Ford Sales January 2024 - Up 4.3% Overall

[Dequindre]

23 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Sales numbers doesn't equal profit, just ask GM in 2009 how that worked out for them. 

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/gross-profit#:~:text=Ford Motor gross profit for the twelve months ending September,a 50.71% increase from 2020.

 

 

Not necessarily, but selling vehicles in more segments provides a pipeline of buyers to purchase Ford's more expensive offerings. If Jim Farley's vision for the company is to be implemented, they're going to have to rely on a lot more poaching of buyers from other brands. 

[silvrsvt]

11 minutes ago, Dequindre said:

 

Not necessarily, but selling vehicles in more segments provides a pipeline of buyers to purchase Ford's more expensive offerings. If Jim Farley's vision for the company is to be implemented, they're going to have to rely on a lot more poaching of buyers from other brands. 

 

According to who? Their primary objective is to make roughly 10% profit off each vehicle, not gain huge improvement in market share. 

[tbone]

13 hours ago, CKNSLS said:

I believe we have an affordability crisis coming in regards to trucks especially. Of course this not exclusive to Ford. I bought a slightly used F150 (2020) Lariat over a year ago with 26,000 miles on it at the new factory sticker was $47,000.00.  That same truck is substantially more in 2024. I would like to upgrade-can even afford to do so-but outright refuse to do so at current prices.

 

This current pricing situation-IMHO is not substainable.

I definitely think this is a problem. It does appear they tried to hold the line a bit on the 2025 Explorer, so that’s a good sign they might be recognizing the problem. I was surprised to see them drop prices on the lightning, so, my theory that once prices go up, they never come down maybe incorrect. It would be nice if we would see some price drops on the vehicles people are actually buying. I refuse to buy the bronco models that I was looking at now because they are substantially more than when they were first introduced and I really don’t find the value in it anymore. If it weren’t for all the equity I had built up in my previous raptors (they hold their value exceptionally well ) that I had bought when they were more affordable, I’m not sure I could afford to buy a new Raptor today straight up.  Im fortunate to have a well-paying job, and can afford to buy some higher end vehicles, but the average truck prices,  etc., are really getting out of hand for the median income buyers out there that may be buying these things for work and basic transportation. I find that to be really troublesome.

[akirby]

42 minutes ago, Dequindre said:

 

Not necessarily, but selling vehicles in more segments provides a pipeline of buyers to purchase Ford's more expensive offerings. If Jim Farley's vision for the company is to be implemented, they're going to have to rely on a lot more poaching of buyers from other brands. 

Popular theory but great products bring buyers period.  And while market share has declined slightly the cheap products were replaced by more expensive models so revenue is the same.  And if they weren’t still facing some supply chain issues both market share and revenue would be even higher.

[DeluxeStang]

4 hours ago, Rick73 said:

For years I heard Toyota and Honda were best built cars — for the money of course.  I’ve never owned a Toyota, but have owned a few Honda.  Being a sample of one owner I can only say I was pleased with Honda ownership.  Ford vehicles were OK too.  However, the biggest difference in my opinion is not supported with data showing defects or recalls per 1,000, but rather how issues were handled by dealers.  Maybe I was just unlucky, but dealing with Ford was a horrible experience I would never want to repeat, while Honda professionalism was great.

While I enjoy discussing this, this will probably be the last time I mention it, just so we don't get too off topic. But my family has had a truly terrible experience with Hondas. The difference between our Ford's and Hondas has, and I'm not being hyperbolic, is cars lasting over a decade with little issues, compared to a car that couldn't even last two days before the engine destroying itself. One of my closest friends has a newer civic, around 2013, and it's genuinely having more issues and is in far worse condition than most of the Ford's my family owns from the 90s and early 2000s. It's one of those cars where everything, literally everything, is failing on it, and it only has about 80k miles on it. His brother has basically an identical civic, and it's a similar story there. 

 

But my point in, I always hear how terrible Ford's are, how bad their quality is, how unreliable they are. Yet most of the real world Ford owners I talk to love their cars, and aren't experiencing any issues. You see more old Ford's still running and driving than you do for just about any other brand, and they have one of the highest owner loyalty levels in the industry. It seems to be Ford's are a lot better built than people give them credit. Ford issues a lot of recalls, but so many of them are minor, trivial things that other brands just ignore. 

[mackinaw]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

And if they weren’t still facing some supply chain issues both market share and revenue would be even higher.

 

And they're still facing parts shortages.  I read that both F-series plants were down for 5-6 days in January, due to supply chain issues.  

 

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2024/02/02/ford-shut-f150-production-layoffs-dearborn-kansas-city/72440430007/

[jpd80]

13 hours ago, mustang84isu said:

The Fusion and Focus generated a lot of buzz when they came out, especially the 2013 Fusion.  But in typical Ford fashion, they let things rot on the vine and then claim it was lack of demand that killed it instead of Ford's own lack of investment into that product or nameplate.  The 2017 Fusion refresh was weak and barely on anyone's radar, and it is not much of a surprise that sales went from 300K only a couple years earlier to 200K in 2017, then 173K in 2018, and then off the cliff when rumors about the Fusion's demise started to leak.

 

Ford's market share is actually down from where it was in 2015, 2016, and 2017.  It was almost 15% in 2017, dropped to 12.9% in 2022, and we don't have full figures yet for 2023 but in Q3 in was 12.8%.  How much of that lost market share was ceded to other manufacturers by axing sedans and not having a more diverse lineup?

Ford's profits are up quite a bit since covid, but they are still down from where they were in 2015, 16, and 17.  Gross profit in 2022 was $23 million, but in 2015-16-17 it was over $25 million and go back to 2013 and it was approaching $27 million.  I think offerings like Ford Pro are bringing a new revenue stream that will help Ford with more consistent profitability, but I worry Ford has backed itself into a corner on products by focusing only on what is popular at the moment and won't be able to react to changing trends when the tide inevitably shifts again.  Look at how popular SUV's were in 2000, and then how popular sedans were only 10 years later, and then back to SUV's in 2020.  The difference in 2000 and 2010 was that Ford had a diverse lineup that could quickly react to changes, and not having a single sedan to sell seems foolish in this high interest rate environment.  Sedan sales for the Japanese three have stabilized, and Honda's new Accord was actually up almost 30% in 2023.  The Chevy Malibu was up 13% despite being pretty outdated.  Q1 2023 was the first time sedans had seen market share gain in the US since 2002 apparently, per Automotive News.  Seems like a mistake for Ford not to being participating at all.
 

In recent years, Ford has been concentrating on increasing profit as a percentage of revenue, so it’s easy to see how and why the vehicle cuts are being made. I noticed that since about  2015, Ford’s pretax profit has remained static at around $10 billion but the number of sales is now a lot less…..many of those discarded vehicles barley made any profit over covering development and manufacturing costs. 

For me, the big wake up call was 2011 when Ford culled three of its BOF vehicles, Ranger, Panther (Crown Victoria/Town Car) and BOF Explorer. Two of the three platforms were replaced by existing D3 products, Taurus and FWD/AWD Explorer. Ranger had become low cost transport, so its loss was replaced by sales of Fiesta or Focus. Either way, Ford pocketed a huge recurring savings by closing down three plants and not renewing those vehicle platforms.

 

It’s sad to see many Ford vehicles end but I guess the reality of making vehicles for dealers to service and sell parts is all part and parcel of that. It’s kind of a massive ripple effect going on, first the vehicles go then the question gets asked as to why we still have so many dealerships…..Ford shrinking its business and discarding things it doesn’t need?
 

 

Edited February 4 by jpd80

[CKNSLS]

18 hours ago, jpd80 said:

With regards to your post, the affordability crisis you speak of has been in play for the last decade

but we used to call it sticker shock. Absolutely, Ford and other carmakers are testing the market 

with higher and higher prices either by cutting the base entry trim level or adding compulsory equipment.

 

In the past, buyers would just hold firm until automakers relented and started offering cash incentives

but these days inventory of F Series is about a 100k less than in the twenty teens so I think they have

discount buyer trapped with mirage discounts on already inflated MSRPs. Let alone dealer markups.

However, a quieter few months May chasten the chiefs into offering some incentives just to keep

things moving, Ford in particular needs F Series sales to stay strong and not start sputtering.

I would agree a $5,000 .00 discount from MSRP doesn't move the needle on a truck that has gone up $12,000.00 plus.

[jpd80]

17 minutes ago, CKNSLS said:

I would agree a $5,000 .00 discount from MSRP doesn't move the needle on a truck that has gone up $12,000.00 plus.

Correct, the cynical part of me thinks that any future cash incentive is already “built into”  that current higher pricing, sure they may not sell as many anymore but the return is better and doesn’t get eroded by end of model incentives.

 

Don't get me wrong, there’s still a lot of dysfunction and waste within corporates like Ford but when you think about it, the whole thing is a license to print money…..if run at least half right.

Edited February 4 by jpd80

[Oac98]

On 2/2/2024 at 11:59 PM, tbone said:

I understand your concerns and they’re valid. There is a serious amount of uncertainty in the BEV market. Is anyone asking if BEVs are the right solution to decrease emissions? I’m not pretending to suggest there is a better alternative yet, just wondering really. Ultimately these two Ford vehicles, which are nicely appointed attractive vehicles, are not selling due to perceived, or real range deficiencies, and perhaps some cost issues. .  Unless there is some miraculous change in battery technology in the VERY near future, I don’t see how the situation improves.  

I don’t see how it improves either hence the reason I’m skeptical. 

[Oac98]

On 2/2/2024 at 8:10 PM, DeluxeStang said:

I hope we still get a second gen mach-e at this point. The issue with the mach-e and the lightning is they were both impressive products initially. But as the years have gone on, and we've seen the arrival of new aspirational EVs from other brands, it becomes pretty clear where Ford took shortcuts to get their EVs out first. 

 

When your mustang branded sporty EV is losing to basically everything it races against, it's not a good look, especially when your EV is one of the only ones tied to the heritage of your most famous sports car. Lot of performance limitations with that platform. Fingers crossed a second gen mach-e designed from the beginning to be a performance vehicle won't have those issues. 

Jim Farley is saying how great the second generation EVs are gonna be so in addition to the next generation Mach E and all the other upcoming products I expect them to be vastly improved over the current products. 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, Oacjay98 said:

Jim Farley is saying how great the second generation EVs are gonna be so in addition to the next generation Mach E and all the other upcoming products I expect them to be vastly improved over the current products. 

Yes and that plant’s vehicle wider like a Tesla X, CD6 Explorer size even if a bit swooping, would be great if the

next Gen MME was a short wheelbase vehicle on the same platform, it and the Lincoln all built at OAC for the win.

 

Price probably important here,  competing head on with Tesla is too hard but offer more car for similar price?

 

 

[Oac98]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Yes and that plant’s vehicle wider like a Tesla X, CD6 Explorer size even if a bit swooping, would be great if the

next Gen MME was a short wheelbase vehicle on the same platform, it and the Lincoln all built at OAC for the win.

 

Price probably important here,  competing head on with Tesla is too hard but offer more car for similar price?

 

 

The next gen Mach- E will be much better, it has to be! 

[jpd80]

14 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

The next gen Mach- E will be much better, it has to be! 

While sales of most vehicles appear to be down at the moment, I think the issue with

Mustang Mach E is that for most buyers,  there’s no compelling reason to want one.

 

No disrespect to the vehicle but it seems that Ford has thrown everything at Mach E

to make it desirable to buyers and still, the market seems indifferent.

 

So I’m stuck, does the  problem lie with the vehicle or are buyers just not that into BEVs

or is it a bit of both?

Edited February 5 by jpd80

[Captainp4]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

While sales of most vehicles appear to be down at the moment, I think the issue with

Mustang Mach E is that for most buyers,  there’s no compelling reason to want one.

 

No disrespect to the vehicle but it seems that Ford has thrown everything at Mach E

to make it desirable to buyers and still, the market seems indifferent.

 

So I’m stuck, does the  problem lie with the vehicle or are buyers just not that into BEVs

or is it a bit of both?

At the Mach E vs Model Y level, the Ford just doesn't offer enough for someone to choose it over the Tesla and pay more for it unless they're a die hard Ford person or have an irrational hatred for Elon Musk. It almost matches most things, but falls a little short.. but who in their right mind would objectively pick it over the guys that have been doing it way longer when it's not substantially better in any category and pay more. If you're the new guy on the block and want to make things happen you need to leapfrog substantially to get someone's attention.  It's like when Toyota/Nissan started getting into the half ton market. Ford is dipping their toes in but doesn't seem like they're fully committed. And I'd say the same about cybertruck compared to lightning - Tesla isn't fully committed to figuring out a truck buyer. IMO anyway. Hopefully we see some big improvements with the next gen of BEV out of Ford.

[rmc523]

On 2/4/2024 at 10:06 AM, tbone said:

I definitely think this is a problem. It does appear they tried to hold the line a bit on the 2025 Explorer, so that’s a good sign they might be recognizing the problem. I was surprised to see them drop prices on the lightning, so, my theory that once prices go up, they never come down maybe incorrect. It would be nice if we would see some price drops on the vehicles people are actually buying. I refuse to buy the bronco models that I was looking at now because they are substantially more than when they were first introduced and I really don’t find the value in it anymore. If it weren’t for all the equity I had built up in my previous raptors (they hold their value exceptionally well ) that I had bought when they were more affordable, I’m not sure I could afford to buy a new Raptor today straight up.  Im fortunate to have a well-paying job, and can afford to buy some higher end vehicles, but the average truck prices,  etc., are really getting out of hand for the median income buyers out there that may be buying these things for work and basic transportation. I find that to be really troublesome.

 

The same trim Bronco that I have - Wildtrak - is now 8k more than what I paid out the door.  Out the door I think I was around $62k or so just 2 years ago now - Ford's B&P now has my same model/options at $70,275.  The only thing that has changed on them is the HOSS 3.0 suspension, which isn't 8k worth of stuff, not including the additional taxes etc.  The increases are crazy.

 

17 minutes ago, Captainp4 said:

At the Mach E vs Model Y level, the Ford just doesn't offer enough for someone to choose it over the Tesla and pay more for it unless they're a die hard Ford person or have an irrational hatred for Elon Musk. It almost matches most things, but falls a little short.. but who in their right mind would objectively pick it over the guys that have been doing it way longer when it's not substantially better in any category and pay more. If you're the new guy on the block and want to make things happen you need to leapfrog substantially to get someone's attention.  It's like when Toyota/Nissan started getting into the half ton market. Ford is dipping their toes in but doesn't seem like they're fully committed. And I'd say the same about cybertruck compared to lightning - Tesla isn't fully committed to figuring out a truck buyer. IMO anyway. Hopefully we see some big improvements with the next gen of BEV out of Ford.

 

I think unfortunately, we have to remember MME is sort of a stopgap product as Ford gets its long-term BEV plans figured out.  Remember it was a re-bodied "E-Max" or whatever it was called.

Let's really hope the 2nd gen is a big step up.

[Oac98]

10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

While sales of most vehicles appear to be down at the moment, I think the issue with

Mustang Mach E is that for most buyers,  there’s no compelling reason to want one.

 

No disrespect to the vehicle but it seems that Ford has thrown everything at Mach E

to make it desirable to buyers and still, the market seems indifferent.

 

So I’m stuck, does the  problem lie with the vehicle or are buyers just not that into BEVs

or is it a bit of both?

I agree with you and to me it’s too expensive. Jim Farley says the Mach E is way better than the Edge. Maybe it is but the sales sure don’t reflect that. The mach e looks sharp, it’s too bad it has been a bit of a failure so far. 

[DeluxeStang]

35 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

I agree with you and to me it’s too expensive. Jim Farley says the Mach E is way better than the Edge. Maybe it is but the sales sure don’t reflect that. The mach e looks sharp, it’s too bad it has been a bit of a failure so far. 

To be fair, the mach-e is one of the best selling non Tesla EVs, Ford has sold hundreds of thousands of them over the years. So while it's not a runaway smashing success, I wouldn't call it a failure either. 

 

As you stated, the key is to get costs down in a sustainable matter, and improve on what customers already like. Making more desirable products at a lower price, that's a tall order. But it can be done with you have an great series of platforms.

 

Ford's upcoming dedicated EV platforms are apparently next level. If Ford's next gen EVs on those platforms can come in at a noticably lower price, while being even more aspirational, they're gonna sell incredibly well, especially as EVs gradually become more acceptable to mainstream audiences. 

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

To be fair, the mach-e is one of the best selling non Tesla EVs, Ford has sold hundreds of thousands of them over the years. So while it's not a runaway smashing success, I wouldn't call it a failure either. 

The concern is that by the end of 2022, Ford had produced just over 150,000 Mach Es but by the end of last year, it had only added another 78,000, so sales definitely hitting the skids much quicker than Ford had hoped (they were anticipating a 210k run rate).

 

Quote

As you stated, the key is to get costs down in a sustainable matter, and improve on what customers already like. Making more desirable products at a lower price, that's a tall order. But it can be done with you have an great series of platforms.

 

Ford's upcoming dedicated EV platforms are apparently next level. If Ford's next gen EVs on those platforms can come in at a noticably lower price, while being even more aspirational, they're gonna sell incredibly well, especially as EVs gradually become more acceptable to mainstream audiences. 

The new GE2 was developed to reduce those costs and build a more versatile architecture,

adding new batteries, motors and controller should significantly reduce those costs.

Edited February 6 by jpd80

[DeluxeStang]

9 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The concern is that by the end of 2022, Ford had produced just over 150,000 Mach Es but by the end of last year, it had only added another 78,000, so sales definitely hitting the skids much quicker than Ford had hoped (they were anticipating a 210k run rate).

 

The new GE2 was developed to reduce those costs and build a more versatile architecture,

adding new batteries, motors and controller should significantly reduce those costs.

Excellent, the current mach-e starts at about 43k. If gen 2 can come in at around 40 maybe even a little under, while addressing the complaints current mach-e owners have, it's gonna be a winner. 

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

Excellent, the current mach-e starts at about 43k. If gen 2 can come in at around 40 maybe even a little under, while addressing the complaints current mach-e owners have, it's gonna be a winner. 

itll be some timebefore all the issues get adressed, Id say minimum 5 years...and price , whilst important..is the least of the issues...

[Deanh]

On 2/4/2024 at 6:29 PM, Oacjay98 said:

Jim Farley is saying how great the second generation EVs are gonna be so in addition to the next generation Mach E and all the other upcoming products I expect them to be vastly improved over the current products. 

..........sincerely...what would you EXPECT Farley to say...." Yep...we kinda got over excited and jumped the gun, the second iteration is substantially better so lets hope that that alleviates the publics apprehension...."

Edited February 6 by Deanh

[Gurgeh]

Ford stock has been surging in after hours trading. Big surprise on the upside in 4th quarter profits announced after the bell. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/ford-f-q4-2023-earnings.html

 

 

"KEY POINTS

- Ford beat Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations for the fourth quarter while forecasting better-than-expected results for 2024.

- The company’s forecast for 2024 includes adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $10 billion and $12 billion.

- The automaker also announced a special dividend of 18 cents per share in addition to a first-quarter regular dividend of 15 cents per share."

Edited February 6 by Gurgeh

[rmc523]

Finally got around to making the green/red charts for January 2024:

 

[Oac98]

10 hours ago, Deanh said:

..........sincerely...what would you EXPECT Farley to say...." Yep...we kinda got over excited and jumped the gun, the second iteration is substantially better so let’s hope that that alleviates the publics apprehension...."

I get what you’re saying and agree he has to sell and promote these products as best he can. I agree he’s obviously not gonna say anything stupid.

Edited February 7 by Oacjay98