Ford CEO: Vertical Integration Will Increase with Move to EVs

[DeluxeStang]

45 minutes ago, matt6 said:

Speaking of, is the aforementioned cancelled Aviator EV the same as the cancelled Rivian-based vehicle, or were they different projects? I think I recall someone stating the Rivian-Lincoln project was one of the most striking SUVs ever and I find it disappointing if a design like that was abandoned for a quirky futuristic one. However, if the current project is comparable to something like the DBX, that is promising.

The Lincoln three row supposedly takes some design cues from the Continental, that's what the Rivian EV was called apparently. That sounds pretty promising. 

[DeluxeStang]

6 hours ago, akirby said:

The only way such a polarizing design sells well is if it ends up being super cheap due to smaller batteries.  But it needs to be really cheap compared to ICE seven seater SUVs and minivans.

If it's sub 40k it'll be a game changer. If it's substantially more expensive than that, it doesn't stand a chance. It'll probably be 50-60k starting is my guess. That puts it right in the sights of Kias new three row EV, which they nailed the execution of. Ford keeps saying how their EVs will be cheaper with these new dedicated platforms. We'll see if it's by a noticable margin or not with time. 

[DeluxeStang]

3 hours ago, Willwll313wll said:

 

I'd love to see what youre working on!

Here you go my friend. I have to preface that this was rendered feeding a 3D into an AI program, so it did some weird things. The surfacing and detailing is pretty off compared to the actual model, but the overall shape and proportions are pretty close to the real thing. Basically imagine this shape with a more sculpted and vented hood, sportier front graphics, and less cuts down the body side. It's a quirky design, would definitely polarized people if it was an actual truck, but it's had some fans thus far due to how different it is. 

[Gurgeh]

22 hours ago, ExplorerDude said:

I’ve heard “Edison” floated and no not because it’s Team Edison’s latest project.

What, was "Poindexter" taken?

[Rick73]

23 hours ago, ExplorerDude said:

I believe Farley wants to go after Tesla buyers with a 7-seater EV which Tesla doesn’t have. Oakville is projected to build / sell 200,000 a year. I assume Oakville is building these for global consumption as this will be the only place these are built.

Doesn’t Tesla offer a 7-seat option for both the Model X and Y?  The X was very expensive for most families until recently after they reduced price (though still expensive), but the Y is their best seller overall and offers a small folding seat option suitable for children.

 

I would love to know what percent of Model Y are purchased with 3rd seat.  I would “guess” it is not that many but could be completely wrong.

[silvrsvt]

13 hours ago, T-dubz said:

I don’t remember exactly, but I thought ford’s original estimate was something like 150-200k  a year for the ford and Lincoln combined. Lincoln’s sales will be minimal so that means ford is expecting most of those sales coming from the ford. Besides the f150 and explorer, ford doesn’t really have a vehicle that currently sells in the 150-170k/yr range. For reference, mach e is at 28k at the end of the 3rd quarter this year. Explorer is at 138k (probably finish around 170k) and it’s one of the best sellers in the segment. I’m not sure how ford thinks this will basically do the same volume as explorer

 

Is there a link or any other info for the expected sales or maybe they are talking about total plant capacity? At one point they where talking like 4-5 different EV products at Oakville, so I think at this point in time there is no good baseline rumor to even venture a guess at what they'll actually do. 

[Rick73]

15 hours ago, T-dubz said:

That’s what I’m saying. IMO this is an experiment and a bad one at that. It’s going to sell in low volume regardless of how good it is as a ev based on its possible polarizing looks. Even with the mustang name and a more traditional look, the mach e isn’t selling well. That doesn’t bode well for this crazy shaped vehicle. I think it’d be lucky to even meet the mach e’s sales figures, which is much lower then the ancient edge that OAC is currently making.

 

if aero design is what people wanted, why are all the manufacturers coming out with large ev trucks and SUVs that look like bricks? Those are what people want and will pay a lot of money for so that is what the manufacturers and building. 
 

 

Most new brick-like trucks require over 200 kWh battery capacity, which makes them expensive, heavy, and not very energy efficient.  I’m only aware of the GM Hummer making it to market and believe sales were dismal.  I think sometimes people believe an item will perform well based on marketing claims, but when they live with it in the real world it’s not as appealing.  Even if you have money to burn, the Hummer weight is so high it leaves little payload, range on highway at 70 MPH isn’t spectacular, and recharging a + 200 kWh battery can take a long time.

 

Newer trucks like Silverado will get better than Hummer, but how many buyers will it actually attract?  GM reportedly pushed back schedule to late 2025 — not sure why.  US manufacturers make much of their profit from trucks so it’s understandable they are trying to make something work.

 

In my opinion because SUVs do not have same payload and towing demands of pickups, aerodynamics is much more important.  It affects cost, driving range, and how long it takes to recharge while on a road trip.

 

[silvrsvt]

10 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Most new brick-like trucks require over 200 kWh battery capacity, which makes them expensive, heavy, and not very energy efficient.  I’m only aware of the GM Hummer making it to market and believe sales were dismal.  I think sometimes people believe an item will perform well based on marketing claims, but when they live with it in the real world it’s not as appealing.  Even if you have money to burn, the Hummer weight is so high it leaves little payload, range on highway at 70 MPH isn’t spectacular, and recharging a + 200 kWh battery can take a long time.

 

Newer trucks like Silverado will get better than Hummer, but how many buyers will it actually attract?  GM reportedly pushed back schedule to late 2025 — not sure why.  US manufacturers make much of their profit from trucks so it’s understandable they are trying to make something work.

 

Are you sure the Silverado will actually do better? I don't see a huge improvement.

 

As for its delay-slowing economy and high interest rates are the two biggest culprits at the moment. I don't see things getting better between now and the election economy wise. 

[Rick73]

22 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Are you sure the Silverado will actually do better? I don't see a huge improvement.

 

As for its delay-slowing economy and high interest rates are the two biggest culprits at the moment. I don't see things getting better between now and the election economy wise. 

How can Silverado be worse than Hummer pickup?  That’s nearly impossible if they tried.  The article I read about Silverado delay mostly blamed GM’s poor profitability for the quarter, but I’m not sure I believe it 100%.  GM may be tapping the brakes on various EVs for reasons they are not disclosing.

[silvrsvt]

8 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

How can Silverado be worse than Hummer pickup?  That’s nearly impossible if they tried.  

 

Didn't say worse-I don't see an measurable improvement since they are almost identical (I haven't looked into exact specs either) to one another. 

[Rick73]

P.S. — If for no other reason, Silverado has longer range with similar battery than Hummer, and higher payload.

[Willwll313wll]

8 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Here you go my friend. I have to preface that this was rendered feeding a 3D into an AI program, so it did some weird things. The surfacing and detailing is pretty off compared to the actual model, but the overall shape and proportions are pretty close to the real thing. Basically imagine this shape with a more sculpted and vented hood, sportier front graphics, and less cuts down the body side. It's a quirky design, would definitely polarized people if it was an actual truck, but it's had some fans thus far due to how different it is. 

 

That's pretty interesting! I like where it's going! I can see it something along these lines actually working really well commercially despite being polarizing. 

[pffan1990]

9 hours ago, matt6 said:

Speaking of, is the aforementioned cancelled Aviator EV the same as the cancelled Rivian-based vehicle, or were they different projects? I think I recall someone stating the Rivian-Lincoln project was one of the most striking SUVs ever and I find it disappointing if a design like that was abandoned for a quirky futuristic one. However, if the current project is comparable to something like the DBX, that is promising.

 

While the Lincoln EV version of the boxy Explorer EV was cancelled (or possibly delayed), it's possible that the Aviator name will be used for the upcoming aero Lincoln EV. That's why I think both the Ford and Lincoln aero EVs need new names and resurrect the cancelled boxy duo with Explorer and Aviator names on them. There was a Rivian-based EV that Lincoln was working on with its own tophat which would have been the Continental EV. However, that project was abandoned. As what DeluxeStang said, the aero Lincoln EV is said to have styling cues of this Rivian-based Continental EV. Hopefully we'll find out soon. The Los Angeles Auto Show, that's going to happen this week, would have been a good opportunity to at least show a concept or two of the EVs for Ford to get public feedback.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Most new brick-like trucks require over 200 kWh battery capacity, which makes them expensive, heavy, and not very energy efficient.

 

Truck buyers don’t care that they’re slightly less efficient just like they don’t care if they get slightly worse mpg than other smaller vehicles.

[T-dubz]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Is there a link or any other info for the expected sales or maybe they are talking about total plant capacity? At one point they where talking like 4-5 different EV products at Oakville, so I think at this point in time there is no good baseline rumor to even venture a guess at what they'll actually do. 

I tracked down where I heard that number from and it was a comment in the UAW thread where OACjay mentioned the 200k figure for the Lincoln and ford. Not sure where he heard it from

[silvrsvt]

23 minutes ago, T-dubz said:

I tracked down where I heard that number from and it was a comment in the UAW thread where OACjay mentioned the 200k figure for the Lincoln and ford. Not sure where he heard it from

 

Yeah I think that number is a bit of a pie in the sky...

 

Ford sold roughly 65K Mach Es between Europe and the USA last year. 

[Rick73]

52 minutes ago, akirby said:

Truck buyers don’t care that they’re slightly less efficient just like they don’t care if they get slightly worse mpg than other smaller vehicles.

Hummers are not slightly less efficient, it’s a huge difference, and I expect the cumulative effect partly explains dismal sales..  There’s a reason they became the butt of so many jokes.  Below is EPA data compared to Silverado, and Hummer is no better if compared to Lightning.  Also note that in real-world highway driving, highway EPA rating is even worse, particularly for Hummer.

 

Clearly you don’t view “efficiency” in the same context as I do.  You seem to focus mostly on costs, as if an owner has enough money they won’t care, but I view a broader definition.  An inefficient Hummer will have to stop to recharge more often, and when they do, it will take that much longer, etc.  Owner can be a billionaire and still be stuck waiting to charge.

 

[T-dubz]

9 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

If it's sub 40k it'll be a game changer. If it's substantially more expensive than that, it doesn't stand a chance. It'll probably be 50-60k starting is my guess. That puts it right in the sights of Kias new three row EV, which they nailed the execution of. Ford keeps saying how their EVs will be cheaper with these new dedicated platforms. We'll see if it's by a noticable margin or not with time. 

I’d say sub $40k is a pipe dream. There’s mavericks and escapes that cost more than that. $50-60k like you suggest seems more reasonable. Ford wants to make a profit on these evs. They are unprofitable now. Even a substantial savings from smaller/cheaper batteries, cheaper manufacturing process, and economies of scale might not be enough to allow ford to pass savings on to customers. It might just mean the vehicles will now be making a profit instead of losing money at the same price. 

[ice-capades]

20 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Yeah I think that number is a bit of a pie in the sky...

 

Ford sold roughly 65K Mach Es between Europe and the USA last year. 

 

The first couple of years total Mach-E production was set at 50,000 vehicles with 25,000 produced for sale in North America and the other 25,000 produced for export to Europe. There were supply chain issues which affected production as well as the ability to meet the initial demand from the "early adopters". Earlier this year changes were made at the plant to increase production but, unfortunately, the increased production capacity came at a time when the "early adopter" demand had been satisfied and general demand for EV vehicles declined for a variety of reasons. 

[akirby]

28 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Hummers are not slightly less efficient, it’s a huge difference, and I expect the cumulative effect partly explains dismal sales..  There’s a reason they became the butt of so many jokes.  Below is EPA data compared to Silverado, and Hummer is no better if compared to Lightning.  Also note that in real-world highway driving, highway EPA rating is even worse, particularly for Hummer.

 

Clearly you don’t view “efficiency” in the same context as I do.  You seem to focus mostly on costs, as if an owner has enough money they won’t care, but I view a broader definition.  An inefficient Hummer will have to stop to recharge more often, and when they do, it will take that much longer, etc.  Owner can be a billionaire and still be stuck waiting to charge.

 

 

The difference between the hummer and Silverado is 10 kWh/100 miles.  In GA that’s $1.50 or less than $5 per 300 mile charge.  On a gas vehicle that’s a difference of less than 2 gallons of gas per fillup.  Nobody buying a $60k - $100k vehicle cares about $5/week.

 

What they care about is range and they only care about charge time if they’re on a long road trip and not charging at home.

 

Your obsession with efficiency doesn’t translate to the average buyer.

[ice-capades]

16 minutes ago, T-dubz said:

I’d say sub $40k is a pipe dream. There’s mavericks and escapes that cost more than that. $50-60k like you suggest seems more reasonable. Ford wants to make a profit on these evs. They are unprofitable now. Even a substantial savings from smaller/cheaper batteries, cheaper manufacturing process, and economies of scale might not be enough to allow ford to pass savings on to customers. It might just mean the vehicles will now be making a profit instead of losing money at the same price. 

 

Ford can talk about its profit objectives all it wants but if customers can't afford to buy or lease their vehicles due to the substantially increased prices and all the economic factors in play (prices, interest prices, cost of living increases, etc.) any discussion of profits is immaterial. The matter is hardly exclusive to Ford and applies to all the manufacturers dealing with the long-term transition to EV vehicles. The other factor affecting the overall market is the sales practices at many dealerships, particularly including the practice of adding large ADM's to the vehicle sales prices. 

[Oac98]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Is there a link or any other info for the expected sales or maybe they are talking about total plant capacity? At one point they where talking like 4-5 different EV products at Oakville, so I think at this point in time there is no good baseline rumor to even venture a guess at what they'll actually do. 

The projection is or was 200,000 for let’s just call them explorer aviator EV FOR NOW. At 2020 contract they said 5 vehicles now it’s 2 with a potential 3rd product down the road according to union during online ratification vote.

[Oac98]

59 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Yeah I think that number is a bit of a pie in the sky...

 

Ford sold roughly 65K Mach Es between Europe and the USA last year. 

I seen the projection on automotive news Canada concerning Oakville. As for Mach E the projection also increased to 200000 plus units but that’s not happening right now. We all know that the OAC future products have been bounced around several facilities prior to landing at OAC. Cuatitlan Assembly was supposed to build Mach E along side these two GE2 7 seaters as we’ve discussed in this group many times. 

[Deanh]

14 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

The projection is or was 200,000 for let’s just call them explorer aviator EV FOR NOW. At 2020 contract they said 5 vehicles now it’s 2 with a potential 3rd product down the road according to union during online ratification vote.

well theyve cut back for obvious reasons but hopefully if the market turns...and itsfickle for sure...at least they can up capacity if necessary...

[Oac98]

7 minutes ago, Deanh said:

well theyve cut back for obvious reasons but hopefully if the market turns...and itsfickle for sure...at least they can up capacity if necessary...

Ok so I need to correct my information here. The plant will have the CAPACITY to build 200000 units but they expect to build 100000 a year when we start. That info could change now that they’re scaling back so until Ford really sheds light on the situation that’s all I know.