Fallacy of Electrics

[jasonj80]

8 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

knock on wood my Fusion HEV has 215K on it....

Hybrid CVTs are completely different, I’ve been in Fusion Uber and Lyfts with well over 300k and one was almost 500k on the original transmission.

 

 

I was referring to Nissan CVTs which basically total the vehicle when they fail at 125000-150000. Honda and Toyota CVTs don’t seem to fail at the same rate and even when they do are thousands cheaper than for a used one than a Nissan replacement. 
 

 

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:

I was referring to Nissan CVTs which basically total the vehicle when they fail at 125000-150000. Honda and Toyota CVTs don’t seem to fail at the same rate and even when they do are thousands cheaper than for a used one than a Nissan replacement. 

 

Yeah I've heard horror stories about their CVTs

 

[akirby]

7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Fortunately the Hybrid CVT is a completely different animal to the the early mechanical CVT.

And pretty much bulletproof

[Flying68]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Yeah I've heard horror stories about their CVTs

 

We had a 2006 Nissan Murano.  We had 146,000 miles on it before we traded it.  Never missed a 30,000 mile transmission service.  It was actually cooling issues that pushed me to finally want to get rid of it, but I knew the CVT was going to be a concern going forward.  Early on, our service advisor (whom I knew when he worked at the Lincoln dealer, both were in the same dealer group at the time) stressed the importance of never missing a service on the CVT as they had several that bombed before 60,000 miles because the owners didn't get the fluids changed on time.

[jpd80]

In the last four quarters, Tesla’s total EBIT was over $15 billion exceeding Ford,

remembering that Ford will take a huge loss on its Rivian stock in Q1.

 

Whatever Ford’s plans are with ICE and electric vehicles, it needs to get going because Tesla is spreading out around the world and expanding deliveries in North America and Europe. It now has cash and cash equivalents at $15 billion, so electrics are really paying off. Musk’s KPI achieved now means that he’s just earned another $23 billion in stock.

Edited April 22, 2022 by jpd80

[sippy12]

This thread is ineteresting.

 

I.... like most think BEV as we have today...are not the answer for the masses.  After reading here about SS batteries makes me think there may be tech that comes that makes BEV more viable. But at the end of the day...I am in the camp.... to be fossil fuel free...we need to also look at how/where the electricity is produced. Right now 60% comes from fossil fuel. We must hope the current tech is only a stepping stone to greater things.

 

I will add...I would own an electric vehicle  as a non-primary car to drive and play with from a performance standpoint. The acceleration and braking power is off the charts!  

[AlexK1024]

Finally somebody touched on the used car market issue. I felt like I was the only one. To touch on another related point, used car prices will also end up higher unless they can figure out how to build EVs more cheaply. What is the person who can hardly afford their beater supposed to do when it finally kicks the bucket?

[FordBuyer]

7 hours ago, sippy12 said:

This thread is ineteresting.

 

I.... like most think BEV as we have today...are not the answer for the masses.  After reading here about SS batteries makes me think there may be tech that comes that makes BEV more viable. But at the end of the day...I am in the camp.... to be fossil fuel free...we need to also look at how/where the electricity is produced. Right now 60% comes from fossil fuel. We must hope the current tech is only a stepping stone to greater things.

 

I will add...I would own an electric vehicle  as a non-primary car to drive and play with from a performance standpoint. The acceleration and braking power is off the charts!  

 

The answer seems to be solid state batteries, more clean energy, hydrogen powered combustion engines, and synthetic fuel. Then we are getting to a good place. Thousand pound batteries full of mined, exotic metals is just a starting point. If the above doesn't happen, then we will not get where we need to be. 

[ehaase]

6 hours ago, AlexK1024 said:

What is the person who can hardly afford their beater supposed to do when it finally kicks the bucket?

 

I don't think the upper and upper middle class care, except Mayor Pete says just use mass transit. 

[Deanh]

think theres supply issues know...with everyone jumping on the :"flavor of the month"...mark my words....BATTERY SHORTAGES.....LMAO....get ready for addendums galore!

[jasonj80]

6 hours ago, AlexK1024 said:

What is the person who can hardly afford their beater supposed to do when it finally kicks the bucket?

Get another one like they would now, eventually electric vehicles will become beaters as well. 

As battery costs fall in line EV's will be cheaper than an equivalent gas model, they are far simpler vehicles. Battery cost parity was forecast around 2024-2026 and post 2028 costs will be less. As for long term profitability and margins for electric; those will resemble the current market once things stabilize in mid to late decade, with so many players the idea of long term 30% margins is impossible. That is the drive for the subscription and reoccurring revenue streams, even some hardware upgrades for existing vehicles will improve profit margins at the company. 

 

[silvrsvt]

19 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:

As battery costs fall in line EV's will be cheaper than an equivalent gas model, they are far simpler vehicles. Battery cost parity was forecast around 2024-2026 and post 2028 costs will be less. As for long term profitability and margins for electric; those will resemble the current market once things stabilize in mid to late decade, with so many players the idea of long term 30% margins is impossible. That is the drive for the subscription and reoccurring revenue streams, even some hardware upgrades for existing vehicles will improve profit margins at the company. 

 

I wonder if a reconditing service would ever be viable for Companies to offer for older BEVs. Once the tech settles down (ie 400v vs 800vc systems), companies can replace batteries and maybe offer upgraded motors in a 10-15 year old BEV for say 10-15K or even less.  

[jasonj80]

24 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I wonder if a reconditing service would ever be viable for Companies to offer for older BEVs. Once the tech settles down (ie 400v vs 800vc systems), companies can replace batteries and maybe offer upgraded motors in a 10-15 year old BEV for say 10-15K or even less.  

If not from OEM's the aftermarket will jump at that. "remanufactured battery packs" will be a huge industry.

[fuzzymoomoo]

1 hour ago, ehaase said:

 

I don't think the upper and upper middle class care, except Mayor Pete says just use mass transit. 

Um, excuse me, that's Secretary Mayor Pete to you! 

[mackinaw]

2 hours ago, jasonj80 said:

As battery costs fall in line EV's will be cheaper than an equivalent gas model, they are far simpler vehicles. Battery cost parity was forecast around 2024-2026 and post 2028 costs will be less......

 

Not if lithium costs keep going up.  From yesterday's Autoline Daily.  Go to the 1:05 mark.  Not a particularly rosy picture for batteries.

 

http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=81364

[Deanh]

next up...Electric Ranger....

[jasonj80]

21 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

 

Not if lithium costs keep going up.  From yesterday's Autoline Daily.  Go to the 1:05 mark.  Not a particularly rosy picture for batteries.

 

http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=81364

Why I said "was", like most commodities the price will shoot up in the short term and then collapse as more comes online. There are known lithium deposits, just need to get those mines up and running which will happen late 2023/2024 time frame as many are in the works. 

[jasonj80]

31 minutes ago, Deanh said:

next up...Electric Ranger....

Made in Tennessee. 

https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/ford-ceo-jim-farley-new-plant-tennessee-build-another-truck-thats-not-f-150-lightning

Edited April 26, 2022 by jasonj80

[jpd80]

46 minutes ago, Deanh said:

next up...Electric Ranger....

Expat Aussie Trevor Worthington is in charge of the whole T6 program and has confirmed that the design includes hybrid, PHEV and BEV…..whatever is required.

 

Whats that movie, batteries not included?

[slemke]

2 hours ago, jasonj80 said:

Why I said "was", like most commodities the price will shoot up in the short term and then collapse as more comes online. There are known lithium deposits, just need to get those mines up and running which will happen late 2023/2024 time frame as many are in the works. 

It isn’t just lithium.  Nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements for motor magnets all are facing upward pressure.  Depending on environmental issues with permits for mines, we may not see a large scale increase and need to find alternative materials.  Tesla already uses LiFePo4 batteries in the standard range 3 to cut costs.  I’m sure others will follow.  They have a lower energy density, but greater charge cycle count for a lower cost.

[slemke]

5 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I wonder if a reconditing service would ever be viable for Companies to offer for older BEVs. Once the tech settles down (ie 400v vs 800vc systems), companies can replace batteries and maybe offer upgraded motors in a 10-15 year old BEV for say 10-15K or even less.  

Certainly.  Similar to getting a remanufactured engine or transmission now.  The battery packs themselves are made up of 100s or 1000s of cells.  It will be those individual cells that will be replaced on an as needed basis.  No need to wait for the technology to settle down.  Just keep the specs within tolerance.

 

People are buying the battery packs now to harvest the cells and create their own power walls or refurbish power tool and outdoor power equipment batteries.

[silvrsvt]

The same issues that face lithium are the same issues that oil has…just the long term pricing hasn’t settled down yet. 
 

what your trying to say is oh gas is going to be $4-5 a gallon in 2022 four years ago, we better quit making ICE engines because they will be too expensive….

[rmc523]

On 4/26/2022 at 5:09 PM, silvrsvt said:

 

I wonder if a reconditing service would ever be viable for Companies to offer for older BEVs. Once the tech settles down (ie 400v vs 800vc systems), companies can replace batteries and maybe offer upgraded motors in a 10-15 year old BEV for say 10-15K or even less.  

 

Yeah, that's definitely a question mark of longevity of batteries.  And if it can be done profitably, there will definitely be someone to come in and fill that gap of replacing packs.

[Bob Rosadini]

When we talk about the plentiful supply of lithium, cobalt etc etc,  just where are all these rare resources?  Or better yet, how many are in the US?  Or in countries that we can call "friends"?

[silvrsvt]

20 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

When we talk about the plentiful supply of lithium, cobalt etc etc,  just where are all these rare resources?  Or better yet, how many are in the US?  Or in countries that we can call "friends"?

 

Not sure how much of a "real" issue it is going to be...lots of this seems to be throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks to keep cars on oil, which is finite item also, but just happens to have a well heeled group backing it.

 

Battery tech is constantly changing and I'm sure engineers are already aware of possible shortages and are looking at alternative  materials to use to make impacts minimal.