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Nothing Can Stop the Midsize Sedan Segment From Collapsing, Not Even a New Camry and Accord

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6 minutes ago, msm859 said:

Not exactly.  The one exception missing from this article was the Tesla Model 3.  In 2017 they sold less then 2000.  In 2018 they sold over 145,000 Model 3's.  It is probably a fair assumption that Tesla took sales away from a lot of other sedans - perhaps most notably BMW.  So there is room for sedans.  

Good point msm859 sir. Tesla Model 3 was the best selling domestic brand car in the 4th quarter of 2018.

I think the article left out Tesla Model 3 from the mass market midsize sedan numbers because Model 3 is considered a compact luxury sedan. You are correct that Tesla ate into BMW sales big time. U.S. BMW 3-Series sales in 2018 were down 25% compared to 2017.

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47 minutes ago, msm859 said:

Not exactly.  The one exception missing from this article was the Tesla Model 3.  In 2017 they sold less then 2000.  In 2018 they sold over 145,000 Model 3's.  It is probably a fair assumption that Tesla took sales away from a lot of other sedans - perhaps most notably BMW.  So there is room for sedans.  

34 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Good point msm859 sir. Tesla Model 3 was the best selling domestic brand car in the 4th quarter of 2018.

I think the article left out Tesla Model 3 from the mass market midsize sedan numbers because Model 3 is considered a compact luxury sedan. You are correct that Tesla ate into BMW sales big time. U.S. BMW 3-Series sales in 2018 were down 25% compared to 2017.

It'll be very interesting to see where sales of Model 3 go from here.  A few points I've thought of:

-How many were driven by the tax credit, which is going away?

-As they chip away at that reservation list, will they continue to have more customers coming in to "replenish"/sustain the numbers?

-Also, an average buyer (i.e. not buyers of 80k+ vehicles like S and X) won't put up with quality/reliability issues and will jump ship if they have too many problems, where as I feel like S and X buyers are more likely to be "Tesla-philes" that will be loyal regardless.

-Another very important factor is product freshness.  Average buyers want the next new thing every 3 years or so with refreshes then redesigns.  The S got a minor refresh, the X hasn't had anything yet, so Model 3 needs to be updated consistently.

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I doubt Model 3 is making a big dent in midsize sedan sales. The compact CUVs are doing all the damage.

Model 3 is pulling sales away from other entry luxury sedans like Audi A4 and BMW 3 series.

Midsize sedan market will shrink until it reaches a natural equilibrium for a niche segment like minivans. By that point, the ones remaining will be the strongest competitors - e.g. Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai-Kia.

Question for a company like Ford is how many niche segments it wants to try to dominate and to what end in terms of profitability (or lack there of). e.g. Ford has decided that sports coupe is a niche worth dominating while minivan or compact sedans are not worth the trouble.

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4 hours ago, akirby said:

Not necessarily.   It depends on their market position, how they sell globally, platform sharing, factory capacity, etc.

There is still money that can be made but probably in the 1% - 5% range not 8% - 10% and only if the mfr doesn't have better options to invest in.

You know me, I'd be all for a Falcon/T'bird/ Lincoln Continental but the figures must add up, my concern is that a new age "Falcon" would simply steal sales from the RHD Mustang but I could be wrong if indeed it expands sales for both..that's problem to many unknowns when it easier to invest in other products with higher chance of success.

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The decay of sedans is not current. It began when they had the third volume diminished; Then the charm of the sedans was lost. Today it is no longer the proportion of the beautiful sedans of the 80s and 90s. Are all with the short back and inclined ceiling imitating a coupé

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5 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Depends on the company. If ford keeps up this whole chasing margin by any means necessary thing they’re doing then I can absolutely see them cutting sub-compact utilities eventually. 

If Hackett the Hatchet lasts long enough... Hopefully he'll be gone sooner, rather than later. In 33 years, I've never seen the company such a mess and it ran the best under Alan Mulally, one of the few CEO's that actually lead the company successfully. He got rid of the divisions that the Company couldn't afford to support with the product development costs, etc., refocused the Company from the top down, etc. The "One Ford" approach was right at that time. Mark Fields forgot everything that Mulally taught him and went back to the traditional career path about protecting one's tush, bonuses, etc. They all forgot about doing what's right for the Company and/or its customers. Now we have Hackett who's greatest achievement is destroying what credibility there was on Wall Street. Pie-in-the-sky wish lists, white space vehicles that no one understands and little progress in meeting the objectives he put forth. Patience has worn thin!

Manufacturing and transportation logistics are the worst ever. Some model order guides have helped simplify the ordering process but the constantly changing commodity issues keep getting worse. The new ordering process for Escape and Fusion was supposed to help eliminate the commodity issues because all of a Dealer's allocation would be scheduled at the beginning of the scheduling cycle, giving the Company that much more lead time to make sure it could build what Dealers were ordering. Well, those commodity issues still exist!

We're now in the 2nd month of it being impossible to order and schedule Mustang Convertibles or any Premium Mustang's with either the #201A (EcoBoost) or #401A (GT) packages. Our store's Mustang sales are about 80% GT's. We sold our last 2019 Mustang GT Premium Convertible over the Christmas holiday period and want to replace that car and get an additional GT Premium Convertible for the spring market. Why would anyone in manufacturing or product planning ever think that Dealers would want convertibles for the spring and summer?

Logistics and OTD (Order to Delivery) is another mess. We have a 2019 Flex SE FWD that's been sitting at the plant for 3 1/2 months and no one at Ford will respond to our inquiries. The fleet customer cancelled a week ago and last week the vehicle status finally changed from "Produced" to "Awaiting Shipping" but there have been no further status updates in 5 days now. We'll now be stuck with a vehicle that will be nearly impossible to sell and paying floorplan inventory costs!

Sorry to vent here but your message struck a chord Fuzzy and just wanted to share the frustration!

Thanks! 

 

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Good luck getting a Mustang in general any time soon with the steering wheel shortage that's supposed to last until sometime in MARCH. Around 8000 cars in total on top of the 3000 Explorers sitting at FRAP now with missing steering wheels. 

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39 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Good luck getting a Mustang in general any time soon with the steering wheel shortage that's supposed to last until sometime in MARCH. Around 8000 cars in total on top of the 3000 Explorers sitting at FRAP now with missing steering wheels. 

How does this happen!!!:swear:

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5 minutes ago, danglin said:

How does this happen!!!:swear:

Well for 1 the Flat Rock Plant is the WORST for parts shortages. It's hilarious how often my buddy will text me saying they’re down waiting on parts or sent home early for parts shortages.

This one feels different though. I personally believe this has something to do with that massive strike down in Mexico that the media hasn't really talked about. 

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1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Good luck getting a Mustang in general any time soon with the steering wheel shortage that's supposed to last until sometime in MARCH. Around 8000 cars in total on top of the 3000 Explorers sitting at FRAP now with missing steering wheels. 

Wow.  And everyone was bashing Elon Musk at Tesla for complaining about production hell and how inexperienced he was building cars.  Tough to fault him if Ford can't get it right after 100+ years. 

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29 minutes ago, msm859 said:

Wow.  And everyone was bashing Elon Musk at Tesla for complaining about production hell and how inexperienced he was building cars.  Tough to fault him if Ford can't get it right after 100+ years. 

The supplier went on strike.  Could happen to any mfr.

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14 minutes ago, akirby said:

The supplier went on strike.  Could happen to any mfr.

For the record, that's my theory. I haven't been able to confirm it. 

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5 hours ago, msm859 said:

Not exactly.  The one exception missing from this article was the Tesla Model 3.  In 2017 they sold less then 2000.  In 2018 they sold over 145,000 Model 3's.  It is probably a fair assumption that Tesla took sales away from a lot of other sedans - perhaps most notably BMW.  So there is room for sedans.  

Actually the Toyota Prius is the number 1 vehicle the Model 3 is replacing.

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1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:

Actually the Toyota Prius is the number 1 vehicle the Model 3 is replacing.

Like BMW 3-Series, Toyota Prius saw a major decline in U.S. sales for 2018. Down 19% compared to 2017. Incumbent automakers should take Tesla very seriously.

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3 hours ago, msm859 said:

Wow.  And everyone was bashing Elon Musk at Tesla for complaining about production hell and how inexperienced he was building cars.  Tough to fault him if Ford can't get it right after 100+ years. 

The difference is that Ford won't go broke not building Mustangs, but Tesla will go broke if it's forced to build the actual buyer product mix.

 

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13 hours ago, RadicalX said:

The decay of sedans is not current. It began when they had the third volume diminished; Then the charm of the sedans was lost. Today it is no longer the proportion of the beautiful sedans of the 80s and 90s. Are all with the short back and inclined ceiling imitating a coupé

So, what you are saying is the coupes are making a comeback?? Awww YEAH!!!!! Gonna go get me a mullet and polyester suit and cruise on down to the local Shoneys with the spouse and 2.5 kids....

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9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

Like BMW 3-Series, Toyota Prius saw a major decline in U.S. sales for 2018. Down 19% compared to 2017. Incumbent automakers should take Tesla very seriously.

Lets see how Tesla does without tax breaks.

My wife's supervisor got a Model 3 and the only reason he could afford it was all the tax breaks on it vs getting another Accord. 

I know NJ doesn't have sales tax on electric power cars, so for a $51K Model 3, that is savings of $3570 bucks vs roughly an $2500 increase on a top of the line Accord Sport and no $7500 tax deduction. 

Lets see if Telsa can actually turn a profit to without selling carbon credits-GM is a great example of selling lots of cars and not making $$$

 

 

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23 hours ago, rperez817 said:

Good point msm859 sir. Tesla Model 3 was the best selling domestic brand car in the 4th quarter of 2018.

I think the article left out Tesla Model 3 from the mass market midsize sedan numbers because Model 3 is considered a compact luxury sedan. You are correct that Tesla ate into BMW sales big time. U.S. BMW 3-Series sales in 2018 were down 25% compared to 2017.

This is more of a  last man standing win as car buyers desert the segment..

 

 

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