silvrsvt Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 There was a columnist in PC Magazine who I feel he got it right. Autonomous cars? Probably not. Nanny cars? yea, (crossing the line, getting to close etc). I have yet to see an article on how much the self driving cars will cost, compared to regular cars. Also the cost of maintenance, what happens when a sensor goes out and it's $300-$500 +? You have a 3000 pound paper weight until the part comes in from China, 3 months later? Finally, until these cars are run in the weather we are having this past week, we won't know how they handle snow storms, or fluffy snow coming down etc. As for flying cars, as Red Forman from the That 70's Show, --- We were promised hover cars, what happened to them? Part availability won't be an issue-well maybe when it comes out at first, but you have that problem when its sourced locally too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldwizard Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 There are 4 or 5 regular posters here who really understand software development, testing and implementation. Sorry for being late to this thread. I missed it when it was more active. That statement applies to 99% of the Ford Engineering Management ! They think because they once made an Excel spreadsheet, they know it all ! When the One Ford push started, it was decided that EU would handle all diesel engine software development, including the US PowerStroke engines. The first thing they did was modify the existing software that had been developed by Ford Dearborn software engineers to conform to the EU way of doing software development ! This took thousands and thousands of engineering man-hours. It also meant that certain function that were common between gasoline and diesel engines (cruise control, battery charging, etc) would have to be modified to fit into the EU design every time a new version came out. No one in middle level management even blinked. Not a good forecast for the future ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldwizard Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) Jim Hackett may be going off the deep end ! He has embraced Tony Seba (a "think tank" operator/author) prognostications. So much so that he has decreed that all Leadership Level (LL) management watch his lecture Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation His premises is that there are several "technologies" converging (battery, green energy, etc, etc) that will RADICALLY change the automotive industry in the next 10-15 years. To the point of 100% EV in light duty vehicles by about 2030 and autonomous "ride sharing" being the norm. Sorry, I just don't buy into this, certainly not by 2030 ! Edited January 8, 2018 by theoldwizard 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I dont agree with that timeline either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I still don't see widespread use on public roads. But the technology will translate as driver assistance features. The bigger adoption would be in the commercial sector for hauling people and cargo on private property. Just an extension of the robots and smaller autonomous vehicles in use today. That's what I think Ford is targeting and I think it's smart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 As long as they dont forget about the people who actually care about cars and trucks I dont mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 His premises is that there are several "technologies" converging (battery, green energy, etc, etc) that will RADICALLY change the automotive industry in the next 10-15 years. To the point of 100% EV in light duty vehicles by about 2030 and autonomous "ride sharing" being the norm. Sorry, I just don't buy into this, certainly not by 2030 ! Agreed, way to optimistic. Autonomous vehicles and ride sharing many catch on in the big cities of the world by 2030, but elsewhere, the take rate will be slow. As for EV's, with steadily dropping battery costs and steadily increasing driving range, I can see 20-25% EV's by 2030. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 If EV's become as big as they say they are-has anyone realistically looked at how to cut/cap costs of battery production, if the demand ramps up for them like they expect? Are we going to be walking into another oil type situation where certain countries control lithium and other rare metals needed for battery production? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Are we going to be walking into another oil type situation where certain countries control lithium and other rare metals needed for battery production? I think its pretty obvious thats whats going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Are we going to be walking into another oil type situation where certain countries control lithium and other rare metals needed for battery production? From what I read, many think that lithium-ion batteries have gone as far as they can. The next big thing will be solid-state batteries, which can be made from a variety of materials. But that's still a long way off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 From what I read, many think that lithium-ion batteries have gone as far as they can. The next big thing will be solid-state batteries, which can be made from a variety of materials. But that's still a long way off. Yeah but you just know we will be stuck with Li Ion batteries due to the huge investment that's been put into that tech they don't want a repeat of NiCad where that tech was made redundant overnight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Jim Hackett is missing the obvious. If you ask the average car buyer what they care about the most in a vehicle, it is still styling, value, quality, versatility, and to a lesser extent safety. A buyer goes into the local Ford or Lincoln dealer not because Ford is- what I feel is wasting money- coming out with autonomous vehicles, but because Ford is offering a vehicle right here right now based on what is needed for the customer. Regarding Hackett, it seems like 2005 all over again. A failed CEO is being replaced by what is available. Fields could not handle the job in 2005 and Alan Mulally was brought in. I hope that it is not the same scenario, but the drive towards autonomous cars that nobody seems to want is taking valuable dollars away from core product much like Jac Nassars obsession with amassing luxury brands starved the Ford/Mercury/Lincoln brands of key product at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 You’re forgetting that Ford bought these companies that were already working on these things. They’re not necessarily diverting a lot of current Ford car capital. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 You’re forgetting that Ford bought these companies that were already working on these things. They’re not necessarily diverting a lot of current Ford car capital. The statement is a contradiction. If they bought the companies, then capital was diverted by definition. We also know that Hatchet (I know) diverted funds from IC engine development to AV development - not much, but diverted nonentheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The statement is a contradiction. If they bought the companies, then capital was diverted by definition. We also know that Hatchet (I know) diverted funds from IC engine development to AV development - not much, but diverted nonentheless. They bought the company but the company also came with its own assets and capital and employees as opposed to being a project that Ford had to start from scratch internally. They may or may not have chosen to divert some R&D funding but it’s not guaranteed just because they’re working on AVs. They could easily continue doing both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 (edited) If you ask the average car buyer what they care about the most in a vehicle, it is still styling, value, quality, versatility, and to a lesser extent safety. A buyer goes into the local Ford or Lincoln dealer not because Ford is- what I feel is wasting money- coming out with autonomous vehicles, but because Ford is offering a vehicle right here right now based on what is needed for the customer. Focusing only on what buyers care about now won't enable Ford to survive in the years and decades to come. Ford leaders' job is to invent the future. That's why promoting Jim Hackett to CEO was such an important milestone for the company. http://timkastelle.org/blog/2010/09/our-job-is-to-invent-the-future/ "…opinions are what you get back from customers once you’ve done something, so they are largely irrelevant to you. They aren’t the precondition for customers doing something or a good guide to what you should do. At all. So don’t waste your time with ask/answer research and opinions. Throw away the reassurance of quoting the consumer or stats garnered from opinion polls. Watch your customers, observe them, live with them, but don’t expect them to tell you much themselves. Because they can’t. Instead, recognize: It is your job to invent the future – you are the inventors. It is not the customer’s job – they are not good at the future but they might buy your invention if you get it right (or not)." Edited January 13, 2018 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Thats fine and all but you dont mortgage the present for the future that could be completely different from what you think it will be, or a future that may not even exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 Thats fine and all but you dont mortgage the present for the future that could be completely different from what you think it will be, or a future that may not even exist. Well you can't just keep doing what your doing either....thats why there is so much turmoil in the auto industry now. I think of alot of it is complete bullshit like fully autonomous cars (maybe in 20 years) and ride sharing, but BEVs and subscription based car ownership will become more popular within the next 10-15 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blksn8k2 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I guess I don't see the difference between autonomous cars and mass transit. If you don't want to drive, ride the damn bus and save the expense of buying a car in the first place. Yeah, I get it, that doesn't make money for the car companies. Maybe they just need to make and sell more and better buses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcartwright99 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I guess I don't see the difference between autonomous cars and mass transit. If you don't want to drive, ride the damn bus and save the expense of buying a car in the first place. Yeah, I get it, that doesn't make money for the car companies. Maybe they just need to make and sell more and better buses. I think there needs to be some clarification here. There are two areas, which are complete different but can be put together. Electrification is one and it's the closest to being the new reality. We see examples of these cars now. Hell, Ford even sells them (not segment competitive). These won't become mainstream till range goes up, charging becomes quicker, infrastructure expands and prices comes down a bit (and not reliant on tax credits). Hybrids will bridge the gap between ICE cars and full electric. This is happening sooner rather than later. The second is autonomous cars. Current cars are getting some of this technology now. The low hanging fruit being automatic braking and lang keeping technology. Here is where you are going to see major delays. Getting all of these systems to work together and getting these cars to work in all environments (especially with the US's crumbling infrastructure). I also have a feeling we will have a major legal hurdles in regards to autonomous technology. It will just take one lawsuit to put the stops and rolling this out fast. I don't think we'll see a full autonomous car (no steering wheel or pedals) released to the public for at least 15-20 years. I do think as time goes on many of these technologies will make their way into cars to but they won't be fully autonomous. From my perspective, Ford is putting a boatload of cash into both of these segments. Electrification is much less riskier, as it's happening now. Autonomy in cars and the future is much more murky. I just hope Ford's version of the future isn't way off, or they may be in big trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I guess I don't see the difference between autonomous cars and mass transit. If you don't want to drive, ride the damn bus and save the expense of buying a car in the first place. Yeah, I get it, that doesn't make money for the car companies. Maybe they just need to make and sell more and better buses. Because buses and trains don’t go everywhere. If you’re lucky and live in a place like Seattle it works fine. But it doesn’t work at all in cities like Atlanta for 90% of the population that don’t live and work near a bus or train line. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 If anything, I think Autonomous cars will add even more cars to the road. I think its going to take a few generations before people completely give up on actual car ownership. Not sure how well this will work for taking kids to different places etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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