the phone line and you can not just talk on it but also send text, but the only thing is that it runs on battery and you have to plug it in to charge it or you risk running out of juice. What is your reaction? Seem like a bad idea to have a phone that can run out of electricity when my landline phone doesn't even need external power. Understood but I've had a cellular phone for nearly 35 years, back when a "car" phone was unique and impressive to the masses. Even so, I understand the point you're making but have to think that a lot will change behavior-wise as the BEV market evolves further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 56 minutes ago, akirby said: No that’s cumulative YTD US sales. It's July to September - 1,858 deliveries https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/company/porsche-cars-north-america-retail-sales-third-quarter-2020-22498.html https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/company/porsche-cars-north-america-retail-sales-second-quarter-2020-21395.html https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/company/porsche-cars-north-america-retail-sales-first-quarter-2020-20392.html However, I did overstate the YTD deliveries. 6,000 apparently is the projected full 2020 deliveries not YTD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherminator98 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, bzcat said: Like I said, some of you are completely delusional about EV market and how much pent up demand there is for luxury EVs. Then if Tesla is so successful, why aren't they making their cars cost more/luxurious? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 56 minutes ago, bzcat said: It's July to September - 1,858 deliveries https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/company/porsche-cars-north-america-retail-sales-third-quarter-2020-22498.html https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/company/porsche-cars-north-america-retail-sales-second-quarter-2020-21395.html https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_US/company/porsche-cars-north-america-retail-sales-first-quarter-2020-20392.html However, I did overstate the YTD deliveries. 6,000 apparently is the projected full 2020 deliveries not YTD. I misread the sales numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 hours ago, bzcat said: The thing about charging network for long distance driving is that it is only relevant if you believe people will use EV the same way they use ICE cars. Most EV owners will tell you empathically that they do not. You change your habits really quick. Tesla by virtue of being an early EV entrant had to convince alot of people that you can use EV like ICE so they went ahead and build the charging network. But the reality is most EV owners charge at home and they wouldn't contemplate taking it on a long trip, just like you wouldn't contemplate riding a bike across the country either. Driving an EV is committing to a different way to think about transportation. Just like when you bought your first cell phone, you start using phone differently. If all your life you have had reliable landline phone, and then someone comes along and tell you hey, we going to give you a new phone that doesn't have a physical connection to the phone line and you can not just talk on it but also send text, but the only thing is that it runs on battery and you have to plug it in to charge it or you risk running out of juice. What is your reaction? Seem like a bad idea to have a phone that can run out of electricity when my landline phone doesn't even need external power. I understand on short term daily situations - yes your habits will change to the BEV charge at home every night scenario. But that completely ignores the long distance scenario. Wouldn’t consider taking them on long trips? So then what? You have to rent a car every time you want to take a road trip? Dumb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, rmc523 said: I understand on short term daily situations - yes your habits will change to the BEV charge at home every night scenario. But that completely ignores the long distance scenario. Wouldn’t consider taking them on long trips? So then what? You have to rent a car every time you want to take a road trip? Dumb. I contend that most people have BEVs as second or third vehicles and only use it for daily commuting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, rmc523 said: I understand on short term daily situations - yes your habits will change to the BEV charge at home every night scenario. But that completely ignores the long distance scenario. Wouldn’t consider taking them on long trips? So then what? You have to rent a car every time you want to take a road trip? Dumb. Why is that dumb? Do you own a bicycle? Most people do. Do you routinely contemplate taking a 1,000 mile bike ride? No you don't because it is not the right vehicle for the job. EV just like a bicycle is not the right vehicle to make those trip so why do people insist that EV must be able to do everything ICE can do? You wouldn't hold that kind of standard against other replacement technology. EV serves a different need than cross country drive. It doesn't need to be able to do that to be successful and relevant. What about things that EV can do that ICE can't do like never having to buy gas? Those don't have any value in your mind? Ok, so then you are just biased and not being objective. It's fine to live that way but that doesn't make an convincing argument why something is "dumb". I'm going to use the phone analogy again. Do you waste your time trying to argue that people shouldn't buy a cell phone because it may run of battery if you don't charge it? Or are you one of those people that buys a 4K TV and hooks it up to a VHS and discover the old home movie is super pixelated on the 4K screen and declare the new TV is "dumb"? Edited October 28, 2020 by bzcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherminator98 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, bzcat said: Why is that dumb? Do you own a bicycle? Most people do. Do you routinely contemplate taking a 1,000 mile bike ride? No you don't because it is not the right vehicle for the job. EV just like a bicycle is not the right vehicle to make those trip so why do people insist that EV must be able to do everything ICE can do? You wouldn't hold that kind of standard against other replacement technology. EV serves a different need than cross country drive. It doesn't need to be able to do that to be successful and relevant. Because a vehicle is the second biggest purchase that person makes behind a house. If a BEV can't do 90% of what a ICE car can do, it's a turnoff for buyers, no matter what their income levels are. Your analogies about other tech doesn't really hold water- consumer electronics get cheaper and cheaper as they become more outdated (or just plain cheaper to produce) and the tipping point becomes when a majority of people are able to afford them. BEVs are nowhere near that point and given the turnover cycle with autos (which is 2-3x as long as consumer electronics) Someone needs to come out with a BEV that goes 300-350 miles on a single charge in any weather conditions and only costs about $30-40K for it become mainstream. Meanwhile that company has to be profitable in doing that too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, bzcat said: Why is that dumb? Do you own a bicycle? Most people do. Do you routinely contemplate taking a 1,000 mile bike ride? No you don't because it is not the right vehicle for the job. EV just like a bicycle is not the right vehicle to make those trip so why do people insist that EV must be able to do everything ICE can do? You seem to be saying that a person needs two vehicles, an ICE vehicle for the highway and a BEV for around town. This smacks of arrogance. Where I live, most people can't afford to own two new vehicles, especially a part-time BEV for the city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 57 minutes ago, bzcat said: Why is that dumb? Do you own a bicycle? Most people do. Do you routinely contemplate taking a 1,000 mile bike ride? No you don't because it is not the right vehicle for the job. EV just like a bicycle is not the right vehicle to make those trip so why do people insist that EV must be able to do everything ICE can do? You wouldn't hold that kind of standard against other replacement technology. EV serves a different need than cross country drive. It doesn't need to be able to do that to be successful and relevant. What about things that EV can do that ICE can't do like never having to buy gas? Those don't have any value in your mind? Ok, so then you are just biased and not being objective. It's fine to live that way but that doesn't make an convincing argument why something is "dumb". I'm going to use the phone analogy again. Do you waste your time trying to argue that people shouldn't buy a cell phone because it may run of battery if you don't charge it? Or are you one of those people that buys a 4K TV and hooks it up to a VHS and discover the old home movie is super pixelated on the 4K screen and declare the new TV is "dumb"? The debate is whether BEVs can totally replace ICE/PHEVs and I’m saying people will not go 100% BEV until they can travel 8-10 hours and refuel along the way very similarly to what they can do today with gasoline. Now of course there are BEV faithful that will do whatever it takes but that’s a tiny percentage. The rest will want an ICE in the garage but would be willing to buy a BEV for local use and charge at home overnight. But that’s not going to work for people who can’t charge or people who can only afford one vehicle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, bzcat said: Why is that dumb? Do you own a bicycle? Most people do. Do you routinely contemplate taking a 1,000 mile bike ride? No you don't because it is not the right vehicle for the job. EV just like a bicycle is not the right vehicle to make those trip so why do people insist that EV must be able to do everything ICE can do? You wouldn't hold that kind of standard against other replacement technology. EV serves a different need than cross country drive. It doesn't need to be able to do that to be successful and relevant. What about things that EV can do that ICE can't do like never having to buy gas? Those don't have any value in your mind? Ok, so then you are just biased and not being objective. It's fine to live that way but that doesn't make an convincing argument why something is "dumb". I'm going to use the phone analogy again. Do you waste your time trying to argue that people shouldn't buy a cell phone because it may run of battery if you don't charge it? Or are you one of those people that buys a 4K TV and hooks it up to a VHS and discover the old home movie is super pixelated on the 4K screen and declare the new TV is "dumb"? You’re missing my point completely. And you’re really comparing a vehicle purchase to a bike? A vehicle is a 38k average purchase now - most people need vehicles to do anything they need and can’t afford to have multiple cars or rent another car for a trip. I’m not arguing that EVs don’t have advantages, or a place in the market, or even that they don’t have a future market. Just saying for most people they’re not a realistic option right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullynd Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 If my Mach-E isn’t convenient for a trip, I’ll take our Edge. If it’s a really long trip I’d rent a car anyway - rentals are cheap, and it not worth putting the mileage on my cars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 hours ago, silvrsvt said: Then if Tesla is so successful, why aren't they making their cars cost more/luxurious? They are. Model S Plaid is coming next year. More performance, more luxury features, more range added to an already superb product. Price is currently set at $139,990. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherminator98 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, rperez817 said: They are. Model S Plaid is coming next year. More performance, more luxury features, more range added to an already superb product. Price is currently set at $139,990. Holy dog whistling 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGR Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 10 hours ago, bzcat said: Porsche Taycan seems to suggest the market is ripe for more $100k+ luxury EVs The issue thus far is there haven't been any really good luxury EVs, other than Taycan. I just saw my first Taycan on the road while driving home from work today. Nice looking car! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullynd Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, AGR said: I just saw my first Taycan on the road while driving home from work today. Nice looking car! A month or two ago I saw SIX in one weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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