ice-capades Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) Don't Crash U.S. Auto Market by Forcing Us to Buy EVs - Commentary Las Vegas Review-Journal https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/commentary-dont-crash-u-s-auto-market-by-forcing-us-to-buy-evs-2871726/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=latest&utm_source=opinion&utm_term=COMMENTARY%3A Don’t crash U.S. auto market by forcing us to buy EVs Las Vegas Review-Journal_2023-07-14_Don't Crash U.S. Auto Market by Forcing Us to Buy EVs.pdf Edited July 14, 2023 by ice-capades Additional Content 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Peter Roff is former U.S. News and World Report contributing editor and UPI senior political writer now affiliated with several D.C.-based public policy organizations Hmmmm…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 40 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Peter Roff is former U.S. News and World Report contributing editor and UPI senior political writer now affiliated with several D.C.-based public policy organizations Hmmmm…. Interesting. There's certainly no question that the BEV subject has a public policy and/or "political" element to it. And the BEV market to date has been focused on the high-end market. We're being told that it's a cost issue and that the next generation BEVs will be profitable as costs decline but those next generation BEVs are still several years in the future. Until then, BEVs will continue to be unaffordable for the average consumer. Introducing a BEV vehicle at a $40,000 entry price is certainly attractive, but when that price is raised to $60,000 and production availability reduced for that model, it's no wonder why there's less interest from potential customers. The other issue is the $7,500 tax credit issue. I need to look into the tax credit issue further to understand the requirements in order to fully benefit from the tax credit incentive. I'm excluding consideration of any additional incentives in certain states as that's a different subject. In particular, I'm expecting that the customers actually purchasing a high-end BEV are those least needing the $7,500 tax credit but are also those most qualified to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit. I'm basing this post on retail BEV purchases vs. lease transactions where the incentive benefits the lessor and reduces the lease payment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.I. Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 This is true. The change to EVs must be gradual. I see how Ford at Europe is changing their line up to all EV by 2030. That means no new single car cheaper than 40000€. That will be a debacle for Ford. My new 2023 Mercedes-Benz CLA cost me 42000€. Ford will crash in Europe by the end of the decade if continues forcing customers to adopt EV at high prices 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, .I. said: This is true. The change to EVs must be gradual. I see how Ford at Europe is changing their line up to all EV by 2030. That means no new single car cheaper than 40000€. That will be a debacle for Ford. My new 2023 Mercedes-Benz CLA cost me 42000€. Ford will crash in Europe by the end of the decade if continues forcing customers to adopt EV at high prices The EU government is forcing that issue. Plus check this out- https://www.statista.com/statistics/425095/eu-car-sales-average-prices-in-by-country/ Seems like paying 40K euros for a car would fit into the inflationary trends we've seen over the past few years also with that cart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Roff makes some excellent points. The main issue for me is that BEVs do not exist in a vacuum, so promoting or mandating them comes at a real cost. Incentives, as an example, are funded by tax payers, and that money affects other programs, or services, or adds to inflation, etc. As they say, there is no free lunch. And it doesn’t stop with $7,500 incentives. Additional funds will be required to generate electricity and charge vehicles. Unintended consequences like drivers keeping old ICE vehicles longer is a reality. It is for me. And if BEV vehicles are larger and heavier, it will also promote keeping older larger ICE instead of the smaller ones which are more fuel efficient. When auto makers have to fund BEV from ICE profits, it will likely make ICE more expensive. When an empty ICE cargo van can easily exceed over $60K, it’s difficult for me to not partly blame BEVs for much of price increase. In my opinion manufacturers are being forced to become greedy with ICE in order to fund BEV investments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Implying bevs will cost $60k after mass adoption is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, akirby said: Implying bevs will cost $60k after mass adoption is stupid. Agreed, maybe an average transaction price in the 50s or 60s. But far more affordable EVs are already on the market. I wouldn't be surprised if Ford is working on a sub 30k ev as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said: Agreed, maybe an average transaction price in the 50s or 60s. But far more affordable EVs are already on the market. I wouldn't be surprised if Ford is working on a sub 30k ev as we speak. I think anything sub 30k right now is a real stretch...remains to be seen, but Ford is apparently losing their backsides on the Mach E right now and that car starts at 48k ish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 21 minutes ago, Rick73 said: Roff makes some excellent points. The main issue for me is that BEVs do not exist in a vacuum, so promoting or mandating them comes at a real cost. Incentives, as an example, are funded by tax payers, and that money affects other programs, or services, or adds to inflation, etc. As they say, there is no free lunch. And it doesn’t stop with $7,500 incentives. Additional funds will be required to generate electricity and charge vehicles. Unintended consequences like drivers keeping old ICE vehicles longer is a reality. It is for me. And if BEV vehicles are larger and heavier, it will also promote keeping older larger ICE instead of the smaller ones which are more fuel efficient. When auto makers have to fund BEV from ICE profits, it will likely make ICE more expensive. When an empty ICE cargo van can easily exceed over $60K, it’s difficult for me to not partly blame BEVs for much of price increase. In my opinion manufacturers are being forced to become greedy with ICE in order to fund BEV investments. As I've said many times ...at a measured pace. but with the regime we have in Washington, it is an issue that draws our attention from everything else that is "fugged up". Everytime you read an article about the benefits of electrification, does it ever mention the obstacles we face to do this at such an accelerated pace? Be it raw material, be it power generation, be it disposal of batteries at end of life etc. John Kerry is off to China again..but he has the balls to say he will not push China on their very distant compliance dates-while they crank out new coal fired power plants and we close ours.. As for Rick's last point that I "emboldened", Farley makes no bones about it...ICE is paying for the EV push..be it in inflated ICE pricing or decontented ICE's for the same price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 By the way, a lot of news this past week about building EV inventories. Also I saw some stats about a survey that showed like under 20% of buyers would be interested in buying an EV..even with the glowing tales of their performance, as well as the good they are doing to solve the climate crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-dubz Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) 45 minutes ago, akirby said: Implying bevs will cost $60k after mass adoption is stupid. You could say the same thing for f150, but here we are with almost $100k trucks on lots. Edited July 14, 2023 by T-dubz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-dubz Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Wouldn’t it be better to get rid of incentives all together? Without incentives, wouldn’t automakers be forced to come up with more affordable options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, T-dubz said: Wouldn’t it be better to get rid of incentives all together? Without incentives, wouldn’t automakers be forced to come up with more affordable options? Not exactly.... The way the Government incentives are supposed to work is to help ease the transition of going from ICE to EV. As for pricing-the reason you see high prices for EVs is a lack of battery building infrastructure (being worked on now) and it being something new. Manufactures are going to focus on high end products like GM is doing with the Hummer that can demand a lot of money and get a lot of press-both good and bad, to draw attention to it. As for what is going on with Ford-the pricing issue boils down to bad timing with COVID and the spike in pricing for raw materials when it comes to the Lightning. From what I understand, the US is currently in one of the biggest, if not the biggest periods of building new factories in US History, due to reshoring manufacturing after what has happened with COVID and the generally worsing relationship with China. That is going to take a few years to shake out (and more price increases/inflation) till it gets settled down. Once the battery capacity issue is taken care of, prices should be able to drop down or at least stay the same (being cheaper due to inflationary actions) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Not exactly.... The way the Government incentives are supposed to work is to help ease the transition of going from ICE to EV. As for pricing-the reason you see high prices for EVs is a lack of battery building infrastructure (being worked on now) and it being something new. Manufactures are going to focus on high end products like GM is doing with the Hummer that can demand a lot of money and get a lot of press-both good and bad, to draw attention to it. As for what is going on with Ford-the pricing issue boils down to bad timing with COVID and the spike in pricing for raw materials when it comes to the Lightning. From what I understand, the US is currently in one of the biggest, if not the biggest periods of building new factories in US History, due to reshoring manufacturing after what has happened with COVID and the generally worsing relationship with China. That is going to take a few years to shake out (and more price increases/inflation) till it gets settled down. Once the battery capacity issue is taken care of, prices should be able to drop down or at least stay the same (being cheaper due to inflationary actions) another factor one shouldnt forget is CAFE....Manufacturers get fined rather large amounts if their ratings arent cutting the Mustard...so the EVs ( like or loathe ) help significantly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-dubz Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 This isn’t mentioned in the article, but something I am curious about is what happens to the price of electricity when EV adoption rates increase? Higher demand equals higher price right? If you own an EV, you will see your electricity bill increase because you are now using electricity instead of gas. You will also see your bill increase due to the price per kWh going up. This means that even people who don’t have an EV will be paying higher electricity prices. If you have an EV, maybe the higher electricity prices will still be cheaper than paying for gas, but it seems that lower income people will be negatively affected. If they can’t afford an EV, then they are stuck paying for both gas, and higher electricity prices for their home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, T-dubz said: You could say the same thing for f150, but here we are with almost $100k trucks on lots. Totally different. If BEVs stay at $60K there won’t be mass adoption. The only way to get to a mostly BEV market is to cover the lower price points in the $20ks. That probably requires at least one new generation of batteries in addition to higher volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, akirby said: Totally different. If BEVs stay at $60K there won’t be mass adoption. The only way to get to a mostly BEV market is to cover the lower price points in the $20ks. That probably requires at least one new generation of batteries in addition to higher volume. not to mention what would be a pittance in profitability...IF that price point is even possible...I dont see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said: Also I saw some stats about a survey that showed like under 20% of buyers would be interested in buying an EV. Interesting. J.D. Power 2023 U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration (EVC) Study whose results were released a month ago indicated that "the percentage of shoppers who say they are “overall likely” to consider purchasing an EV increases to 61% from 59% in 2022". Certain groups had even higher levels of being "overall likely" to consider an EV, for example Californians at 73% and Generation Y at 72%. 2023 U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration (EVC) Study | J.D. Power (jdpower.com) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-dubz Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, akirby said: Totally different. If BEVs stay at $60K there won’t be mass adoption. The only way to get to a mostly BEV market is to cover the lower price points in the $20ks. That probably requires at least one new generation of batteries in addition to higher volume. I completely agree with you. I used the f150 as an example because it’s the best selling vehicle in America, so it should give you a good idea what people are willing to pay. The average transaction price for ford was almost 54k in 2022. I have to assume that it was much higher for the f150. So ford knows people are willing to shell out tons of money for their vehicles. There isn’t really an incentive for them to try to go lower in price. the only way that I can see prices being that low is if ford starts importing from China. Chevy and Buick are doing that now with their small SUVs that start around 23 and top out around 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 47 minutes ago, T-dubz said: I completely agree with you. I used the f150 as an example because it’s the best selling vehicle in America, so it should give you a good idea what people are willing to pay. The average transaction price for ford was almost 54k in 2022. I have to assume that it was much higher for the f150. So ford knows people are willing to shell out tons of money for their vehicles. There isn’t really an incentive for them to try to go lower in price. the only way that I can see prices being that low is if ford starts importing from China. Chevy and Buick are doing that now with their small SUVs that start around 23 and top out around 28. I’m not talking about Ford I’m talking about the entire market. A large portion of that market is sub $30k vehicles. Lots of buyers can’t afford anything higher than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, T-dubz said: This isn’t mentioned in the article, but something I am curious about is what happens to the price of electricity when EV adoption rates increase? Higher demand equals higher price right? If you own an EV, you will see your electricity bill increase because you are now using electricity instead of gas. You will also see your bill increase due to the price per kWh going up. This means that even people who don’t have an EV will be paying higher electricity prices. If you have an EV, maybe the higher electricity prices will still be cheaper than paying for gas, but it seems that lower income people will be negatively affected. If they can’t afford an EV, then they are stuck paying for both gas, and higher electricity prices for their home. and given rolling blackouts...whose to say there wont be times youll be stranded an unable to charge your form of transportation...imagine not being able to get to work, or adress amedical emergency and go to a hospital....or , if someone decides to flick a switch to cut your power because your property taxes arent current...or your power bill is late...or...or or....all about control... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) FWIW regarding pricing discussions, I have an F-150 rental right now (they broke my windshield doing the recall on my Bronco), and it’s an XL model with the STX package and some options…..it’s $47k. For a base trim… granted it’s a far cry from older base trucks but still Edited July 14, 2023 by rmc523 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 14 hours ago, Deanh said: and given rolling blackouts...whose to say there wont be times youll be stranded an unable to charge your form of transportation...imagine not being able to get to work, or adress amedical emergency and go to a hospital....or , if someone decides to flick a switch to cut your power because your property taxes arent current...or your power bill is late...or...or or....all about control... How is this any different then a ICE powered vehicle if there is no power for the pumps? Oh I can pour gas-that might be two or three years old and bad too. Come on people. You don’t need to charge every night just like you don’t have to keep the tank in your ICE full all the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 12 hours ago, rmc523 said: FWIW regarding pricing discussions, I have an F-150 rental right now (they broke my windshield doing the recall on my Bronco), and it’s an XL model with the STX package and some options…..it’s $47k. For a base trim… granted it’s a far cry from older base trucks but still Which recall was that? I remember something with the windshield but mine just missed it I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts