Farley Says Boring Vehicles Are Going Away

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Corolla sized interior would make the Tesla 2 a compact vehicle, I don’t think that’s the aim of that vehicle

 

Another vehicle size to consider is Puma - approx 165” long x 71” wide, that may be a better sizing scope for the 2

as the Yaris Utility is a bit smaller than that, I didn’t realise the width was still that narrow…

 

Just thinking that if the 2 ends up only a couple of inches narrower but a far bit shorter than the Y then that

may be all the differentiation the 2 needs..On the other hand if it just a tad smaller that may encourage more

internal sales conquesting…..it’s a tricky one.

It will be interesting for sure to see what they come up with because they seem to do their own thing.  For US market, a vehicle narrower than about 70 inches wide would likely lose many potential buyers, and Tesla needs Model 2 to have mass appeal, which is why I think it won’t be as narrow as a Yaris, or electric Mini, Fiat 500e or similar.  Maybe it will be closer to Peugeot e-208, though I expect it could be longer.

 

IMO a lot depends on how aerodynamic Tesla makes the Model 2, in order to improve highway range, versus making it shorter like 5-door competition it will face in Europe and other markets.  The truncated rear of most 5-door or tiny SUV reduces aero efficiency, and I doubt Tesla would do that.   If battery is reduced to speculated size of +/- 53 kWh, Model 2 must be very aerodynamic to approach 250 miles of range.
 

Leaked sketches and speculation has the Model 2 appearing like a compact version of Model Y.  If so, I would expect dimensions roughly 172” long, 70” wide, and 56~58 high.  Height may be proportionally lower and closer to Model 3 to eliminate that bloated Y look.

[akirby]

Ford doesn’t NEED a cheap commodity crossover.  It’s not worth the investment.

[DeluxeStang]

3 hours ago, AM222 said:

Ford needs something like the new Chevy Trax, a C-segment crossover that starts under $22,000 (including Destination). It literally fills the spot the C-segment Chevy Cruze sedan and hatchback left. 

The 2024 Ford Escape Active FWD starts at $31,635 (including Destination)
The 2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend starts at $33,470 (including Destination)

In 2019, these were the starting prices of the Flex and Explorer.

 

6 hours ago, AM222 said:

Instead of killing the Focus, maybe Ford should evolve the range into something like a Focus Active but with better integrated SUV styling cues. Something a tad taller and more muscular.

If you think about it, the new C-segment Chevy Trax is essentially a crossover replacement for the Cruze. 

Guys , this is basically what the maverick is. Sure, some people need an enclosed cargo area, but that's what camper shells are for. 

[rmc523]

23 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I’d take the $25k price for Tesla 2 as a grain of salt, that’s the low ball estimate to get reservations rolling

and then the switch comes because they have so many orders, they just want to build the +$30k versions…

We've seen this dance before…..

 

Tesla talks a good game on increased efficiency bringing down prices but the 2 also represents competing interests of increasing build numbers vs reduced actual  profit per vehicle versus the 3 & Y.

 

. It also assumes that many 3 an Y customers won’t switch to the smaller 2. If that happens the economic dynamics change massively, internal competition is the last thing that Tesla needs.

 

So, this will either be unbelievably good for Tesla or it will be the product sees Teslas profits begin  level out at VW / Toyota amounts. Mind you, replacing a ton of your competitors’ sales could be more life changing to their companies….

 

Sorry, not well today, I hope you can sift through my post and see the thought process..

 

22 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

Their stated goals indicate they are the good guys, whether you like Musk or not or even agree with how he thinks he's helping, the "master plan" lays out the goal to convert the world to sustainable auto and they've met or exceeded every goal they stated. Whether you believe it's for the good of humanity or a money grab is on the person watching or reading, I've watched enough of Musk to believe him but I understand if you don't.. and even if you don't Tesla has laid out the blueprint on how to do it and make money for "legacy auto". Either way, I personally believe they are the good guys, but even if they aren't they're still doing it better than Ford on the BEV design and manufacturing end.

Model 2 I'm skeptical about after waiting 4 years for the cybertruck to cost twice as much and have half the range promised with 3k lbs less towing. Holding a reservation for cybertruck, but been looking at the lightning lately and it seems like a better truck right now.

 

Apparently Tesla has put out "project Redwood" to suppliers for quotes - I'm assuming it's the Model "2".

 

With how accurate Tesla's debut timelines are, though, we'll see it this year, and it'll be on roads in 2030...

 

8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

If you think about it, the Focus Active was about as far as Ford wanted to go with a Focus crossover.

Jacking up the ride height a tad and those plastic wheel arches was the limit without impinging on Escape.

 

I agree with you in that Ford should have done more to counter the competition but it looked like

their hearts weren’t really in it which is sad because there was a lot of potential there…

 

Maybe the Puma was also thee but probably the preferred small utility?
Ford seems to force an either/or choice instead of both options…

 

 

I still think Puma would've been a good addition to the lineup, and may have been able to command slightly higher prices than competitors because it had some style to it.

Edited January 24 by rmc523

[jpd80]

8 hours ago, AM222 said:

Instead of killing the Focus, maybe Ford should evolve the range into something like a Focus Active but with better integrated SUV styling cues. Something a tad taller and more muscular.

If you think about it, the new C-segment Chevy Trax is essentially a crossover replacement for the Cruze. 
 

Focus was basically replaced by Puma, an enlarged subcompact utility

 

That’s the thing, today’s enlarged subcompact has now basically replaced the original smallish compact

which has now become more like a small compact vehicle….its hard for consumers to keep up…

Edited January 24 by jpd80

[ice-capades]

57 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Focus was basically replaced by Puma, an enlarged subcompact utility

 

That’s the thing, today’s enlarged subcompact has now basically replaced the original smallish compact

which has now become more like a small compact vehicle….its hard for consumers to keep up…

 

I'd bet that if you could take a survey of sales representatives, other than the real die-hard enthusiasts that view particular Ford related media sites and/or message boards, that few would know what a Puma is. They might know what the Kuga is because of the Escape relation, but not the Puma. Sales representatives are too consumed with the immediate need to sell and deliver vehicles from stock, or retail customer ordered vehicles and complying with dealership practices and policies plus Ford mandated training and other requirements, etc.

 

As for customers having a hard time keeping up... the same applies to dealership staff.   

 

[AM222]

14 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Focus was basically replaced by Puma, an enlarged subcompact utility

At 164.9in long, the subcompact Puma is still noticeably smaller than the Focus hatchback and over a foot shorter than the new C-segment Trax. Aside from the added ground clearance, the Puma is basically a Fiesta with a (much needed) 3.8in longer wheelbase. 

In Developing markets, GM sells the subcompact Chevy Tracker, it's roughly the same size as the old B-segment Trax.


 

14 hours ago, jpd80 said:

That’s the thing, today’s enlarged subcompact has now basically replaced the original smallish compact

which has now become more like a small compact vehicle….its hard for consumers to keep up…

This is true, particularly in the US-Canadian markets. Where the larger more car-like C-segment crossovers are starting to replace B-segment crossovers as the smallest models in the lineup. B-segment Crossovers continue to be sold elsewhere. For example: the new Civic-based C-segment Honda HR-V crossover sold in the US is actually the new ZR-V in other markets, the real HR-V is still a B-segment crossover and is roughly the same size as the previous one. The Corolla-based C-segment Corolla Cross is the smallest Toyota crossover in the US today, but elsewhere there's the small B-segment Yaris Cross (in fact, there are two versions of the subcompact CUV depending on the region).

C-segment US market 2024 Honda HR-V aka ZR-V in other markets

Length x width x height: 179.8in x 72.4in x 63.4in

New B-segment Honda HR-V for most other markets

Length x width x height: 170.5in x 70.5in x 62.6in

Edited January 25 by AM222

[Rick73]

On 1/24/2024 at 12:46 PM, rmc523 said:

Apparently Tesla has put out "project Redwood" to suppliers for quotes - I'm assuming it's the Model "2".

 

With how accurate Tesla's debut timelines are, though, we'll see it this year, and it'll be on roads in 2030...

 

Call with investors stated current schedule is to start second half of 2025, but Musk also said part of reason to move initial manufacturing to Texas was because assembly process is so different that engineers will be living on the assembly line.  I’d bet estimated volume of 10,000 per week won’t be achieved until 2026 or later, if ever in Texas.

 

Model 2 Redwood was described as a compact crossover, meaning it can still be a smaller version of Model Y.  Reports stated Tesla disassembled and studied a Civic to learn how Honda can build a quality car under $25k.  This also suggests to me that Redwood may be close in size to a Honda Civic.  IMO that’s the size BEV Tesla and buyers need most initially in order to get costs down as much as possible while still being large enough to be taken seriously and considered by large group of buyers.

[Captainp4]

28 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

 

Call with investors stated current schedule is to start second half of 2025, but Musk also said part of reason to move initial manufacturing to Texas was because assembly process is so different that engineers will be living on the assembly line.  I’d bet estimated volume of 10,000 per week won’t be achieved until 2026 or later, if ever in Texas.

 

Model 2 Redwood was described as a compact crossover, meaning it can still be a smaller version of Model Y.  Reports stated Tesla disassembled and studied a Civic to learn how Honda can build a quality car under $25k.  This also suggests to me that Redwood may be close in size to a Honda Civic.  IMO that’s the size BEV Tesla and buyers need most initially in order to get costs down as much as possible while still being large enough to be taken seriously and considered by large group of buyers.

The market did not like that call ?

Musk really needs to work on distinguishing between internal optimistic timelines and what he tells the public too, Elon Time is rarely accurate. Still waiting on the next starship launch in "3-4 weeks" since November

[jpd80]

14 hours ago, AM222 said:

At 164.9in long, the subcompact Puma is still noticeably smaller than the Focus hatchback and over a foot shorter than the new C-segment Trax. Aside from the added ground clearance, the Puma is basically a Fiesta with a (much needed) 3.8in longer wheelbase. 

In Developing markets, GM sells the subcompact Chevy Tracker, it's roughly the same size as the old B-segment Trax.


 

This is true, particularly in the US-Canadian markets. Where the larger more car-like C-segment crossovers are starting to replace B-segment crossovers as the smallest models in the lineup. B-segment Crossovers continue to be sold elsewhere. For example: the new Civic-based C-segment Honda HR-V crossover sold in the US is actually the new ZR-V in other markets, the real HR-V is still a B-segment crossover and is roughly the same size as the previous one. The Corolla-based C-segment Corolla Cross is the smallest Toyota crossover in the US today, but elsewhere there's the small B-segment Yaris Cross (in fact, there are two versions of the subcompact CUV depending on the region).

C-segment US market 2024 Honda HR-V aka ZR-V in other markets

Length x width x height: 179.8in x 72.4in x 63.4in

New B-segment Honda HR-V for most other markets

Length x width x height: 170.5in x 70.5in x 62.6in

Thinking about what you’ve sad regarding sizing of current compact utilities and crossovers ( very important),

it might be wise for Tesla to make the 2 closer to ID 4 compact size or approx. 180” long x 72.9” wide..

That in turn makes the 2 significantly smaller than the Y but not much less than the 3,  would that be a 

problem or justification to maintain the proposed pricing against competition?

 

I now understand what you and Rick73 have been saying about sizing,

If musk intends to maintain profits, the 2 needs to be big enough to justify any premium pricing but not

so big that it competes with Tesla 3 above, but a true subcompact utility size like ID 3 may not be wise….

 

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

The market did not like that call ?

No, not at all, and for good reason.  Market knows how important a more affordable BEV is to Tesla to support growth, and wanted it much sooner.  IMO, as stated before, prioritizing Cybertruck over Model 2 was a huge mistake.  Musk mentioned Cybertruck sales could be as high as 250,000 if I recall correctly, but I doubt it will be that high given price and radical appearance.

[fuzzymoomoo]

On 1/24/2024 at 12:14 PM, DeluxeStang said:

 

Guys , this is basically what the maverick is. Sure, some people need an enclosed cargo area, but that's what camper shells are for. 

Ive seen a couple of Mavericks with camper tops on them. It doesn’t look that bad. 

[mackinaw]

4 hours ago, Rick73 said:

..... Musk mentioned Cybertruck sales could be as high as 250,000 if I recall correctly, but I doubt it will be that high given price and radical appearance.

 

Morgan Stanley estimates that Tesla will only sell 50,000 Cybertrucks/year.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/656606/morgan-stanley-cybertruck-low-volume-prediction/

[Rick73]

13 hours ago, mackinaw said:

 

Morgan Stanley estimates that Tesla will only sell 50,000 Cybertrucks/year.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/656606/morgan-stanley-cybertruck-low-volume-prediction/

That was from nearly a year ago, and I’m not sure if new Cybertruck price had been released at that time.  I wonder what they estimate presently.

 

Just read article claiming Tesla Model Y beat Toyota RAV4 and Corolla to become best selling vehicle globally.  With that level of success, I would be surprised if Model 2 Redwood is much different than a smaller version of Model Y.  Seems least risky versus trying another radical design like Cybertruck.
 

 

https://driving.ca/auto-news/industry/teslas-model-y-world-best-selling-vehicle-2023

[mackinaw]

31 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

That was from nearly a year ago, and I’m not sure if new Cybertruck price had been released at that time.  I wonder what they estimate presently.....

 

Actually 50,000 Cybertrucks/year is too high.  Because of battery difficulties, it's closer to 25,000 units/year.  As Elon puts it, "we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck."

 

https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles/heres-the-major-production-problem-limiting-teslas-cybertruck-scalability

[Deanh]

35 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

 

Actually 50,000 Cybertrucks/year is too high.  Because of battery difficulties, it's closer to 25,000 units/year.  As Elon puts it, "we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck."

 

https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles/heres-the-major-production-problem-limiting-teslas-cybertruck-scalability

I literally saw one a few days ago, had an Olive Green wrap on it and unsurprizingly the driver was driving like a complete a-hole. Polarizing for sure, not my cup of tea, and Im wondering about the stylings shelf life...its a novelty right now...we will see..

Edited January 26 by Deanh

[akirby]

38 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

 

 As Elon puts it, "we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck."

 

Cue the engineers in unison………. What do you mean “we”?

[Captainp4]

19 hours ago, Rick73 said:

No, not at all, and for good reason.  Market knows how important a more affordable BEV is to Tesla to support growth, and wanted it much sooner.  IMO, as stated before, prioritizing Cybertruck over Model 2 was a huge mistake.  Musk mentioned Cybertruck sales could be as high as 250,000 if I recall correctly, but I doubt it will be that high given price and radical appearance.

Reservations say the demand is there and they're still coming in from what I've heard, but we've all seen how that can be misleading. I personally really like the looks of it after seeing it in person and think the price is fair IF it the things it's good at (speed/handling/tech) are what you're into and only occasionally doing truck things . The more reviews I watch of it though it's clear why F series is the leader in the truck market for people that need a truck for truck things, Cybertruck misses on all the things that make towing/hauling comfortable and convenient. Some of it can change with software down the road, some of it is physical things. Time will tell, but I think they'll sell every one they can make for the foreseeable future. I do have a reservation in but really not liking the reviews I've seen so far as far as "truck things" are concerned, Lightning is looking more and more like a better value for my use case and considering cancelling, but I'm so far down the line it'll be a while before I have to make that choice.

 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Cue the engineers in unison………. What do you mean “we”?

 Correct, it’s all Elon’s vision until things go wrong……

 

I have this feeling about Tesla, until now it’s messaging on vehicles has been easy/pure because 3 and Y 

are overwhelmingly bringing in massive sales and profits……Now, if we think that Tesla is still scratching

the surface, then there’s a ton more sales depth but those have to be significantly different which is why

I understand Cybertruck for North America and the 2 more for China and Europe.

 

Bottom line is this, have many of the Tesla fans already bought their electric vehicle and how many are left?

Is the current pull back in EV sales simply economic and interest rate driven or have BEV buyers got their fill?

Does the market need a big pause while EV owners assess living with a BEV and if they will buy again?

Edited January 26 by jpd80

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

Actually 50,000 Cybertrucks/year is too high.  Because of battery difficulties, it's closer to 25,000 units/year.  As Elon puts it, "we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck."

 

https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles/heres-the-major-production-problem-limiting-teslas-cybertruck-scalability

I only heard a short part of live call with investors, but recall subject of battery capacity being discussed, and if I recall correctly, one of the Tesla executives (did not sound like Musk IIRC) dispelled rumors that 4680 batteries were limiting Cybertruck manufacturing capacity.  I’ll see if I can find more information on this.

If battery capacity is indeed limited, a single Cybertruck battery pack can probably make about three future Model 2s, but profit margin on future compact crossover is likely much less than on Cybertruck.  Just guessing that around $100k per vehicle or higher, sales volume is less sensitive to slight increases to improve margins.  I may be wrong though and Tesla may make more profit on three Model 2s than a single Cybertruck.  In either case, I expect Tesla will price vehicles to make a profit, not just to generate sales at a loss.

[DeluxeStang]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

Cue the engineers in unison………. What do you mean “we”?

I know car engineers usually couldn't care less about exterior styling, but there was a report that came out that some Tesla engineers found the CT so ugly that they tried to put together their own proposal, I'm not joking. 

[Captainp4]

31 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

I know car engineers usually couldn't care less about exterior styling, but there was a report that came out that some Tesla engineers found the CT so ugly that they tried to put together their own proposal, I'm not joking. 

There's a lot of articles that are flat out lies because the in thing to do now is hate Elon Musk because it gets clicks/views. At some point everyone will realize these articles keep happening every time Tesla hit's a temporary wall and that they always blow through it and come out on top of the predictions and naysayers.

[Captainp4]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

 Correct, it’s all Elon’s vision until things go wrong……

 

 

This isn't true either if you read or watch him. He always gives credit to the team, be it SpaceX or Tesla.

[jpd80]

17 minutes ago, Captainp4 said:

This isn't true either if you read or watch him. He always gives credit to the team, be it SpaceX or Tesla.

You’re only seeing the image he wants to project but every now and then you see the person

who gets triggered by the smallest things and goes off the deep end…..”Go F yourself” I mean really?

 

Elon is one of those truly driven people and if you’ve ever been around people like that

you would know that it has to be their vision and their plan even if changes are needed,

there’s a lot of convincing required to justify.

Edited January 26 by jpd80

[Captainp4]

11 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

You’re only seeing the image he wants to project but every now and then you see the person

who gets triggered by the smallest things and goes off the deep end…..”Go F yourself” I mean really?

I mean, I thought that moment was hilarious personally because I've said it to customers I've had enough of and found some validation there, but what's that have to do with the we/us thing?