Auto Execs Are Coming Clean, EVs Are Just Not Working...

[blwnsmoke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/auto-execs-coming-clean-evs-164359606.html

 

Comments from GM, Mercedes, Toyota and Honda..  

[jpd80]

A bit of a worry if GM doesn’t now know when it will hit it 100k EV per quarter target,

maybe Ford is also looking at a huge $40 billion black hole with no money at the end….

[Rick73]

VW months ago was first I recall to cite “strong customer reluctance” for having to cut back electric vehicle production.

[mackinaw]

34 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

VW months ago was first I recall to cite “strong customer reluctance” for having to cut back electric vehicle production.

 

Not just VW.  Ford is now postponing $12 billion in EV investments due to customer reluctance.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/26/ford-will-postpone-about-12-billion-in-ev-investment.html

[tbone]

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

Not just VW.  Ford is now postponing $12 billion in EV investments due to customer reluctance.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/26/ford-will-postpone-about-12-billion-in-ev-investment.html

Perhaps they should take that $12 billion and invest in existing models to make them better as well as additional ICE/hybrids that people do actually want to buy.  When the Edge departs it will be one less option and a bit of slim pickings as far as I’m concerned.  
 

This situation isn’t that surprising to me, plus it will give time for the tech and infrastructure to improve. The 2% battery life I had left on the Mach E today trying to get to a public charging station was very unnerving. I passed plenty of gas stations enroute…

Edited October 27, 2023 by tbone

[Oac98]

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

Not just VW.  Ford is now postponing $12 billion in EV investments due to customer reluctance.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/26/ford-will-postpone-about-12-billion-in-ev-investment.html

Here we go AGAIN!!!! Plans are about to change!! I wonder how pushed back the OAC AND BOC plans will be?! 

[Oac98]

13 minutes ago, tbone said:

Perhaps they should take that $12 billion and invest in existing models to make them better as well as additional ICE/hybrids that people do actually want to buy.  When the Edge departs it will be one less option and a bit of slim pickings as far as I’m concerned.  

Ford goes and cancels the Edge and imports the Nautilus and now we have to wait for low selling EVs. JUST GREAT!! All I’m hearing is hybrid this hybrid that maybe they should dump a hybrid at OAC with their EV plans so we’re not on one shift when this all starts in 2025 OR LATER! 

[tbone]

8 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

Ford goes and cancels the Edge and imports the Nautilus and now we have to wait for low selling EVs. JUST GREAT!! All I’m hearing is hybrid this hybrid that maybe they should dump a hybrid at OAC with their EV plans so we’re not on one shift when this all starts in 2025 OR LATER! 

Ultimately the Edge should not have been cancelled and subsequently updated or replaced.  You don’t have to change the frame every 5 years to improve a vehicle.  Changing the sheetmetal and the interior will sufficiently make it a new vehicle. Enhanced drivetrains would be icing on the cake. A similar strategy sure seems to have worked for Toyota.  

 

I mean they do have the Chinese Edge that could be used, although they would need to change that ugly kick up in the rear beltline and probably take it back to two rows.  
 

 

[Texasota]

Ford currently has a decent lineup of hybrids and PHEVs that will help them survive. GM has nothing in the way of hybrids and they are going to feel the pain more than Ford.

[Oac98]

25 minutes ago, tbone said:

Ultimately the Edge should not have been cancelled and subsequently updated or replaced.  You don’t have to change the frame every 5 years to improve a vehicle.  Changing the sheetmetal and the interior will sufficiently make it a new vehicle. Enhanced drivetrains would be icing on the cake. A similar strategy sure seems to have worked for Toyota.  

 

I mean they do have the Chinese Edge that could be used, although they would need to change that ugly kick up in the rear beltline and probably take it back to two rows.  
 

 

Edge and old Nautilus are toast. Dec 5th old Nautilus production ends. We still haven’t been given a specific date for the Edge other than 2nd quarter 2024. I just keep hearing how they’re slowing down EV plans. I’m curious to see how this will change the retool timing at Oakville if it does at all. 

[tbone]

36 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

Edge and old Nautilus are toast. Dec 5th old Nautilus production ends. We still haven’t been given a specific date for the Edge other than 2nd quarter 2024. I just keep hearing how they’re slowing down EV plans. I’m curious to see how this will change the retool timing at Oakville if it does at all. 

Yes it will be interesting to see what happens with your plant.  Things seemed to really be up in the air now.  

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Oacjay98 said:

Edge and old Nautilus are toast. Dec 5th old Nautilus production ends. We still haven’t been given a specific date for the Edge other than 2nd quarter 2024. I just keep hearing how they’re slowing down EV plans. I’m curious to see how this will change the retool timing at Oakville if it does at all. 

 

It won't...its too late to change anything without drastically changing the plans they currently have in place, which would basically mean shutting the plant down for an extended period of time and losing money on it. 

 

The last thing I saw on the Edge was production was ending in March of next year?

 

I'll give you my read of the tea leaves on this-

New Ford/Lincoln EVs from Oakville still happen within the next 18 months, but with much lower expectations in sales-I'm thinking 100K between the two of them in the short term

 

BOC opens in 2025 and Launches the T3 by the end of that year...once again production numbers are going to be lower then expected-maybe 100K 

 

I'm thinking the second battery plant that was being talked about was going to be used on the upcoming Escape replacement-they might push the ICE Escape production out another year or two-the last thing I saw was 2025 I think...it just got a refresh...so maybe it will stay into production till the 2027MY.

 

There is so many variables at this point with the automotive market that no one has a clue as to what will happen over the next 2-3 years. I think EV pricing is going to be indicative of sales of higher priced ICE products with inflation and interest rates killing interest in them in the next six months. Then add in Oil pricing going possibly completely stupid with what is going on in the Middle East and yeah we don't look like we are gonna have a good time. 

 

On the flip side-charging should be built out better over the next 4 years or so....

 

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

Edge and old Nautilus are toast. Dec 5th old Nautilus production ends. We still haven’t been given a specific date for the Edge other than 2nd quarter 2024. I just keep hearing how they’re slowing down EV plans. I’m curious to see how this will change the retool timing at Oakville if it does at all. 

If Ford is now unsure of its decision, I bet they go quiet and say nothing  to anyone - they have no backup plan.

 

and if BEV sales are as soggy as they reckon, GE2 could easily be added to Cuautitlan, put the 2.5 HEV package

in Edge/Nautilus and just keep going. Quick and dirty extension plan and try again in a couple of years.

[Oac98]

6 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

It won't...its too late to change anything without drastically changing the plans they currently have in place, which would basically mean shutting the plant down for an extended period of time and losing money on it. 

 

The last thing I saw on the Edge was production was ending in March of next year?

 

I'll give you my read of the tea leaves on this-

New Ford/Lincoln EVs from Oakville still happen within the next 18 months, but with much lower expectations in sales-I'm thinking 100K between the two of them in the short term

 

BOC opens in 2025 and Launches the T3 by the end of that year...once again production numbers are going to be lower then expected-maybe 100K 

 

I'm thinking the second battery plant that was being talked about was going to be used on the upcoming Escape replacement-they might push the ICE Escape production out another year or two-the last thing I saw was 2025 I think...it just got a refresh...so maybe it will stay into production till the 2027MY.

 

There is so many variables at this point with the automotive market that no one has a clue as to what will happen over the next 2-3 years. I think EV pricing is going to be indicative of sales of higher priced ICE products with inflation and interest rates killing interest in them in the next six months. Then add in Oil pricing going possibly completely stupid with what is going on in the Middle East and yeah we don't look like we are gonna have a good time. 

 

On the flip side-charging should be built out better over the next 4 years or so....

 

I totally agree with what you’re saying, sounds logical to me. Their projections will be lower forsure and a lot can change as we know in the next few years. I can honestly see some plants gone or repurposed when the smoke clears in the next 5 years or so.

[Oac98]

49 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

If Ford is now unsure of its decision, I bet they go quiet and say nothing  to anyone - they have no backup plan.

 

and if BEV sales are as soggy as they reckon, GE2 could easily be added to Cuautitlan, put the 2.5 HEV package

in Edge/Nautilus and just keep going. Quick and dirty extension plan and try again in a couple of years.

Well we all know these GE2 vehicles have been slated for different plants including Mexico before the OAC decision. Technically with these lower numbers they could put those two vehicles in Mexico with the Mach e. I doubt that will happen at this point as I’m seeing lots of contractors in the plant these days. Remember Nautilus is getting imported those existing vehicles are dead at OAC. Edge order banks closing this week and Nov 3 supposedly. I feel like I’m speculating too much. Ford will lay out what they’re gonna do now that this uaw strike is over in due time.

[jpd80]

9 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

Well we all know these GE2 vehicles have been slated for different plants including Mexico before the OAC decision. Technically with these lower numbers they could put those two vehicles in Mexico with the Mach e. I doubt that will happen at this point as I’m seeing lots of contractors in the plant these days. Remember Nautilus is getting imported those existing vehicles are dead at OAC. Edge order banks closing this week and Nov 3 supposedly. I feel like I’m speculating too much. Ford will lay out what they’re gonna do now that this uaw strike is over in due time.

All I’m saying is don’t be surprised if Ford goes quiet on it’s EV plans over the next month or so,

and if it’s pulling back $12 billion in investment, it will be interesting to see how and where that is…

[Oac98]

13 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

All I’m saying is don’t be surprised if Ford goes quiet on it’s EV plans over the next month or so,

and if it’s pulling back $12 billion in investment, it will be interesting to see how and where that is…

I won’t be surprised and your points are valid. Ford keeps on changing up plans which I guess they have to. They’ve been way too quiet in regards to upcoming EVs in my opinion. 

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

I won’t be surprised and your points are valid. Ford keeps on changing up plans which I guess they have to. They’ve been way too quiet in regards to upcoming EVs in my opinion. 

Absolutely, I sense that Ford might be at one of those pivoting moments….

[Gurgeh]

I noticed this in particular:
"Among those hand-wringing is GM's Mary Barra, historically one of the automotive industry's most bullish CEOs on the future of electric vehicles. GM has been an early-mover in the electric car market, selling the Chevrolet Bolt for seven years and making bold claims about a fully electric future for the company long before its competitors got on board."

 

Looks to me that the challenge facing GM is particularly tough. Wasn't it just a year or two ago that Barra announced the company had ended all investment into traditionally-powered vehicles (including hybrids), and was going full speed ahead into developing an all-electric product line?

 

For the record, I'm convinced EV's remain the future. It doesn't look, however, that it's a future that will be arriving as quickly as many, especially in Washington, expected.

[Chrisgb]

I always thought the GM Volt design was the most practical. Like a diesel-electric locomotive, the ICE engine only turns a generator which supplies power to the electric motor and a short range battery. An Atkinson ICE and a 50-75 mile range on battery alone, with the ability to charge while driving or via the grid would be practical and economical for many. The 100% BEV strategy may turn out to be the 21st century version of AM stereo.

It's a chicken & egg situation. BEV demand will increase as charging becomes faster and widely  available; charging will become widely available when BEV demand increases.

[Willwll313wll]

Desirable EVs are expensive during a time of high interest rates, high inflation, where people are unsure of their confidence in the economy . It is clear why these are not moving off the lots. 

Good lease rates and price cuts are helping, still the transition to a complete EV world will be slower than we thought.

 

There's other factors of course, EV education, infrastructure, politics, etc. but I believe these CEOs are out of touch with the people hoping to buy their products.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Willwll313wll

[Rick73]

21 minutes ago, Willwll313wll said:

There's other factors of course, EV education, infrastructure, politics, etc. but I believe these CEOs are out of touch with the people hoping to buy their products.

You mean CEOs making $Millions don’t get why vehicles costing $100,000 are not flying off the shelves? ? 

[akirby]

32 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

I noticed this in particular:
"Among those hand-wringing is GM's Mary Barra, historically one of the automotive industry's most bullish CEOs on the future of electric vehicles. GM has been an early-mover in the electric car market, selling the Chevrolet Bolt for seven years and making bold claims about a fully electric future for the company long before its competitors got on board."

 

Looks to me that the challenge facing GM is particularly tough. Wasn't it just a year or two ago that Barra announced the company had ended all investment into traditionally-powered vehicles (including hybrids), and was going full speed ahead into developing an all-electric product line?

 

For the record, I'm convinced EV's remain the future. It doesn't look, however, that it's a future that will be arriving as quickly as many, especially in Washington, expected.

I believe most of us (except one) said that GMs all EV plans with no hybrids was pretty risky and Ford was in a better position by releasing Mach-e and lightning early and keeping HEVs and PHEVs.  Production issues and rising costs prevented Mach-E and Lightning from being runaway hits but I think Ford gained valuable experience.

 

I don’t think they can pivot Oakville back to edge/nautilus very easily due to suppliers.  Keeping the current vehicles wouldn’t be smart even if the suppliers could continue.

 

They still need BOC and T3 for sure.  It’s probably too late to change Aviator/Explorer at Oakville.  
 

I would look to put all other EVs in Mexico and do the following:

 

Add a hybrid option to Bronco Sport, Ranger and Bronco.

Replace Escape with a Maverick based SUV - larger and cheaper than Bronco Sport without the off-road chops.  Add C2 Edge (new not the Chinese version) and Nautilus to Louisville along with Corsair with HEV options for all.  That makes 6 C2 vehicles split between the 2 plants with the same powertrains (1.5, 2.0, 2.3 plus HEVs and PHEVs).  

 

[ice-capades]

13 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

Edge and old Nautilus are toast. Dec 5th old Nautilus production ends. We still haven’t been given a specific date for the Edge other than 2nd quarter 2024. I just keep hearing how they’re slowing down EV plans. I’m curious to see how this will change the retool timing at Oakville if it does at all. 

 

I'd think at this stage that it's too late to make changes for the Oakville BEV conversion plans.

Edited October 27, 2023 by ice-capades

[akirby]

32 minutes ago, Willwll313wll said:

 

There's other factors of course, EV education, infrastructure, politics, etc. but I believe these CEOs are out of touch with the people hoping to buy their products.

Whoa now let’s not forget that there was/is a big push for governments to mandate BEVs at some point in the near future both here and in Europe and Asia.  It would have been negligent for any mfr to ignore that possibility and not position the company to thrive if that came to fruition.