7Mary3 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-18/ford-ceo-is-considering-ways-to-run-its-ev-business-separately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Yep it's probably going to happen. The new company will probably not be headquartered in Michigan either and the ICE component will probably be bought and gutted by a hedge fund company. Biggest indicator of this is how suddenly this big train station project has changed scope and recently was announced that all of a sudden it's now google and some high school class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 47 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Yep it's probably going to happen. The new company will probably not be headquartered in Michigan either and the ICE component will probably be bought and gutted by a hedge fund company. Biggest indicator of this is how suddenly this big train station project has changed scope and recently was announced that all of a sudden it's now google and some high school class. It sounds like a bunch of Wall Street pandering to me. I don't think the ICE component will be gutted. Ford's core business is Bronco, F Series, Transit and Mustang. And the jury is still out if customers will fully embrace EVs on a wholesale level. Regarding the train station, just a PR move. There talking about putting hotel rooms, condos, and coffee shops there- hardly anything auto related. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Footballfan said: Regarding the train station, just a PR move. There talking about putting hotel rooms, condos, and coffee shops there- hardly anything auto related. It was supposed to be the center of a big EV hub but now it isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
02MustangGT Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said: It was supposed to be the center of a big EV hub but now it isn't. With all due respect, the project was never intended to be “the center of a big EV hub”. https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2020/11/17/ford-plans-mobility-innovation-district.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Yep it's probably going to happen. The new company will probably not be headquartered in Michigan either and the ICE component will probably be bought and gutted by a hedge fund company. Not going to happen. Behind a paywall, but the headline says it all. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2022/02/18/ford-ev-ice-spinoff-no-plans/6844852001/?gnt-cfr=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Would be an interesting choice for sure. It's not certain at this time if they split the ev and ICE products into two separate businesses if they'd both use the ford name. I think they should, but if they decide to give the ev side of the company its own dedicated sub-brand, I say call it Zephyr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The one big flaw with Ford’s separating of BEV business is that EVs will take years to pay for themselves, Ford needs the ICE operations to pay for its darling electric vehicles before it kicks its F Series and SUV cash cows to the curb…. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mustang84isu Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 (edited) Ford having both ICE and EV's gives them a moat to survive economic cycles within the economy. EV stocks are hot right now, but we are at the peak (or past the peak?) of a bull market cycle and heading into a period of higher interest rates which will be turbulent for EV stocks. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, and others have never been tested by a recession or a rising interest rate environment--IMO, pure play EV companies could see some very difficult times in this scenario. Also, does a separate EV business end up diluting the Ford and Lincoln brands? Splitting the company in two splits resources, doubles up management, etc. It's just a way to appease Wall Street and provide a short-term boost, not long-term stability. This is just like Johnson & Johnson which is splitting off its consumer business from its pharmaceutical business, which is a mistake. The stability of the consumer business helps anchor the company during the ups and downs of the pharma business, which is why J&J has long been a favored stock for stable, long-term growth. J&J as two companies is much less desirable, IMO. Ford will be in the same boat. Edited February 21, 2022 by mustang84isu 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 hours ago, jpd80 said: The one big flaw with Ford’s separating of BEV business is that EVs will take years to pay for themselves, Ford needs the ICE operations to pay for its darling electric vehicles before it kicks its F Series and SUV cash cows to the curb…. Instead of a spin off, it could be a separate division within the company. A third division after Ford and Lincoln. Something that dealers would have buy into to participate. More than a sub brand lime Bronco. Sounds to me like Farley doesn't want to mix BEVs with ICE models. Separate sales and service centers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, FordBuyer said: Instead of a spin off, it could be a separate division within the company. A third division after Ford and Lincoln. Something that dealers would have buy into to participate. More than a sub brand lime Bronco. Sounds to me like Farley doesn't want to mix BEVs with ICE models. Separate sales and service centers. Absolutely correct but why does Farley feel the need to discuss this now and who is his actual audience? This is Ford sending a message to Wall Street and the narrative that legacy auto brands have to break from the past, simply evolving into electrics is now seen to be too slow. It also plays well to the belief that ICE production will become littered with stranded assets so it will be interesting to see how many plants are target for closure by the end of the decade. One big concern for me is that Ford is now committing so heavily to a BEV future that it could be getting ahead of itself and what customers actually want. Sure, the buying profile is going to change over the next eight years but I wonder if Ford has completely changed its view on end of decade sales projections to the point that it’s now over estimating BEV sales? Edited February 21, 2022 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 hours ago, jpd80 said: It also plays well to the belief that ICE production will become littered with stranded assets so it will be interesting to see how many plants are target for closure by the end of the decade. IMO I think the plant closure thing is overstated...Tesla has yet to hit the highest production numbers that NUMMI did with an ICE product at the same plant. I know there are changes (like stamping happening onsite), but in the grand scheme of things I don't see 3-4 plants currently in production closing, maybe 1-2 depending on Product mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: IMO I think the plant closure thing is overstated...Tesla has yet to hit the highest production numbers that NUMMI did with an ICE product at the same plant. I know there are changes (like stamping happening onsite), but in the grand scheme of things I don't see 3-4 plants currently in production closing, maybe 1-2 depending on Product mix. You can't go by what the plant was capable of under its former ownership. It's been completely gutted and has an entirely different production system in it now, and Tesla has been very tight lipped about what it's max capacity is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: You can't go by what the plant was capable of under its former ownership. It's been completely gutted and has an entirely different production system in it now, and Tesla has been very tight lipped about what it's max capacity is. I've been around assembly plants (Edison) and the Tesla plant and when I was in the Tesla plant, they where doing a whole bunch of nothing-the line wasn't doing anything and it was in the middle of the day. Not to mention if it was setup as good as some people think it was, they wouldn't have needed tents to build Model 3s LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: they wouldn't have needed tents to build Model 3s That's why you don't build your company's entire product line on one assembly line. But Tesla has to be stubborn and do it their own ridiculous way no matter what. A wise man by the name of Gene Kranz once said (and I'm paraphrasing a bit here) 'I don't care what it was designed to do, I care about what it can do'. In this case Tesla's production system can't even do what it was designed to do. Edited February 22, 2022 by fuzzymoomoo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisgb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 19 hours ago, DeluxeStang said: Would be an interesting choice for sure. It's not certain at this time if they split the ev and ICE products into two separate businesses if they'd both use the ford name. I think they should, but if they decide to give the ev side of the company its own dedicated sub-brand, I say call it Zephyr. I'd call such a sub brand, Mercury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slemke Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 hours ago, FordBuyer said: Instead of a spin off, it could be a separate division within the company. A third division after Ford and Lincoln. Something that dealers would have buy into to participate. More than a sub brand lime Bronco. Sounds to me like Farley doesn't want to mix BEVs with ICE models. Separate sales and service centers. But that wouldn’t bring in the big “green” investors to raise capital needed to develop the vehicles. BEVs are an expensive proposition being pushed by government and activists. There are many unknowns. We don’t know how much demand there is and when it will materialize. We also don’t know how or when the supply chain issues with battery production will be straitened out such that it isn’t a limiting factor. If there isn’t organic demand for BEVs on the scale of current auto sales, there will be many companies folding or consolidating. The best thing that can happen is demand leads the switchover so companies make the change based on customer demand and remain profitable during the transition. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Chrisgb said: I'd call such a sub brand, Mercury Better to name it Jupiter... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slemke Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 hours ago, jpd80 said: Absolutely correct but why does Farley feel the need to discuss this now and who is his actual audience? This is Ford sending a message to Wall Street and the narrative that legacy auto brands have to break from the past, simply evolving into electrics is now seen to be too slow. It also plays well to the belief that ICE production will become littered with stranded assets so it will be interesting to see how many plants are target for closure by the end of the decade. One big concern for me is that Ford is now committing so heavily to a BEV future that it could be getting ahead of itself and what customers actually want. Sure, the buying profile is going to change over the next eight years but I wonder if Ford has completely changed its view on end of decade sales projections to the point that it’s now over estimating BEV sales? I’m guessing large investors….Wall Street as you stated. If Ford can get them interested they can either spin off the electric vehicle group or issue additional stock without dramatically reducing the value of stock currently held by investors. I concur on them getting ahead of themselves. To me, it is no different than the rush to diesel and compact cars in the 2003-2012 timeframe. Lots of money spent to develop them only to be shunned by consumers after fuel prices stabilized. Having more demand than supply isn’t the worst problem to have. Honda made it work in the ‘80s and early ‘90s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 hours ago, silvrsvt said: I've been around assembly plants (Edison) and the Tesla plant and when I was in the Tesla plant, they where doing a whole bunch of nothing-the line wasn't doing anything and it was in the middle of the day. Not to mention if it was setup as good as some people think it was, they wouldn't have needed tents to build Model 3s LOL Last year, Shanghai and Fremont produced over 930,000 Teslas, I’d say that they’re getting their act together. Texas has just come on line and the Germans are holding up the plant in Europe, a second plant is planned for China…. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 hours ago, jpd80 said: Last year, Shanghai and Fremont produced over 930,000 Teslas, I’d say that they’re getting their act together. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2021-full-year-global-tesla-car-sales-worldwide/ Although Tesla does not specify the exact sales and production of different models, it has a production capacity of around 100,000 Model S / Y cars in California, and half a million each for the Model 3 / Y in factories in California and Shanghai, and similar capacity in the new factories in Berlin and Texas. If the Berlin factory starts production in 2022, the flow of Tesla cars to Europe should stabilize. Currently, cars are often delivered in drips and drabs leading to statistical outliers such as the Model 3 being the second most popular car in Germany in September 2021 and then falling off the best-sellers list completely the following month. I was using 2020 info since 2021 was such a shitshow for the Auto industry. So color me impressed. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2021-full-year-global-tesla-car-sales-worldwide/ I was using 2020 info since 2021 was such a shitshow for the Auto industry. So color me impressed. Yes, they definitely hit their stride, seemed to be right about when they switched to using the gigacastings front and rear to eliminate a ton of welding small components (70). Texas is ramping up Y production so should start seeing a lot more on the road. They’re bragging that after 200,000 miles the new teslas retain 90% battery capacity, especially the LFP batteries Edited February 22, 2022 by jpd80 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 48 minutes ago, jpd80 said: They’re bragging that after 200,000 miles the new teslas retain 90% battery capacity, especially the LFP batteries If that's really true that's very impressive 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisgb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 17 hours ago, twintornados said: Better to name it Jupiter... Hmmm... Probably not as "starcrossed" a name as Edsel, but, https://www.startrek.com/article/take-a-ride-in-the-jupiter-8 1950 Jowett Jupiter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 https://www.autoblog.com/2022/02/24/ford-ceo-no-plan-to-spin-off-ev-business-but-change-coming/ Quote DETROIT — The CEO of Ford Motor Co. says the automaker has no plans to spin off its electric vehicle or internal combustion businesses, but is reinventing itself by removing costs and ramping up for large-scale EV and software sales. Ford CEO Jim Farley told the Wolfe Research virtual global auto technology conference Wednesday that the company could hit Tesla-like profit margins by using common electric motors, electronic components and other parts across all sizes of vehicles. But to do that, Ford needs radically different human talent than it now has, Farley said in a surprisingly candid interview with analyst Rod Lache. He also said the company has too many people and too much complexity, and it doesn't have the expertise to transition to battery-electric vehicles. “That's the simple answer. There's waste," he said. More at link above. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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