Ford delays Explorer, Aviator EVs

[bzcat]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

And now we see the plan changing again as Ford realised that production of EVs are ramping up at a much quicker rate than originally thought. Delaying BEV Explorer and Aviator by 18 months shows just how unprepared they are.

 

They were unprepared by the almost insatiable demand for Mach E. So make sense to delay new products while they work on filling demand for existing products. 

[Oac98]

48 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Do you think Ford could pull the old switcharoo and maybe  move the BEVs to Louisville?

ICE Escape and Corsair still have lots of life left in them. Theyre getting mid cycle refreshes soon so they aren’t going away anytime soon.

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, SoonerLS said:

They make the E-Transit at KCAP alongside the Transit, so I wonder what would prevent them from building a BEV Explorer alongside the ICE Explorer.
 

Maybe that’s where they get additional usage for Flat Rock? 

 

The difference is the E-transit just takes the existing Transit and adds some batteries and EV motors.

 

These Explorer/Aviator EVs are presumably built on a new BEV-oriented platform, otherwise unrelated to the existing ICE Explorer/Aviator.

[rmc523]

Can we merge these two identical threads?

[jpd80]

43 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

They were unprepared by the almost insatiable demand for Mach E. So make sense to delay new products while they work on filling demand for existing products. 

This is what I’ve been saying, Ford had no clue that the interest/demand for its BEVs would already be at such a high level, the plan was to launch and slowly build volume before any major ICE => BEV transitioning occurred. 
 

Kudos to Farley for responding as quickly as he did but you can see how Ford was again mislead by its own intel and completely underestimated the interest in its products. I look forward to your thoughts regarding output from Tennessee post 2024 and what impact that will have  on ICE plants…

 

Also, isn’t BEV Expedition /Navigator being built alongside NG Lightning At  Tennessee?

Could  BEV Explorer/Aviator now be built there too?

Edited December 10, 2021 by jpd80

[bzcat]

 

11 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

This is what I’ve been saying, Ford had no clue that the interest/demand for its BEVs would already be at such a high level, the plan was to launch and slowly build volume before any major ICE => BEV transitioning occurred. 
 

Kudos to Farley for responding as quickly as he did but you can see how Ford was again mislead by its own intel and completely underestimated the interest in its products. I look forward to your thoughts regarding output from Tennessee post 2024 and what impact that will have  on ICE plants…

 

Also, isn’t BEV Expedition /Navigator being built alongside NG Lightning At  Tennessee?

Andcould BEV Explorer/Aviator now be built there too?

 

EV demands are high and all the car companies are seeing the same response/problem - they can't build them fast enough.  Something I've posted before in another thread in which I was called an "EV zealot" for merely pointing out the reality.

 

EV sales are relatively low now because not enough of them are on sale, not because people won't buy them. All the car companies understand this and why they are all quite confident demand for ICE will evaporate pretty fast once they can ramp up BEV production. 

 

[jpd80]

12 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

 

EV demands are high and all the car companies are seeing the same response/problem - they can't build them fast enough.  Something I've posted before in another thread in which I was called an "EV zealot" for merely pointing out the reality.

 

EV sales are relatively low now because not enough of them are on sale, not because people won't buy them. All the car companies understand this and why they are all quite confident demand for ICE will evaporate pretty fast once they can ramp up BEV production. 

 

Exactly.

The idea that there would be a long slow transition was more a “desire” floated by Ford to profit from ICE trucks as long as possible while seeing BEVs as added production and sales, that also comforting  and reassuring ICE buyers.

 

The important thing is that armed with knowledge, Ford is prepared to change, pay more to do that and make a lot of things happen. The fact that Ford is confident that MME is 200k/ year must be a real confidence boost, how long has it been since Ford had this sort of drive and determination….

[bzcat]

The long slow transition narrative was spun by car companies trying to delay EU and Chinese regulations banning ICE. The 2035-40 time frame is basically an industry driven consensus, not a regulatory driven deadline (regulators wanted something much earlier like 2025). Car companies largely agree to 2035-40 because they know they can easily do it and that is what their internal evaluation/projection tell them when ICE sales will trickle down to a low %. Just like when the 2025 CAFE was adopted in the US in 2010, the target they settled on was already one that car companies were on track to meet.

 

Now that the fight is over when ICE phase out will happen, car companies are flipping the script and saying how they can beat it by going all EV by 2030 or 2035. You have to be really gullible to still buying the "wow is me, no one wants to buy EV" line the car companies were saying just 18 months ago. 

 

The truth is that EV demand was always high. Tesla isn't a cult... it's just a car company that really exploited that demand. Mach E demand and Lightning reservation list is tangible proof that if you build it, they will buy. 

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by bzcat

[akirby]

41 minutes ago, bzcat said:

The truth is that EV demand was always high. 

What is “high”?  400k?  1M?  That’s still only 6% of total sales.

 

Stop acting like we’re against EVs just because we see a slightly more gradual transition than you do.  

[rperez817]

27 minutes ago, akirby said:

What is “high”?  

 

"High" was, is, and will be customer demand for BEV that are appealing, technically advanced, and much more than mere regulatory compliance products. Tesla got the ball rolling on that a decade ago with the introduction of Model S, and transformed the entire global automotive industry in the process.

 

Customer awareness of sustainability, public policy, and capital markets have all converged for BEV to become dominant by the end of the decade. The ICE age is finally coming to an end.

[02MustangGT]

3 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Chicago is already at or very close to capacity as it currently runs. 

Wouldn’t BEV Av/Ex replace some volume of current ICE Av/Ex production?   IMO, EV’s in 2024 doesn’t necessarily mean growth in production volume for the nameplate, but rather a replacement for current ICE volume. 

[02MustangGT]

We need another thread on this same topic.  Oh wait. 

[kyle]

I think this is directly related to Biden’s tax incentive for building EV’s in union plants as much as any other reason. 

[jpd80]

56 minutes ago, kyle said:

I think this is directly related to Biden’s tax incentive for building EV’s in union plants as much as any other reason. 

Not when it’s now three years before they make an appearance……

if Ford really wanted to take advantage of incentives, it would have an Explorer

that was  based on Lightning being built at Chicago but here we are……….

Edited December 11, 2021 by jpd80

[ausrutherford]

And Ford's stock was up nearly 10% today...

[rmc523]

2 hours ago, bzcat said:

The long slow transition narrative was spun by car companies trying to delay EU and Chinese regulations banning ICE. The 2035-40 time frame is basically an industry driven consensus, not a regulatory driven deadline (regulators wanted something much earlier like 2025). Car companies largely agree to 2035-40 because they know they can easily do it and that is what their internal evaluation/projection tell them when ICE sales will trickle down to a low %. Just like when the 2025 CAFE was adopted in the US in 2010, the target they settled on was already one that car companies were on track to meet.

 

Now that the fight is over when ICE phase out will happen, car companies are flipping the script and saying how they can beat it by going all EV by 2030 or 2035. You have to be really gullible to still buying the "wow is me, no one wants to buy EV" line the car companies were saying just 18 months ago. 

 

The truth is that EV demand was always high. Tesla isn't a cult... it's just a car company that really exploited that demand. Mach E demand and Lightning reservation list is tangible proof that if you build it, they will buy. 

 

 

A good chunk of Tesla customers are a cult.  But the brand also has exploited demand as the only product in the market.

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, 02MustangGT said:

We need another thread on this same topic.  Oh wait. 

 

I don't know why they haven't been merged yet.  I've asked in both threads lol.

 

 

25 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Not when it’s now three years before they make an appearance……

if Ford really wanted to take advantage of incentives, it would have an Explorer

that was  based on Lightning being built at Chicago but here we are……….

 

Lightning is full size, so an EV based on it would be an EV Expy, not Explorer...

[jpd80]

18 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

I don't know why they haven't been merged yet.  I've asked in both threads lol.

 

 

 

Lightning is full size, so an EV based on it would be an EV Expy, not Explorer...

Correct and sorry for not explaining fully,  I was thinking the bigger battery and electricals

could have found their way into Explorer PHEV for a full electric version…….

Edited December 11, 2021 by jpd80

[AGR]

4 hours ago, akirby said:

What is “high”?  400k?  1M?  That’s still only 6% of total sales.

 

Stop acting like we’re against EVs just because we see a slightly more gradual transition than you do.  

 

Well, when you keep saying that Tesla is essentially going to disappear (among other things), it causes some of us to disregard the rest of your opinions.

[jpd80]

Interesting that Ford expects 200k/year production volume for MME, I’ll be keen to watch that ramp up of sales,

particularly in Europe and China……you don’t have to beat the other guy’s sales, just be profitable.

Edited December 11, 2021 by jpd80

[ice-capades]

7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Interesting that Ford expects 200k/year production volume for MME, I’ll be keen to watch that ramp up of sales,

particularly in Europe and China……you don’t have to beat the other guy’s sales, just be profitable.

 

The weak spot in the Mustang Mach-E lineup is the base Select model. The Select Mach-E's are mostly sitting in dealership inventory and not moving. It's the higher end models with the extended range battery that customers are choosing and willing to pay the price for. 

[twintornados]

51 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

The weak spot in the Mustang Mach-E lineup is the base Select model. The Select Mach-E's are mostly sitting in dealership inventory and not moving. It's the higher end models with the extended range battery that customers are choosing and willing to pay the price for. 

 

Before I bought my 2021 Corsair, I seriously considered a Mach E, but could not find one with the bigger battery.

[akirby]

9 hours ago, AGR said:

 

Well, when you keep saying that Tesla is essentially going to disappear (among other things), it causes some of us to disregard the rest of your opinions.

Excuse me for looking at facts and financial statements instead of the media hype.

[silvrsvt]

I see this as an adjustment to meet demand for current product while spooling up for future product.

 

The other thing is that people have to quit expecting the auto industry to turn on a dime when it comes to making changes. It takes at least 36 months or so to get everything lineup and in production, and that is for something simple like a soft change like a bumper or grill. 

 

Current ICE products are getting MCE changes in the next 12-24 months and will still be in production for at least another five years or so....so we are still looking at 2027 or so before they go away. BEV related products will be out in the next 36 months or less that will be transitional products till full conversion happens around 2030.

Your making it out like the Bronco won't have a ICE engine in 5 years...it will, but the next gen in 2028 or so most likely won't. 

 

Still lots of things have to happen in the next 5 years or so-like investing in more battery plants and better battery designs. 

[ausrutherford]

10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Interesting that Ford expects 200k/year production volume for MME, I’ll be keen to watch that ramp up of sales,

particularly in Europe and China……you don’t have to beat the other guy’s sales, just be profitable.

 

The 200,000+ units is from Mexico alone. It doesn't include China production.That's the huge thing. Ford could see 300,000 Mach-E sales per year.

 

That would be huge.

 

Also worth noting that the Mexican plant NEVER saw these volumes with the Fiesta.