Detroit’s Worst Nightmare: America Losing Interest In Pickups, SUVs - Autoline Exclusives

[Biker16]

Link to report
2025 Market Outlook Report Q1
 

 

[rmc523]

I don't understand the chart in that report....

 

 

 

When considering your next car purchase what are you most likely to choose.....trucks are at 9% in 2023 and 7% in 2024.....yet make up a massive chunk of the market?  How does that make sense?

[Sherminator98]

5 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

I don't understand the chart in that report....

 

 

 

When considering your next car purchase what are you most likely to choose.....trucks are at 9% in 2023 and 7% in 2024.....yet make up a massive chunk of the market?  How does that make sense?

So I’m assuming that this is the retail market vs fleet sales. I’d venture to guess that trucks make up 60-80% of fleet sales. 
 

Also 2-3% increase or decrease is really a stretch when sedan sales are down around 25% over the past 10

years. 

[rmc523]

1 minute ago, Sherminator98 said:

So I’m assuming that this is the retail market vs fleet sales. I’d venture to guess that trucks make up 60-80% of fleet sales. 
 

Also 2-3% increase or decrease is really a stretch when sedan sales are down around 25% over the past 10

years. 

 

The video version may go more into it and "deflate" an inflated headline, but I haven't had a chance to watch.

[Biker16]

35 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

I don't understand the chart in that report....

 

 

 

When considering your next car purchase what are you most likely to choose.....trucks are at 9% in 2023 and 7% in 2024.....yet make up a massive chunk of the market?  How does that make sense?

 
Because this is a consumer survey.

[jpd80]

In other news, affordability and higher prices slow new truck sales….

 

As can be seen by Ford’s recent employee pricing campaign, there are plenty of buyers if the price is right.

[Joe771476]

The first motorized segment to go will be motorcycles. Kids today don't even want to drive cars, let alone motorcycles.

[GearheadGrrrl]

Agreed on the death of motorcycling- I've got nine motorcycles and nine heirs, and only one can ride a motorcycle and he's the oldest!

[GearheadGrrrl]

Back to our subject, pickups and BOF SUVs face existential challenges- 

 

For a start, affordability- And even if you decontent a BOF pickup/SUV down to the barebones they were decades ago, they're still gonna cost more to build than a unit body FWD sedan/hatch.

 

And for the customers that still buy 'em, where ya gonna park 'em? Even in the suburbs garages are shrinking and vehicles have to share them with lawnmowers, snowblowers, etc.. And in the cities? You're lucky to get a driveway.

[Rick73]

Do the numbers for SUVs versus Crossover being so much higher make sense?  Perhaps I’m using different definition to distinguish between them because sales volume would suggest SUVs are not around 7 times as desirable as Crossovers.  Is it possible consumers responding to survey think of crossovers as SUVs?

[Rick73]

10 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

 

For a start, affordability- And even if you decontent a BOF pickup/SUV down to the barebones they were decades ago, they're still gonna cost more to build than a unit body FWD sedan/hatch.

Agree affordability is a major problem, and also that decontenting has limitations because much of the cost is already sunk into the base vehicle.  I think though that if a basic compact pickup was designed and manufactured from the very start to keep price low, it could be much more affordable.  The issue would be that not enough people today would buy a “barebones” pickup similar to a 90s Ranger.  Buyer expectations would have to change first in my opinion.

[akirby]

10 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Back to our subject, pickups and BOF SUVs face existential challenges- 

 

For a start, affordability- And even if you decontent a BOF pickup/SUV down to the barebones they were decades ago, they're still gonna cost more to build than a unit body FWD sedan/hatch.

 

And for the customers that still buy 'em, where ya gonna park 'em? Even in the suburbs garages are shrinking and vehicles have to share them with lawnmowers, snowblowers, etc.. And in the cities? You're lucky to get a driveway.

Parking situation hasn’t changed in the last 20 years.  And prices are self correcting - if sales drop too much then prices will drop.

[akirby]

41 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Do the numbers for SUVs versus Crossover being so much higher make sense?  Perhaps I’m using different definition to distinguish between them because sales volume would suggest SUVs are not around 7 times as desirable as Crossovers.  Is it possible consumers responding to survey think of crossovers as SUVs?

Most of the SUV responders probably meant crossover.  They should have combined them for the survey.  Most buyers don’t know the difference and marketing often calls crossovers SUVs.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Most of the SUV responders probably meant crossover.  They should have combined them for the survey.  Most buyers don’t know the difference and marketing often calls crossovers SUVs.

Yeah, what I assumed given best sellers are RAV4, CR-V and similar.  Just shows that if you ask the wrong question you can’t get the right answer.  In this case I would not read a lot into changes based on only one year’s worth of data anyway.  I would want to compare at least 3 to 5 years’ results to rule out reporting inconsistencies.

 

What’s interesting is that even if crossovers and SUVs were combined, the total number still shows a decline.  If accurate, and I’m not sure to what degree it is, the trend would still suggest a shift from larger and more expensive vehicles (SUVs and trucks) to smaller and cheaper ones (sedans).

 

Affordability is likely the main driver in such a shift, particularly if short term, but concerns over environment may also play a role longer term.  As I’ve expressed previously, buyers will eventually realize and accept that driving very large electric SUVs and pickups is not as environmentally friendly as driving compact ICE and hybrids.  While it won’t happen instantly, in time buyers may associate that the same design features required to make EVs more functional also apply to ICE.  This should only require a little common sense, but unfortunately I believe most people don’t think about these kinds of things at all until exposed to it repeatedly.  Just saying that technology applied to BEVs over last 5~10 years may be starting to influence the types of ICE vehicles people will want in the future; granted at lower level than cost/affordability. 

[GearheadGrrrl]

Average family size has shrunk by about one since the 1950s to about 2.5, so the market for 3 row vehicles is shrinking as families of 5+ become rarer. The need for AWD or 4WD is decreasing too as more Americans are living in cities in the south where mud and snow capability is less important. Americans are still feeding their fantasies by buying jacked up 6+ seat pickups and SUVs, but rising prices are tempering those fantasy motivated buying choices.

[bzcat]

This is sign for car companies to roll out more affordable trucks. I think Ford and others are finding out the upper price limit on fullsize and midsize trucks.

 

I'm very surprised to be honest that with the success that Ford has had on Maverick that no other companies have jumped in (Santa Cruz is more CUV than truck).

[DeluxeStang]

I'm actually kinda excited to see where this leads. People are still very passionate about cars, including a significant portion of young people, but they want things that are smaller, and more affordable. I can see fun, affordable cars with character becoming more of a thing in the near future. 

 

We've reached peak truck size, and probably peak truck cost. People can't afford these things anymore, and they're getting to the point where they quite literally can't fit into a garage or parking space. Something needs to give. 

 

Pretty much all the cool stuff you'll find comes in the form of smaller vehicles anyway. 

[Deanh]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

Parking situation hasn’t changed in the last 20 years.  And prices are self correcting - if sales drop too much then prices will drop.

they have...we had TWO 2023 Expedition Max on the lot...MSRP $93k....brand new 2025 Expy showed up, Platinum....8k CHEAPER...and some seriously NICE upgrades...

[fuzzymoomoo]

15 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

The first motorized segment to go will be motorcycles. Kids today don't even want to drive cars, let alone motorcycles.

Zero interest for me. I know too many people who have been seriously injured and nearly killed riding motorcycles through no fault of their own. One couple I know each lost limbs because someone was driving on the wrong side of the road and forced them off the highway. Another was hit by someone while he was waiting at a red light. Flew 50 feet across a parking lot, shattered his pelvis had a serious concussion, broke his leg in 3 places. He still can’t walk right almost 10 years later.  People drive like absolute morons and it’s not getting any better. 

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Pretty much all the cool stuff you'll find comes in the form of smaller vehicles anyway. 

Vans may not be “cool” to most people, but one exception I wish Ford could address is mid-size van.  Ford Authority reported that Australia will be getting a Transit Custom Trail variant with greater off-road capabilities than standard Custom.  I know there’s been talk of a future Maverick-based van, but perhaps the Custom could have been imported years ago if not for old tariffs (Chicken Tax).  Who knows, maybe the Chicken Tax will go away when tariffs are renegotiated.

https://fordauthority.com/2025/04/ford-transit-custom-trail-debuts-as-off-road-van-for-australia/

 

[markfnc]

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, bzcat said:

This is sign for car companies to roll out more affordable trucks. I think Ford and others are finding out the upper price limit on fullsize and midsize trucks.

 

I'm very surprised to be honest that with the success that Ford has had on Maverick that no other companies have jumped in (Santa Cruz is more CUV than truck).

Think About It, the Maverick is the perfect counterpoint 

in a sea of utilities that all seem rather similar,

it stands out perfectly and is desirable exactly 

because it not like every other compact vehicle 

 

The difficulty with competing wit the Maverick is

that those competitors have to first admit that there 

existing utility sales are not working like they want.

To me, it’s the frog in a pot situation in as much as

Ford’s competitors won’t realise until it’s too late

Edited April 24 by jpd80

[The Handler]

The era of cheap money appears to be coming to an end so it will be interesting to see how they adjust.

[The Handler]

On 4/24/2025 at 12:04 PM, fuzzymoomoo said:

Zero interest for me. I know too many people who have been seriously injured and nearly killed riding motorcycles through no fault of their own. One couple I know each lost limbs because someone was driving on the wrong side of the road and forced them off the highway. Another was hit by someone while he was waiting at a red light. Flew 50 feet across a parking lot, shattered his pelvis had a serious concussion, broke his leg in 3 places. He still can’t walk right almost 10 years later.  People drive like absolute morons and it’s not getting any better. 

Somebody I knew from high school got killed at a red light. He was 23. I think he was engaged, too. There's more important things in life than risking your life on one of those things.

[Captainp4]

Not sure if completely on topic, but I'm curious to see how the new Slate truck does. It checks all the boxes for all the comment sections/forum people that don't want all the "useless" stuff and want a basic/simple/cheap ride. I'm interested because someone finally is doing it, but I'm betting most of the ones clamoring for it will still find a reason to not buy new and wait it out until it's even cheaper used.

Maverick has done well on the ice/hybrid version of affordable so maybe they're on to something. Their presentation was a little sketchy, but so was every other start ups first time in the spot light so................. who knows, something to watch anyway.