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North American Automotive Production Forecast till 2025


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Someone on another board thinks the 2021 Mustang moves to the CD6 (or D6) platform, which probably means it will be a larger car. The next generation Mustang may have to be hybrid to meet CAFE and need to be slightly larger to fit the hybrid motor.

 

I've been saying that for months - Mustang moving to CD6. But I don't think it has to be bigger.

 

Mustang is virtually the same width as Fusion but 5 inches shorter wheelbase.

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Also, the EB Mustang, official economy figures are line ball wit Camaro 2.0T even though that car is slightly lighter and has an 8-speed auto.

The EB Mustang has a great balance between performance and fuel economy, it gives those buyers exactly what they want.

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In 4 years Ford will have a brand new Ecosport, Escape, Expedition, Navigator, Explorer and Aviator. And we think Expy/Navi will get loominum and Explorer/Aviator goes to RWD/AWD.

 

Which other mfrs do you think will have that many new utilities at that time?

 

 

Well I would guess GM and Toyota will continue to put out new or revised product. No one is standing still or you are dead.

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Just took a quick look at the dates on this and it references June 2015. I know fuel was cheap then but this was not put together in a few weeks. My assumption is this is a strategic plan with a lot of variables. Outside of the next 24-48 months I would guess every thing else is in play.

 

And this indicates production-not sales in North America.

FYI-I did not read thru this so I may have missed some key notes mentioned.

Edited by kyle
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Looking at Chevrolet Trax starting price at $20,300, that's around $3,000 less than Escape

I wonder how many Focus sales would be displaced by a good subcompact Utility,

that would still be good business considering the ATPs would be around $5K better.

 

Would that in turn open up an opportunity to better position cars for Nth America?

The advantage of that sort of plan would be two fold,

- lower cost platform

- reduction in weight.

Edited by jpd80
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Well I would guess GM and Toyota will continue to put out new or revised product. No one is standing still or you are dead.

 

GM is pretty close to Ford with new utilities. But Toyota? Which new utilities have they introduced recently other than RAV4? Toyota is smart and they get maximum return with minimal effort. They're doing very few all new platforms or vehicles.

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This a little off this topic, but still a production question. It takes 21.5 hours to produce a vehicle at Hermosillo, how many cars are on the line at the same time? How many does the plant put out the door per day/week. And finally, where's my 2017 Fusion??

Hermosillo works three shifts six days a week. Going on last year's production,

I estimate around 1200 per day and of that, around 120 are MKZ.

 

I think I read that 2017 Fusion arrives in the fall, September?

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2017 fusion production hasn't started yet

I know, Job1 is 4/4/16. That last question was tongue in cheek.

 

Hermosillo works three shifts six days a week. Going on last year's production,

I estimate around 1200 per day and of that, around 120 are MKZ.

 

I think I read that 2017 Fusion arrives in the fall, September?

Wow, that many daily, I had no idea the plant was that efficient. I ordered mine on Tuesday, they put their orders in on Tuesday and Thursday, so it went in that day and the salesman estimated it could arrive early to mid June. Just a guess, but I hope it's sooner than that because I ordered fairly early. For the sake of my impatience, let's say,1000 a day are produced, five hundred go for testing, Ford execs/employees, safety testing and across the country 2000 pre orders went in before mine. If from what I've read on the forum, retail orders with a high priority code (I was told mine will be 10) are filled before dealer stock, so I might see mine in mid to late May, at least that's my hope.

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I know, Job1 is 4/4/16. That last question was tongue in cheek.

 

Wow, that many daily, I had no idea the plant was that efficient. I ordered mine on Tuesday, they put their orders in on Tuesday and Thursday, so it went in that day and the salesman estimated it could arrive early to mid June. Just a guess, but I hope it's sooner than that because I ordered fairly early. For the sake of my impatience, let's say,1000 a day are produced, five hundred go for testing, Ford execs/employees, safety testing and across the country 2000 pre orders went in before mine. If from what I've read on the forum, retail orders with a high priority code (I was told mine will be 10) are filled before dealer stock, so I might see mine in mid to late May, at least that's my hope.

Whoops, I think I quoted 2017 MKZ instead of Fusion.

While dealer stock may have priority at model change, I think dealers will be working through selling

discounted / incentivized 2016 stock so fingers crossed, you may be in luck for an early delivery..

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More likely that C484 is a short Focus not a longer Fiesta.

 

B platform may be ROW only with short and long C for NA. More commonality, easier factory sharing, etc.

 

I'll ask this question:

 

If the fiesta currently has one of the highest if not the highest ASP in its class and its one the best selling B-vehicles in the US, why go and mess up this successful formula by turning it into a Versa?

Will this new Cheap focus have a hatchback available?

Why can Honda offer a compelling B-car globally and Ford cannot?

 

 

 

 

Well I would guess GM and Toyota will continue to put out new or revised product. No one is standing still or you are dead.

 

And they will do so at much faster rate than Ford, so those "new" ford SUV's could be facing 2nd generation GM and Toyota products soon after launch.

 

has anyone ever thought that Ford's launch qulaity issues are due tothe fact their product cycles are so long? it is difficult to master new product launches if you do them so infrequently.

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Who said it would be cheap? It's all about platform sharing. Easier to build multiple vehicles on the same platform in one plant.

 

Also Ford believes there is more profit and sales in utilities than sedans or hatchbacks.

 

Fiesta could still be imported if necessary.

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Who said it would be cheap? It's all about platform sharing. Easier to build multiple vehicles on the same platform in one plant.

It would be cheap, becuase AFAIK it will be sloted beneath the Focus, and replace the fiesta, right? if not who expect a vheicle designed to be cheaper than the Focus to not be "cheap"

 

Also Ford believes there is more profit and sales in utilities than sedans or hatchbacks.

 

So the response is to stop investing in quality sedans and hatchbacks? sounds like 1999 all over again.

 

Also what is taking the EcoSport so long to get here?

 

 

Fiesta could still be imported if necessary.

 

Ford's ability to react to changes in the market seems to be rather weak, as demonstrated by the EcoSport and the Ranger. they just don't nimble enough to be able to import the Fiesta without years of lead time before hand.

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The Fit is really efficient in terms of packaging. I've wondered if the B-Max wouldn't have been a better competitor, though I'm not sure if the rear doors would help or hurt it.

 

rememeber the Fiesta still outsells or almost outsells the fit every month, with near class leading ASPs, what truly represents success in the B-segment if the fiesta isn't it?

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So the response is to stop investing in quality sedans and hatchbacks? sounds like 1999 all over again.

 

Also what is taking the EcoSport so long to get here?

 

 

 

Ford's ability to react to changes in the market seems to be rather weak, as demonstrated by the EcoSport and the Ranger. they just don't nimble enough to be able to import the Fiesta without years of lead time before hand.

Who said they are no longer going to invest in quality sedans?

 

You do realize that Ford is still recovering from the worst recession in 70 years and from closing plants and laying off workers just to survive, right? It has taken a long time to recover from that and pay off many billions in debt. They are just now becoming a bit more flexible.

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And they will do so at much faster rate than Ford, so those "new" ford SUV's could be facing 2nd generation GM and Toyota products soon after launch.


You mean like the 10 year old Acadia? Or the 9 year old Enclave (will be 10 by the time it's replaced)? Or the 8 year old Traverse (will be at least 9 when its replaced)?

Yeah, so much faster at replacing models than Ford....

 

The new products simply have not aligned with platform changes, or plant issues. (see below)

 

It would be cheap, becuase AFAIK it will be sloted beneath the Focus, and replace the fiesta, right? if not who expect a vheicle designed to be cheaper than the Focus to not be "cheap"

 

So the response is to stop investing in quality sedans and hatchbacks? sounds like 1999 all over again.

 

Also what is taking the EcoSport so long to get here?

 

 

 

Ford's ability to react to changes in the market seems to be rather weak, as demonstrated by the EcoSport and the Ranger. they just don't nimble enough to be able to import the Fiesta without years of lead time before hand.

 

Where has Ford or anyone ever said or indicated they're not going to invest in sedans and hatchbacks? You realize Focus is about to be replaced too right? With a new platform...I have 0 reason to believe a hatch and sedan will be offered.

 

EcoSport is a compromised, now "last-gen" product for our market, and has done poorly in the European market...why would it do better here? You think they should launch that here now to sour its reputation for a couple of years before a proper replacement is here? At this point, it's easier (and better, IMO) for them to just wait and launch a new product that is more align with US needs. My guess is that our new "EcoSport" will share a platform with the "baby" Focus/Fiesta replacement, while global Fiesta/EcoSport could stay the same (with redesigns, of course) for markets that they work better in (India, for example).

 

As for Ranger, we've already discussed this. There wasn't a plant to build it at, not to mention I don't think we're getting the same Ranger as the rest of the world. GM went midsize trucks and neglected their vans, while Ford prioritized the vans and stayed out of the midsize truck market for now. So far, it's worked out for both.

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I was talking about utilities, not cars. I think the new Ecosport for NA will be larger and will be built on a shortened C platform which makes it easy to share the mexican factory with Focus and Escape. With those 3 vehicles I don't see room for any B vehicles. If there is maybe they'll keep Fiesta cars or maybe they can import them.

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And they will do so at much faster rate than Ford, so those "new" ford SUV's could be facing 2nd generation GM and Toyota products soon after launch.

 

 

You mean like the 10 year old Acadia? Or the 9 year old Enclave (will be 10 by the time it's replaced)? Or the 8 year old Traverse (will be at least 9 when its replaced)?

 

Yeah, so much faster at replacing models than Ford....

 

The new products simply have not aligned with platform changes, or plant issues. (see below)

 

 

Where has Ford or anyone ever said or indicated they're not going to invest in sedans and hatchbacks? You realize Focus is about to be replaced too right? With a new platform...I have 0 reason to believe a hatch and sedan will be offered.

 

EcoSport is a compromised, now "last-gen" product for our market, and has done poorly in the European market...why would it do better here? You think they should launch that here now to sour its reputation for a couple of years before a proper replacement is here? At this point, it's easier (and better, IMO) for them to just wait and launch a new product that is more align with US needs. My guess is that our new "EcoSport" will share a platform with the "baby" Focus/Fiesta replacement, while global Fiesta/EcoSport could stay the same (with redesigns, of course) for markets that they work better in (India, for example).

 

As for Ranger, we've already discussed this. There wasn't a plant to build it at, not to mention I don't think we're getting the same Ranger as the rest of the world. GM went midsize trucks and neglected their vans, while Ford prioritized the vans and stayed out of the midsize truck market for now. So far, it's worked out for both.

 

The Acadia and Enclave platforms are about to be replaced, Ford still hasn't Decided when D3 will be replaced which is approaching 13 years old. how long with D3 explorer be on the market before its replaced?

 

Facts:

 

The original Ecosport debuted in 2004 as the First subcompact SUV, It invented the segment over 12 years ago.

 

The Ranger: I don't think that a place to put the ranger was an issue, GM didn't make excuses for re-entering the Mid-sized segment why should ford?

 

I was talking about utilities, not cars. I think the new Ecosport for NA will be larger and will be built on a shortened C platform which makes it easy to share the mexican factory with Focus and Escape. With those 3 vehicles I don't see room for any B vehicles. If there is maybe they'll keep Fiesta cars or maybe they can import them.

 

With VW and Toyota They have merged their FWD platforms without the Compromises that you are proposing above.

 

I can't see how selling the Escort here instead of the Fiesta helps elevate the Ford brand.

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Ford still hasn't Decided when D3 will be replaced which is approaching 13 years old. how long with D3 explorer be on the market before its replaced?

 

Ford hasn't decided or Ford just hasn't told you? There is a difference, you know.

 

From what we've seen rumored (as well as some info in the UAW contract), it appears the Explorer will be replaced for the '20 model year. That's 9 years, which is less than the GM versions, so what's the complaint you have? Oh, and technically, it's D4 and not D3.

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