Ford To Split EV Unit?

[7Mary3]

I don't think Ford or GM will ditch ICE's 100%.  Passenger vehicles yes, but there will be specialty vehicles.  When the majority of vehicles on the road are BEV's, a few ICE's will be insignificant as far as carbon emissions are concerned.

Edited March 4, 2022 by 7Mary3

[Footballfan]

51 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Farley is saying 180 K Lightning production by 2024 which is a third of current F150 sales. So either Ford sees a massive influx of sales or the transition begins with two F150 plants dropping from three shifts to two…,,and that’s before the all new TE1 based Lightning arrives in ‘25.

 

Some big conversations coming at the next UAW contract meetings but Fird isn’t alone, GM is planning to ditch ICE as soon as possible while Stellantis CEO says BEVs are all too hard……

 

sorry for sounding like chicken little but Farley’s latest moves set off something inside me, there’s bigger moves he isn’t saying publicly..,,,,

I think that 100% BEVs goals are a crock- and the CEOs of these companies know it. They just know how wet Wall Street gets when they hear EVs. As always, you cannot force customers to buy something they don't want. 

[akirby]

27 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

I think that 100% BEVs goals are a crock- and the CEOs of these companies know it. They just know how wet Wall Street gets when they hear EVs. As always, you cannot force customers to buy something they don't want. 

This ^^^^

[jpd80]

39 minutes ago, akirby said:

This ^^^^

Ford has a tendency of going in boots and all when it senses a change in market, this could be one of those instances where it’s over anticipating things and signalling one thing to Wall Street while planning something much more conservative.

 

I go back to your words recently about built up initial orders versus the actual depth of BEV sales. It’s really hard to tell until Lightning starts selling whether sales snowball or if they hold at lower than expected annual numbers.

 

I chuckled when CEO of Stellantis basically fumbled the ball on BEVs, that could be where Ford pinched a lot of sales….,

Edited March 4, 2022 by jpd80

[rperez817]

58 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

this could be one of those instances where it’s over anticipating things and signalling one thing to Wall Street while planning something much more conservative.

 

Farley's tenure as Ford CEO so far suggests the opposite is more likely. What he has planned for Ford in the context of transitioning to 100% electric vehicles is probably much more aggressive than what has been mentioned in Ford press releases or during investor presentations. Underpromise and overdeliver, in other words.

 

Examples of how Ford overdelivered already.

• Amazing success of Mustang Mach-E product launch in 2021 following a somewhat rough start
• Signatory of COP26 declaration accelerating the transition to 100% zero emission cars and vans
• F-150 Lightning popularity so high that Ford had to stop taking reservations
• And of course, being first among incumbent automakers to separate BEV/advanced technology operations from legacy ICE vehicle operations as discussed in this thread

Farley has a lot of work cut out for him to continue surprising investors, analysts, employees, and customers with accomplishments like these, while also continuing efforts to get Ford "fit". Expanding production capacity for Ford's BEV (including HV batteries) just to meet current demand is a monumental challenge by itself, as Farley mentioned earlier this year. However, there's good reason to be optimistic that Jim Farley will pull it off.

 

[Fordowner]

As battery technology advances I think at the very least we are rapidly approaching electric eclipsing fossil fuels.    The real game changer though will be batteries small enough to easily plug into your car like you do with your cell phones.    

 

But even now it seems the battery advances have homeowners installing solar panels at a greater pace - and once you invest in solar panels for your home seems you'd want a car that charges off those panels. 

  

Though what happens with people who live in situations that don't provide access to a plug for your car to charge overnight?

Edited March 4, 2022 by Fordowner

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, Fordowner said:

Though what happens with people who live in situations that don't provide access to a plug for your car to charge overnight?

 

As demand increases or tech changes (more rapid charging options) they'll add more charging stations at high density living (condos/apartments/etc)

 

It is the old chicken or egg situation. 

[DeluxeStang]

16 hours ago, Footballfan said:

I think that 100% BEVs goals are a crock- and the CEOs of these companies know it. They just know how wet Wall Street gets when they hear EVs. As always, you cannot force customers to buy something they don't want. 

I mean, yes and no. While consumers vote with their dollars, at the same time, in 10 - 15 years, if some segments have only, or mostly electric vehicles, even people who normally wouldn't have bought an ev previously, will now buy an ev, or at least a hybrid. Case in point, my father. He's about as boomer as you can get, he used to subscribe to the no longer relevant argument that new, or complex tech was guaranteed to be unreliable. He was a textbook example of, I'll never trust hybrid or ev cars. However, after discussing with him how ford's hybrids often surpass the longevity of ford's strictly ICE powered vehicles, he's now on board to get a Maverick hybrid. People change all the time, there was a time when people were highly resistant to hybrids and evs, but that's changing very rapidly. If newer hybrids and evs can win over my father, trust me, they can win over just about anyone.

[rperez817]

25 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

People change all the time, there was a time when people were highly resistant to hybrids and evs, but that's changing very rapidly. If newer hybrids and evs can win over my father, trust me, they can win over just about anyone.

 

Good story DeluxeStang. My wife and I have attended several BEV education events like National Drive Electric Week, and let several people test drive our 2 BEV (Ford Mustang Mach-E and Tesla Model S). Some of those people, like your father, were "highly resistant" to BEV prior to experiencing one. Each one that my wife or I met personally changed their tune after test driving a BEV and chatting with us and other BEV owners.

 

J.D. Power's latest U.S. Electric Vehicle Experience Study confirms this. They said "Making the initial leap of faith into owning a BEV is proving to be very satisfying" and "once someone has purchased a BEV, they’re pretty much hooked."

 

For Ford, the biggest goals related to getting to a 100% electric future are.

• Build in-house talent and capabilities for BEV design, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing
• Expand production capacity to meet demand for BEV, including producing components such as a HV batteries and electric motors
• Accelerate the timeline for exiting the ICE age simultaneously with growing the BEV and advanced technology businesses

The separation of business units described in this thread is a great starting point to achieve all 3 of those goals.

 

[FordBuyer]

38 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

I mean, yes and no. While consumers vote with their dollars, at the same time, in 10 - 15 years, if some segments have only, or mostly electric vehicles, even people who normally wouldn't have bought an ev previously, will now buy an ev, or at least a hybrid. Case in point, my father. He's about as boomer as you can get, he used to subscribe to the no longer relevant argument that new, or complex tech was guaranteed to be unreliable. He was a textbook example of, I'll never trust hybrid or ev cars. However, after discussing with him how ford's hybrids often surpass the longevity of ford's strictly ICE powered vehicles, he's now on board to get a Maverick hybrid. People change all the time, there was a time when people were highly resistant to hybrids and evs, but that's changing very rapidly. If newer hybrids and evs can win over my father, trust me, they can win over just about anyone.

 

One could argue that Ford's hybrid powertrains are the most reliable in its fleet. Certainly more reliable than the ecoboost drivetrains. My Ford hybrid is now 2 years old and ZERO problems. However, Ford is about to recall 120 2021 Escape Hybrids with faulty crankshafts. Of course only the ICE 2.5 is affected. Must have been a small defective batch. 

[rperez817]

26 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

One could argue that Ford's hybrid powertrains are the most reliable in its fleet. Certainly more reliable than the ecoboost drivetrains. 

 

You are correct FordBuyer. Historical reliability data from Consumer Reports show that Ford models equipped with the 2.5L Atkinson cycle 4-cylinder engine and HF35 power-split transmission are the most trouble-free Ford products in the "engine major", '"engine minor", "transmission major", and "transmission minor" categories.

 

The new HF45 transmission should be just as reliable, unfortunately CR no longer separates model level ratings by powertrain. So for 2021 Ford Escape for example, there's just one rating for all Escapes, rather than separate ratings for Escape 1.5L, Escape Hybrid, and Escape 2.0L. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by rperez817

[Footballfan]

1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

I mean, yes and no. While consumers vote with their dollars, at the same time, in 10 - 15 years, if some segments have only, or mostly electric vehicles, even people who normally wouldn't have bought an ev previously, will now buy an ev, or at least a hybrid. Case in point, my father. He's about as boomer as you can get, he used to subscribe to the no longer relevant argument that new, or complex tech was guaranteed to be unreliable. He was a textbook example of, I'll never trust hybrid or ev cars. However, after discussing with him how ford's hybrids often surpass the longevity of ford's strictly ICE powered vehicles, he's now on board to get a Maverick hybrid. People change all the time, there was a time when people were highly resistant to hybrids and evs, but that's changing very rapidly. If newer hybrids and evs can win over my father, trust me, they can win over just about anyone.

I would buy a hybrid that gives me the best of ICE and EVs.

[FordBuyer]

52 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

I would buy a hybrid that gives me the best of ICE and EVs.

 

Yep, the Escape hybrid is 400 pounds lighter than the plugin and available AWD also. It is also thousands cheaper and overall fuel mileage is pretty close. In fact the hybrid has a bigger fuel tank with more miles to the tank. However, if you drive less than 40 miles/day in heavy traffic, your gas will last for months with plugin. 

[Joe771476]

Sounds like another dumb idea by Ford. Every time Ford has done stuff like this for shareholder value, it has only emasculated and emaciated a once powerful empire!  They got rid of Philco and Aerospace biz, farm tractor biz, Class 8 truck biz all for shareholder value.  Stock prices tanked!  Ford use to be a powerhouse!  Now they just make cars and medium duty trucks. Wow. Do you see the trucks and chassis Mercedes provides for concrete pumpers, fire apparatus, cranes?!  That's a powerhouse!  Keep the EV under Ford, period!

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, Joe771476 said:

Keep the EV under Ford, period!

 

That's the plan both short term (BEV/advanced technology operations under a common Ford corporate umbrella) and long term (with the likely spinoff of Ford's legacy ICE operations to be gutted by private equity, etc. and BEV/advanced technology operations acting as the Ford "Newco").

[FordBuyer]

5 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

Sounds like another dumb idea by Ford. Every time Ford has done stuff like this for shareholder value, it has only emasculated and emaciated a once powerful empire!  They got rid of Philco and Aerospace biz, farm tractor biz, Class 8 truck biz all for shareholder value.  Stock prices tanked!  Ford use to be a powerhouse!  Now they just make cars and medium duty trucks. Wow. Do you see the trucks and chassis Mercedes provides for concrete pumpers, fire apparatus, cranes?!  That's a powerhouse!  Keep the EV under Ford, period!

 

When you look at John Deere and Cummins stock price, what was Ford thinking getting rid of its Tractor and heavy truck business. I remember as a kid going by the huge Ford Tractor plant at the corner of Southfield Rd. and today's I696. 

[Footballfan]

1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

 

When you look at John Deere and Cummins stock price, what was Ford thinking getting rid of its Tractor and heavy truck business. I remember as a kid going by the huge Ford Tractor plant at the corner of Southfield Rd. and today's I696. 

Not to mention REP that was once a tractor plant. 

[7Mary3]

15 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

Sounds like another dumb idea by Ford. Every time Ford has done stuff like this for shareholder value, it has only emasculated and emaciated a once powerful empire!  They got rid of Philco and Aerospace biz, farm tractor biz, Class 8 truck biz all for shareholder value.  Stock prices tanked!  Ford use to be a powerhouse!  Now they just make cars and medium duty trucks. Wow. Do you see the trucks and chassis Mercedes provides for concrete pumpers, fire apparatus, cranes?!  That's a powerhouse!  Keep the EV under Ford, period!

 

I don't know, remember Philco TV's were junk and Ford's Aerospace/Defense business gave us the Sergeant York anti-arcraft 'system'.  Getting rid of those two turkeys was good business!  

[DeluxeStang]

17 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

Sounds like another dumb idea by Ford. Every time Ford has done stuff like this for shareholder value, it has only emasculated and emaciated a once powerful empire!  They got rid of Philco and Aerospace biz, farm tractor biz, Class 8 truck biz all for shareholder value.  Stock prices tanked!  Ford use to be a powerhouse!  Now they just make cars and medium duty trucks. Wow. Do you see the trucks and chassis Mercedes provides for concrete pumpers, fire apparatus, cranes?!  That's a powerhouse!  Keep the EV under Ford, period!

With all due respect, I think you misinterpreted this announcement. Ford isn't getting rid of ev development or creating another company for it. They're just giving it its own dedicated division, which will result in a more efficient organization, and better products.

[FordBuyer]

10 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

With all due respect, I think you misinterpreted this announcement. Ford isn't getting rid of ev development or creating another company for it. They're just giving it its own dedicated division, which will result in a more efficient organization, and better products.

 

No argument there, but there is more life left in ICE and the infrastructure for it is very mature. And ICE development continues with some. For example, Nissan just introduced its new variable compression engine in its 2022 Rogue. Very impressive fuel mileage and Nissan will sell a lot of them. I hope EVs do well, but there is still room for ICE and further development. Especially if the price is thousands cheaper than EV. And so far surveys show that EVs are more problematic than ICE. Mainly software/electronic problems. 

[akirby]

One thing to keep in mind - if someone develops a reasonably priced gasoline replacement with zero or near zero CO2 emissions then ICE may suddenly be viable again long term.  At least for a subset of vehicles.

[Footballfan]

1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

 

No argument there, but there is more life left in ICE and the infrastructure for it is very mature. And ICE development continues with some. For example, Nissan just introduced its new variable compression engine in its 2022 Rogue. Very impressive fuel mileage and Nissan will sell a lot of them. I hope EVs do well, but there is still room for ICE and further development. Especially if the price is thousands cheaper than EV. And so far surveys show that EVs are more problematic than ICE. Mainly software/electronic problems. 

Stellantis is introducing a new L6 engine as well. 

[rmc523]

12 hours ago, akirby said:

One thing to keep in mind - if someone develops a reasonably priced gasoline replacement with zero or near zero CO2 emissions then ICE may suddenly be viable again long term.  At least for a subset of vehicles.

Not if governments have their way lol.

[akirby]

7 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Not if governments have their way lol.

Well that’s always the rub when you have political goals not based in reality or logic.  If the goal is to reduce emissions there are many options like PHEVs and alternate fuels but not if you have doomsday people who think going 100% BEV is the only way to prevent global catastrophe.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

If the goal is to reduce emissions there are many options like PHEVs and alternate fuels but not if you have doomsday people who think going 100% BEV is the only way to prevent global catastrophe.

 

100% BEV isn't the only way for automakers to address the global climate emergency, but as of now it is the best way. That's why BEV is the basis of Ford's strategy to achieve a 100% zero-emissions vehicle lineup in the next 15-18 years.