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Harley Lover

Ford to announce Wednesday two dedicated all-electric vehicle platforms, one for full-size trucks and SUVs, the other for cars and crossovers

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

40% is probably pessimistic. Ford of Europe already announced that its car and light truck lineup will be 100% electric by 2030. Other parts of the world are very likely to adopt regulations similar to those in Great Britain and EU, so Ford will ramp up its efforts for all electric vehicle sales everywhere it does business.

 

70% is a more realistic figure for the percentage of new Ford vehicles sold globally that will be all electric by 2030.

It’s best not to conflate plans for Europe with what’s happening in North America, the situational drivers for change are completely different as are the vehicle sets. The next 5-10 years in the US are going to be very exciting for consumers, I think we’ll see more watershed vehicles like Lightning while the ICE side of the business delivers its ultimate vehicles in a last hurrah before the end.....

Edited by jpd80

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Posted (edited)
On 5/26/2021 at 5:54 AM, atomcat68 said:

And if it gets to the market before Cyertruck, it will atomic bomb Tesla.

 

I want both companies, and GM to be extremely successful in their markets! I want the competition between our American auto companies to push each other to constantly innovate and grow, not push it other out of business. 

Edited by Willwll313wll

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9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir. Gurgeh shared a comment from an automotive industry analyst in the F-150 Lightning thread. It makes a lot of sense.

 

 

 

 

Unless Stellantis, Toyota, and Nissan come up with good strategies for BEV pickup truck development and marketing, there's a strong possibility that Ford, GM, and Tesla will take market share away from them in the U.S. in the next 10-15 years as the automotive industry gets closer to its end goal of 100% electric vehicles.

Other than Ram, the full size truck market share of Nissan and Toyota is abysmal.  No real share to be gained there.  Stellantis “the hellcat people” will survive long enough on hemi power to make the transition.  Ford has done the heavy lifting to show them how it is done.

 

Curious as to what the GM anti-lightning campaign will be until they come out with their own eSilverado and eSierra.

GM: “You really do need one last V8 before they are extinct”

Customer: “Fine, I’ll get a hemi.”

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6 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

https://businessjournaldaily.com/ford-electric-vehicles-to-be-40-of-global-sales-by-2030/

 

Ford: Electric Vehicles to Be 40% of Global Sales by 2030

Slightly short of 100%.  Hard to say if that is optimistic or not.  It will depend on the supply chain, government incentives, and infrastructure.  Lots of variables.  Beyond that, acceptance may be slow.  It’s been 40 years since I had read and been told the V8 was dead.  I never would have guessed the small block Chevy would still be around and competitive.

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38 minutes ago, Willwll313wll said:

I want both companies, and GM to be extremely successful in their markets! I want the competition between our American auto companies to push each other to constant innovate and grow, not push it other out of business. 

 

I agree Willwll313wll sir! The Big 3 American automakers of GM, Ford, and Tesla plus the American startups like Rivian and Lordstown Motors are in a good position to be global leaders in an automotive industry that is going all electric. Ford's latest announcement of their new dedicated BEV platforms confirms that they are playing to win in the ongoing industry revolution. 

 

As an American, it would make me very pleased if U.S. auto companies become the "standard of the world" and push the European and Asian companies off the pedestal they are on now. With proper public policy in the U.S., there's a good chance that could happen.

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The rest of the earth is going to go electric whether the USA decides to lead now or follow later.  Europe and China / East Asia will be over 50% by the end of the decade if not sooner.  Ford and GM know this.  It would be suicide not the try to lead in BEV development.  Otherwise in 7 or 8 years, the Europeans and Asians and new players like Tesla will flood the market with BEVs that are superior and cheaper than what Detroit has to offer, ICE or BEV.  It will be like the FWD 4 cylinder revolution of the 1980s all over again.  Its 1978 and car guys are crying for the big powerful V8s of yesterday,  but GM is about to lose the crown of besting selling car (Buick Regal?) forever to FWD 4 bangers from Asia.  Ford is obviously trying not to let that happen to F150.  Either we lead or watch non Detroit companies eat our lunch when they import BEVs from Europe and Asia in 2028 by the millions and non car guys, which is 80% of the market, snap them up!   As someone said we can build both and let people vote with their wallets.  ICE will be there a long time if your willing to pay for one.  (V8 option is already getting outrageously expensive.)  But governments in Europe and Asia will mandate EVs.  Vehicles build for those markets will eventually make their way here.   They may not play in Texas ranch country but they will sell just fine in Houston and Dallas and any big city where 80% of cars sales happen.  Lets reopen this thread in 7 years and see if I was right or wrong...

 

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40 minutes ago, Tico said:

The rest of the earth is going to go electric whether the USA decides to lead now or follow later.  Europe and China / East Asia will be over 50% by the end of the decade if not sooner.  Ford and GM know this.  It would be suicide not the try to lead in BEV development.  Otherwise in 7 or 8 years, the Europeans and Asians and new players like Tesla will flood the market with BEVs that are superior and cheaper than what Detroit has to offer, ICE or BEV.  It will be like the FWD 4 cylinder revolution of the 1980s all over again.  Its 1978 and car guys are crying for the big powerful V8s of yesterday,  but GM is about to lose the crown of besting selling car (Buick Regal?) forever to FWD 4 bangers from Asia.  Ford is obviously trying not to let that happen to F150.  Either we lead or watch non Detroit companies eat our lunch when they import BEVs from Europe and Asia in 2028 by the millions and non car guys, which is 80% of the market, snap them up!   As someone said we can build both and let people vote with their wallets.  ICE will be there a long time if your willing to pay for one.  (V8 option is already getting outrageously expensive.)  But governments in Europe and Asia will mandate EVs.  Vehicles build for those markets will eventually make their way here.   They may not play in Texas ranch country but they will sell just fine in Houston and Dallas and any big city where 80% of cars sales happen.  Lets reopen this thread in 7 years and see if I was right or wrong...

 


You can lead in technology and innovation and have competitive BEVs in all segments and still not have 100% EV sales.  The US market is totally different than any other country.  Just look at full sized pickups.   Our driving habits, roads, population and city density, electrical infrastructure, etc is different.   Government mandates don’t mean anything if I live in an apartment and the nearest charger is 50 miles away and takes 3 hours.  
 

Ford knows this and will do both for as long as necessary, and it looks like you won’t have to give up your F150 or Bronco or Mustang coupe to go BEV.

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6 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I guess you can't figure out percentages....this is TOTAL sales. Not Ford sales. 


Actually it did say 40% of Ford global sales.

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18 minutes ago, akirby said:

The US market is totally different than any other country. 

 

From a regulatory standpoint this is true. For example, U.S. is unique in that it doesn't subscribe to UN/ECE motor vehicle regulations and uses its own (FMVSS). Another example relates to BEV adoption, the U.S. is hindered by the fact that 10 states currently follow California Air Resources Board's ZEV regulations, but the other 40 do not. However, harmonization of ZEV regulations across the entire U.S. market may occur before 2030. The current presidential administration is serious about getting the U.S. as a whole to catch up to China and EU when it comes to sustainability in the transportation sector.

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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

I agree Willwll313wll sir! The Big 3 American automakers of GM, Ford, and Tesla plus the American startups like Rivian and Lordstown Motors are in a good position to be global leaders in an automotive industry that is going all electric. Ford's latest announcement of their new dedicated BEV platforms confirms that they are playing to win in the ongoing industry revolution. 

 

As an American, it would make me very pleased if U.S. auto companies become the "standard of the world" and push the European and Asian companies off the pedestal they are on now. With proper public policy in the U.S., there's a good chance that could happen.

 

The only "good position" Lordstown is in is one to wither and die before it's even started.

 

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

From a regulatory standpoint this is true. For example, U.S. is unique in that it doesn't subscribe to UN/ECE motor vehicle regulations and uses its own (FMVSS). Another example relates to BEV adoption, the U.S. is hindered by the fact that 10 states currently follow California Air Resources Board's ZEV regulations, but the other 40 do not. However, harmonization of ZEV regulations across the entire U.S. market may occur before 2030. The current presidential administration is serious about getting the U.S. as a whole to catch up to China and EU when it comes to sustainability in the transportation sector.

 

RollEYES | Meme Generator

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, bzcat said:

The Rivian based truck is an interesting development. Would that be the Ranger EV or in addition to Ranger EV? I'm thinking in addition.

 

The Rivian could, in concept, be a Maverick replacement or perhaps more along the lines of the original Explorer Sport, i.e. "lifestyle" truck - as opposed to what the Ranger will most likely be: a strong member of the F150 family with a derivative of its TE1 chassis design.

Edited by Harley Lover

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1 hour ago, Harley Lover said:

 

The Rivian could, in concept, be a Maverick replacement or perhaps more along the lines of the original Explorer Sport, i.e. "lifestyle" truck - as opposed to what the Ranger will most likely be: a strong member of the F150 family with a derivative of its TE1 chassis design.

 

The Rivian pickup is slightly larger then the Ranger, so it wouldn't replace the Maverick. I think you might be spot on with it being something like the Explorer Sport or maybe it will morph into a Bronco style pickup? 

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10 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

From a regulatory standpoint this is true. 


It’s true period.  Regulations don’t change what people want to drive or how they want or need to drive.  They also don’t magically change the infrastructure overnight.

 

The best thing the US can do is subsidize US battery production (and other components) and help build out the public charging infrastructure while addressing the electrical infrastructure and let the market drive vehicle sales and production.

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https://electrek.co/2021/05/27/electric-car-us-tax-credit-up-less-tesla-vehicles/?fbclid=IwAR1ESTccvrZI9TsZtivGRLwD9wiEjxBESEWMNX-s9rnr8pHLllj9B-O3Q_I
 

200,000 cap would go away and credit would phase out when BEV hits 50% of market. 
 

$7,500 credit

$10,000 if built in USA

$12,500 is built by UAW

 

Will be hard to get through senate. 
 

It will be hard to justify paying so much more for a Mach-E than a Model Y.

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13 minutes ago, sullynd said:

https://electrek.co/2021/05/27/electric-car-us-tax-credit-up-less-tesla-vehicles/?fbclid=IwAR1ESTccvrZI9TsZtivGRLwD9wiEjxBESEWMNX-s9rnr8pHLllj9B-O3Q_I
 

200,000 cap would go away and credit would phase out when BEV hits 50% of market. 
 

$7,500 credit

$10,000 if built in USA

$12,500 is built by UAW

 

Will be hard to get through senate. 
 

It will be hard to justify paying so much more for a Mach-E than a Model Y.


If we have to have them I’d prefer to see $7500, $10k if built in North America, $12.5K if built in US.   UAW should not matter.

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5 minutes ago, akirby said:


If we have to have them I’d prefer to see $7500, $10k if built in North America, $12.5K if built in US.   UAW should not matter.

 

Agreed. BEV's need incentives and infrastructure for the market and sales to grow. The government has no business subsidizing the UAW. 

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It wouldn’t subsidize the UAW, it penalizes Elon. 

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5 minutes ago, sullynd said:

It wouldn’t subsidize the UAW, it penalizes Elon. 

 

It would hurt Tesla the most based on their volume but also the other OEM's that are non-union. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

It would hurt Tesla the most based on their volume but also the other OEM's that are non-union. 


Yes, would also be easiest for Elon to address. Nissan isn’t going to go Union, but Elon could. It’s also likely to have to change if it has a shot of getting passed. 

Edited by sullynd

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People are still buying Teslas without the credit.  I don’t think it will affect sales.  It certainly wouldn’t cause a factory to unionize just to get a $2500 price advantage.

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Wow, Farley sure knows how to speak to investors. Ford stock hit $15 today. Impressive. Jim Cramer says Farley is going after Tesla big time. Looks that way. Ford Pro gives Ford a leg up over Tesla. Ford already owns 43% of the commercial market even before Lightning and electric Transit hit the market. 

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55 minutes ago, sullynd said:

https://electrek.co/2021/05/27/electric-car-us-tax-credit-up-less-tesla-vehicles/?fbclid=IwAR1ESTccvrZI9TsZtivGRLwD9wiEjxBESEWMNX-s9rnr8pHLllj9B-O3Q_I
 

200,000 cap would go away and credit would phase out when BEV hits 50% of market. 
 

$7,500 credit

$10,000 if built in USA

$12,500 is built by UAW

 

Will be hard to get through senate. 
 

It will be hard to justify paying so much more for a Mach-E than a Model Y.


The UAW provision won't stick. Also made in USA will have to be changed to made in North America because the USMCA free trade agreement specifically said cars made in Canada and Mexico are considered domestic. USMCA was ratified by Congress so it is a US law. Congress cannot make a conflicting law (treating US and Canada/Mexico build cars differently) unless it also amends existing law (USMCA). But we cannot change the previous law unilaterally because it is a treaty with foreign countries so we would have to renegotiate USMCA. And that's not happening. 

 

 

One more sticking point is WTO rules will likely prohibit this kind of subsidy based on origin of the goods. Even if the law was changed to North America instead of USA, it still discriminates against EV made in EU, Korea, or Japan, and of course China. So any of them could challenge that in WTO and probably win.

 

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5 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

One more sticking point is WTO rules will likely prohibit this kind of subsidy based on origin of the goods. Even if the law was changed to North America instead of USA, it still discriminates against EV made in EU, Korea, or Japan, and of course China. So any of them could challenge that in WTO and probably win.

 


How does a subsidy differ from a tariff?

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Tariff is tax assessed on imported goods. WTO allows countries to assess discriminatory tariff as retaliation for unfair trade practice (which Trump did repeatedly, some say without merit but that's another topic). WTO rules also do not prohibit non-discriminatory tariff if a country has justifiable reasons.

 

Subsidy is direct payment or tax break for producer or consumers. WTO rules generally prohibits subsidies that target or favors domestic producers. Certain sectors are exempted (like agriculture and oil/gas production) or have extensive carve outs if developing countries designated them as having national importance. China for example, declared its automotive industry as nascent and required special protection and was able to skirt WTO rules on fair competition.

 

I know what you are thinking and Chicken Tax is not discriminatory. US applies that tax on all imported trucks although it was originally intended to  targeted only Germany. But since Germany was the only one importing trucks to the US at that time, that's how the law was written. Countries that has free trade agreement with the US have been exempted from Chicken Tax but that's all within the framework of WTO's free trade provision.

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9 minutes ago, akirby said:

The best thing the US can do is subsidize US battery production (and other components) and help build out the public charging infrastructure while addressing the electrical infrastructure

 

Yes sir, those things should be top priorities for the U.S. federal government as well as state and local governments. Just as important, ZEV mandates need to be applied to all 50 states which will require federal government involvement. One reason that China is ahead of the U.S. right now with BEV adoption is that they have one national standard.

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