I'd say this is one of those situations where we're both right. I agree that the desire to own EVs, especially amongst younger consumers, is there, but that high prices are gatekeeping those buyers from getting into new EVs, we agree on that. It's just that most consumers who have the level of income and assets needed to afford these massive, expensive EVs, tend to be on the older side.   In terms of tech perception, a significant portion of older consumers just don't like EVs, it's too different from what they know, they're often skeptical of new technology and adopting it unless they have to. Generally speaking, a lot of people as they age kinda settle into things, they don't want to have to relearn, and adapt to something drastically different than what they already know, unless it's absolutely necessary. A 70 yr old doesn't want to be stuck at a charging station in the middle of winter at night trouble shooting a sketchy charger when filling up for gas is something they've done for decades and can do effortlessly.   This doesn't apply to everyone, there are wealthy young people and tech savvy old people, but just as a general rule that's what I've observed. Again, it's a case of both of us being right, EV adoption is struggling because the people who want EVs, often younger, can't afford most of the ones on sale, and the people who can afford them are skeptical of the tech and don't want to embrace it. CE1 shifts towards EVs that will actually have demand.

As you know, there’s a lot of difference between the production of prototypes and the quality required for at speed main line production. Ford needs to spend enough time getting this right and not just sign off.   There is good reason to be optimistic but the process is just so different, none of this would be possible without gigacasting modules.

No but it's a hell of a lot further along than a theory on a powerpoint.  First, if their ideas had not proven achievable they would never have announced the skunkworks project at all.     Nobody is saying it's a sure thing and there will be challenges but factory workers have seen details close up and that tells me they're far enough along that it will come to fruition and meet most of the goals.

2 separate things.  Buyers either want or are willing to live with EV limitations or not.  For the ones willing to purchase an EV they might not be able to afford what they want or what they want might not be available yet.   Look at large suv monthly sales and compare it to small cars and suvs.  Out of 100 potential buyers almost all could afford a small car but only 10% could afford a new Expedition.   As price goes up you lose potential buyers.  That's why having a lower priced EV that can be sold at a decent profit is so attractive.  That's where the biggest volume is.  The challenge in the past was it was difficult to compete in that space and make healthy margins.  That's where ce1 has the potential to be a game changer.

No vehicles have been built using this “new” (to Ford) assembly process in an actual factory.  Farley himself has stated that the entire project and assembly process is not a “sure thing”.   

When it comes to affordable vehicles, I think the main appeal of EV tech is it'll make cars feel a lot more premium. The refinement, smoothness, lack of noise you get with an EV, that makes a 30k EV feel like a high end gas powered vehicle. Whereas a lot of 25-30k gas powered vehicles can feel a little harsh, or buzzy, even a maverick hybrid which pains me to say as an owner of one. It's usually fine, other times it feels pretty suspect.    For buyers who just want the nicest feeling, most reliable, lowest maintenance vehicles, affordable vehicles with the fewest compromises, EVs are gonna be the future there. 

While a higher price does add additional barriers to entry, I believe if that was the main thing that mattered, we wouldn't see anywhere near as many large full-sized SUVs and well equipped trucks as we do. Given how expensive they are, things like well equipped expeditions or suburbans are incredibly popular, same with a lot of nice f-series.    I believe it's because there's a sense of familiarity there. A 2025 expedition is going to be more refined and advanced than a 2015 expedition by a very sizable margin. But the way it drives, what it's like to maintain and live with, is probably pretty similar. You have to adapt to the new features and so on, but there's still some points of comparison. People feel more comfortable with it because it's what they know.    Whereas transitioning to an EV, you have to adapt to an entirely new maintenance and charging experience, with a driving experience unlike what many have experienced. I believe a lot of people find that too off-putting, and aren't prepared to spend serious money on a vehicle unlike anything they've owned before out of fear that they'll hate the ownership experience. 

Nothing is guaranteed, but they've been working on it for almost 3 years now and building actual vehicles.  This isn't vaporware.   That's why it was a skunkworks project led by outsiders.  Clean sheet no corporate distraction or impediments.  New factory new processes.   It doesn't have to be exactly the same.  Gigacasting, electrical, new assembly processes can all be extrapolated to ICE.

Some of your posts should be required reading…

Regarding most new vehicle buyers, I think that there’s just no compelling reason to own a BEV plus those people are not ready to give up on ICE and various hybrids. This issue is exacerbated in places like North America where the cost of fuel is still  relatively cheap….