Escape, Edge, TC to be Killed

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Cheap and lazy route for sure. Any investment on Ford Blue's part for hybrid powertrains nowadays should be kept to an absolute minimum.

You’re probably correct in that it’s unlikely to happen, though I find it disappointing.  The main reason for using Hybrid technology is to reduce fuel consumption and thus reduce CO2 emissions, plus save on fuel costs.  Effective (efficient) hybrids often rely on Atkinson engines, efficient transmissions, and more powerful electric motors, and all these would require additional investment for RWD vehicles.  IMO Ford would need a larger-displacement Atkinson engine and a new RWD transmission with over 100 kW of electric motor assist for heavier RWD vehicles.  That would require significant investment, which would first require a longer-term commitment to ICE powertrains. As you implied, not likely in today’s BEV environment. 

[silvrsvt]

23 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

There's a very strong argument that if you want to save the planet, hybrids are the answer. They produce hardly any emissions, but can be offered at a much lower price that BEVs currently, drastically reducing the barrier to entry. 

 

Its not as big as you think it is, using the Escape as an example, its 225 vs 295 CO2 emissions when comparing the FWD HEV vs the 1.5L

[Rick73]

Mach-E sold OK but Lightning seems fairly low for August.

 

https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_news/2023/Sep/05/ford-august-2023-u-s-sales-data.pdf

[Rangers09]

13 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The issue your missing is that CAFE is going to force everyones hand into making vehicles that are EVs. PHEVs are fucking useless unless you plug them in (which seems vast majority of users don't), you get no additional benefit over a HEV if you don't and if your plugging in (from a CO2 reduction perspective), your better off going full EV.  They are basically a crutch that doesn't "do anything", outside of keeping the inconvenience factor low for users. Politics might play to a point but at this point I don't see how the current administration gets voted out with demographics and voting blocks the way they are. 

 

Short term (next 3-4 years) you'll be ok, but once we get closer to 2030, it will make no sense for future investment into ICE/Hybrid power. The thing that everyone forgets is what is coming out this year was done 3-4 years ago. 

 

The focus on EVs the past 24 months or so was wholly focused on helping stock prices and helping Fords' image-its much like Bill Ford saying they are coming out with hybrid SUVs that get 30 MPG or something like that almost 15 years ago...didn't quite pan out exactly that way. 

 

Your Government's regulations are only 1 part of the equation, as consumers (voters) will also have a say in how this eventually plays out. 

 

This is the 2nd posting I have seen stating that the vast majority of PHEV users don't plug in, again without providing any personal experiences, or substantive facts. In my experience with 5 neighbourhood PHEV's, they are all plugged in while at home. When out walking I also see other PHEV's in driveways that are also plugged in. Might be a small sample size, but these are actual facts. In addition, I question why somebody would pay a significant premium for a PHEV and not plug it in, when power is readily available. Doesn't make sense, especially since fuel is about double the cost of our cheap hydro power.

 

Yes, when we go on road trips and chargers are in short supply to non-existent, and many condo/hotel/parking garages don't have ready access to 110V outlets, we don't plug in, using it as a hybrid. Over a 2-week trip, we used about 25% of the gas that the 2019 Escape would have used. Note - starting with a full battery and ending with almost 0 charge.

 

So from personal experience, the PHEV is not useless, as in our experience it is a perfect transition, while BEV technology is woefully inadequate for our overall needs.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Mach-E sold OK but Lightning seems fairly low for August.

 

https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_news/2023/Sep/05/ford-august-2023-u-s-sales-data.pdf

 

Thanks for the sales data Rick73. The relatively low August 2023 sales volume for F-150 Lightning is expected because REVC just restarted production on August 1 after a 6-week shutdown to expand capacity. Ford is forecasting a dramatic increase in F-150 Lightning sales for the remainder of 2023. Ford Restarts Expanded Rouge Electric Vehicle Center; F-150 Lightning Production Capacity Tripled by this Fall | Ford Media Center (lincoln.com)

 

[Rick73]

16 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

When August sales numbers are released it will be very interesting to see the spread between PHEV/BEV.

I’m not sure Ford separates PHEV from HEV when “Hybrid” sales are reported, but Hybrids as a Class did well for the month at 10,945.  Growth rate at 31.9% was much higher than ICE, so maybe Ford should invest more in new hybrids.

[Texasota]

15 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

The issue your missing is that CAFE is going to force everyones hand into making vehicles that are EVs. PHEVs are fucking useless unless you plug them in (which seems vast majority of users don't), you get no additional benefit over a HEV if you don't and if your plugging in (from a CO2 reduction perspective), your better off going full EV.  They are basically a crutch that doesn't "do anything", outside of keeping the inconvenience factor low for users. Politics might play to a point but at this point I don't see how the current administration gets voted out with demographics and voting blocks the way they are.

You have a remarkable and irrational capacity for believing what you want to believe. You keep spouting this nonsense about PHEVs not being plugged in and you lose another chunk of your credibility each time you do it. My Escape PHEV is always plugged in and programmed to charge over night. The vast majority of its miles are EV.

 

The biggest problem with BEVs at this time (in my opinion) is that they are taking valuable battery resources away from PHEVs. Ford could be putting 4-6 PHEVs on the road for every BEV it puts on the road. PHEVs are currently the best solution for the masses and the environment. It will remain so until battery technology, the grid and charging infrastructure makes BEVs practical for the masses. There is strong demand for PHEHs (and HEVs) with lengthy wait times to get one. I had to wait 10 months for my Escape PHEV to arrive.

 

 

[rperez817]

11 minutes ago, Texasota said:

The biggest problem with BEVs at this time (in my opinion) is that they are taking valuable battery resources away from PHEVs. 

 

The biggest problem with PHEV is the opportunity cost issue you mentioned, but in the other direction. Automakers who expend resources on PHEV are not only hurting their own BEV efforts, but also "prolonging the use of internal combustion engines and petroleum" as Autothink Research explained 4 years ago.

 

Hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids may be doing more to delay the consumer transition from ICE vehicles to EVs than to serve as a useful “bridge” or transition facilitator. EVs are now ready for prime time (i.e., as a fully capable substitute for millions of ICE vehicles). Hybrids and Plug-in hybrids (especially the ones offering only 10 – 25 miles of auxiliary electric range) may actually be perpetuating and prolonging the use of internal combustion engines and petroleum more than they are facilitating the transition to all-battery EVs.

[paintguy]

2 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

 

Your Government's regulations are only 1 part of the equation, as consumers (voters) will also have a say in how this eventually plays out. 

 

This is the 2nd posting I have seen stating that the vast majority of PHEV users don't plug in, again without providing any personal experiences, or substantive facts. In my experience with 5 neighbourhood PHEV's, they are all plugged in while at home. When out walking I also see other PHEV's in driveways that are also plugged in. Might be a small sample size, but these are actual facts. In addition, I question why somebody would pay a significant premium for a PHEV and not plug it in, when power is readily available. Doesn't make sense, especially since fuel is about double the cost of our cheap hydro power.

 

Yes, when we go on road trips and chargers are in short supply to non-existent, and many condo/hotel/parking garages don't have ready access to 110V outlets, we don't plug in, using it as a hybrid. Over a 2-week trip, we used about 25% of the gas that the 2019 Escape would have used. Note - starting with a full battery and ending with almost 0 charge.

 

So from personal experience, the PHEV is not useless, as in our experience it is a perfect transition, while BEV technology is woefully inadequate for our overall needs.

Tend to agree. Have a relative who purchased a PHEV and is going all in with an installed 240V charger. Many Ford managers got PHEV when a "sale" was done on management lease. They were using onsite charging at the exec garage. Also good word of mouth to others considering the technology. A neighbor of mine bought a Chevy  Volt, was filling up once a season. After a 3 year lease, he had confidence to buy a BEV, a Tesla Model 3. Ford may find it easier to sell to BEV shy people. The high range BEV tend to ~100KWH battery. The PHEV closer to ~20 KWH. Most BEV advocates claim people "should" need range only for the average day's drive. Right now battery availability a concern. So a choice, make 5 PHEV or 1 BEV. If you sell the 5 PHEV people may convince themselves, yes I can stand lower range. Gives the company time to develop supply chain for batteries. Also the charging times claimed are items in dispute. Will a Ford at a Tesla charger, accept charge at the same rate as a Tesla? Will Mr. Musk allow it to happen at that rate, even if technically possible? Did Mr. Farley negotiate it? Or will we all be waiting for our Ford to charge while waiting in a van down by the river?

[akirby]

7 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 Automakers who expend resources on PHEV are not only hurting their own BEV efforts, but also "prolonging the use of internal combustion engines and petroleum"

 

Absolutely true IF AND ONLY IF BEVs are viable for all buyers which means much cheaper prices and ubiquitous public charging.  And anyone who is being honest and logical knows that isn’t happening for years and maybe a decade or two.   Ignoring hybrids and PHEVs in the meantime will only keep more non hybrid ICE vehicles on the road.

[Hugh]

I'm not surprised but bummed. I wonder what the replacement will be? I am hoping for an Edge ST successor of some kind.

[DeluxeStang]

16 minutes ago, Hugh said:

I'm not surprised but bummed. I wonder what the replacement will be? I am hoping for an Edge ST successor of some kind.

I kinda see that in the mach-e gt. 

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Texasota said:

You have a remarkable and irrational capacity for believing what you want to believe. You keep spouting this nonsense about PHEVs not being plugged in and you lose another chunk of your credibility each time you do it. My Escape PHEV is always plugged in and programmed to charge over night. The vast majority of its miles are EV.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/630341/plug-in-hybrids-arent-being-plugged-in-study/

 

Link to study

 

https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-phev-us-dec22.pdf

 

quote from the study:

The analysis in this paper arrives at the following conclusions: Real-world electric drive share may be 26%–56% lower and real-world fuel consumption may be 42%–67% higher than assumed within EPA’s labeling program for light duty vehicles.

 

So maybe an apology is in order? Don't worry I didn't take it personally. 

[silvrsvt]

51 minutes ago, akirby said:

Absolutely true IF AND ONLY IF BEVs are viable for all buyers which means much cheaper prices and ubiquitous public charging.  And anyone who is being honest and logical knows that isn’t happening for years and maybe a decade or two.   Ignoring hybrids and PHEVs in the meantime will only keep more non hybrid ICE vehicles on the road.

 

Here is the problem-people think they won't be able to buy a hybrid/PHEV or whatever post 2030 and people also think that they will only be able to buy a EV in the next few years....when both are completely wrong. 

[silvrsvt]

3 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

 

Your Government's regulations are only 1 part of the equation, as consumers (voters) will also have a say in how this eventually plays out. 

 

So how much of a say did they have with all the added regulations over the past 50 years with CAFE and safety options (airbags, backup cameras, etc) being added to vehicles that increased costs? 

 

The point is that yeah EVs are expensive now but in 5 years that might be a completely different case due to added battery production from all makers in North America making more batteries for cars. Its just like other things in the automotive landscape or even the IT world where something that new or has limited production costs more. Pricing will come down eventually. 

[rmc523]

On 9/1/2023 at 2:52 PM, ExplorerDude said:

There were plans for a brand-new Transit Connect to be built on C2 and alongside the Bronco Sport and Maverick in Hermosillo. When Ford realized the profitability and high demand of the Bronco Sport and Maverick, it shelved the next Transit Connect. It would’ve been a hit but the volume and what they’d make on it weren’t worth it, they didn’t want the risk of sacrificing any Bronco Sports or Mavericks.

 

Ironic that had they kept on with the extra C2 plant Mark Fields started, they'd have been able to.

 

On 9/4/2023 at 10:46 AM, paintguy said:

How does BEV eliminate need for crash testing? Standards are still the same. If there is not, imagine a safety standard for integrity of high voltage systems woth BEV. Fuel leakage, obviously goes away.

 

He didn't say that.  A comma was missing, he said emission standards weren't necessary, and crash testing is good/necessary regardless of powertrain type.

[akirby]

15 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

https://insideevs.com/news/630341/plug-in-hybrids-arent-being-plugged-in-study/

 

Link to study

 

https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-phev-us-dec22.pdf

 

quote from the study:
 

 

So maybe an apology is in order? Don't worry I didn't take it personally. 

That’s based on fuelly.org self reporters and some unknown data from automotive repairs.  How can you even suggest that’s a valid measurement?   A survey of actual owners would be much more accurate, which is basically what Texasota gave you albeit with a very small sample size.  Even the researchers admit this

 

Quote

 

[akirby]

23 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Here is the problem-people think they won't be able to buy a hybrid/PHEV or whatever post 2030 and people also think that they will only be able to buy a EV in the next few years....when both are completely wrong. 

Well based on what you say they shouldn’t be able to buy a PHEV at all because that won’t force people into EVs soon enough.

 

But if a BEV isn’t viable and PHEVs aren’t available then people will just continue buying non hybrid ICE vehicles.  You can’t force somebody to buy a $50k BEV that they can’t easily charge.  
 

If cheap BEVs and ubiquitous public charging is available in 5 years then new PHEVs are not needed.  But you don’t honestly think we’ll be there in 5 years?  I’m not sure we’ll be there in 10 years.  So why not offer both and allocate batteries to whichever one is needed and what consumers want to buy during this transition period?  Otherwise you’re just forcing people into less efficient non PHEV ICE vehicles.  And any buyer that would charge a BEV at home would also charge a PHEV.

[Rangers09]

3 hours ago, Rick73 said:

I’m not sure Ford separates PHEV from HEV when “Hybrid” sales are reported, but Hybrids as a Class did well for the month at 10,945.  Growth rate at 31.9% was much higher than ICE, so maybe Ford should invest more in new hybrids.

 

Based on our experience, I totally agree. The PHEV/HEV is an excellent option, until BEV technology and charging station infrastructure improves.

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Absolutely true IF AND ONLY IF BEVs are viable for all buyers which means much cheaper prices and ubiquitous public charging.  And anyone who is being honest and logical knows that isn’t happening for years and maybe a decade or two.   Ignoring hybrids and PHEVs in the meantime will only keep more non hybrid ICE vehicles on the road.

BINGO!...decade or two....and whos to say during that time a synthetic gas substitute hasnt been produced with zero emmisions that is affordable AND retroactive in that a regular ICE doesnt require a retrofit....there gos ICE becoming obselete...

Edited September 5, 2023 by Deanh

[silvrsvt]

8 minutes ago, akirby said:

That’s based on fuelly.org self reporters and some unknown data from automotive repairs.  How can you even suggest that’s a valid measurement?   A survey of actual owners would be much more accurate, which is basically what Texasota gave you albeit with a very small sample size. 

 

Another study from the EU:

https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/real-world-phev-use-jun22.pdf

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine an electric and a combustion engine drive train. Their potential to reduce fuel consumption, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and local air pollution thus depends on how much they are effectively driven on electricity. Existing studies on the real-world usage of PHEVs certified under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) have shown that those vehicle models are driven much less on electricity than the type-approval procedure assumes, which on average results in two to four times larger real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions than the official type-approval values. There is less evidence concerning the average real-world fuel consumption of PHEVs certified under the more recent Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). As newer PHEVs certified under WLTP are equipped with longer electric ranges and the deviation between real-world and type-approval fuel consumption for conventional vehicles is smaller, one could expect the deviation between type-approval and real-world fuel consumption of PHEVs to decrease with the WLTP introduction.

 

WLTP is just a new testing standard-these are the changes

 

Car performance decrease from NEDC to WLTP^[13]

Car	NEDC autonomy	WLTP autonomy	Decrease
Renault Zoé	400 km	300 km	25%
BMW i3	300 km	245 km	18%
Hyundai Kona electric 64 kWh	546 km	482 km	12%

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, akirby said:

Well based on what you say they shouldn’t be able to buy a PHEV at all because that won’t force people into EVs soon enough.

 

But if a BEV isn’t viable and PHEVs aren’t available then people will just continue buying non hybrid ICE vehicles.  You can’t force somebody to buy a $50k BEV that they can’t easily charge.  
 

If cheap BEVs and ubiquitous public charging is available in 5 years then new PHEVs are not needed.  But you don’t honestly think we’ll be there in 5 years?  I’m not sure we’ll be there in 10 years.  So why not offer both and allocate batteries to whichever one is needed and what consumers want to buy during this transition period?  Otherwise you’re just forcing people into less efficient non PHEV ICE vehicles.  And any buyer that would charge a BEV at home would also charge a PHEV.

 

Misinterpreting what I'm trying say-I'm looking at this long term between now and 2035.

 

What we get between now and 2028 or so is already more or less decided, since the engineering work has been completed and the logistics of manufacturing it are being ramped up.

 

What happens long term, post 2028 is what isn't nailed down yet. Yeah there is talk of making 50% of all new car sales in US EVs...will that happen? Prob not...if pricing comes down similarly to what ICE/Hybrids are, the more likely it is. Lets see how the build out of charging around the country goes. I know my area is a head of that now due to demand, but I can see more rural areas having issues. 

 

Working on a new PHEV starting in post 2028 world would be a stupid move by pretty much anyone...your just better off improving what you have at that time till EVs can take over. 

 

 

 

 

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, Rick73 said:

Mach-E sold OK but Lightning seems fairly low for August.

 

https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_news/2023/Sep/05/ford-august-2023-u-s-sales-data.pdf

Page 2 of those results gives inventory levels, total Mach E Inventory is now above 20,000 vehicles

I am concerned that Mach E is selling at 5,000/month yet production is now way above that….

[Hugh]

1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

I kinda see that in the mach-e gt. 

The entry price is too high currently so that was a no-go to start. I'm afraid what will come next will be unimpressive with 2 extra seats I'll never use. However, that's speculation at best.

[silvrsvt]

27 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Page 2 of those results gives inventory levels, total Mach E Inventory is now above 20,000 vehicles

I am concerned that Mach E is selling at 5,000/month yet production is now way above that….

The plant in Mexico is also making units for the EU. 

[akirby]

So this is how they explain the difference.  1 and 4 are just bad assumptions by the modeler.  2 is precisely the reason people buy PHEVs over BEVs- so they can more easily take long trips.  Not plugging in or not plugging in long enough is only one of 4 POSSIBLE reasons.  There is no way this data suggests that most PHEV owners don’t plug in.