2005Explorer Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, rperez817 said: Your explanation is perfect 7Mary3. Ford's dysfunctional culture is a key reason why the company is under a lot more pressure than VW, Toyota, or GM, and ultimately is why Farley took the lead among incumbent automakers to separate BEV/advanced technology operations from ICE vehicle operations. Last year shortly after Ford announced its Ion Park battery R&D facility, Autoextremist came to his senses and provided a 100% accurate description of the latest "looming crisis for Ford". TIME: THE CRUELEST ENEMY. - Rants - Autoextremist.com ~ the bare-knuckled, unvarnished, high-electron truth... Crisis is the only thing that has kept Ford in business for almost 120 years. If everything was going perfect and on cruise control like it is at every other automaker I'd be very concerned about their future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said: Crisis is the only thing that has kept Ford in business for almost 120 years. If everything was going perfect and on cruise control like it is at every other automaker I'd be very concerned about their future. Good point 2005Explorer about the continual crises at Ford forcing the company to make hard decisions just to survive. However, Ford's competitors have to contend with the same industrywide issues (for example computer chip shortage), so it's not exactly "going perfect and on cruise control" for them. All automakers have their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The big difference between Ford and the others is organizational culture. Ford's has long stood out for its tolerance of making the same mistakes over and over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2005Explorer Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 51 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Good point 2005Explorer about the continual crises at Ford forcing the company to make hard decisions just to survive. However, Ford's competitors have to contend with the same industrywide issues (for example computer chip shortage), so it's not exactly "going perfect and on cruise control" for them. All automakers have their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The big difference between Ford and the others is organizational culture. Ford's has long stood out for its tolerance of making the same mistakes over and over. Well 120 years later they are still in business as the original company. The only legacy US automaker that has survived out of this... "Starting with Duryea in 1895, at least 1900 different companies were formed, producing over 3,000 makes of American automobiles." So even though you are extremely critical of Ford and consider them the poorest run automaker they seem to survive and thrive. I'm not saying they don't need some major structural improvements on the inside, but your whole "Ford death watch" is getting old around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Really great to see one of the key points made in this presentation was the importance of improving quality. Seems like Ford has really tried to improve their reputation for quality/reliability after Farley took over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said: I'm not saying they don't need some major structural improvements on the inside That would be a massive understatement. Fortunately, Jim Farley's decision regarding the business unit separation is a great start to making "major structural improvements on the inside" that Ford desperately needs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2005Explorer Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, rperez817 said: That would be a massive understatement. Fortunately, Jim Farley's decision regarding the business unit separation is a great start to making "major structural improvements on the inside" that Ford desperately needs. Well maybe you should apply for a job at Ford since you're a corporate restructuring expert. Go fix them instead of being a keyboard warrior. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said: Well maybe you should apply for a job at Ford since you're a corporate restructuring expert. Go fix them instead of being a keyboard warrior. Thanks for the recommendation but Jim Farley is a good businessman and is properly taking the lead on Ford's restructuring nowadays. He's the right man for the job. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2005Explorer Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Thanks for the recommendation but Jim Farley is a good businessman and is properly taking the lead on Ford's restructuring nowadays. He's the right man for the job. But is he really? He seems to think ICE still plays a role in the market. I believe you want all ICE products cancelled in the next year or two. I bet you could do much better then him. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said: But is he really? He seems to think ICE still plays a role in the market. I believe you want all ICE products cancelled in the next year or two. I bet you could do much better then him. Yes sir 2005Explorer, he is. While it certainly would be better if Farley could accelerate Ford's exit from the ICE age to be within the next year or two, "better is the enemy of good" in the context of Farley's restructuring plan. The process of getting Ford fit, continuing what Jim Hackett started, is still a work in progress. Farley's strategy to separate BEV/advanced technology from legacy ICE vehicles within a common corporate umbrella is very appropriate to push Ford forward to that "good" status. In a few years, a more fit Ford Motor Company may be ready to transition from "good" to "better". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 56 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Thanks for the recommendation but Jim Farley is a good businessman and is properly taking the lead on Ford's restructuring nowadays. He's the right man for the job. Jim Farley says that by 2026 Ford will be producing 2 million electric vehicles with 10% profit margin. Today, Morgan Stanley puts the production figure at about 550,000 with 4% profit margin. My prediction is about 750,000 with no idea what the profit margin will be. So I would say Farley needs to tone down his production goals a bit. Seems no one believes them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir 2005Explorer Ok, enough. Knock off the yes sir crap. It’s condescending and annoying as hell. 5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, akirby said: Ok, enough. Knock off the yes sir crap. It’s condescending and annoying as hell. Maybe he was in the military. Thank you for your service if true. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: Maybe he was in the military. Thank you for your service if true. Appreciate it FordBuyer. You are correct, I served in USAF from 1996 to 2008. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 11 hours ago, jpd80 said: I’m thinking of a situation like was done with old GM before it was wound up but selling way before that. Ford sells GM Ford Blue as a brand and permit them to sell only ICE versions of Ford nameplates, Ford Model E then only sells BEV versions of their storied nameplates but direct to buyers like Tesla. (It’s basically a lifeboat situation, selling everything at Ford except Model E ops along with dealerships) It’s the exact opposite of breaking out Model E as a separate brand and selling it. We'll have to agree to disagree. "Old GM" didn't include any of the valuable assets - it was literally throwing away the garbage - you're proposing to sell/get value from "what's left" of the good ICE stuff and all the valuable assets tied to that. You're wanting GM to be producing a "Ford" ICE with GM parts? All while you're also making a "Ford" EV with Ford parts? You don't see a problem with that? 8 hours ago, Footballfan said: What is this, the fifth restructuring since 2003? At the time Ford was the second largest automaker in the world-now they are number 8. You cannot have any continuity if you are changing long term plans so often. Whose to say this plan is going to work and in another year or two another CEO will be run? This shift to EVs is affecting all automakers, though. 2 hours ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir 2005Explorer, he is. While it certainly would be better if Farley could accelerate Ford's exit from the ICE age to be within the next year or two, "better is the enemy of good" in the context of Farley's restructuring plan. The process of getting Ford fit, continuing what Jim Hackett started, is still a work in progress. Farley's strategy to separate BEV/advanced technology from legacy ICE vehicles within a common corporate umbrella is very appropriate to push Ford forward to that "good" status. In a few years, a more fit Ford Motor Company may be ready to transition from "good" to "better". Delusional thinking. Yup, let's just throw 90% of our customers away next year because EVVVVVV! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 36 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Appreciate it FordBuyer. You are correct, I served in USAF from 1996 to 2008. Thank you for your service, but this is t the Air Force. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, rmc523 said: We'll have to agree to disagree. "Old GM" didn't include any of the valuable assets - it was literally throwing away the garbage - you're proposing to sell/get value from "what's left" of the good ICE stuff and all the valuable assets tied to that. You're wanting GM to be producing a "Ford" ICE with GM parts? All while you're also making a "Ford" EV with Ford parts? You don't see a problem with that? Sell them everything but the EV business, get out of everything ICE before it all becomes worthless. If true, the switch is coming much faster than everyone thinks… I’ve since discovered that the above plan won’t work because GM is not interested in anything like that because it plans to stop making ICE vehicles sooner than Ford does… And yeah, I might be the biggest chicken little ever seen on BOM but what if the fear of rapid transition to EVs is real? What else can Ford do if everything changes in the next five years and Farley discovers he hasn’t moved fast enough? What contingency plan does Ford have? Edited March 3, 2022 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Jim Farley has already said that Ford predicts 600,000 EVs sales by 2026, that’s roughly a third of US sales. Is this becoming a zero sum gain where BEV sales will directly replace/displace an ICE sale? If so, that’s a third of Fords ICE production capacity reduced in the next three years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, jpd80 said: And yeah, I might be the biggest chicken little ever seen on BOM but what if the fear of rapid transition to EVs is real? What else can Ford do if everything changes in the next five years and Farley discovers he hasn’t moved fast enough? What contingency plan does Ford have? You are very logical in your thinking jpd80, not a chicken little. ? The rapid transition to EVs is indeed real and inevitable. Jim Farley is a visionary, which should ensure that in 2027 he or whoever is Ford CEO at that point isn't caught off guard because the company hasn't moved fast enough. Within that time period, what industry analysts mentioned about a full spinoff arrangement of Ford's 2 business units is practically certain. In terms of specific contingency plans, they weren't explicitly mentioned in the Ford press release but knowing Jim Farley he almost certainly has one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, rperez817 said: You are very logical in your thinking jpd80, not a chicken little. ? The rapid transition to EVs is indeed real and inevitable. Jim Farley is a visionary, which should ensure that in 2027 he or whoever is Ford CEO at that point isn't caught off guard because the company hasn't moved fast enough. Within that time period, what industry analysts mentioned about a full spinoff arrangement of Ford's 2 business units is practically certain. In terms of specific contingency plans, they weren't explicitly mentioned in the Ford press release but knowing Jim Farley he almost certainly has one. I think for every legacy automaker going to EVs only will be a very, very tricky transition. Long and arduous. Similar to oil, gas transitioning to alternative energy. Or maybe going from horse, carriage industry to Model T and beyond. I would think 20 + years is realistic with millions of ICE vehicles still on road and in garages. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: Jim Farley has already said that Ford predicts 600,000 EVs sales by 2026, that’s roughly a third of US sales. Is this becoming a zero sum gain where BEV sales will directly replace/displace an ICE sale? If so, that’s a third of Fords ICE production capacity reduced in the next three years. No way it’s a zero sum game for the near future. But even if it was you’re still talking about 2M ICE sales (using pre Covid numbers) and several billions in profit. Why would Ford walk away from that especially when their biggest cash cow will be the last to fully convert to BEV (F series)? None of this makes any sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) Unfortunately Ford has made some strategic miss-steps on the road to EV's, in particular deciding on vendor-supplied batteries early on. That decision has been reversed and they now seem to be on the right track, though still a bit behind some of the other major manufacturers. Recent smash successes on the ICE side like the Bronco and Bronco Sport should help fund continued EV progress at Ford. So, there is much to be optimistic about. Ford Model E and Ford Blue will have discrete (separate) P&L's. Might be some significance to that. Speaking of General Motors (no, I don't see them taking Ford's ICE business), I find it very interesting they are pushing their battery and fuel cell technology into other fields such has heavy truck, military, railroad, household power and even marine markets. Very strategic moves on GM's part, they should contribute to their bottom line directly but also increase economies of scale for a lot of EV components. Edited March 3, 2022 by 7Mary3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 In case some of you are under the illusion that Tesla makes it’s own battery cells….. https://www.reuters.com/technology/panasonic-invest-700-million-produce-new-batteries-evs-nikkei-2022-01-24/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I haven't seen this component of the announcement discussed here (unless I missed it, which is possible): Quote Ford also is boosting its EV investment plan by another $20 billion -- or $50 billion total through 2026, Farley said. The company last May said it would spend $30 billion on EV development with a promise that four of every ten vehicles it sells would be battery powered by 2030. An increase of $20 billion in EV investment through 2026 is not chicken scratch. As far as I can tell, Ford have not detailed how that extra investment will be spent. I've read speculation that it's for refitting more plants for EV, but I can't help but believe that some portion will be for at least one more battery plant in North America (perhaps to supply the plants in Mexico). Thoughts from the group? Quote attribution: https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/ford-separating-ev-ice-businesses?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20220302&utm_content=hero-headline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 The devel is in the detail, Ford saying that 30% of global sales will be BEVs by 2026 ( not just Nth America) and 50% by 2030, I bet the percentages in Europe and North America are much higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, akirby said: No way it’s a zero sum game for the near future. But even if it was you’re still talking about 2M ICE sales (using pre Covid numbers) and several billions in profit. Why would Ford walk away from that especially when their biggest cash cow will be the last to fully convert to BEV (F series)? None of this makes any sense. Farley is saying 180 K Lightning production by 2024 which is a third of current F150 sales. So either Ford sees a massive influx of sales or the transition begins with two F150 plants dropping from three shifts to two…,,and that’s before the all new TE1 based Lightning arrives in ‘25. Some big conversations coming at the next UAW contract meetings but Fird isn’t alone, GM is planning to ditch ICE as soon as possible while Stellantis CEO says BEVs are all too hard…… sorry for sounding like chicken little but Farley’s latest moves set off something inside me, there’s bigger moves he isn’t saying publicly..,,,, Edited March 4, 2022 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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