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California shakes up auto industry, says all vans and trucks must be electric by 2024

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2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

2030 model year for 100% electric passenger cars and light trucks is well within the realm of existing product development cycles at automakers. It's good that Washington state established that benchmark. Next step for Washington state (and other governments all around the world) is to establish a firm target for phasing out the sale medium and heavy duty trucks and vans.

 

With all the uncertainty in the world right now, I don't see how any firm targets can be established on anything. Only goals. We are well into 2022 now, and we seem to be moving farther away from normality, not closer. So IMO firm targets are meaningless. 

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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

2030 model year for 100% electric passenger cars and light trucks is well within the realm of existing product development cycles at automakers. It's good that Washington state established that benchmark. Next step for Washington state (and other governments all around the world) is to establish a firm target for phasing out the sale medium and heavy duty trucks and vans.

Screw Washington state.  Who the hell made them arbritor over the rest of the country?  I'm sure this mandate will be overturned in the courts or by the next administration. 

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2 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

With all the uncertainty in the world right now, I don't see how any firm targets can be established on anything. Only goals. We are well into 2022 now, and we seem to be moving farther away from normality, not closer. So IMO firm targets are meaningless. 

 

For example, Dominion Utility in Virginia wants to build a massive multi billion dollar wind farm along the Virginia shore to meet its renewable target percentage. However, the attorney general of Virginia is taking Dominion to court in trying to delay or stop the project.

 

Moreover, all electric cars can't help much if all their energy comes from fossil fuel power plants. That is why in the interim hybrids are the sweet spot in this market.....use up to 50% less fuel and 50% cleaner than conventional ICE.

 

It will take decades for the power grid to transition to 100% renewables. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

2030 model year for 100% electric passenger cars and light trucks is well within the realm of existing product development cycles at automakers. It's good that Washington state established that benchmark. Next step for Washington state (and other governments all around the world) is to establish a firm target for phasing out the sale of ICE powered medium and heavy duty trucks and vans.

 

No.  It isn't.  While maybe theoretically possible, it's not reasonable or realistic.

 

That is less than 8 years away.  What you're proposing is automakers shift their ENTIRE operations and factories from one powertrain and platform source to a completely new one in 8 years across the entire lineup.

 

This isn't just a redesign, this is a complete shift - gutting and redoing every single factory for every automaker if they want to offer a full lineup.

 

I guarantee automakers will be forced to offer partial/limited lineups in Washington state in 2030 because they don't have all products switched over yet.

 

2040 is more reasonable in my eyes.  But why bother applying logic and reason when government is involved?  lol

Edited by rmc523

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

No.  It isn't.  While maybe theoretically possible, it's not reasonable or realistic.

 

That is less than 8 years away.  What you're proposing is automakers shift their ENTIRE operations and factories from one powertrain and platform source to a completely new one in 8 years across the entire lineup.

 

This isn't just a redesign, this is a complete shift - gutting and redoing every single factory for every automaker if they want to offer a full lineup.

 

I guarantee automakers will be forced to offer partial/limited lineups in Washington state in 2030 because they don't have all products switched over yet.

 

2040 is more reasonable in my eyes.  But why bother applying logic and reason when government is involved?  lol

thankyou..some common sense...anyone that literally thinks this IS possible within that timeframe has had their lips surgically attached to a GT350 start-up to prove exhaust gasses aren't good for you....same idiots think electric is the answer..NO ITS NOT...and Ill fess Im not sure what is barring a HUGE reduction in human populous. Want to save the Planet...work on that...in the interim GRADUALLY migrate from the sources of pollution you deem necessary to reduce...please note the word GRADUAL, not flick a switch and literally force people/ manufacturers to spend thousands, let alone BILLIONS overnight to appease a narrative being forced down their throats, you want to live like that god bless youbut watch closely, people rebel against lack of their own free choice....watch...happens every time regardless of subject...people reject control freaks, and that's how I see this outcome...

Edited by Deanh

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

No.  It isn't.  While maybe theoretically possible, it's not reasonable or realistic.

 

Ford of Europe already established 2030 as its own target for a 100% electric vehicle lineup. With regions outside of Europe, like Washington State in the U.S., using 2030 as a benchmark for phaseout of ICE powered passenger cars and light trucks, Ford Motor Company is likely to accelerate its plans globally for a 100% electric vehicle lineup. Currently that target is 2035 for what Ford calls "all major markets".

 

FOE CEO Stuart Rowley said that Ford could transition to 100% electric vehicles before 2030 in an Automotive News Europe interview.

Quote

It’s possible that we could move faster. Every time we look at the data, we accelerate our projection. There will be segments that won’t be fully electric [by 2030], but maybe we won’t be participating in those segments.

Edited by rperez817

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Ford of Europe already established 2030 as its own target for a 100% electric vehicle lineup. With regions outside of Europe, like Washington State in the U.S., using 2030 as a benchmark for phaseout of ICE powered passenger cars and light trucks, Ford Motor Company is likely to accelerate its plans globally for a 100% electric vehicle lineup. Currently that target is 2035 for what Ford calls "all major markets".

 

FOE CEO Stuart Rowley said that Ford could transition to 100% electric vehicles before 2030 in an Automotive News Europe interview.

 

For this discussion, I'll exclude the vans, as they'd be equivalent for both sides of the pond as far as EV timeline.

So, aside from the vans, the primary Euro lineup is:

 

Fiesta

Focus

EcoSport (on the way out?)

Puma

Kuga

Ranger

Mustang

Mach E

 

4 of the 8 can fall under the already being worked on MEB deal, and 1 of the 8 is already EV.  So 5/8 are already likely in the works for EV conversion.

 

 

Now let's look at the NA lineup - again, excluding vans (though I'll throw E-series in as it doesn't have a Euro equivalent):

 

Mustang

EcoSport (dead)

Bronco Sport

Escape

Mach E

Edge

Bronco

Explorer

Expedition

Maverick

Ranger

F-Series

Super Duty

Heavy Trucks (650/750)

E-Series

Corsair

Nautilus

Aviator

Navigator

 

You're at 18 models - 2 of which are already EV, and only one of which currently aligns with Euro MEB plans if they continue to keep Escape/Kuga as twins.....MAYBE 2 or 3 if you count BS and Corsair as C2 products.

We know an Explorer/Aviator EV of some sort is in the works, and there are rumors of BEV Expy/Navi by extension of Lightning's platform.  But even if you quantify those "maybes" and rumors alongside the "known" planned ones, you're still at 9 of 18 with no currently known plan for an EV shift.

 

So Euro is at 3 of 8 unknown.

NA is at 9 of 18 unknown.

One shared model is Ranger, so converting it would knock 1 off both tallies, but even so, it's far easier to convert 2 or 3 model lines in Europe than 8 or 9 in the US.

 

And I'm sorry, if these models aren't already in progress, you're not changing ALL 9 of them over in less than 8 years.

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3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

For this discussion, I'll exclude the vans, as they'd be equivalent for both sides of the pond as far as EV timeline.

So, aside from the vans, the primary Euro lineup is:

 

Fiesta

Focus

EcoSport (on the way out?)

Puma

Kuga

Ranger

Mustang

Mach E

 

4 of the 8 can fall under the already being worked on MEB deal, and 1 of the 8 is already EV.  So 5/8 are already likely in the works for EV conversion.

 

 

Now let's look at the NA lineup - again, excluding vans (though I'll throw E-series in as it doesn't have a Euro equivalent):

 

Mustang

EcoSport (dead)

Bronco Sport

Escape

Mach E

Edge

Bronco

Explorer

Expedition

Maverick

Ranger

F-Series

Super Duty

Heavy Trucks (650/750)

E-Series

Corsair

Nautilus

Aviator

Navigator

 

You're at 18 models - 2 of which are already EV, and only one of which currently aligns with Euro MEB plans if they continue to keep Escape/Kuga as twins.....MAYBE 2 or 3 if you count BS and Corsair as C2 products.

We know an Explorer/Aviator EV of some sort is in the works, and there are rumors of BEV Expy/Navi by extension of Lightning's platform.  But even if you quantify those "maybes" and rumors alongside the "known" planned ones, you're still at 9 of 18 with no currently known plan for an EV shift.

 

So Euro is at 3 of 8 unknown.

NA is at 9 of 18 unknown.

One shared model is Ranger, so converting it would knock 1 off both tallies, but even so, it's far easier to convert 2 or 3 model lines in Europe than 8 or 9 in the US.

 

And I'm sorry, if these models aren't already in progress, you're not changing ALL 9 of them over in less than 8 years.


Trying to make a logical argument with this guy is like trying to teach a goldfish how to play piano.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:


Trying to make a logical argument with this guy is like trying to teach a goldfish how to play piano.

 

True, but discussing the issue with the other extreme is tiring as well.

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35 minutes ago, AGR said:

 

True, but discussing the issue with the other extreme is tiring as well.


Who is taking the other extreme?  

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The rapidly rising price of nickel is changing some plans.  Tesla has worked diligently on supply contracts for raw materials and uses lithium iron phosphate cells in the standard range models.  They are less affected than others, but are still raising prices considerably.  This will have consequences as to when if ever BEV reaches price parity with ICE.  LFP batteries are primarily from China, so that doesn’t relieve national security issues, but expect that to change in the future as the materials are more widely available.  More companies will be using them as an alternative to higher priced NMC batteries with shorter range for the same weight.

 

I still think hybrids and plug in hybrids are the way to go for the next decade or two.  Lots of bang for the buck in terms of fuel savings vs materials needed for batteries.  A plug-in hybrid could save 80-90% of fuel (highly dependent on length of trip) with less than 20% of the battery capacity of a full BEV.  A wireless charging pad on the garage floor to keep it charged is effortless.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, rmc523 said:

So Euro is at 3 of 8 unknown.

NA is at 9 of 18 unknown.

One shared model is Ranger, so converting it would knock 1 off both tallies, but even so, it's far easier to convert 2 or 3 model lines in Europe than 8 or 9 in the US.

 

And I'm sorry, if these models aren't already in progress, you're not changing ALL 9 of them over in less than 8 years.

 

Ford globally is making rapid progress addressing one of its weaknesses, namely the lack of in-house BEV talent and expertise. At least 2 former high ranking Tesla engineers now have senior positions in Ford's Model e division. Plus, Ford has partnerships with Rivian, VW, SK Innovation, Redwood Materials, and others for Model e.

 

So there's optimism that Ford has a strategy to transition at least some of the "unknowns" you mentioned to electric one way or another, and do so rapidly. And as the FOE CEO said, there's a possibility that Ford "won’t be participating in those segments" that it is unable to transition to electric.

 

Regulatory actions like the 2030 target for 100% electric new vehicle sales in Washington State can help automakers with future product planning. Ford is in a good position to accelerate its efforts for a 100% electric vehicle lineup globally, moving its own internal target of 2035 for "all major markets" closer to 2030, and maybe even before 2030.

Edited by rperez817

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16 hours ago, akirby said:


Trying to make a logical argument with this guy is like trying to teach a goldfish how to play piano.

hey...apparently they can drive now..,bwahahahahaha...

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5 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Ford globally is making rapid progress addressing one of its weaknesses, namely the lack of in-house BEV talent and expertise. At least 2 former high ranking Tesla engineers now have senior positions in Ford's Model e division. Plus, Ford has partnerships with Rivian, VW, SK Innovation, Redwood Materials, and others for Model e.

 

So there's optimism that Ford has a strategy to transition at least some of the "unknowns" you mentioned to electric one way or another, and do so rapidly. And as the FOE CEO said, there's a possibility that Ford "won’t be participating in those segments" that it is unable to transition to electric.

 

Regulatory actions like the 2030 target for 100% electric new vehicle sales in Washington State can help automakers with future product planning. Ford is in a good position to accelerate its efforts for a 100% electric vehicle lineup globally, moving its own internal target of 2035 for "all major markets" closer to 2030, and maybe even before 2030.

 

This is where defining your terms is so important. I notice that Ford uses the term "electrified vehicles" when bragging about its electric vehicle sales. And we know that Ford means hybrids, plugins, and full electrics when using that term.

 

So when Ford talks about producing 2 million electrics by 2026, it means the full range of electrics, not just BEVs. Now maybe some regions of N.A. will ban the sale of hybrids by 2030, but hybrids and plugins will still be needed much later in this decade. Ford also just patented a hydogen turbo powered hybrid engine it has been developing. 

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4 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

This is where defining your terms is so important. I notice that Ford uses the term "electrified vehicles" when bragging about its electric vehicle sales. And we know that Ford means hybrids, plugins, and full electrics when using that term.

 

Thank you FordBuyer, that's a good point. Ford isn't the only automaker to use the misleading phrase "electrified vehicles" in its press and sales releases. Toyota pulled that BS today in its 1Q 2022 U.S. sales release, claiming that they were the "Number one seller of electrified vehicles for the 89th consecutive quarter" even though Toyota Motor Sales USA hasn't sold any BEV since 2015, shortly after production of RAV4 EV ended. Toyota Motor North America Reports March, First Quarter 2022 US Sales - Toyota USA Newsroom

 

Back to Ford, these are the targets that the company has set so far. The combination of technical advancement, updated regulatory frameworks, and increased customer demand regarding BEV will likely accelerate all of the BEV targets in a few years.

 

"Electrified" vehicles.

  • 2022, 40 electrified vehicle models globally (HEV, PHEV, BEV) 
  • 2024, BEV or PHEV versions introduced for all commercial vehicle models in Europe
  • Mid 2026, entire passenger vehicle range in Europe to be BEV or PHEV
  • 2030, two thirds of Ford's commercial vehicle sales in Europe to be BEV or PHEV

BEV.

  • 2030, entire passenger vehicle range in Europe to be BEV
  • 2030, 40% of global vehicle mix to be BEV (all regions where Ford does business)
  • 2035, entire passenger and commercial vehicle range in all "leading markets" globally to be BEV
  • 2040, 100% of global vehicle mix to be BEV (all regions where Ford does business)

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33 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Ford isn't the only automaker to use the misleading phrase "electrified vehicles" in its press and sales releases.


 

So the truth is misleading now? Cool story, bro. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

So the truth is misleading now? 

 

Correct. Using words and phrases that are simultaneously true and misleading has long been part of automotive marketing, and that hasn't changed. CNET provided a good summary of the misleading nature of the term "electrified vehicles" in particular.

 

Quote

For some time now, car company execs have been making bold proclamations about how many "electrified" models they are bringing to market in order to appear more forward thinking and environmentally conscious. Confusingly for many folks, "electrified" has always been a somewhat intentionally misleading term, because it's one the industry has used to encompass not only pure electric vehicles, but also any model with a hybrid gas-electric powertrain.

Edited by rperez817

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Posted (edited)

I don’t see the problem with legacy automakers like Ford pushing the perception of electrified vehicles, they have a much wider audience than say, Tesla that only sells battery electric vehicles. The point being how do you reach both new and existing return buyers, companies like Ford have an excellent opportunity to sell them a hybrid or PHEV that act is like the ICE they already know but gives better fuel economy, something real world that they notice. Interest in BEVs is ramping up but there’s still a big window for hybrids and PHEVs to influence ICE buyers by showing them the benefits of electrification.

Edited by jpd80

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On 4/1/2022 at 2:25 PM, slemke said:

The rapidly rising price of nickel is changing some plans.  Tesla has worked diligently on supply contracts for raw materials and uses lithium iron phosphate cells in the standard range models.  They are less affected than others, but are still raising prices considerably.  This will have consequences as to when if ever BEV reaches price parity with ICE.  LFP batteries are primarily from China, so that doesn’t relieve national security issues, but expect that to change in the future as the materials are more widely available.  More companies will be using them as an alternative to higher priced NMC batteries with shorter range for the same weight.

 

I still think hybrids and plug in hybrids are the way to go for the next decade or two.  Lots of bang for the buck in terms of fuel savings vs materials needed for batteries.  A plug-in hybrid could save 80-90% of fuel (highly dependent on length of trip) with less than 20% of the battery capacity of a full BEV.  A wireless charging pad on the garage floor to keep it charged is effortless.

The price of nickel spiked because of Chinese billionaire taking a short position, not completely across the story but  the spot price has already come back down a long way so I suspect a lot of the heat in nickel price will subside in the next month or so when this guy is forced to eat his short position….

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Nothing will ever be "Zero Emission"s". We are going to need many more gas and coal fired electric plants to power it all, there is no way around it. I was talking with my Brother-in-law just the other night about it. He manages a large power generation plant. We will have mass rolling brown outs soon if things don't change.

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46 minutes ago, IA Diver said:

Nothing will ever be "Zero Emission"s". We are going to need many more gas and coal fired electric plants to power it all, there is no way around it. I was talking with my Brother-in-law just the other night about it. He manages a large power generation plant. We will have mass rolling brown outs soon if things don't change.

 

Nothing is ever "static" in the energy industry....look at the power generation of say 70 years ago vs how it is today...same goes for distribution. The grid will be improved and it is far easier to control one source of power that is stationary than 100K sources of power that are moving around. Now, that's not to say that I am sold on the idea of EV taking over every sector via government edict, but instead, it will transition via market forces as it become cheaper to adopt out to the EV transportation options.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Interest in BEVs is ramping up but there’s still a big window for hybrids and PHEVs to influence ICE buyers by showing them the benefits of electrification.

 

This goes back to FordBuyer's suggestion about defining "electrified vehicles". Autothink Research in 2019 recommended revising vehicle categorizations for consumer facing communications to emphasize whether a vehicle is ICE dominant or electric motor dominant. See attached table. All hybrid (including plug-in) models in the U.S. market for 2022 model year except Karma GS-6 are ICE dominant.

 

With the revised categories, their conclusion was as follows.

Quote

Hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids may be doing more to delay the consumer transition from ICE vehicles to EVs than to serve as a useful “bridge” or transition facilitator. EVs are now ready for prime time (i.e., as a fully capable substitute for millions of ICE vehicles). Hybrids and Plug-in hybrids (especially the ones offering only 10 – 25 miles of auxiliary electric range) may actually be perpetuating and prolonging the use of internal combustion engines and petroleum more than they are facilitating the transition to all-battery EVs.

autothink.PNG

Edited by rperez817

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9 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I don’t see the problem with legacy automakers like Ford pushing the perception of electrified vehicles, they have a much wider audience than say, Tesla that only sells battery electric vehicles. The point being how do you reach both new and existing return buyers, companies like Ford have an excellent opportunity to sell them a hybrid or PHEV that act is like the ICE they already know but gives better fuel economy, something real world that they notice. Interest in BEVs is ramping up but there’s still a big window for hybrids and PHEVs to influence ICE buyers by showing them the benefits of electrification.

 

Just read an article of experience with new BEV. Between having an older house and buying a Level 2 Charger, it was a long, expensive process. And this from a guy living in Northern CA. So to me anyway, a hybrid, plugin with standard Level 1 Charger makes more sense in 2022. So I would think by 2026 every Ford product will come in hybrid, plugin, and/or BEV form. Especially since 40mpg combined will be the law. 

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Just read an article of experience with new BEV. Between having an older house and buying a Level 2 Charger, it was a long, expensive process. And this from a guy living in Northern CA. So to me anyway, a hybrid, plugin with standard Level 1 Charger makes more sense in 2022. So I would think by 2026 every Ford product will come in hybrid, plugin, and/or BEV form. Especially since 40mpg combined will be the law. 

Exactly and why Ford can still reach more of its return buyers with hybrid or PHEV.

The thing to remember is that  CAFE is the average fuel economy of a company’s fleet,

it’s based on gallons per mile harmonic mean to stop a few highly efficient vehicles 

making up for gas guzzlers (1970s thinking) but throw in enough BEVs and that 40 mpg

target is not so fearful.

Edited by jpd80

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