Ford Sales January 2024 - Up 4.3% Overall

[rmc523]

PowerPoint Presentation (q4cdn.com)

 

 

 

I haven't had a chance to update my color charts yet, as the year changeover always takes a bit longer, but here are the Ford numbers for now...

 

[jpd80]

Wow, F Series sales down to 48,000 last month is a concern but the upside is that

total F Series inventory seems under control with 168,000 In pre-COVID times that

number would often be well over 200,000 and big end of MY invectives were common.

 

Thanks to rmc532 for providing all the data, sales, production and inventory 

 

Mach E sales crashed last month to 1,295 while total inventory stands at 21,500,

no wonder Ford wants to cut production, they can’t give them away at the moment….

Ask yourself how long until Ford starts waving the white flag and quick sales them.

 

While Ford doesn’t break out Lightning production from Dearborn plants totals for F150,

it’s a pretty safe assumption that if Kansas city is producing 10,000, then it an easy guess

that the Dearborn plant’s 16,000 figure represents about 10,000  F150s and about 6,000 Lightnings..

Its pretty easy to see if US sales stay about 2,200 then production must be cut in half (begins April).

 

Ford now has a new “Super Segment” of compact vehicles comprising of Maverick, Escape and Bronco Sport.

Looking across the combined sales figure of +33,000 it’s easy how the three vehicles work together but again

mounting inventory for Maverick (18,700), Escape (28,300) and Bronco Sport (29,600) should dispel an ideas

that Ford production supplies are still restricted…….

 

What shocked me even more was Explorer sales 18,885 and total inventory swelling to 46,600 units.

Additionally, Aviator inventory is around 7,900 so maybe some good deals are on the way….

 

And I’ll say this about Ford’s heavy trucks, when Ford only sells 737  and has over 5,100 in inventory,

then something has to change..fast.

Edited February 2 by jpd80

[Oac98]

36 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Wow, F Series sales down to 48,000 last month is a concern but the upside is that

total F Series inventory seems under control with 168,000 In pre-COVID times that

number would often be well over 200,000 and big end of MY invectives were common.

 

Thanks to rmc532 for providing all the data, sales, production and inventory 

 

Mach E sales crashed last month to 1,295 while total inventory stands at 21,500,

no wonder Ford wants to cut production, they can’t give them away at the moment….

Ask yourself how long until Ford starts waving the white flag and quick sales them.

 

While Ford doesn’t break out Lightning production from Dearborn plants totals for F150,

it’s a pretty safe assumption that if Kansas city is producing 10,000, then it an easy guess

that the Dearborn plant’s 16,000 figure represents about 10,000  F150s and about 6,000 Lightnings..

Its pretty easy to see if US sales stay about 2,200 then production must be cut in half (begins April).

 

Ford now has a new “Super Segment” of compact vehicles comprising of Maverick, Escape and Bronco Sport.

Looking across the combined sales figure of +33,000 it’s easy how the three vehicles work together but again

mounting inventory for Maverick (18,700), Escape (28,300) and Bronco Sport (29,600) should dispel an ideas

that Ford production supplies are still restricted…….

 

What shocked me even more was Explorer sales 18,885 and total inventory swelling to 46,600 units.

Additionally, Aviator inventory is around 7,900 so maybe some good deals are on the way….

 

And I’ll say this about Ford’s heavy trucks, when Ford only sells 737  and has over 5,100 in inventory,

then something has to change..fast.

Mach-E sales are absolutely DISMAL. If this trend continues I wonder if Ford will cut a shift at Cuatitlan.  I really hope EV sales rebound sometime in the very near future.

[jpd80]

19 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

Mach-E sales are absolutely DISMAL. If this trend continues I wonder if Ford will cut a shift at Cuatitlan.  I really hope EV sales rebound sometime in the very near future.

The plant produces for North America, Europe and now some ROW markets in Asia Pacific

but still, that inventory number is big……Ford’s BEV sales have taken a big hit lately, not sure

how or if it will be able to respond with anything other than cash on the hood or killer leases.

 

A C2 based Edge/Nautilus with hybrid and PHEV is looking more and more like a good idea..

Edited February 2 by jpd80

[Oac98]

38 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

The plant produces for North America, Europe and now some ROW markets in Asia Pacific

but still, that inventory number is big……Ford’s BEV sales have taken a big hit lately, not sure

how or if it will be able to respond with anything other than cash on the hood or killer leases.

 

A C2 based Edge/Nautilus with hybrid and PHEV is looking more and more like a good idea..

I really hope this situation turns around because as someone who is gonna have to be building BEVs in a year I can’t help but feel some skepticism. I know it’s early but I have every right to be concerned. Do I think EV will fail in the long run, no. All these governments pumping billions of dollars into this won’t allow it to fail in the long run. These sales figures are just garbage how does Ford improve this situation. Ford would rather import so I doubt that we will ever see any edge or nautilus built in N/A again.  Mexico was also supposed to build what Oakville is getting, their projections were way off.  If you ask me OAC should get the next generation Mach E as it’s GE2 as well. It seems as though ford will be under capacity right now sales wise with these EVs. Am I wrong?

[silvrsvt]

21 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

I really hope this situation turns around because as someone who is gonna have to be building BEVs in a year I can’t help but feel some skepticism. I know it’s early but I have every right to be concerned. Do I think EV will fail in the long run, no. All these governments pumping billions of dollars into this won’t allow it to fail in the long run. These sales figures are just garbage how does Ford improve this situation.

 

They aren't going to fail long term, what is happening is a combination of shitty interest rates, the economy not being the greatest, pricing and natural hestationation with sceptical buyers.

[Oac98]

29 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

They aren't going to fail long term, what is happening is a combination of shitty interest rates, the economy not being the greatest, pricing and natural hestationation with sceptical buyers.

Also range anxiety and infrastructure to add to the good points you made.

[silvrsvt]

10 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

Also range anxiety and infrastructure to add to the good points you made.

Right and as the infrastructure improves, that fixes 75% of the range issues.

 

In my area we are coming along pretty well with chargers and whatever I buy next for myself will most likely be an EV, but that won't be till the end of the decade and at the rate I drove my Bronco, I'll have that a long time as a third vehicle. I haven't even hit 20K on it after having it almost 21 months! 

 

I'm hoping they offer a P/HEV Bronco Sport next year when my Wife replaces her Escape. 

[blwnsmoke]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Wow, F Series sales down to 48,000 last month is a concern but the upside is that

total F Series inventory seems under control with 168,000 In pre-COVID times that

number would often be well over 200,000 and big end of MY invectives were common.

 

Thanks to rmc532 for providing all the data, sales, production and inventory 

 

Mach E sales crashed last month to 1,295 while total inventory stands at 21,500,

no wonder Ford wants to cut production, they can’t give them away at the moment….

Ask yourself how long until Ford starts waving the white flag and quick sales them.

 

While Ford doesn’t break out Lightning production from Dearborn plants totals for F150,

it’s a pretty safe assumption that if Kansas city is producing 10,000, then it an easy guess

that the Dearborn plant’s 16,000 figure represents about 10,000  F150s and about 6,000 Lightnings..

Its pretty easy to see if US sales stay about 2,200 then production must be cut in half (begins April).

 

Ford now has a new “Super Segment” of compact vehicles comprising of Maverick, Escape and Bronco Sport.

Looking across the combined sales figure of +33,000 it’s easy how the three vehicles work together but again

mounting inventory for Maverick (18,700), Escape (28,300) and Bronco Sport (29,600) should dispel an ideas

that Ford production supplies are still restricted…….

 

What shocked me even more was Explorer sales 18,885 and total inventory swelling to 46,600 units.

Additionally, Aviator inventory is around 7,900 so maybe some good deals are on the way….

 

And I’ll say this about Ford’s heavy trucks, when Ford only sells 737  and has over 5,100 in inventory,

then something has to change..fast.

 With the 25 Explorer redesign and order banks open as well as 2nd quarter deliveries, I am sure you will see good deals on the 24 explorer 

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

They aren't going to fail long term, what is happening is a combination of shitty interest rates, the economy not being the greatest, pricing and natural hestationation with sceptical buyers.

? 1.9 for Mach Es and 3.9 for Lightnings...those arent shitty rates at all and they indicate the units take rate is slow and Ford trying to rectify that through customer assistance, theyve also dramatically cut production on all their BEVs, so lessons learned. BEV or not though...I sense this year to be a slow one compared with the last across the board...theres buyer trepidation I havent seen for a while, ( middle East situiation and elecytion year so everyones afraid of ther own shadows ) and thats across the board.. 

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Right and as the infrastructure improves, that fixes 75% of the range issues.

 

In my area we are coming along pretty well with chargers and whatever I buy next for myself will most likely be an EV, but that won't be till the end of the decade and at the rate I drove my Bronco, I'll have that a long time as a third vehicle. I haven't even hit 20K on it after having it almost 21 months! 

 

I'm hoping they offer a P/HEV Bronco Sport next year when my Wife replaces her Escape. 

P/HEV Bronco Sport ...BINGO, theres a winner, as long as price is kept in tow...we have 48k PLUS Escapes right now....they arent exactly setting sales numbers on fire...

[Oac98]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Right and as the infrastructure improves, that fixes 75% of the range issues.

 

In my area we are coming along pretty well with chargers and whatever I buy next for myself will most likely be an EV, but that won't be till the end of the decade and at the rate I drove my Bronco, I'll have that a long time as a third vehicle. I haven't even hit 20K on it after having it almost 21 months! 

 

I'm hoping they offer a P/HEV Bronco Sport next year when my Wife replaces her Escape. 

That’s the thing, I hear alot of people say exactly what you’re saying. They say in regards to EV not for now, they’re too expensive and charging infrastructure not adequate and they’re gonna wait. I will not even consider and EV in the near term at all. Cost and these other factor we mentioned are the reason. Your Bronco sounds like it’s gonna last along time. I’m regards to Bronco Sport I can see Ford making that offering soon in regards to PHEV.

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

They aren't going to fail long term, what is happening is a combination of shitty interest rates, the economy not being the greatest, pricing and natural hestationation with sceptical buyers.

It’s a mixture of all the things you’ve just said, Ford went in early and hard and then massive headwinds arrived,

be that covid or supplier issues and now a slowing economy. Certainly a miserable time for automakers but

how they deal with that change is the most important thing. 

[jpd80]

25 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

That’s the thing, I hear alot of people say exactly what you’re saying. They say in regards to EV not for now, they’re too expensive and charging infrastructure not adequate and they’re gonna wait. I will not even consider and EV in the near term at all. Cost and these other factor we mentioned are the reason. Your Bronco sounds like it’s gonna last along time. I’m regards to Bronco Sport I can see Ford making that offering soon in regards to PHEV.

It certainly looks like Ford got ahead of itself or more correctly BEV buyers and charging needs,

assuming that every would just home charge was way too broad brush, everyone is different.

 

PHEVs and even a basic gasoline hybrid look to be a more realistic proposition.

Heck, even a nice fuel efficient gasoline engine is probably enough, it’s not like

everyone still drives gas guzzling V8s, that makes a big difference going into

times when paying bills gets a bit harder.

Edited February 3 by jpd80

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, Deanh said:

? 1.9 for Mach Es and 3.9 for Lightnings...those arent shitty rates at all and they indicate the units take rate is slow and Ford trying to rectify that through customer assistance, theyve also dramatically cut production on all their BEVs, so lessons learned. BEV or not though...I sense this year to be a slow one compared with the last across the board...theres buyer trepidation I havent seen for a while, ( middle East situiation and elecytion year so everyones afraid of ther own shadows ) and thats across the board.. 

Its a good thing that few dealerships took up Ford’s million dollar upgrade requirement to be stuck selling BEVs.

Karma is a bitch but so too are final payments to shift vehicles that become wallflowers.

It would be easier to sell Edges than Mach Es, better to kill the thing that makes your darling look like shit..

Not long ago, it cost Ford something like $25k more to build a Mach E than comparable Edge,

the game was rigged yet Mach E is so hard to sell even with the Mustang name…..

Sometimes a dog just won’t hunt….

 

1 hour ago, Deanh said:

P/HEV Bronco Sport ...BINGO, theres a winner, as long as price is kept in tow...we have 48k PLUS Escapes right now....they arent exactly setting sales numbers on fire...

There’s one thing worse than trying to sell a commodity vehicle and that’s an overpriced Ford commodity vehicle.

They know that Escape has a problem yet they still persist because they’re too cheep to start selling PHEV BS.

They want Escape to hang around like a bad smell unsupported so it’s easier to kill….just like everything else.

Edited February 3 by jpd80

[Trader 10]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

They aren't going to fail long term, what is happening is a combination of shitty interest rates, the economy not being the greatest, pricing and natural hestationation with sceptical buyers.

The “long term” is going to be a lot longer than the wishful thinking we have bombarded with by the EV zealots. Any word on when to expect the next generation Mustang BEV? Demand for the current model is going to get even worse when Oakville comes online with the new BEV model. 

[jpd80]

14 minutes ago, Trader 10 said:

The “long term” is going to be a lot longer than the wishful thinking we have bombarded with by the EV zealots. Any word on when to expect the next generation Mustang BEV? Demand for the current model is going to get even worse when Oakville comes online with the new BEV model. 

I heard somewhere that roughly 12 months after the Oakville twins,

the next Gen Mach E arrives but not moving from Cuautitlan..
 

Like every Ford plan, the will be several twists…..

[DeluxeStang]

3 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

I really hope this situation turns around because as someone who is gonna have to be building BEVs in a year I can’t help but feel some skepticism. I know it’s early but I have every right to be concerned. Do I think EV will fail in the long run, no. All these governments pumping billions of dollars into this won’t allow it to fail in the long run. These sales figures are just garbage how does Ford improve this situation. Ford would rather import so I doubt that we will ever see any edge or nautilus built in N/A again.  Mexico was also supposed to build what Oakville is getting, their projections were way off.  If you ask me OAC should get the next generation Mach E as it’s GE2 as well. It seems as though ford will be under capacity right now sales wise with these EVs. Am I wrong?

I hope we still get a second gen mach-e at this point. The issue with the mach-e and the lightning is they were both impressive products initially. But as the years have gone on, and we've seen the arrival of new aspirational EVs from other brands, it becomes pretty clear where Ford took shortcuts to get their EVs out first. 

 

When your mustang branded sporty EV is losing to basically everything it races against, it's not a good look, especially when your EV is one of the only ones tied to the heritage of your most famous sports car. Lot of performance limitations with that platform. Fingers crossed a second gen mach-e designed from the beginning to be a performance vehicle won't have those issues. 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

I hope we still get a second gen mach-e at this point. The issue with the mach-e and the lightning is they were both impressive products initially. But as the years have gone on, and we've seen the arrival of new aspirational EVs from other brands, it becomes pretty clear where Ford took shortcuts to get their EVs out first. 

I can’t help feeling that Ford’s launch and first 12 months of Mach E, COVID, the delays and problems with batteries/supplies all mounted up and acted against a smooth launch and uptake. So much chatter and distraction…..

 

 

Quote

When your mustang branded sporty EV is losing to basically everything it races against, it's not a good look, especially when your EV is one of the only ones tied to the heritage of your most famous sports car. Lot of performance limitations with that platform. Fingers crossed a second gen mach-e designed from the beginning to be a performance vehicle won't have those issues. 

Let’s face it, the Mach E was a rescue plan of another vehicle  that was probably going to be dead on delivery.

Ford tried and basically ended up with a Tesla Y rival but probably too much “baggage” along the way to really shine.

I kinda ease back on criticism of the Mach E because everything is struggling to sell at the moment,

so I don’t thing doing this or that change would have made much difference to where we are now..

 

Mind you, the two VW based vehicles are probably more in line with what Ford Europe really wanted.

Edited February 3 by jpd80

[Dequindre]

It looks like the infamous "commodity vehicles" saved the day sales wise, while the "passion" vehicles took a nose dive (the Mach-e especially, dang...).

 

This is just one month, but it is emblematic of why I am so nervous about Ford retracting from so many vehicle segments. Cutting your lineup down to high ATP, somewhat niche vehicles without having some "bread and butter" models in-between makes them very vulnerable to fads and swift market changes. Look at how quickly the Mach-e went from being Ford's pride and joy to Ford pushing them into rental fleets. 

[jpd80]

It’s so easy to dismiss vehicles as commodities, forgetting that the whole point of selling them

was to give dealers something to service and sell parts, they normally make virtually  nothing

on new vehicle sales, well outside of the most desirable vehicles…

 

I understand why Ford felt it had to go heavy on BEVs but doing that to the detriment of so many

existing ICE vehicle development programs is a bit like gnawing your own legs off….

A more measured approach would have shown that this didn’t have to be the

either/or choice that Ford turned this into.

Edited February 3 by jpd80

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

I hope we still get a second gen mach-e at this point.

Would be great if designed more in spirit of original Mustang. ? 

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, Dequindre said:

It looks like the infamous "commodity vehicles" saved the day sales wise, while the "passion" vehicles took a nose dive (the Mach-e especially, dang...).

 

This is just one month, but it is emblematic of why I am so nervous about Ford retracting from so many vehicle segments. Cutting your lineup down to high ATP, somewhat niche vehicles without having some "bread and butter" models in-between makes them very vulnerable to fads and swift market changes. Look at how quickly the Mach-e went from being Ford's pride and joy to Ford pushing them into rental fleets. 

Agree that Ford needs to consider lower-cost vehicle options by offering “bread and butter” variants.  That doesn’t necessarily mean stripped down.  An article I read recently made the point that vehicles have become too expensive for the good of auto manufacturers themselves.

 

This brings up another point — that if BEV sales are lower, how is that going to affect sales of larger, less fuel-efficient but more profitable vehicles when projected CAFÉ numbers are no longer on same track?  Wont all those 100+ MPG EVs not sold skew overall average down significantly?

 

If BEVs don’t start selling better, won’t Ford be forced to sell more fuel-efficient vehicles, which are typically less profitable?

 

[sullynd]

7 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

Mach-E sales are absolutely DISMAL. If this trend continues I wonder if Ford will cut a shift at Cuatitlan.  I really hope EV sales rebound sometime in the very near future.

Losing the tax rebate likely hurt. 
 

Love my Lightning, but my Mach-E was the best Ford I’ve owned. 

[DeluxeStang]

2 hours ago, Dequindre said:

It looks like the infamous "commodity vehicles" saved the day sales wise, while the "passion" vehicles took a nose dive (the Mach-e especially, dang...).

 

This is just one month, but it is emblematic of why I am so nervous about Ford retracting from so many vehicle segments. Cutting your lineup down to high ATP, somewhat niche vehicles without having some "bread and butter" models in-between makes them very vulnerable to fads and swift market changes. Look at how quickly the Mach-e went from being Ford's pride and joy to Ford pushing them into rental fleets. 

Well here's the thing, the f-series, maverick, bronco, and explorer, could all be seen as passion products, and those are all doing quite well. A lot of the passion products Ford has that aren't selling well currently, are the kinds of products where Ford is really onto something special, they just have to make some tweaks and improvements. The mach-e is one such example. 

 

Passion product doesn't mean it has to be some 100k supercar, and that's all Ford is gonna sell to people. It means Ford is done with being vanilla. That's not to say there's no money to be made with vanilla, generic products. That's not to say Ford isn't going to care about quality or making affordable products moving forward. They're just saying Ford wants to become the affordable aspirational brand, which is what Ford does best as is. I can't think of a single brand who does as good of a job at making dream cars people can realistically afford. It's smart to lean into what makes your company unique, why waste money trying to be like everyone else?