Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[rperez817]

One of Ford's most innovative features on F-150 Lightning is "Pro Power Onboard" vehicle to vehicle charging. Lightnings with this feature can provide Level 2 charging to other BEV. Lend a Hand – and a Few Miles – to Your Friends Using Vehicle-to-Vehicle Charging on F-150 Lightning, F-150 Hybrid | Ford Media Center

 

With available Pro Power Onboard, the 2022 F-150 Lightning and F-150 PowerBoost Hybrid trucks are high-energy power sources on wheels with multiple uses, thanks to their onboard generators and high-capacity battery systems. Now, Ford is offering another unique benefit to that list: vehicle-to-vehicle charging using the Ford-exclusive Pro Power Onboard 240-volt outlet.

“There are hundreds of benefits to Ford Pro Power Onboard – and we’ve added one more,” said Patrick Soderborg, Ford e-powertrain systems engineer. “Taking power on the road or having extra energy at home brings a lot of convenience and security, and using the F-150 Lightning or F-150 hybrid to top off a friend’s electric vehicle or help them during an outage is one of the many new benefits our customers gain from our Built Ford Tough electrified trucks.”

When connected to an F-150 Lightning or F-150 PowerBoost Hybrid with the optional 9.6 or 7.2 kilowatt Pro Power Onboard1, the Ford Mobile Power Cord charger can deliver Level-2 charging that’s estimated to add an average range of 20 miles per charging hour on a Mustang Mach-E with extended-range battery and rear-wheel drive2. It will add up to 13 miles of charge per hour on the upcoming F-150 Lightning, and will add an average range of 10 miles per charging hour to a Ford E-Transit low-roof cargo van.

Customers can easily take advantage of this capability, using a widely available power adaptor to link the Ford Mobile Power Cord to their truck. Once connected to the 240-volt Pro Power Onboard outlet, customers can use the Mobile Power Cord to charge a range of all-electric vehicles that use the SAE J1772 charge port. This includes the Ford Mustang Mach-E, the Ford E-Transit electric van and the all-new 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup, as well as vehicles from other manufacturers.

 

[silvrsvt]

Ford Explorer, Lincoln Aviator EV Projected Sales Figures Revealed 100K per year

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Ford Explorer, Lincoln Aviator EV Projected Sales Figures Revealed 100K per year

Yeah, I call bullshit on Ford’s sales projections, they really don’t know how interested EV buyers are until reservations open. 
 

I get the reason for giving Mach E production space and Lightning as much battery supply as possible but no way would Ford have any accurate sales projections of BEV Explorer/Aviator………ever wonder why Ford seems constantly surprised at the response to its EVs?

[bzcat]

56 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Yeah, I call bullshit on Ford’s sales projections, they really don’t know how interested EV buyers are until reservations open. 
 

I get the reason for giving Mach E production space and Lightning as much battery supply as possible but no way would Ford have any accurate sales projections of BEV Explorer/Aviator………ever wonder why Ford seems constantly surprised at the response to its EVs?

 

I think current demand on Mach E and Lightning speaks for themselves. 100k annual target is probably under shooting the demand by 50% which is probably why Ford is delaying it. They need to figure out where to build it and how to source parts for it properly. 

 

 

[rperez817]

33 minutes ago, bzcat said:

I think current demand on Mach E and Lightning speaks for themselves. 100k annual target is probably under shooting the demand by 50% which is probably why Ford is delaying it. They need to figure out where to build it and how to source parts for it properly. 

 

Yes sir bzcat. Demand for well designed and engineered BEV from all manufacturers far outstrips supply. Assuming Ford gets BEV production planning, capacity, and sourcing issues worked out (including a much higher level of vertical integration), they are likely to meet their goal of 100% zero emissions vehicles globally years ahead of schedule, which is now set for the year 2040. 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

I think current demand on Mach E and Lightning speaks for themselves. 100k annual target is probably under shooting the demand by 50% which is probably why Ford is delaying it. They need to figure out where to build it and how to source parts for it properly. 

 

 

Current demand for Mach E could be accentuated by too many base models that are not selling or taking a long time to move. I’m glad to be proven wrong but Mach E is a particular buyer who doesn’t want base model, preferring better options/ more loaded personalised builds.

[Deanh]

20 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Current demand for Mach E could be accentuated by too many base models that are not selling or taking a long time to move. I’m glad to be proven wrong but Mach E is a particular buyer who doesn’t want base model, preferring better options/ more loaded personalised builds.

the big take is for the extended range. Irrespective though, regardless of content if we have an order that falls through theres a line waiting. And we were told some time ago, if someone wants to order ...its a minimum of 28 weeks....

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Current demand for Mach E could be accentuated by too many base models that are not selling or taking a long time to move. I’m glad to be proven wrong but Mach E is a particular buyer who doesn’t want base model, preferring better options/ more loaded personalised builds.

 

1 hour ago, Deanh said:

the big take is for the extended range. Irrespective though, regardless of content if we have an order that falls through theres a line waiting. And we were told some time ago, if someone wants to order ...its a minimum of 28 weeks....

 

Given my cursory  look into them there really isn't much in the way of options. Basically RWD Vs AWD and range options. 

 

If I got one, I'd go for AWD ER Select I think its called. Good performance and range. 

[akirby]

Don’t overestimate long term demand vs first year pent up demand.  200k Lightning reservations doesn’t necessarily mean Ford can sell 200k every year.

[jpd80]

15 minutes ago, akirby said:

Don’t overestimate long term demand vs first year pent up demand.  200k Lightning reservations doesn’t necessarily mean Ford can sell 200k every year.

The next few years will give ford ample opportunity to gauge interest, keeping in mind that ford is building Tennessee assembly plant mostly for F150 so it’s expecting significant sales well into the future.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

The next few years will give ford ample opportunity to gauge interest, keeping in mind that ford is building Tennessee assembly plant mostly for F150 so it’s expecting significant sales well into the future.

 

or its just hedging its bets that allow it to not have to run one plant gas while the other retools for electric. This takes alot of pressure off of that and allows expansion of large SUV sales and frees up the Super Duty line because the Expedition and Navigator could move there also. 

 

I'm guessing down the road that BOC will be building something else besides F-150s, because I don't see a huge increase in market share that would require another plant. 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

The next few years will give ford ample opportunity to gauge interest, keeping in mind that ford is building Tennessee assembly plant mostly for F150 so it’s expecting significant sales well into the future.

Well obviously BEV demand will eventually outpace ICE.  I’m just talking about the next 2-3 years.

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

200k Lightning reservations doesn’t necessarily mean Ford can sell 200k every year.

 

Yes sir, but if Ford is unable to reach that sales volume with F-150 Lightning in the next few years, it will be due to supply, sourcing, and production constraints as bzcat mentioned.

 

2 of the hottest segments in the automotive industry nowadays are BEV and pickup trucks, F-150 Lightning is in the enviable position of covering both. That means exceptionally high demand for the vehicle, both pent up demand upon introduction as well as long term demand.

Edited December 22, 2021 by rperez817

[akirby]

Again all I’m saying is the current demand has a plateau and is limited by price, range and charging options.  Even if BEVs weren’t supply constrained they’re not going to sell 10M a year (today) like some of you seem to think.  That will change with next Gen technology and better infrastructure.

[jpd80]

14 minutes ago, akirby said:

Again all I’m saying is the current demand has a plateau and is limited by price, range and charging options.  Even if BEVs weren’t supply constrained they’re not going to sell 10M a year (today) like some of you seem to think.  That will change with next Gen technology and better infrastructure.

Ford actually stopped taking reservations beyond 200,000, they physically cannot make anymore than the 160,000 expected orders.

So yeah, plateauing because Ford simply can’t build enough………

 

70% of reservations are from non-F150 buyers, so I wonder if Lightning will really dent F150 ICE sales in the next three years.

[akirby]

8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Ford actually stopped taking reservations beyond 200,000, they physically cannot make anymore than the 160,000 expected orders.

So yeah, plateauing because Ford simply can’t build enough………

 

70% of reservations are from non-F150 buyers, so I wonder if Lightning will really dent F150 ICE sales in the next three years.

So let’s say they can sell 300k the first year (assume they have the capacity).  Do you really think they’ll sell 300k the following year and the following year?  Or does that 300k represent 80% of potential buyers over the next 3 years given the current technology and price points? 

 

The plateau is a lot higher than current production and reservations.  I’d say they could easily sell a few million with the right products.  But price and charging limitations will naturally limit sales for a few years.

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

So let’s say they can sell 300k the first year (assume they have the capacity).  Do you really think they’ll sell 300k the following year and the following year?

 

Yes sir, if Ford has the production capacity, they could easily achieve double that annual sales rate for F-150 Lightning in the couple years following introduction. There is no "demand plateau" practically speaking for F-150 Lightning.

 

At this point, the major constraints Ford has in terms of achieving 600k or more annual sales rate for F-150 Lightning are all related to production capacity and component supply, particularly the HV batteries those trucks use. Jim Farley said on Jim Cramer's CNBC show that Ford has a dedicated team going all out to address that. F-150 Lightning is Ford's most important new product introduction in the 21st century so far, and Farley is treating it as such.

 

Quote

"We have a dedicated team right now just doing one thing: finding a way to double our capacity by finding batteries, whatever it takes, to double our capacity of Lightning"

Edited December 22, 2021 by rperez817

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, akirby said:

So let’s say they can sell 300k the first year (assume they have the capacity).  Do you really think they’ll sell 300k the following year and the following year?  Or does that 300k represent 80% of potential buyers over the next 3 years given the current technology and price points? 

 

The plateau is a lot higher than current production and reservations.  I’d say they could easily sell a few million with the right products.  But price and charging limitations will naturally limit sales for a few years.

If Ford could produce 300k Lightnings per year, would there still be 1.3 million reservations for cybertruck?

I don’t know the answer to that but what I do know is that those cyber truck buyers will be waiting years before Tesla gets to even a third of that list. When reality hits, those buyers down the list are going to want another truck to lease while they wait, maybe Ford can take advantage of that if they’re quick enough.

Edited December 22, 2021 by jpd80

[FordBuyer]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

If Ford could produce 300k Lightnings per year, would there still be 1.3 million reservations for cybertruck?

I don’t know the answer to that but what I do know is that those cyber truck buyers will be waiting years before Tesla gets to even a third of that list. When reality hits, those buyers down the list are going to want another truck to lease while they wait, maybe Ford can take advantage of that if they’re quick enough.

 

When you look at climate change and resulting extreme weather events that mean millions lose power every year, the F150 power generator is a huge win win. So far no one else has really copied it fully. No truck is more functional than the F150. 

 

Savage Geese just did a review of the 2021 F150 Tremor and called it the best 1/2 ton pickup outthere. And Edmund's just named the F150 the best also. 

 

So Tesla has its work cut out in order to compete against the Lightning as F150 has been the best selling truck for decades, especially contractors who use them for work. The competition is getting tougher and tougher, and Ford knows pickups like no other. Maybe that is why Tesla is having so much trouble getting its truck to market. 

[rmc523]

4 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

When you look at climate change and resulting extreme weather events that mean millions lose power every year, the F150 power generator is a huge win win. So far no one else has really copied it fully. No truck is more functional than the F150. 

 

Savage Geese just did a review of the 2021 F150 Tremor and called it the best 1/2 ton pickup outthere. And Edmund's just named the F150 the best also. 

 

So Tesla has its work cut out in order to compete against the Lightning as F150 has been the best selling truck for decades, especially contractors who use them for work. The competition is getting tougher and tougher, and Ford knows pickups like no other. Maybe that is why Tesla is having so much trouble getting its truck to market. 

I don’t think Tesla is really targeting true truck owners, though.  If they were, they’d have a more traditional shape.

[mackinaw]

45 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

I don’t think Tesla is really targeting true truck owners, though.  If they were, they’d have a more traditional shape.

 

Elon's already hinted that if the Cybertruck flops, they'll bring out a more conventional pickup.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement of their clown pickup.

[rmc523]

17 hours ago, mackinaw said:

 

Elon's already hinted that if the Cybertruck flops, they'll bring out a more conventional pickup.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement of their clown pickup.

 

I think it'll do decently, but it'll be from "ordinary"/regular car/crossover buyers, not truck buyers except for some on the fringes.  It'll sell because of Tesla hype.

Edited December 23, 2021 by rmc523

[rperez817]

57 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

"ordinary"/regular car/crossover buyers, not truck buyers 

 

Those groups are converging. Much if not most of the growth in pickup truck sales to real retail customers in recent years, especially at the high end, are from people who use those trucks mostly like a regular car or crossover. Meaning commuting, personal, and family use rather than for vocational purposes or for activities like off roading. Also, pickup trucks are big time status symbols nowadays.

 

Ford is in a good position here with F-150 Lightning. A survey by Autolist recently showed that F-150 Lightning was #1 for "all-electric truck you are most likely to buy" among these 3 groups. Survey: Ford’s Electric F-150 Pickup Tops Rivals from Tesla, Rivian, GM (autolist.com)

1. Past/current pickup truck owners
2. Past/current BEV owners
3. People who have never owned a pickup truck before

Edited December 23, 2021 by rperez817

[jpd80]

One thing I find particularly interesting is that there’s a lot of overlap with pricing between Mach E and Lightning, how Ford manages those optics will be interesting. No doubt many will be comparing bang for bucks from a full size crew cab pickup to what is a performance compact utility…..thinking more about that, I guess it’s no different to comparing an ICE F150 to a Mustang GT Coupe?

Edited December 23, 2021 by jpd80

[Trader 10]

6 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Those groups are converging. Much if not most of the growth in pickup truck sales to real retail customers in recent years, especially at the high end, are from people who use those trucks mostly like a regular car or crossover. Meaning commuting, personal, and family use rather than for vocational purposes or for activities like off roading. Also, pickup trucks are big time status symbols nowadays.

 

Ford is in a good position here with F-150 Lightning. A survey by Autolist recently showed that F-150 Lightning was #1 for "all-electric truck you are most likely to buy" among these 3 groups. Survey: Ford’s Electric F-150 Pickup Tops Rivals from Tesla, Rivian, GM (autolist.com)

1. Past/current pickup truck owners
2. Past/current BEV owners
3. People who have never owned a pickup truck before

I’m not so sure Lightning is in as good a position as you suggest once the EV Silverado comes out about a year or so after Lightning. The Silverado will be on a dedicated EV platform and will apparently have better range. It will be out 2 to 3 years ahead of the NG Lightning.