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Wonder if the 5k Mach E delivery is the start of the long promised volume increase or some type of timing due to previous parts shortage?

 

Maverick sales is STRONG. Impressive!

 

Transit volume stabilized month to month but still down YTD... I wonder if there was production disruption that happened in Q1 leading up to start of E-Transit? Or maybe fleet customers are just not ordering as many this year in anticipating of recession...

 

Edge is up 3 months in a row... ironic. 

 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, bzcat said:

Wonder if the 5k Mach E delivery is the start of the long promised volume increase or some type of timing due to previous parts shortage?

 

Maverick sales is STRONG. Impressive!

 

Transit volume stabilized month to month but still down YTD... I wonder if there was production disruption that happened in Q1 leading up to start of E-Transit? Or maybe fleet customers are just not ordering as many this year in anticipating of recession...

 

Edge is up 3 months in a row... ironic. 

 

No it’s still popular in spite of Ford trying to curtail sales by ending 2WD versions.


Of more concern to Ford is sales of F Series under 50,000 which is of course due to lack of supply

 

Great result fo Mach E showing that demand is much greater than sales are showing 

 

Escape sales reflect chips being diverted to more profitable vehicles, it shows how ford really feels and maybe why Edge has maintained good sales

Edited by jpd80

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Now hearing that chip supply issues will continue well int next year, this is not good…….

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Any reason you are hearing as to why the delay in getting the needed chips? We are going on what 12 to 18 months after coming back up out of shutdowns.

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19 minutes ago, Edgeoffroad04 said:

Any reason you are hearing as to why the delay in getting the needed chips? We are going on what 12 to 18 months after coming back up out of shutdowns.


Because the world is falling apart

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2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


Because the world is falling apart

 

And China is still keeping its Zero COVID cases enforcement in effect. Shanghi was closed down for at least a month or two because of that. 

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20 hours ago, bzcat said:

Wonder if the 5k Mach E delivery is the start of the long promised volume increase or some type of timing due to previous parts shortage?

 

Maverick sales is STRONG. Impressive!

 

Transit volume stabilized month to month but still down YTD... I wonder if there was production disruption that happened in Q1 leading up to start of E-Transit? Or maybe fleet customers are just not ordering as many this year in anticipating of recession...

 

Edge is up 3 months in a row... ironic. 

 

Mach E won’t be able to sustain May’s sales volume as Ford can’t build that many - at least for another year or so. If I remember correctly, production is about 50K/year with half going to the U.S. Maverick sales are very impressive and Ford could probably sell twice as many if they could be built. However, it looks like the sales are coming at Ranger’s expense as Ranger sales have cratered. That has to be a bit concerning for Ford. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Trader 10 said:

However, it looks like the sales are coming at Ranger’s expense as Ranger sales have cratered. That has to be a bit concerning for Ford. 


Or it's intentionally sacrificing Ranger production in favor of Bronco since there's little point in growing Ranger sales in its last year before a new model 

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1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


Or it's intentionally sacrificing Ranger production in favor of Bronco since there's little point in growing Ranger sales in its last year before a new model 

That makes sense especially given Bronco’s higher ATP’s.

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12 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

And China is still keeping its Zero COVID cases enforcement in effect. Shanghi was closed down for at least a month or two because of that. 

That's the crazy part...where does this all end? When and when China does open up global demand for oil will jump and I don't want to predict(and be right) where US gas prices end up.

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10 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

That makes sense especially given Bronco’s higher ATP’s.

Also chips being diverted from Escape for similar reason…

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

Mach E won’t be able to sustain May’s sales volume as Ford can’t build that many - at least for another year or so. If I remember correctly, production is about 50K/year with half going to the U.S. Maverick sales are very impressive and Ford could probably sell twice as many if they could be built. However, it looks like the sales are coming at Ranger’s expense as Ranger sales have cratered. That has to be a bit concerning for Ford. 

I just saw this, Mach E June 1 inventory is 6,000, so yeah it’s possible that Mach E sales will be strong again this month.

 

F Series inventory has also increased for this month now 95,000 and up from 83,000 in May, so hopefully sales will be closer to 60,000 this month.

Edited by jpd80

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On 6/4/2022 at 6:44 AM, Edgeoffroad04 said:

Any reason you are hearing as to why the delay in getting the needed chips? We are going on what 12 to 18 months after coming back up out of shutdowns.

According to articles, during the pandemic, the auto manufacturers reduced orders of the chips. The chips manufacturers turned the productions to other products. Little did they know, the auto industry came back quick and in high demand. But then chips had been moved to other products with no extra available. Understand that chips are high tech item and require billion, billions investment to add manufacturing lines to ramp up production. Who are willing to put down this billions? Plus the US impost higher tax on import from China, the interest to spend more to increase productions will be low. Not to mention the US ourself won't be able to produce more chips for the similar reason.

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And don’t forget shipping delays and a fire at a Japanese factory used by Ford.

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Posted (edited)

Those things were factors in 2021 but it’s obvious that supplies of chips in the last six months are still very limited and will remain so well into  next year. This is something most in the automotive corporate world never saw coming and can do precious little to overcome. It was a huge mistake to assume that they could just stop chip orders and simply restart them  at a later date.That is clearly not understanding that your critical suppliers don’t depend on automotive chip sales and have actually moved on and reconfigured their plants to make other more valuable chips.

Edited by jpd80

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Thanks Remy, you can already see that there’s only about 1,000 heavy trucks last month, most of them will be F650,

 

Later in the month, we should be able to work out F650 sales

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14 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Thanks Remy, you can already see that there’s only about 1,000 heavy trucks last month, most of them will be F650,

 

Later in the month, we should be able to work out F650 sales

Yeah I’ve been a bit behind regarding a few things around here like my Bronco review.  Been super busy lately!  Eventually I’ll get to it!

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2 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Yeah I’ve been a bit behind regarding a few things around here like my Bronco review.  Been super busy lately!  Eventually I’ll get to it!

I’m glad you have a new Bronco, sounds like the waiting line is pretty long now even though sales seem to be moving a bit…

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On 6/6/2022 at 3:42 PM, jpd80 said:

I’m glad you have a new Bronco, sounds like the waiting line is pretty long now even though sales seem to be moving a bit…

 

Depends on what you want-if you order a Base or Big Bend Bronco with a soft top and Ecoboost 4 in it, you'll have it pretty quickly.

 

Just as an example, my Big Bend which was more or less loaded without the Sasquatch package took 8 months to get built from its reorder. 

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Have to remember most auto's use garbage chips based on 10+ year old technology and a lot of them. They were super cheap, slow and energy hogs but made it easy to make vehicles configurable for different options, simpler wiring harnesses as well as made sure if something failed it wasn't a catastrophic failure that left you stranded on the side of the road, but would allow all sorts of gremlins and little problems happen.  Chip industry was moving on to more complex chips and the canceled orders just gave them the push to do that. The fire at a plant made it worse because the question becomes why rebuild a plant that is making something that is 10+ years old when the cost to update it to a modern chip plant that have wider sales uses is almost the same cost as rebuilding it.

The chip industry for years has been telling the Automotive sector they need to get on the ball and update their chips but the limited talent and lack of understanding/desire world finally caught up.

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1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:

Have to remember most auto's use garbage chips based on 10+ year old technology and a lot of them. They were super cheap, slow and energy hogs but made it easy to make vehicles configurable for different options, simpler wiring harnesses as well as made sure if something failed it wasn't a catastrophic failure that left you stranded on the side of the road, but would allow all sorts of gremlins and little problems happen.  Chip industry was moving on to more complex chips and the canceled orders just gave them the push to do that. The fire at a plant made it worse because the question becomes why rebuild a plant that is making something that is 10+ years old when the cost to update it to a modern chip plant that have wider sales uses is almost the same cost as rebuilding it.

The chip industry for years has been telling the Automotive sector they need to get on the ball and update their chips but the limited talent and lack of understanding/desire world finally caught up.

 

Although the technology was limited at the time, this is similar to the Apollo spacecraft that went to the moon using computers with the power of a Texas Instruments calculator!

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Posted (edited)

I’m also imagining that it would be a huge cost  to go back and re-engineer all those vehicle systems for updated chips, especially when the executives are constantly assured that the +10 year old chips will do for say, another 10 years.

 

The longer this drags on and really costs more and more, the more suits are going to understand how badly this was managed/not managed at all. To force change you have to really rub managements nose in it for an incredibly long time until they get it that this is just not working….this constant hope that more chips are just around the corner just encourages belief that we can go back to “normal”, that will depend entirely on new local sources of chip supply ramping up in double quick time, not sure if that’s even possible…
 

In the meantime, Tesla with less chip problems keeps ramping  up production and sales like there’s tomorrow but they don’t seem to be conquesting sales from segment that really affect Ford or GM all that much. This is the ultimate frog in a pot that’s being hidden by the chip shortage, ICE manufacturers don’t really know how many sales they have permanently lost to Tesla until they get back to normal production. Interesting times ahead….

 

The other thing I wonder is if this new restricted chip supply situation  actually ushers in the new era of low inventory, built to customer order production and sales. Sure production is too tight now but add say another 25% to 30% chip supply and things begin to look way better for Ford.

Edited by jpd80

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32 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I’m also imagining that it would be a huge cost  to go back and re-engineer all those vehicle systems for updated chips, especially when the executives are constantly assured that the +10 year old chips will do for say, another 10 years.

 

The longer this drags on and really costs more and more, the more suits are going to understand how badly this was managed/not managed at all. To force change you have to really rub managements nose in it for an incredibly long time until they get it that this is just not working….this constant hope that more chips are just around the corner just encourages belief that we can go back to “normal”, that will depend entirely on new local sources of chip supply ramping up in double quick time, not sure if that’s even possible…
 

In the meantime, Tesla with less chip problems keeps ramping  up production and sales like there’s tomorrow but they don’t seem to be conquesting sales from segment that really affect Ford or GM all that much. This is the ultimate frog in a pot that’s being hidden by the chip shortage, ICE manufacturers don’t really know how many sales they have permanently lost to Tesla until they get back to normal production. Interesting times ahead….

 

The other thing I wonder is if this new restricted chip supply situation  actually ushers in the new era of low inventory, built to customer order production and sales. Sure production is too tight now but add say another 25% to 30% chip supply and things begin to look way better for Ford.


that seems to be the goal.

 

and maybe with the switch to EVs, they’ll go with more modern/more readily available chips vs the old ones

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