Ford expects to lose $3 billion on EVs this year

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, fordmantpw said:

Our next vehicle (that isn't a Super Duty) will definitely be electric.  It fits my wife's driving requirements perfectly, and they are a blast to drive.  Plus, my solar panels mean we get to drive it for free.

After latest hurricane that left much of Florida without power, TV News group interviewed a man in Central Florida who powers his Tesla with solar on roof of house.  If I recall correctly, he mentioned having spent $28,000 on system.  Not necessarily free, though he also powered some or all of his house’s electrical needs (can’t recall details).

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, Rick73 said:

 BEVs may be better in an absolute sense, but in my opinion ICE vehicles today offer greater value and convenience to more buyers, hence why over 10 times as many ICE are sold. 

 

But BEVs aren't also built at the same rate as ICE, which is why they cost more (for now)...so it would be like getting a kobe beef hamburger from Ruth Chris Steakhouse vs a Big Mac.

[Rangers09]

3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

With BEV, the biggest issue nowadays is the inability of automakers, including Ford, to get the products to customers in a timely manner. Motor Trend said this last year, and it still holds true today.

 

 

Order to delivery doesn't only affect BEV's, it is applicable to all models.

 

I'll suggest BEV's biggest issues are low range, long charging times and passenger/driver comfort features, such as heated seats, heated wheel, vibrating seats, heater, etc. further reduce range. Those are the reasons we didn't purchase a BEV, opting for a PHEV.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, Rangers09 said:

Order to delivery doesn't only affect BEV's, it is applicable to all models.

 

You're right Rangers09 that extended OTD continue to bedevil all automakers. But it's with BEV specifically that extremely lopsided supply-demand dynamics are in play. For example, Ford has an order backlog for F-150 Lightning that will take 2-3 years to clear. Similarly at GM, Hummer EV is completely sold out for another couple years.

 

The incredibly strong demand for BEV has taken legacy automakers by surprise. Jim Farley acknowledged this last year when he said the following about the ongoing transition to all-electric vehicles.

It seems to be going much faster than all of us forecasted...I mean it’s gone so much faster than people think. So much faster than the charging experience. So much faster than the purchase price. So much faster than you would have predicted.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

But BEVs aren't also built at the same rate as ICE, which is why they cost more (for now)...

 

Agree BEVs generally cost more today.  And isn't that what matters most to buyers?  If anything, the fact that BEVs will likely become cheaper in a few years is one reason to delay or put off purchase.  If buyers thought BEV prices were going up instead of down, that would be more of an incentive to buy right away.  However, future lower prices is a detriment to selling BEVs today.  This is why deflation can be worse for economy than inflation.  If BEV prices are expected to go down over next few years, not only can you buy cheaper by waiting, but also avoid greater depreciation.  Expected lower BEV prices in near future in a way reduces present BEV demand.

[fordmantpw]

5 hours ago, Rick73 said:

After latest hurricane that left much of Florida without power, TV News group interviewed a man in Central Florida who powers his Tesla with solar on roof of house.  If I recall correctly, he mentioned having spent $28,000 on system.  Not necessarily free, though he also powered some or all of his house’s electrical needs (can’t recall details).

 

Correct, it wasn't free to install, but the electricity from it is now free since it's paid off and I have extra power in the summer.  With a small generator (most solar systems, including mine, must have external power before it will supply anything so that it doesn't back feed the system and kill linemen), I could essentially power my entire house with solar indefinitely through an outage.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Agree BEVs generally cost more today.  And isn't that what matters most to buyers?  If anything, the fact that BEVs will likely become cheaper in a few years is one reason to delay or put off purchase.  If buyers thought BEV prices were going up instead of down, that would be more of an incentive to buy right away.  However, future lower prices is a detriment to selling BEVs today.  This is why deflation can be worse for economy than inflation.  If BEV prices are expected to go down over next few years, not only can you buy cheaper by waiting, but also avoid greater depreciation.  Expected lower BEV prices in near future in a way reduces present BEV demand.

 

Your correct, but there is no hey I'm buying a car in the next 12 months or the next five years with these polls either. There is a demand for them and people want them, but the demand should increase as more models and cheaper ones come along. 

Given the fact that the average car is almost 50K brand new, puts many BEVs models with in the "reasonable" to buy category for people. 

[DeluxeStang]

 

On 3/23/2023 at 7:59 AM, Joe771476 said:

The general public does NOT want EV's!

My folks are the people you're referring to. They used to be in the "I'll never buy a hybrid/ev camp". We have a maverick hybrid now. Their main concern was long term durability, but I actually walked them through all the reasons why hybrids are far more reliable than your average ICE only vehicle. That's especially true with the 2.5 hybrid in the maverick, literally a 300k plus setup.

 

People only fear or oppose most tech when they don't understand it. Some of the concerns over EVs are valid. Things like charging infastructure for instance. But many of the fears I've heard regarding hybrids and EVs come from a place of ignorance. As people become more informed, they'll start to accept EVs and hybrids more. If my parents can be convinced to buy one, pretty much anyone can. 

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by DeluxeStang

[silvrsvt]

33 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

People only fear or oppose most tech when they don't understand it. Some of the concerns over EVs are valid. Things like charging infastructure for instance. But many of the fears I've heard regarding hybrids and EVs come from a place of ignorance. As people become more informed, they'll start to accept EVs and hybrids more. If my parents can be convinced to buy one, pretty much anyone can. 

 

You see that ALL THE TIME ON SOCIAL MEDIA!!!!

I wasn't sold on it either, but the more I looked into it, it makes sense...and getting rides in Tesla S and a 3 Dual motor put any performance concerns to bed very quickly.

 

I'm leaning towards getting an EV as my next vehicle, but I'd like my wife to get one, but the pricing situation with her making the payments isn't what she wants, even though it would save her $$$$ on gas.

[DeluxeStang]

30 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

You see that ALL THE TIME ON SOCIAL MEDIA!!!!

I wasn't sold on it either, but the more I looked into it, it makes sense...and getting rides in Tesla S and a 3 Dual motor put any performance concerns to bed very quickly.

 

I'm leaning towards getting an EV as my next vehicle, but I'd like my wife to get one, but the pricing situation with her making the payments isn't what she wants, even though it would save her $$$$ on gas.

Indeed you do, people just need to research stuff more. If they did, most of their fears would dissipate. Have you thought about getting a slightly cheaper ev for your wife? Something like a Bolt perhaps? 

 

It wouldn't be super luxurious, or fast. But it could be an affordable, low stakes way to see if the ev life is for you before commiting to a more expensive vehicle. 

[silvrsvt]

30 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

Indeed you do, people just need to research stuff more. If they did, most of their fears would dissipate. Have you thought about getting a slightly cheaper ev for your wife? Something like a Bolt perhaps? 

 

Hahaha I wouldn't allow her to get a Bolt..she wants a Bronco Sport 

[Rangers09]

6 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

You're right Rangers09 that extended OTD continue to bedevil all automakers. But it's with BEV specifically that extremely lopsided supply-demand dynamics are in play. For example, Ford has an order backlog for F-150 Lightning that will take 2-3 years to clear. Similarly at GM, Hummer EV is completely sold out for another couple years.

 

The incredibly strong demand for BEV has taken legacy automakers by surprise. Jim Farley acknowledged this last year when he said the following about the ongoing transition to all-electric vehicles.

 

 

 

Again, the order backlogs are not comparing apples to apples. While I don't follow BEV orders, I haven't read Ford has closed the order banks on the F-150 Lightning. With Super Dutys, when orders reached about 350,000 last year, they closed the order bank about May and it remained closed for over 6 months. Some are waiting almost 2-years for Super Dutys, Bronco's, etc. so comparable to BEV's.

 

I was fortunate in that my F-450 only took 9-months, some that ordered about the same time as me are still waiting. Our neighbours are waiting 18-months for a Bronco, and still waiting.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Rangers09 said:

 

Again, the order backlogs are not comparing apples to apples. While I don't follow BEV orders, I haven't read Ford has closed the order banks on the F-150 Lightning. With Super Dutys, when orders reached about 350,000 last year, they closed the order bank about May and it remained closed for over 6 months. Some are waiting almost 2-years for Super Dutys, Bronco's, etc. so comparable to BEV's.

 

I was fortunate in that my F-450 only took 9-months, some that ordered about the same time as me are still waiting. Our neighbours are waiting 18-months for a Bronco, and still waiting.

 

Using what has happened since March 2020 for anything automotive related (or anything manufacturing related) isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison with what happened prior to that either. Everything has been a shitshow since March 2020. 

 

The Lighting was originally done by reservation and apparently you still need to have an invite to place an order

https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/electric-vehicles/f-150-lightning/f-150-lightning-reservation-closure-order-information/#:~:text=How will I know if,receive an invite from Ford.

Someone I work with got a Lightning Pro model at work in Cactus Grey...not sure how they did that one since he works full time for the government 

[paintguy]

6 hours ago, fordmantpw said:

 

Correct, it wasn't free to install, but the electricity from it is now free since it's paid off and I have extra power in the summer.  With a small generator (most solar systems, including mine, must have external power before it will supply anything so that it doesn't back feed the system and kill linemen), I could essentially power my entire house with solar indefinitely through an outage.

If you paid $28,000 up front, the value per month over a 20 year life is about $180/month with a 5% rate of return. It is a cost. 

[fordmantpw]

On 3/25/2023 at 8:44 PM, paintguy said:

If you paid $28,000 up front, the value per month over a 20 year life is about $180/month with a 5% rate of return. It is a cost. 

 

Yes, I know, I get that, but my electric bill is basically nil.  PS, I didn't pay $28k either.

[akirby]

On 3/25/2023 at 9:44 PM, paintguy said:

If you paid $28,000 up front, the value per month over a 20 year life is about $180/month with a 5% rate of return. It is a cost. 

But it was done to power the house and eliminate or reduce the electric bill which will pay for itself in a few years, so the power to charge the vehicle is free.

[fuzzymoomoo]

On 3/25/2023 at 3:10 PM, fordmantpw said:

 

Correct, it wasn't free to install, but the electricity from it is now free since it's paid off and I have extra power in the summer.  With a small generator (most solar systems, including mine, must have external power before it will supply anything so that it doesn't back feed the system and kill linemen), I could essentially power my entire house with solar indefinitely through an outage.

God that would be nice

[LSchicago]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

But it was done to power the house and eliminate or reduce the electric bill which will pay for itself in a few years, so the power to charge the vehicle is free.

You must have HUGE electric bills. 3 years of power at my house is about $4,500, with 3 of us there. 3 years of power at my business is about $10,000. 

[Rick73]

Home versus car energy perspective:
 

In my case, electric power (energy) fluctuates between +/- $300/mon in Summer down to +/- $100/mon in Winter.  During Hurricane season when it’s more likely for us to experience extended outages, the majority of energy consumed is due to air conditioning.

 

During summer months, electricity consumption averages around 50 kWh daily.  That much from solar would be cost prohibitive for us if it were a fully-functional stand-alone system.  Not only do I not have enough space for at least 15 kW of solar panels in direct sun, but the amount of battery storage would be too costly unless it was part of a vehicle; 100 kWh of battery capacity would be great.

 

When we lose power we assume air conditioning is not an option, we cook outside, don’t wash clothes, etc. which reduces energy to a small fraction of normal.  Mostly we try to keep refrigerator running which only consumes about 2 kWh daily.

 

Anyway, I’ve gone through estimates before and realized that our normal electric consumption is far greater than the amount we would need to charge an electric car for local trips.  I expect we would add about $35/month, which is small part of our summer electric usage. 

[paintguy]

9 hours ago, akirby said:

But it was done to power the house and eliminate or reduce the electric bill which will pay for itself in a few years, so the power to charge the vehicle is free.

Agree. But there is opportunity cost. Retired now, but would put an investment like that through Ford's project system to see if it "TARs" out. 

[blwnsmoke]

On 3/25/2023 at 3:10 PM, fordmantpw said:

 

Correct, it wasn't free to install, but the electricity from it is now free since it's paid off and I have extra power in the summer.  With a small generator (most solar systems, including mine, must have external power before it will supply anything so that it doesn't back feed the system and kill linemen), I could essentially power my entire house with solar indefinitely through an outage.

Your electric is not free even with it paid off. 

 

One way or another it's costing you money.  I get a check every year from the excess of my solar.  Then we also get the REC credits.  No matter what, charging an EV will reduce your check that you get from the excess.  No matter what, it's costing money out of your pocket because your refund isn't as big as it would be if you didn't charge the EV.

 

And if you have extra every year, then you over paid for your solar because you didn't need as many panels.  A properly designed solar system is supposed to break even every 12 month cycle.

[rmc523]

20 hours ago, blwnsmoke said:

Your electric is not free even with it paid off. 

 

One way or another it's costing you money.  I get a check every year from the excess of my solar.  Then we also get the REC credits.  No matter what, charging an EV will reduce your check that you get from the excess.  No matter what, it's costing money out of your pocket because your refund isn't as big as it would be if you didn't charge the EV.

 

And if you have extra every year, then you over paid for your solar because you didn't need as many panels.  A properly designed solar system is supposed to break even every 12 month cycle.

 

Huh?  Isn't it once you pay for it/pay it off, you have it and anything beyond that goes into your pocket?

[fordmantpw]

5 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Huh?  Isn't it once you pay for it/pay it off, you have it and anything beyond that goes into your pocket?

 

You are mostly correct.  There is a net metering contract that says if you over-produce, the energy company will buy it from you at a certain rate that is roughly the same as their wholesale cost (my sell-back rate I think is $0.025/kWh where my cost is $0.085/kWh).  So, if you are using some of that over-production, then it's costing you instead of getting that money back.

 

Mine nearly breaks even on a yearly basis (I have to pay a bit in the winter since I don't produce enough), but my net metering contract is monthly.  It can be complex, and each utility company/co-op can be different.

 

My point in saying it was free is that the net metering return that I get on the few months that I overproduce is minimal (it's 1/4 of what I pay per kWh) compared to the cost of gas.  Technically, it isn't free, but it's close enough for my calculations when compared to buying tanks of gas.

[SoonerLS]

On 3/23/2023 at 10:03 AM, akirby said:

Sales and reservations disagree.

That's such a small percentage of the population that it's hardly useful for extrapolating what the general public wants, especially when the poll provided in this thread shows that two thirds of respondents won't consider buying a BEV.   

[akirby]

5 hours ago, SoonerLS said:

That's such a small percentage of the population that it's hardly useful for extrapolating what the general public wants, especially when the poll provided in this thread shows that two thirds of respondents won't consider buying a BEV.   

Nobody said the majority of buyers wanted EVs.  But there is clearly a large percentage of buyers that WANT EVs which does not support the claim that the general public doesn’t want them at all.